Core Insights - The inflation trend in the U.S. is expected to show resilience by the end of 2025, marking a potential end to the previous slowdown in price growth [1] - The upcoming core CPI data is anticipated to reflect underlying price pressures, with both overall and core CPI expected to rise to 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with market expectations indicating a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [2] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reveal the true inflation levels as these distortions fade [2][7] Monthly Data Recovery - The key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with consensus estimates predicting a rise to 0.3% for both overall and core inflation indices [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant rebound in December's core CPI, projecting a month-over-month increase of 0.36%, well above the average of 0.08% seen in October and November [5] Statistical Distortions - The potential strength in inflation data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection and led to artificially low November figures [7] - The December CPI data is expected to correct for statistical biases caused by the government shutdown, which affected housing data and resulted in an underestimation of inflation [7][12] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists predict noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with expectations of accelerated inflation in food, core goods, and core services [8] - However, some analysts anticipate only moderate increases in owners' equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation data [8] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflationary pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related impacts, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [8][9] - Concerns have been raised about a potential wave of price increases related to tariffs in early 2026, as businesses signal intentions to transfer higher costs to consumers [9] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as inflation remains above the 2% target, with overall CPI readings fluctuating between 2.3% and 3.0% [10] - Market predictions suggest that the Fed may remain inactive in terms of rate cuts unless there is a significant drop in inflation in the first quarter [10] Market Reaction Predictions - Morgan Stanley has developed a predictive matrix for the core CPI month-over-month rate and its potential impact on the S&P 500 index, indicating various scenarios based on CPI outcomes [11][13] - The forex market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data, particularly the USD/JPY exchange rate, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. economic data [11][16]

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, consumer loan products are being offered at historically low annual interest rates, with some banks providing rates as low as 2.00% when subsidies are applied, and loan amounts reaching up to 2 million yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Products - Several banks have introduced promotional policies for consumer loans in January 2026, with one bank announcing a maximum loan amount of 2 million yuan and a minimum annual interest rate of 3.00% [2]. - A city commercial bank has set a minimum interest rate of 3.00% for new customers, with a maximum loan amount of 300,000 yuan, and interest rates ranging from 3.00% to 19.80% based on actual approval results [2][3]. - The minimum annual interest rate for consumer loans is currently at 3.00%, which is the lowest level mandated by regulatory requirements, down from a previous low of 2.60% [2][3]. Group 2: Subsidy Policies - With the addition of consumer loan subsidies, the effective annual interest rate can be reduced to as low as 2.00%, although the subsidy process requires specific conditions such as having a consumption scenario and relevant documentation [4]. - The Chinese government is continuing its consumer loan subsidy policies into 2026, as outlined in a recent State Council meeting aimed at promoting domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and financial policies [4]. - The subsidy policy includes a 1% annual interest rate subsidy for loans under 50,000 yuan and up to 50% of the loan contract interest rate for larger loans in key consumption areas such as home appliances, education, and healthcare [4].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season for major U.S. companies is expected to show stronger-than-anticipated results, particularly for the S&P 500 index, with analysts predicting earnings growth may exceed current market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Sector Insights - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase are set to report their Q4 2025 earnings, with expectations of a robust performance despite challenges such as narrowing interest margins [2]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and HSBC suggest that the anticipated earnings growth for the S&P 500 may be underestimated, with actual results likely to surprise positively [1][2]. - Moody's forecasts that global banks will show stronger Q4 performance compared to the previous year, driven by stable growth in debt underwriting and stock trading revenues [2]. Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - Following the financial sector, major tech companies like Netflix, Intel, Apple, and Microsoft are scheduled to release their earnings, with a focus on the impact of AI on profitability [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant slowdown in capital expenditure growth for large data centers, which may affect tech earnings in Q4 [3]. - HSBC highlights that the expectations for the "Tech Seven" and other sectors are set high, with AI spending and growth momentum being critical observation points for this earnings season [3].

Group 1 - The proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap by President Trump could significantly impact the banking sector and extend to consumer-related industries such as airlines and retail, potentially forcing consumers to seek higher-cost borrowing options [1][2] - Issuing banks may adopt multiple strategies to mitigate the pressure from the interest rate cap, including increasing fees, reducing consumer rewards, cutting operational expenses, and tightening credit limits, especially if the policy becomes permanent [1][2] - There is considerable doubt about the feasibility of implementing this cap, as previous attempts have failed, and analysts suggest that legislative action from Congress may be required [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that credit card companies' book values could suffer significant declines, with potential drops of 20% to 40% for certain firms under the temporary cap [3][4] - The impact on earnings per share for major credit card issuers could be severe, with estimates suggesting a 10% decline for Citigroup by 2026, while other banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America may see smaller impacts ranging from -1% to -4% [2][3] - The stock market has already reacted to these risks, with companies that have a higher proportion of low-score borrowers experiencing the largest declines in stock prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates by President Trump could significantly impact the banking sector and extend to consumer-related industries such as airlines and retail, potentially forcing consumers to seek higher-cost borrowing alternatives [1][2] Group 1: Impact on Credit Card Issuers - Credit card issuers may respond to the interest rate cap by increasing fees, reducing consumer rewards, cutting operational costs, and tightening credit limits, especially if the cap becomes permanent [1][2] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that under the temporary cap, the book value of companies like Bread Financial, Synchrony Financial, and American Express could decline by 20% to 40% [3] - The impact on earnings per share for major credit card companies could be severe, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 80% for American Express and 60% for Citigroup [3] Group 2: Broader Economic Implications - The credit card industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, which is approximately 70% driven by consumer spending, with credit card spending accounting for just over 20% [2] - A tightening of credit by issuers could lead consumers to turn to less regulated and more expensive lending options, such as payday loans [1][2] - The potential for reduced credit availability could have a cascading effect on industries reliant on credit card revenue, particularly airlines and retail [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Stock prices of companies with a higher proportion of low-credit borrowers have already begun to reflect the risks, with significant declines observed in shares of Bread Financial, Synchrony Financial, and others [4] - Major banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan also experienced stock price drops, indicating market concerns over the proposed policy's implications [4] - Analysts note that while the event's impact is broad, the likelihood of the cap being implemented remains low, but uncertainty in the industry has increased significantly [4]

哈内特：通常这个时候应该是卖出的时候……但这次 不是。 泰勒·德登 2026年1⽉11⽇，星期⽇，上午8:15 鉴于特朗普的" 格陵兰新政 "引发热议，美国银⾏的迈克尔·哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）在其今年 的⾸期Flow Show节⽬（仅限专业订阅⽤⼾收听）中，⾸先讨论了此前被认为不可想象的事件：美 国接管这个⾄关重要的北极国家。他指出，格陵兰银⾏的股票在过去四天内上涨了33%（据推测， 这是因为市场越来越相信特朗普会向该国5万公⺠提供资⾦，以拉拢他们倒向美国）。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 ……并指出 投资者正在追逐地缘政治对冲⻛险，并抢先在全球能源和材料储备竞赛中占据先 机 （委内瑞拉占全球已探明⽯油储量的17%，即3000亿桶；北极地区占全球未探明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming bond issuance by Wall Street's financial giants is expected to be significantly larger than in previous periods due to pressure from the Trump administration, which may lead to a liquidity drain from the market and potential corrections in the stock and corporate bond markets [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Wall Street's "Big Six" financial giants, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, are anticipated to lead a busy investment-grade bond issuance week, with estimates around $60 billion [2]. - Barclays predicts that approximately $35 billion of bond issuance this month will come from these six financial giants, potentially rising to $55 billion by the end of the quarter [1][2]. - The issuance of high-rated bonds often creates short-term "supply pressure," which can tighten financial conditions and lead to a technical rise in credit spreads and liquidity premiums in the bond market [2]. Group 2: Impact of Regulatory Changes - Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% could significantly impact the profitability of the "Big Six," prompting them to issue bonds to cover potential losses from this regulatory pressure [4][5]. - The credit card business is a major profit center for these banks, with current rates around 21%, and a cap would compress their margins significantly [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that if the cap is implemented, banks may respond by tightening credit, reducing limits, or increasing fees, which could lead to a contraction in supply and a recovery of profitability pressure [6]. Group 3: Earnings Season and Market Expectations - The earnings season for major Wall Street banks is set to begin, with expectations that they will demonstrate strong performance, which is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook for the S&P 500 index in 2026 [3][8]. - Analysts predict that the "Big Six" will collectively report profits of up to $157 billion in 2025, marking the second-highest annual profit in history [7]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a constructive outlook for the banking sector, with expectations of continued growth in net interest income (NII) and resilience in capital markets and wealth management fees [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming bond issuance by Wall Street's financial giants is expected to be larger than usual due to pressures from the Trump administration, potentially draining market liquidity and leading to a correction in the currently high-performing corporate bond and stock markets [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Market Impact - Wall Street's six major financial institutions are anticipated to lead a significant bond issuance, with estimates of around $60 billion this week, driven by the need to respond to operational pressures from the Trump administration [1][2]. - Barclays predicts that approximately $35 billion of bond issuance will come from these six financial giants this month, with the total potentially rising to $55 billion by the end of the quarter [1]. - The large-scale bond issuance may create short-term "supply pressure," tightening financial conditions and impacting credit spreads and liquidity premiums in the bond market [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Earnings Season - The earnings season for major Wall Street banks is set to begin, with analysts expecting a strong performance that could validate the bullish outlook for the S&P 500 index, projected to reach 8,000 points in 2026 [3]. - The financial giants are expected to report robust earnings, driven by a recovery in investment banking and increased trading volumes, which have pushed their stock prices to historical highs [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Pressures and Credit Card Rates - President Trump has called for a cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, which could significantly impact the profitability of Wall Street's financial giants, particularly in their credit card businesses [4][5]. - The proposed cap is seen as a direct threat to the high-margin credit card business, which typically has interest rates around 21%, and could lead banks to tighten credit and reduce customer benefits [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Analysts expect that the demand for bank credit assets will remain strong, offsetting any supply reductions due to regulatory changes, with a projected issuance of approximately $188 billion in high-rated bonds by the six major banks in 2026, a 7% increase from the previous year [7][8]. - The outlook for the banking sector is constructive, with expectations of a recovery in net interest income (NII) and stable growth in capital markets and wealth management fees, which could support a positive operating leverage [9][10].

The fourth-quarter earnings season gets underway this week with the big banks set to report. BAC stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. The Big Six are expected to showcase a rebound in investment banking fees fueled by a 42% year-over-year surge in global M&A activity, according to Dealogic. Here's a look at the earnings calendar for the week ahead: Tuesday, Jan. 13Before Market Open:JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) kicks off the fourth-quarter earnings season with its report set to be releas ...

Market Overview - US stock futures are slightly lower as investors prepare for a significant inflation report and JPMorgan's earnings results, marking the start of the fourth quarter earnings season [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures decreased by 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures remained near flat [1] Inflation Data - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report is crucial for understanding inflation trends, especially after disruptions caused by a government shutdown [2] - The December CPI is anticipated to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7% and a monthly rate of 0.3%, indicating steady inflation pressures [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following a December jobs report that suggested a cooling labor market, traders are pricing in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, with potential rate cuts expected in June 2026 [3] Earnings Season - JPMorgan Chase is set to release its earnings report, leading a series of major bank results, including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley in the coming days [4] Geopolitical Factors - President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran adds geopolitical uncertainty, impacting market dynamics and tariff pressures on prices [5] Company Developments - BlackRock has announced a reduction of 1% of its staff, indicating potential shifts in operational strategy [6]