Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be a golden era for both the Chinese economy and capital markets, with foreign capital being a major source of incremental funds [1][5] - CPI is projected to stabilize around 0.5% next year, while PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of the year [3][4] - The rise in overall factor productivity is crucial, with breakthroughs in various sectors such as DeepSeek, lithography machines, and chips [3] Group 2: Commodity Prices and Inflation - A potential "pig oil resonance" economic phenomenon may impact CPI and PPI significantly, with oil prices influenced by U.S. factors, OPEC+ production capacity, and geopolitical risks [3] - Pork prices are expected to rebound in the second quarter of next year, with a projected year-on-year increase in the second half of the year [3] - The timing for expanding domestic demand is critical, particularly as external demand slows down [4] Group 3: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market will be influenced by a shift back to demand-side pricing, with improved leverage willingness from the private sector [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is likened to an investment phase, which may lead to short-term downward pressure on exports [4] - The upcoming period is seen as a window for observing large-scale domestic demand expansion policies, which could lead to sustained inflation [4] Group 4: U.S. Economic Impact - The long economic expansion cycle in the U.S. since the 2009 financial crisis may face a turning point between 2027 and 2028, with potential impacts following the mid-term elections next year [5] - The wealth effect from the U.S. stock market currently supports the service industry and employment, but a market adjustment could trigger negative feedback loops [5] - A depreciation cycle of the U.S. dollar is anticipated, which may reduce the attractiveness of U.S. assets and provide opportunities for Chinese markets [5]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：国际投行研究报告 蛇年最上头董秘：45 岁前招商证券投行委执行总经理魏忠伟跳槽沐曦股份14 个月股份市值 7467 万！ 投行的人都在跳槽，招商证券投行委执行总经理魏忠伟一跳成名！真的跳对了！ 1 、IPO 说明书显示，魏忠伟，男，1980 年 4 月出生。2006 年 5 月至 2007 年 6 月，任上海电气资产管 理有限公司资产财 务部产权助理；2007 年 8 月至 2009 年 1 月，任中银国际证券股份有限公司投行 部 经理；2009 年 4 月至 2010 年 3 月，任海通证券股份有限公司并购融资部副总 裁；2010 年 4 月至 2017 年 8 月，任中信证券股份有限公司投行委高级副总裁； 2017 年 8 月至 2018 年 12 月，任渤海证券股份 有限公司投资银行总部总经理、 并购融资总部总经理；2019 年 1 月至 2019 年 12 月，任国海证券股份 有限公司 权益融资总部董事总经理；2019 年 12 月至 2024 年 3 月，任申万宏源证券承销 保荐有限公司 执行总经理；2024 年 3 月 ...

Group 1 - The total box office for the 2025 film market has reached 51.074 billion yuan, significantly surpassing the same period in 2024 [1][2] - The 2025 New Year’s film season has generated a box office of 4.587 billion yuan, exceeding the total box office of the 2024 and 2023 New Year’s film seasons [1][2] - The 2025 New Year’s film season runs for 34 days from November 28 to December 31, while the 2023 and 2024 seasons lasted 38 and 40 days, respectively [1] Group 2 - Upcoming films include the fantasy adventure "The Legend of the Condor Heroes," which is set to release on December 31, with 173,000 people expressing interest [2] - The suspense film "The Hidden Kill" is also scheduled for December 31, with previous works by the director achieving box office success [2] - The animated short film collection "Chinese Folktales 2" will be exclusively released on Bilibili starting January 1, 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities suggests that the PCB industry in 2026 will continue to present long-term investment opportunities in sectors such as computing power boards, CCL, upstream raw materials, equipment, AI edge applications, and domestic substitution. The current AI-driven technological innovation cycle is expected to last longer and generate broader market demand, with optimism from overseas CSP manufacturers regarding AI capital expenditure for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The PCB sector experienced a steady upward trend driven by AI computing demand in early 2025, followed by fluctuations due to uncertainties in training-side computing power demand and geopolitical factors. The overall performance of the PCB sector showed significant growth, with a 149.9% increase year-to-date, outperforming the SW electronics sector by 101.2 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 132.2 percentage points [1] - The PCB industry is currently in an expansion phase, with strong downstream AI computing demand. Despite expected weaknesses in mobile and automotive sectors in 2026, the demand for servers and switches remains robust due to AI infrastructure upgrades [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall utilization rate of PCB manufacturers in the second half of 2025 was between 93-97%, with leading manufacturers maintaining optimistic order visibility for over three months. The industry is entering a new capacity expansion phase, focusing on high-end HDI, high multi-layer boards, and high-end substrates [2] - The demand for high-end HDI and high multi-layer boards is rapidly increasing, with a projected 25% year-on-year growth in AI capital expenditure, amounting to approximately $550 billion in 2026. The server PCB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.7% from 2024 to 2029, reaching $25.7 billion [3] Group 3: Product and Price Trends - The prices of copper and gold are expected to remain high, with upward trends in copper foil processing fees and fiberglass cloth. The overall price outlook for the PCB/CCL industry remains bullish for 2026 [2] - The AI-driven demand for CCL is leading to significant upgrades in specifications, with the high-speed CCL market projected to reach approximately $8 billion in 2026, driven by a CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027 [6] Group 4: Upstream Materials and Equipment - The demand for high-end products in upstream materials is accelerating, with significant upgrades in electronic copper foil, resin, and fiberglass cloth. The supply of high-end materials is becoming increasingly tight [7] - Domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the PCB expansion cycle and the accelerated domestic substitution of high-end equipment, particularly in drilling and laser drilling sectors [8]

Company Overview - Miao Exhibition has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Merchants Securities International as its sole sponsor [1] - The company's business is primarily divided into exhibition organizing services, exhibition agency services, and other services such as online marketing, with exhibition organizing being the core [1] Market Position - Miao Exhibition ranks first among all overseas exhibition organizations in China based on the number and area of self-organized overseas exhibitions planned for 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan [1] - The company has successfully organized 77 exhibitions, attracting tens of thousands of exhibitors and incubating over ten industry-specific exhibition brands covering areas such as home goods and consumer electronics [1] Industry Growth - From 2020 to 2024, the Chinese exhibition industry has shown significant recovery in terms of the number and area of exhibitions, with the number of exhibitions increasing from 5,408 in 2020 to 9,110 in 2024 [1] - It is projected that the number of exhibitions will further increase from 10,385 in 2025 to 15,693 in 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate of 11.5% during the forecast period [1] International Market Expansion - The overseas exhibition market continues to grow robustly, supported by national initiatives to help Chinese enterprises expand into international markets, diversify trade partners, and enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese products [1] - The total number of overseas exhibitions is expected to rise from 216 in 2024 to 315 in 2029 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates an improvement in economic conditions this week, particularly in the resource, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors [1] Resource Sector - Prices for metals, steel, and coal have mostly increased, with the national cement price index also rising [4] - Industrial metal prices have generally gone up, including copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and lead, while zinc prices have decreased [4] - Brent crude oil prices have risen, and the chemical product price index has shown a week-on-week increase, although most chemical prices have declined [4] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices for upstream products in the new energy vehicle sector have mostly increased, and the price index for photovoltaics has risen week-on-week [3] - The production of metal forming machine tools has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate for November, while the production of packaging equipment has seen a larger decline [3] Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all increased this week [2] - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 DRAM memory have risen month-on-month, and the telecommunications main business revenue has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate for November [2] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk and pork have increased, while the wholesale price of piglets has decreased [3] - The average ticket revenue for films has risen, indicating a potential recovery in the entertainment sector [3] Financial and Real Estate - The net absorption in the money market has been noted, with a decline in A-share turnover rate and daily transaction volume [4] - The transaction area for commercial housing has increased, while the listing price index for second-hand houses has decreased [4]

12月25日，原招商证券银行业首席分析师王先爽入职国联民生研究所，担任所长助理、货币金融研究院 院长。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by charitable organizations in asset management, emphasizing the need for professionalization and improved investment strategies [1][2] Group 1: Current State of Charitable Organizations - In 2024, the donation income of social organizations in mainland China reached 129.79 billion yuan, with the total number of foundations exceeding 9,800 [1] - Despite the growth, the sector faces structural challenges such as insufficient asset management capabilities and low investment returns [1] Group 2: Investment Management Challenges - Current average annual investment return rates for charitable assets in China are low, leading to real asset depreciation [1] - Issues such as long-term declining interest rates, reliance on bank deposits, lack of professional talent, inadequate management systems, and regional development imbalances are prominent [1] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The implementation of the new Charity Law and supporting policies provides clearer regulations for charitable investments while raising the bar for professionalization and standardization [1][2] Group 4: Future Directions and Initiatives - Charitable organizations are at a historical turning point, moving from "conservative idle" to "professional value-added" asset management [2] - The market needs to offer differentiated service strategies to accommodate varying capabilities, risk preferences, and collaboration needs among organizations [2] - In June 2025, the company will launch the "Yizhao Xiangshan · Zhiyuan Qianxing" public finance brand and establish the first ESG public finance laboratory in the securities industry [2] - The company aims to connect investors with charitable causes through public finance, promoting sustainable development in the charity sector [2]

年终之际的顶尖人才流向，往往最能体现一个平台的综合吸引力与成长潜力。国联民生证券作为行业合 并标杆，其研究所由新财富白金分析师领衔，首位"百星分析师"加持，各核心板块均已深度融合了"新 财富级"研究团队，构建起覆盖全面、兼具深度与前瞻性的研究体系和又深又宽的研究力"护城河"。在 这一持续升级的一流平台上，明星分析师不仅能获得广阔的发展空间，更能搭乘平台快车，充分释放研 究潜能、碰撞创新思维。这也正是诸多顶尖团队纷纷选择汇聚于此的原因——在这里，个人卓越与平台 赋能共振，正共同解锁一流投研生态的全新未来。 "二十一世纪最重要的是什么？人才！"，一个月时间内连下三城、王炸集结，就凭这对顶尖人才的吸引 力，发展势头正猛的国联民生证券研究所未来有看头！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月25日消息，据悉，近期国联民生研究所又有两员大将加盟——素有"创新药骑手"之称的原国盛证券 医药首席分析师张金洋，携核心团队正式入职，出任研究所副总经理兼医药行业首席分析师。同时，银 行业研究新晋实力派"卷王"、原招商证券银行业首席分析师王先爽，也率团队强势加入，担任所长助 理、银行首席分 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the missed investment opportunity by Bosera Investment, which sold shares of Moer Technology before its IPO, resulting in a significant loss of potential profits [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Bosera Investment, indirectly held by China Merchants Securities, transferred 837,734 shares for 50 million yuan before Moer Technology's IPO, which has a current market value of approximately 567 million yuan based on the closing price of 676.8 yuan per share on December 23 [1]. - The transfer resulted in a loss of at least 500 million yuan in potential earnings, and the total potential profit loss could be even greater when considering remaining shares [1]. - Moer Technology's IPO on December 5, 2025, involved the issuance of 70 million shares at a price of 114.28 yuan per share, with the first-day closing price at 600.50 yuan, reflecting a 425.46% increase [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The market value of the shares transferred by Bosera Investment was calculated to be 503 million yuan, leading to a profit loss of 450 million yuan compared to the transfer price [2]. - If evaluated at the closing price of 634.01 yuan on December 24, the market value of the transferred shares would be 531 million yuan, resulting in a profit loss of 480 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Fund Information - Bosera Investment is a private equity investment fund, established on August 9, 2021, and registered on August 11, 2021, managed by Hainan Bosera Innovation Management Co., Ltd., and is currently operational [3]. - The fund is structured as a partnership and is under the custody of China Merchants Bank [3].