Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and structural reshaping, characterized by undervaluation, capital misalignment, and performance differentiation, with significant net inflows from southbound funds and a shift in foreign capital [1][2]. Valuation and Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 50% from early 2021 to January 2024, leading to a significant valuation gap [2]. - As of December 9, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index have recorded cumulative gains of 49.20%, 22.59%, and 24.32%, respectively [2]. - By the end of 2025, the expected EPS growth for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is projected to be 8%, with a dynamic P/E ratio of only 12 times, indicating a notable valuation gap compared to major global markets [2]. Capital Flow Dynamics - Southbound funds have seen a record net inflow of nearly 1.4 trillion HKD by the end of November 2023, marking a new high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The inflow of ETFs surged to 51.3% from June to October, with August reaching 88%, indicating strong enthusiasm among domestic individual investors [3]. - Institutional investors favor sectors like non-bank themes and precious metals, while individual investors focus on growth sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3]. Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - The technology sector is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, contrasting with traditional sectors like finance and real estate [4]. - The AI industry chain in Hong Kong is strengthening, with a positive correlation between the Hang Seng Technology Index and the USD/JPY exchange rate [4]. - For 2026, investment opportunities should focus on sectors with performance certainty and valuation elasticity, particularly technology, pharmaceuticals, resource products, and essential consumer goods [8]. Long-term Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a second round of valuation repair driven by internal and external factors, including the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and easing monetary policies globally [6][5]. - The potential for external capital inflow is expected to increase as the risk premium decreases due to improved Sino-U.S. relations [6]. Specific Sector Insights - The technology sector, especially the AI industry, is expected to benefit from a virtuous cycle of investment and revenue growth, with a focus on leading companies and quality players in the computing power supply chain [8]. - The pharmaceutical sector is entering a growth phase supported by policy and industry developments, with a focus on innovative companies and those benefiting from domestic market reforms [8]. - The resource sector is supported by supply-demand mismatches and liquidity drivers, with companies in precious metals and rare earths likely to benefit from rising commodity prices [9]. - The essential consumer goods sector is poised for valuation recovery as domestic policies stimulate consumption and improve income expectations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and structural reshaping, characterized by undervaluation, capital misalignment, and performance differentiation, with a significant influx of southbound capital and a shift in foreign investment reshaping the funding landscape [1][2]. Valuation and Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 50% from the post-Lunar New Year of 2021 to January 2024, leading to a significant valuation gap [2]. - As of December 9, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index have recorded cumulative gains of 49.20%, 22.59%, and 24.32%, respectively [2]. - By the end of 2025, the expected EPS growth rate for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is projected to be 8%, with a dynamic P/E ratio of only 12 times, indicating a notable valuation gap compared to major global markets [2]. Capital Flow and Investment Preferences - Southbound capital has seen a record net inflow of nearly 1.4 trillion HKD by the end of November, marking a new high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The capital structure shows a clear differentiation, with institutional investors favoring themes like non-bank ETFs and personal investors focusing on growth sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3]. - Foreign capital, while still experiencing outflows, has shown signs of recovery since August, with long-term foreign capital seeing its first phase of inflow since September 2022, particularly favoring the information technology sector [3]. Sector Performance and Outlook - The technology sector is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, contrasting sharply with traditional sectors like finance and real estate [4]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown volatility but continues to strengthen its core competitiveness, with the sector benefiting from advancements in AI and related technologies [4]. - The long-term trend of recovery in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, driven by policy dividends and external risk dynamics [5][6]. Investment Directions - Key investment opportunities for 2026 are identified in four main sectors: technology, pharmaceuticals, resource products, and essential consumer goods, focusing on "earnings certainty + valuation elasticity" [8][9]. - The technology sector, particularly the AI industry chain, is anticipated to benefit from a virtuous cycle of investment and revenue growth, with a focus on leading companies and quality players in the computing power supply chain [8]. - The pharmaceuticals sector is entering a phase of certain growth, supported by policy and industry developments, with a focus on innovative companies and those benefiting from domestic market reforms [8]. - The resource products sector is supported by supply-demand mismatches and liquidity drivers, with expectations of rising commodity prices benefiting related stocks [9]. - The essential consumer goods sector is poised for valuation recovery, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving income expectations [9].

转自：智通财经 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【中信证券维持赛富时买入评级 目标价350美元】智通财经12月9日电，中信证券维持赛富时 （CRM.N）买入评级，目标价350美元，FY2026Q3收入102.6亿美元（+9% YoY），Non-GAAP净利润 36.4亿美元（+16% YoY）超预期。数据云与AI产品经常性年化收入达14亿美元，同比增长114%， Agentforce订单进展强劲，推动平台价值提升。公司盈利预测上调，受益于AI驱动增长与生态协同效 应，目标价维持350美元。 ...

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每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——处方药变"瘾品"：国内首次报告普瑞巴林滥用致成瘾病例，网络平台暴 露"无病历可购药"漏洞，列管与否尚需科学考量 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，威力传动（SZ 300904，收盘价：66.51元）发布公告称，2025年12月9日，威力传动接受 中信证券调研，公司副总裁、董事会秘书周建林先生参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问题。 2025年1至6月份，威力传动的营业收入构成为：风电齿轮箱占比98.23%，其他产品占比1.77%。 截至发稿，威力传动市值为48亿元。 ...

作者丨彭鑫 编辑丨安安 12月9日，中信证券指出，2025年12月1日《电动自行车安全技术规范》（GB17761-2024）全面落地， 《外卖平台服务管理基本要求》（GB/T46862-2025）次日实施，行业正式进入"新新国标"阶段。当前市 场争议本质是"标准先行、配套跟进"的阶段性阵痛，随着道路建设、分级管控、商用速度限制等配套措 施落地，安全与实用的失衡料将逐步化解。 行业集中度提升与高端化趋势共振，头部企业凭借合规先发优势、产品创新能力及渠道壁垒料将持续受 益，上游安全材料、中游头部整车及下游配套服务赛道迎来结构性投资机会。 ...

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