奢侈品 Q4 中国区表现回升，关注文化纸节后普遍提价 ——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn | | | | 上市公司数 | 154 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 8,987.57 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 7,726.31 | 1、《关税预期 price in，关注 AI 眼镜 和线下特卖行业机遇》2025-02-10 2、《24 年全球 AI 眼镜销量超 200 万台，嘉益、匠心、索菲亚、台华等 披露业绩预告》2025-01-27 3、《李宁重获中国奥委会合作，海 澜京东奥莱线下特卖供需两旺》 2025-01-20 轻工制造 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 ...

暴利行业持续分化洗牌。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 正所谓，爱美之心，人皆有之。如今，美容护理已越发融入人们的日常生活中，其市场需求持续扩 大。国家统计局数据显示，我国化妆品类零售总额在过去二十多年里呈现稳步提升，2023年达到4,14 2亿元，较2011年增长接近3倍。 但2024年1-11月的情况却有些不同，化妆品类零售总额罕见出现负增长，同比下滑了1.3%，莫非化妆 品生意不好做了？ （来源：Choice终端，制表：市值风云APP） 这组数据背后，其实意味着两层含义，其一是化妆品需求的小幅减少，其二则是行业内卷越发严重。 消费需求越发向头部品牌集中，质量不佳、规模较小、生产不良的尾部企业正逐渐被淘汰出局，一场 席卷整个行业的大洗牌或许正在进行。 动荡过后，仍能留在牌桌上的企业必定各有各的看家本领，今天我们便从美容护理板块前十大市值公 司来一探究竟。 参考申万行业分类及截至2024年12月31日的市值排名，前十大公司分别为爱美客（300896.SZ）、珀 莱雅（603605.SH）、华熙生物（688363.SH）、稳健医疗（300888.SZ）、锦波生物（832982.BJ）、 贝泰妮（30095 ...

Group 1: Meeting Details - The online research meeting was held on January 17, 2025 [1][2][3][4][5][6] - Multiple institutions participated in the online research, including investment firms, securities companies, and asset management companies [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 2: Participating Institutions - A total of 234 institutions were listed as participants in the online research meeting [1][2][3][4][5][6] - Notable participants included major firms such as BlackRock, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 3: Participant Distribution - The majority of participants were from securities and asset management sectors, indicating a strong interest in the research topic [1][2][3][4][5][6] - The distribution of participants included both domestic and international firms, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives [1][2][3][4][5][6]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 01 19 年 月 日 稳健医疗（300888.SZ） 健康消费、医用耗材双轮驱动，期待 2025 年业绩释放 2025 年期待医用耗材+消费品两大业务协同发展，带动业绩释放。1）我们估计 2024Q4 公司收入有望快速增长，带动公司 2024 年收入预计增长 10%~15%/归 母净利润有望增长 30%左右：①消费品业务估计 2024Q4 保持快速增长态势，主 要系公司产品推新、精准营销、高效运营等措施取得成效，未来有望持续。据公司 公告，电商"双十一"活动期间，全棉时代品牌全渠道销售额同比超 20%。②医 疗耗材业务恢复健康增长，2024Q4 并表 GRI 后预计同比高速增长。2）展望 2025 年，我们判断消费品业务基本面强劲表现预计持续，品牌提升、运营提效、渠道 提质共同驱动业务增长；医疗业务收购 GRI 后进一步扩张业务版图，有望拓展海 外业务空间。 健康消费品业务：品牌向上，坚持价值回归，产品及渠道优化有望带动 2025 年 业务销售增长、利润率稳健有升。1）公司目前已经形成线上、线下全覆盖的渠道 布局，持续拓展线下优质门店、关闭低效 ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategic Direction - In 2024, the impact of high base numbers on financial statements from infection protection products has passed, and the medical sector has returned to normalized operations [1] - The company has developed a comprehensive business plan for 2025, focusing on integrated strategies across products, channels, R&D, and brand marketing [1] - The chairman's New Year message emphasized the theme of "Brand Ascendance" and the pursuit of building a "century-old brand" [1][3] Group 2: Core Values and Brand Positioning - The core values of the company prioritize quality over profit, brand over speed, and social value over corporate value [2] - The positioning of the medical consumables is shifting from basic materials to high-end materials, while the All Cotton Era brand focuses exclusively on cotton products [4] Group 3: Market and Sales Strategy - The company aims to open approximately 100 new stores in 2025, enhancing both online and offline sales channels [5] - The medical business will focus on three main channels: overseas expansion, domestic serious medical channels, and consumer medical products [6] - The sanitary napkin market is projected to reach a scale of 100 billion, with the company aiming to become a leading brand in this segment [8] Group 4: Financial Performance and Growth Projections - The medical business's profit margin is expected to improve in 2025 due to enhanced product capabilities and channel expansion [11] - The All Cotton Era brand's membership base exceeded 60 million by the end of 2024, reflecting a 16% growth year-on-year [13][14] Group 5: Collaborative Efforts and Acquisitions - The acquisition of GRI is expected to enhance global operations and create synergies in production, procurement, R&D, and sales [9] - The integration of GRI's resources will support the company's global strategy and improve product quality and efficiency [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Steady Medical (300888.SZ) is experiencing a recovery in its stock performance, with a recent peak price of 44.45 yuan, and emphasizes the company's sustainable growth in its core business areas [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Steady Medical's stock closed at 40.10 yuan, with a decline of 6.68%, and a total market capitalization of 23.351 billion yuan [1] - The stock saw a consecutive increase over four trading days from December 10 to December 13, with respective gains of 0.40%, 8.55%, 2.77%, and 2.07% [1] - On December 16, 2024, the stock reached its highest price of the previous year at 44.45 yuan, closing at 43.26 yuan with a gain of 2.12% [1] Group 2: Research Insights - Tianfeng Securities published a report titled "Steady Medical (300888): All-Cotton Era Sustainable Development, Medical Export Provides New Opportunities," authored by analyst Sun Haiyang [1] - The report states that the public health events' impact on the medical business has passed, and the All-Cotton Era has returned to a healthy and sustainable growth trajectory without sacrificing profit and gross margin [1] - The report identifies that the medical production capacity and brand expansion overseas will provide new development opportunities for the company [1] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted, and Steady Medical has been upgraded to a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price set at 42.36 CNY [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that All Cotton Era's sustainable development and medical exports present new opportunities for growth. The company's differentiation strategy, focusing on 100% cotton products, has led to sustainable growth despite market pressures [1][2]. - The medical segment has seen a recovery from the high base effect of infection protection products, positively impacting brand recognition and sales growth. The acquisition of GRI is expected to enhance production capacity and market access, particularly in the U.S. [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating is adjusted to "Buy" based on improved earnings forecasts and sustainable growth prospects [4]. Company Overview - All Cotton Era has maintained a strong market position through its commitment to high-quality products and effective marketing strategies. The company has adapted tactically to market changes while adhering to its core strategy of "product leadership and operational excellence" [2][4]. Financial Performance - The report projects the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 810.26 million, 1,034.53 million, and 1,268.68 million CNY respectively, with EPS expected to be 1.39, 1.78, and 2.18 CNY per share [4][10]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 8,356.91 million CNY in 2024 to 11,567.06 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of GRI is noted for its strategic significance, providing access to global production bases and enhancing the product line's synergy with All Cotton Era's offerings [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining high product quality and operational efficiency to ensure sustainable sales growth [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's consumer goods business is expected to accelerate growth due to enhanced marketing efforts and industry events, with sales growth for core products exceeding 30% in October and November 2024 [3][4] - The medical segment has returned to normalized growth after the high base effect from pandemic-related products has diminished, and the acquisition of GRI is anticipated to enhance overseas capacity and channel expansion [3][4] Summary by Sections Consumer Segment - The company focuses on 100% cotton products, which has led to a recovery in market share and rapid sales growth for its core product, cotton soft towels. The brand "PurCotton" and "Princess Nais" have shown significant sales increases, with a 41.5% year-on-year growth in October and November [4][5] - The implementation of national standards for cotton soft towels has improved market conditions, and the company has invested in consumer education regarding material differences [5][6] - The company plans to open approximately 100 new stores annually, focusing on enhancing product categories and improving store efficiency to drive profitability [4][30] Medical Segment - The medical business has seen a return to double-digit growth, with a 13.1% increase in revenue in the third quarter, driven by regular medical consumables [30] - The acquisition of GRI is expected to yield synergies in production, sales networks, and product offerings, enhancing profitability in the long term [30][31] - The company has reported a significant increase in sales through online channels, with a 35% growth for the "Princess Nais" brand in the wake of negative events affecting competitors [17][18] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth forecasts for the consumer segment upward, expecting net profits to reach 8.1 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 31.1%, and 15.4% [4][36] - The target price has been adjusted to 43-47 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 24-26x for 2025 [4][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company's consumer goods business is expected to accelerate growth due to enhanced marketing efforts and industry events. Sales growth for the core categories of cotton soft towels and sanitary napkins exceeded 30% in October and November 2024 [3][4]. - The medical segment has returned to normalized growth as the high base effect from pandemic-related products has diminished. The acquisition of GRI is expected to enhance overseas capacity and channel expansion [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue growth forecasts for the consumer business for Q4 2024 and 2025, anticipating a compound annual growth rate of 39.4% for 2024, 31.1% for 2025, and 15.4% for 2026 [4][36]. Summary by Sections Consumer Segment - The company focuses on 100% cotton products, which have seen rapid sales growth. The cotton soft towel category has maintained high growth rates, with online sales increasing by 37% in October and November [5][6]. - The sanitary napkin brand "Nais Princess" has performed well amid negative events in the industry, with online sales growth accelerating to 35% in the same period [17][18]. - The company plans to open approximately 100 new stores annually, focusing on optimizing product categories and improving store efficiency [4][28]. Medical Segment - The medical business has seen a return to double-digit growth, with a 13.1% increase in revenue in Q3 2024. The acquisition of GRI is expected to contribute positively to earnings [30][31]. - The company aims to leverage synergies from the GRI acquisition to enhance production, sales networks, and product offerings [30][31]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 8.1 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][36]. - The target price has been adjusted to 43-47 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 24-26x for 2025 [4][36].