Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate recovery of China's macro economy in 2026, with an expected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, characterized by structural differentiation [1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates resilient exports and a gradual recovery in investments, while consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [1] - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to feature marginal liquidity easing alongside moderate economic recovery [1] Asset Class Recommendations - Recommended asset classes in order of preference: commodities > stocks > bonds [1] Equity Market Projections - The report predicts a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A-share index in 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance rebound and a second round of valuation recovery, termed a "Davis Double" [1] - US stocks are likely to maintain growth momentum under a backdrop of fiscal and monetary easing during the midterm election year [1] Bond Market Expectations - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, with a pattern of decline followed by an increase [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain within a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] Commodity Market Insights - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel [1] - Gold is expected to remain strong due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the growth rate may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price forecasted to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to enter a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate gradually approaching 6.8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's snack retail industry is projected to see store numbers double by 2024 and grow over 30% to 42,000 and 56,000 stores by 2025, with industry sales expected to exceed 220 billion yuan by 2025. The competition is expected to intensify in 2024, but ease in 2025, with a significant focus on store expansion and price wars among leading companies [1]. Group 1: Store Expansion - The snack retail industry has significant room for expansion, with leading companies continuing to open new stores. The estimated number of stores is expected to double to 42,000 in 2024 and further expand to 56,000 by the end of 2025, although the growth rate will slow down. Based on saturation levels in Hunan province and other demographic factors, the industry could potentially expand to 70,000 to 80,000 stores, indicating over 30% expansion potential [1]. - The industry is experiencing a concentration trend, with the top two companies currently holding 71% of the market share, which is expected to rise to over 80%, indicating that there is still over 50% room for new store openings [1]. Group 2: Competition - In 2024, competition in the snack retail industry is expected to intensify, with leading companies employing various subsidies to accelerate store openings and capture market share. Following the intense price wars of 2024, a dual-leader competitive landscape has emerged, leading to a significant improvement in competition by 2025, with a notable reduction in store opening subsidies [2]. - The era of price competition is considered over, with future competition likely to focus on brand strength, product assortment, digital operations, and private label products [2]. Group 3: Store Efficiency - Despite a decline in single-store revenue due to increased store density, there are signs of improvement. In the first half of 2025, store sales are expected to drop by over 10%, extending the payback period for new stores from 1-2 years to 2-3 years. Companies are responding by diversifying product offerings, increasing store sizes, experimenting with discount supermarkets, and enhancing private label products to improve average transaction values [3]. - The expansion of non-food categories and optimization of product structures are ongoing, with leading companies showing signs of improvement in same-store sales in the second half of 2025, with a noticeable narrowing of the sales decline compared to the first half [3]. Group 4: Insights from BIM - BIM, a leading discount retailer in Turkey, has demonstrated robust store expansion through a limited SKU strategy, focusing on private label products, and efficient supply chain management. The company has maintained a high-value retail model, proving resilient in various economic conditions [4]. - The study of BIM suggests that adapting to consumer demands for variety and quality is crucial, necessitating SKU optimization and store renovations to support same-store sales. BIM has successfully expanded its SKU count from 600 to 900, while also introducing new store formats to meet diverse consumer needs [4]. - As purchasing volumes increase, discount retailers may find it reasonable to establish their own production and processing supply chains for better cost and quality control. BIM has entered upstream manufacturing, enhancing its private label product offerings [5][6].

Macro and Policy - In 2026, China's macroeconomic growth is expected to show a mild recovery with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, supported by resilient exports and gradually recovering investments, although consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [4][14] - The focus of policies will be on building a modern industrial system, which is anticipated to yield significant results in technological innovation and industrial upgrades [4][14] Major Asset Classes - The asset environment in 2026 is expected to exhibit marginal liquidity easing and mild economic recovery, with recommendations favoring commodities over stocks and bonds [3][13] - The expected annual increase for the Wind All A index is projected to be between 5% and 10%, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a rebound in performance and valuation recovery [3][13] - Commodity prices are anticipated to stabilize, with Brent crude oil expected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel, and gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce [3][13] Technology - The narrative around AI is expected to deepen, continuing to reshape the value of the technology sector, with a shift from "model iteration" to "scenario implementation" [5][15] - Domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment are expected to thrive under the trend of self-sufficiency, while AI-related sectors are projected to experience significant growth [5][15] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to stabilize due to low expectations and valuations, with a focus on wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization driving business turning points [6][16] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in new products and categories driven by emotional and health-related demands [6][16] Healthcare - The healthcare sector is likely to benefit from improved payment systems and accelerated international expansion, with domestic innovative drugs entering a phase of payment improvement and market realization [7][17] Energy - The energy sector is expected to see continued price increases for copper, aluminum, gold, and battery metals, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [7][17] - Coal companies are projected to improve performance in line with coal prices, with recommendations for selecting stocks based on low-cost positioning and capacity expansion [7][17] Infrastructure - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for a stabilization foundation in 2026, and companies may enter a critical year for balance sheet repair [8][18] - The public utility and environmental sectors are recommended for investment, particularly in water and gas industries, which are expected to recover as gas prices fall and demand rises [8][18] Financial Sector - The financial industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with improved operating conditions expected as interest rates stabilize and insurance sector concerns ease [8][18] - Economic recovery is anticipated to drive demand for financial services, with a focus on high-dividend financial stocks as a stable investment choice [8][18] Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector's growth is expected to be driven by resilient overseas demand and a recovery in domestic demand, with AI continuing to be a major growth driver [9][19] - Companies are advised to focus on risk-resistant core assets while capitalizing on global expansion and technological advancements [9][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan, which may impact Japanese zirconia manufacturers, while Chinese zirconia powder and ceramic block manufacturers are expected to benefit and expand their market share overseas [1][4]. Group 1: Export Control Announcement - The Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on all dual-use items exported to Japanese military users and any other end-users that contribute to enhancing Japan's military capabilities, effective from January 6, 2026 [2]. - Organizations and individuals violating these regulations will face legal consequences [2]. Group 2: Impact on Japanese Manufacturers - Yttrium oxide, a key raw material for yttrium-stabilized zirconia, is included in the export control list, which may disrupt Japanese manufacturers like DKKK, Tosoh, and Showa Denko, as they are involved in military products [3][4]. - The global zirconia market is projected to reach 4.23 billion by 2025, with Japanese firms holding significant market positions [4]. Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - The disruption in Japanese production due to export controls is expected to benefit Chinese zirconia powder manufacturers, allowing them to accelerate their international expansion [5]. - Japanese zirconia manufacturers' clients will also be affected, creating further opportunities for their Chinese counterparts to gain market share [5].

人民财讯1月7日电，中信证券指出，经测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基数扩大等原 因，存在一定的流动性缺口。然而，中信证券认为更值得关注的是大量结汇对流动性的影响。如果商业 银行持续结汇，但央行不购汇，资金面可能会面临摩擦，需要央行通过其他货币政策工具予以对冲。 转自：证券时报 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ...

每经AI快讯，1月7日，中信证券研报表示，我国量贩零食行业发展迅速，估算2024/2025年门店同比翻 倍/增长超30%至4.2万/5.6万家，2025年行业销售规模有望达2200+亿元。2024年行业竞争加剧，头部量 贩零食企业通过加大门店和价格战补贴推动加速拓店。2025年行业竞争缓和，不过由于门店快速加密， 2025H1头部量贩零食企业同店销售下滑多，2025H2同店跌幅已环比改善。研报称，看好国内硬折扣零 售业态可以穿越经济周期、保持韧性增长，头部量贩零食企业未来还有超50%的开店空间，品类扩展、 自有品牌产品运营、店型优化、精细化运营是未来重要发展任务。 ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of China's snack retail industry is highlighted, with projections indicating that the number of stores will double year-on-year in 2024 and grow over 30% to 42,000 and 56,000 stores by 2025, respectively [1] - The industry sales scale is expected to exceed 220 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - Increased competition is anticipated in 2024, with leading snack retail companies accelerating store expansion through store openings and price wars [1] - Competition is expected to ease in 2025, although same-store sales for leading companies are projected to decline in the first half of 2025, with improvements in the second half [1] - The resilience of hard discount retail formats in China is supported by a review of Turkey's leading hard discount retailer BIM, suggesting that these formats can withstand economic cycles [1] - There remains over 50% potential for store openings among leading snack retail companies, with key future development tasks including category expansion, private label product management, store format optimization, and refined operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce's strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan may impact Japanese zirconia manufacturers, while Chinese zirconia powder and ceramic block manufacturers are expected to benefit and expand their market share overseas [1]. Group 1 - The export control measures are aimed at dual-use items, which could affect the competitiveness of Japanese zirconia producers [1]. - Chinese manufacturers of zirconia powder and ceramic blocks are positioned to gain from the situation, potentially increasing their presence in international markets [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce's strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan may impact Japanese zirconia manufacturers, while Chinese zirconia powder and ceramic block manufacturers are expected to benefit and expand their overseas market share [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The global zirconia market is projected to reach 4.23 billion yuan by 2025, with Japanese companies such as DKKK, Tosoh, and Showa Denko holding significant market positions [1] - DKKK and Tosoh are directly or indirectly involved in military products, making them likely to be affected by the export controls, which could hinder their import of Chinese yttrium [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - China's yttrium production accounts for over 93% of the global supply, and due to export controls in the first half of 2025, yttrium prices surged by up to 50 times from early 2025 to the end of November 2025 [1] - The potential impact of the current export controls is expected to significantly disrupt the operations of Japanese zirconia manufacturers [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - If Japanese manufacturers face production disruptions due to export controls, it will directly benefit Chinese zirconia powder manufacturers, allowing them to accelerate their international expansion [1] - The customers of Japanese zirconia manufacturers will also be affected, creating opportunities for corresponding Chinese counterparts to gain market share [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's snack retail industry is highlighted, with projections indicating significant growth in store numbers and sales revenue in the coming years [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Projections - It is estimated that the number of snack retail stores will double year-on-year by 2024 and grow over 30% to 42,000 and 56,000 stores by 2024 and 2025, respectively [1] - The industry sales scale is expected to exceed 220 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Increased competition is anticipated in 2024, with leading snack retail companies accelerating store expansion through store openings and price wars [1] - By 2025, competition is expected to ease, although leading companies may experience a decline in same-store sales in the first half of the year, with improvements noted in the second half [1] Group 3: Strategic Insights - The analysis of Turkey's leading hard discount retailer BIM suggests that domestic hard discount retail formats can withstand economic cycles and maintain resilient growth [1] - There remains over 50% potential for store openings among leading snack retail companies, with key future development tasks including category expansion, private label product management, store format optimization, and refined operations [1]