2026年1月16日，本公司兑付了本期短期融资券本息共计人民币5,038,526,027.40元。 格隆汇1月19日丨中国银河(601881.SH)公布，本公司于2025年7月22日成功发行了中国银河证券股份有 限公司2025年度第十六期短期融资券，本期短期融资券发行额为人民币50亿元，票面利率为1.58%，短 期融资券期限为178天，兑付日期为2026年1月16日。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) has seen a stock price increase of 6.16%, closing at 55.3 yuan, with analysts projecting steady profit growth and new capacity investments expected in the coming years [1] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yara International reported a main revenue of 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.363 billion yuan, up 163.01% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.362 billion yuan, reflecting a 164.56% increase - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter main revenue of 1.345 billion yuan, a 71.37% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 508 million yuan, up 104.69% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 58.91% [1][1][1] Analyst Ratings - Over the past 90 days, 12 institutions have rated the stock, with 10 giving a "buy" rating and 2 an "accumulate" rating - Analysts from China Galaxy, Guojin Securities, and Kaiyuan Securities have all issued "buy" ratings for Yara International [1][1][1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Yara International from 2025 to 2027 predicts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.910 billion, 2.709 billion, and 3.449 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 101.00%, 41.80%, and 27.31% respectively - The diluted EPS for the same period is expected to be 2.07, 2.93, and 3.73 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.36, 15.06, and 11.83 times [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The opening of the direct flight route from Haikou to Kuala Lumpur in 2025 symbolizes China's financial strength's deep involvement in the global supply chain restructuring [2] - Hainan's strategic positioning has shifted from a policy pilot zone to a global supply chain hub, supported by robust trade data and favorable policies [4] Group 1: Hainan's Strategic Role - Hainan's geographical advantage positions it as a natural bridge connecting China and Southeast Asia, with bilateral trade with ASEAN expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 7.7% year-on-year increase [4] - The implementation of Hainan Free Trade Port's policies, including "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems," provides institutional support for its hub function [4] - Companies are beginning to benefit from these policies, as seen with Hainan Libona Technology Development Co., which has secured orders in South Korea due to tariff exemptions [4] Group 2: China Galaxy Securities' Strategic Positioning - China Galaxy Securities has developed a comprehensive service ecosystem in Hainan, integrating platform, capital, financing, green initiatives, and innovation [6] - The establishment of a mother fund for the Free Trade Port construction, initially set at 10 billion yuan and recently expanded to 20 billion yuan, marks a significant capital initiative [7] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative scale of its sub-funds is expected to reach 20.9 billion yuan, effectively leveraging fiscal funds [8] Group 3: Financing and Green Initiatives - China Galaxy Securities has facilitated the issuance of 13 billion yuan in offshore RMB local government bonds for Hainan and assisted in issuing US dollar senior bonds for Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group, diversifying financing channels [8] - The company has introduced the first domestic product to address EU carbon tariffs, providing financial tools for managing carbon cost risks, which has received multiple international awards [8] Group 4: Differentiated Pathways in Southeast Asia - China Galaxy Securities has adopted a unique approach of "acquisition integration and localized operation" in Southeast Asia, contrasting with other Chinese brokers [10] - The acquisition of Malaysia's CIMB Group's securities business in 2017 marked the first cross-border merger in the ASEAN core region, allowing rapid market access and customer base acquisition [10] - By mid-2025, its subsidiary, Galaxy Overseas, ranked first in Malaysia and second in Singapore, achieving significant market share [10] Group 5: Localization Strategy - The success of the acquisition is attributed to a localization strategy that retains and utilizes local teams, enhancing operational effectiveness [11] - Monthly meetings between domestic and overseas teams strengthen collaboration in strategy, risk compliance, and specific business projects [11] Group 6: Industry Landscape and Challenges - The internationalization of Chinese brokers is characterized by diverse pathways, with China Galaxy Securities providing a model for "acquisition integration and rapid market entry" [13] - Leading brokers face common challenges, including the shift from "business export" to "ecosystem empowerment," necessitating integrated cross-border solutions [14] - True localization involves not just establishing branches but also adapting governance, services, and compliance to local markets, posing high demands on headquarters' management capabilities [14]

中国银河国际经济学家研报写道，新加坡2026年非石油国内出口增长预计将放缓。来自新加坡主要贸易 伙伴（包括美国和欧盟）的需求将会放缓。非石油国内出口表现也可能受到外部因素的拖累，例如全球 贸易放缓和潜在的供应链中断。不过，与人工智能、数据中心和半导体相关的出口可能保持韧性。中国 银河国际维持其对新加坡非石油国内出口增长2.9%的预测，低于2025年的4.8%。 ...

中国银河国际(CGS International)的Jacquelyn Yow在一份报告中称，如果印尼关于调整网约车佣金的提 议得以通过，Grab的盈利可能会受到冲击。据报道，该国正在考虑一项法令草案，可能将Grab就两轮车 出行服务向其司机伙伴收取的佣金上限从目前的20%下调至10%。该分析师称，假设Grab在印尼的移动 出行业务商品交易总额(GMV)有20%来自两轮车出行，那么这一佣金上限可能会拖累Grab的调整后利 息、税项、折旧、摊销前收益(Ebitda)下降5%-10%。不过，她认为Grab有多种手段来保护其利润率状 况，包括通过提高车费来转嫁成本以及减少对合作伙伴的激励措施。中国银河国际维持其增持评级和 7.20美元的目标价。Grab股价最新收盘下跌0.2%，报4.38美元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that listed banks are expected to achieve a strong start in credit growth, particularly in the corporate sector, which will support steady annual credit growth [1] - The report forecasts that the incremental RMB loans in January 2026 will be approximately 5.5-5.6 trillion yuan, an increase of about 300 billion yuan year-on-year, with financial institutions' RMB loans expected to be around 5.3-5.4 trillion yuan, up by about 250 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the corporate loans are anticipated to perform better than the same period last year due to factors such as a later Spring Festival, increased working days, and proactive fiscal measures [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the narrowing of interest margin (NIM) is expected to slow down, with a projected decline of about 5-10 basis points in 2026 under the assumption of a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut [2] - The optimization of funding costs is expected to be a major support for banks, as the maturity of high-interest deposits and the optimization of deposit structure will help reduce funding costs [2] - The report notes that the self-discipline of interbank deposit rates will also contribute to lowering banks' funding costs [2] Group 3 - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, benefiting from the gradual progress in debt restructuring, with low exposure to real estate-related risks for listed banks [3] - The report mentions that the retail non-performing loan (NPL) risk is expected to remain stable, with the main influencing factors being residents' income and income expectations [3] - Continuous efforts to stabilize the real estate market and improve residents' employment and income are emphasized as important measures [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities experienced a decline in stock price and trading volume, with significant changes in financing and shareholder structure, indicating a low financing balance and a mixed performance in revenue and profit metrics [1][2]. Financing and Trading Data - On January 16, China Galaxy's stock fell by 0.70%, with a trading volume of 715 million yuan. The financing buy-in amounted to 105 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 86.46 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 18.13 million yuan. The total financing and securities balance reached 3.048 billion yuan [1]. - The financing balance of 3.048 billion yuan represents 2.70% of the circulating market value, which is below the 30% percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1]. - In terms of securities lending, there were no shares repaid on January 16, with 7,700 shares sold short, amounting to 119,900 yuan. The remaining short-selling volume was 52,400 shares, with a balance of 815,900 yuan, also below the 10% percentile level over the past year [1]. Business Performance - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for China Galaxy was 125,100, a decrease of 8.14% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 8.67% to 58,180 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, China Galaxy reported operating revenue of 22.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.01%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 57.51% to 10.968 billion yuan [2]. Dividend and Shareholder Structure - Since its A-share listing, China Galaxy has distributed a total of 19.860 billion yuan in dividends, with 9.166 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder with 140 million shares, a decrease of 45.8192 million shares from the previous period. China Securities Finance Corporation remained stable as the fourth-largest shareholder with 84.0782 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that investor sentiment has become highly active since the beginning of 2026, with a continuous increase in margin financing balance, reflecting policy signals aimed at guiding rational investment and maintaining market stability [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the week of January 12-16, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the overall index rising by 0.49%. The Sci-Tech 50 index led with a 2.58% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 recorded declines [2]. - Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 1.27%, compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300. Growth and cyclical styles also saw gains of 1.78% and 0.94%, respectively, while financial stocks fell by 2.73% [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - A-share market trading activity significantly increased, with daily trading volume averaging 34,651 billion yuan, up by 6,131.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The average turnover rate rose to 2.705%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points [3]. - As of Thursday, the margin financing balance reached 27,187.27 billion yuan, an increase of 911.36 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - In the week, 17 new equity funds were established, with a total issuance of 13.152 billion units, up by 12.191 billion units from the previous week, representing 68.17% of total issuance [3]. - From January 8 to January 14, global funds saw a net inflow of 4.111 billion USD into A-shares, accelerating from a previous inflow of 0.374 billion USD [3]. Group 3: Valuation Changes - The overall A-share index's PE (TTM) valuation increased by 0.28% to 23.28 times, placing it at the 94.63 percentile since 2010. The PB (LF) valuation also rose by 0.28% to 1.92 times, at the 56.28 percentile since 2010 [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in margin financing balance and the adjustment of financing margin ratios are intended to stabilize the market and promote rational investment. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policy measures to support economic transformation and indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts, which is expected to boost market confidence [4].

Core Viewpoint - The computer industry is expected to experience a strong start in early 2026, with a potential bottom reversal in industry prosperity driven by AI applications and opportunities in the domestic computing power supply chain [1][5]. Industry Performance - As of early 2026, the computer industry index has increased by 18.04%, ranking third among SW primary industries, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (3.96%), CSI 300 (2.42%), ChiNext Index (4.56%), and STAR Market 50 Index (11.66%) [6]. - The Wind AI application index has risen by 19.25%, indicating strong market recognition of the AI application sector, which is becoming a core driver for the rebound in the computer sector's prosperity [6]. AI Application Trends - The AI application sector is witnessing a series of favorable catalysts, reshaping flow logic. Major AI model companies like Zhipu and MiniMax have recently gone public and performed strongly, while international movements, such as NVIDIA's $1 billion collaboration with Eli Lilly and OpenAI's acquisition of Torch, further enhance the positive outlook for AI applications [2][6]. - The transition from traditional SEO (Search Engine Optimization) to GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) is accelerating, pushing AI applications from a technology validation phase to a commercial value realization phase [2][6]. Commercialization Pathways - B-end AI applications are expected to see the first wave of explosive growth, with a focus on sectors such as AI + marketing, AI + industrial software, AI + healthcare, and AI + finance [7]. - Traditional C-end companies with strong user bases and brand influence can further solidify their competitive advantages through AI empowerment, making them worthy of long-term investment tracking [7]. Computing Power Infrastructure - The domestic computing power sector is entering a new development cycle, with a recovery trend in AIDC bidding observed in Q4 2025. Major internet companies in China are expected to accelerate data center layouts in 2026 [3][7]. - If H200 supply is restored, it will significantly enhance large model training efficiency, further accelerating the implementation of AI applications and driving demand for domestic computing power chips in inference [3][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines for 2026, with eight specific sub-sector recommendations: 1. Large model and MaaS vendors, including Alibaba-W, Zhipu, MiniMax, and iFlytek 2. Domestic computing power and data center supply chain, including Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Runze Technology, and Inspur 3. AI + marketing sector, including BlueFocus and Visual China 4. AI + industrial software sector, including Dingjie Zhizhi and BGI 5. AI + healthcare sector, including Jingtai Holdings and Weining Health 6. AI + office sector, including Kingsoft Office and Wanjing Technology 7. AI + ERP sector, including Kingdee International and Yonyou Network 8. AI + finance sector, including Hengsheng Electronics and Tonghuashun [8].

Core Insights - The AI glasses are evolving into a new generation of human-computer interaction core carriers, with the industry experiencing a critical turning point in 2023 due to breakthroughs in multiple core technologies [1][2] - The integration of AI functionalities presents a high-value logic of "small incremental costs for large incremental experiences," which can naturally attract a large existing user base from traditional glasses and sunglasses [2] Technology Breakthroughs and Interaction Innovations - AI glasses are becoming the core carriers of human-computer interaction, with significant technological breakthroughs enabling lightweight devices to support complex voice and environmental interactions [1] - The introduction of specialized low-power chips provides the hardware foundation for offline voice interaction and real-time translation, optimizing power consumption and battery life [1] Market Expansion and Competitive Landscape - The global AI glasses market is in a phase of rapid expansion and structural differentiation, with AI glasses expected to account for 78% of smart glasses shipments by mid-2025, and global shipments projected to reach 20 million units by 2028 [3] - The market features a "one strong leader and many strong followers" structure, with leading companies taking the initiative while numerous brands follow suit, employing a dual-line product strategy [3] User Base and Market Potential - There are currently 2.2 billion people globally with vision impairment, and the global sunglasses market is projected to reach approximately $22.32 billion in 2024, providing a substantial user base for AI glasses [2] - The advancements in technology are transforming AI glasses from smartphone accessories to independent smart devices that can deliver value across multiple scenarios [2] Challenges in User Experience and Cost - The path to large-scale adoption of AI glasses faces challenges such as poor user experience leading to high return rates and high costs hindering market penetration [4] - Optical display (43%) and main control chips (31%) constitute a significant portion of the overall cost, with optical waveguide lenses and display technology being key cost constraints [4] Application Ecosystem and Privacy Concerns - The domestic market shows a fragmented brand ecosystem, limiting the core value of devices in daily scenarios, although some companies are making strides in ecosystem integration [4] - The lack of privacy and security standards needs to be addressed through industry collaboration to build user trust, which is essential for the growth of AI glasses [4]