Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident leads to production suspension and sales volume reduction, affecting copper market supply and prices [1][3] - Global copper concentrate balance table is expected to be further adjusted, and the supply loss rate may exceed 5% in 2025 [5] - Focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market and the actual consumption strength [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On the evening of September 24, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales volume expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose sharply before the night session opened, hitting a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year; the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8, with a large amount of mud gushing out, and the mining area is basically in a state of suspension. The accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second-largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2% (still actively committed to increasing the equity ratio). The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. During the epidemic, it completed the transformation from an open-pit mine to underground mining. In 2024, the copper sales volume of the mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output. According to the 22.98 million tons of copper concentrate production of the International Copper Study Group in 2024, it accounts for about 3.3% [1] Impact of the Accident on the Mine's Sales Volume - In June 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrate unless the construction of smelter capacity is fulfilled to obtain a phased export quota. The project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine by FCX has been tortuous. The commissioning process of the Manyar smelter in 2024 was repeatedly delayed, and it was commissioned in May 2025 and produced in July (the plant is expected to produce 480,000 tons of cathode copper annually, with a concentrate processing capacity of 1.7 million tons); the Gresik smelter (jointly owned with Mitsubishi, expected to consume 40% of the copper concentrate from Grasberg and with an annual output of 342,000 tons) was shut down due to an oxygen production accident in summer. The smelting progress cannot consume the copper concentrate. After the approval of Freeport's copper concentrate export activities by the Indonesian government expired in 2024, as of the first quarter of this year, it had accumulated a large amount of concentrate inventory (it was rumored to be close to 400,000 tons at the beginning of the year), which had affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper production of the mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons [2] - In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. In 2024, the company's overall copper business in Indonesia sold 183.7 million pounds (about 830,000 tons). In 2025, it was initially expected to sell 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with last year), but only 44.3 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) were completed in the first half of the year (the pace accelerated in the third quarter). The company had previously lowered this year's expectation to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons) [2] - In March 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia (quota of about 1.27 million tons, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons), valid until September 16, 2025. As of mid-August, the company stated that it had exported about 65% of the quota and expected to use 90% of it before the expiration [3] - After the accident, FCX officially lowered the production guidance of the Grasberg copper mine. Although a small mining area that was not affected will resume production in mid - fourth quarter, Freeport Indonesia as a whole cannot complete the original sales target of 44.5 million pounds, about 200,000 tons, in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the affected mining area will be restarted in stages in 2026. The copper production target of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be directly reduced from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), a reduction of 35%. The actual copper production of Freeport Indonesia this year may only be at the level of about 500,000 tons. The operation volume of Freeport Indonesia may not return to the pre - accident level until 2027 [3] - Since Freeport Indonesia has basically completed the approval volume of copper concentrate exports in 2025, it has basically entered a gap period for external spot exports again. The domestic copper concentrate import TC quotation has turned weak again since September. In terms of production, the mine is expected to have an obvious resupply in the late first quarter of next year or even in the second half of the year [3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Table - In 2025, the severity of the accidents in global large mines is very significant. In the second quarter, the Kakula underground mine jointly operated by Ivanhoe and Zijin in the Democratic Republic of the Congo significantly lowered its production increase target for 2025 due to mine earthquakes or design reasons. In the third quarter, the operation of El Teniente under Codelco in Chile was also affected by an earthquake casualty accident, and it is expected to lose 20,000 - 30,000 tons of copper. The supply loss rate of copper concentrate this year may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport Indonesia [5] - In April 2025, the ICSG initially believed that the global copper concentrate increment this year could reach 2.3%, an increase of nearly 500,000 tons. Recently, the agency will update the copper concentrate expectation again and is likely to lower it to the level of 100,000 tons. The increment in 2026 will also be affected by this accident and be correspondingly adjusted. Therefore, the specific production resupply rhythm of the 330,000 - ton Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum in Panama becomes the key. At the same time, the annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will fall into a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose sharply at night, fully digesting the short - term supply - side event. Technically, LME copper has the potential to continue to break through the upward pattern, but it is recommended to focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of Shanghai copper weighted index increased sharply, but the total position is not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident of Freeport - McMoRan Inc. in Indonesia has a significant impact on the global copper market. It will lead to a reduction in copper production and sales in 2025 - 2026, further lower the global copper concentrate balance sheet, and affect the price trend of copper. Attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Incident Introduction - On the evening of September 24, Freeport - McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at its large mine Grasberg Block Cave in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose before the night - session opening and hit a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year. The weighted position of SHFE copper increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8. The mine is basically in a shutdown state, and the accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second - largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport - McMoRan Inc. currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2%. The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. In 2024, the copper sales of this mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output and about 3.3% of the world's copper concentrate output in 2024 [1] Impact of the Accident on Mine Sales - In 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrates. FCX's project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine has been tortuous. The Manyar smelter was put into production in May 2025 and produced output in July. The Gresik smelter had an oxygen - making accident and shut down in summer. As of the first quarter of this year, there was a large amount of concentrate inventory, which affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper output of this mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons. In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. The original sales forecast for 2025 was 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons), but it was later lowered to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons). After the accident, the production target of the Grasberg copper mine was lowered. The overall sales target of 445 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) in the fourth quarter of Indonesia's Freeport could not be completed. The 2026 production target was directly lowered from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), and the actual copper production in Indonesia's Freeport this year may only be about 500,000 tons [2][3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Sheet - In 2025, the accidents of major mines around the world were very serious. The annual copper concentrate supply loss rate may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport in Indonesia. The ICSG may lower the expected increase of global copper concentrates in 2025 from nearly 500,000 tons to 100,000 - ton level, and the increase in 2026 will also be affected. The specific production resumption rhythm of the 330,000 - ton - level Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum becomes crucial. The annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will be in a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose at night, fully digesting short - term supply - side events. Technically, LME copper has the potential to break through the chart upwards, but attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of SHFE copper weighted increased sharply, but the total position was not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 - point mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]

A halt in production at the giant Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia looks set to strain the fractious relationship between miner Freeport-McMoran and its host nation https://t.co/sEhZsw4hNx ...

一场重大矿难事故正让全球第二大铜矿陷入停产，并由此引发了全球金属市场的强烈震动。 9月24日，美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）发表声明宣布，其供应合同进入"不可抗力"状态。而这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性为"黑天鹅 事件"，点燃了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 华尔街见闻写道，事件的核心是Freeport位于印尼的Grasberg矿山。该公司确认，9月8日发生的一场大规模泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有五人失踪。 作为应对，公司已全面暂停该矿区的生产活动，并启动了不可抗力条款，该条款允许生产商在遭遇不可预见的灾难时暂停履行供应合同。 市场的反应立竿见影。消息传出后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货价格上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅。Freeport的股价在盘前交易中重挫，而其竞争对 手如嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司的股价则应声上涨。 丹麦盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen对此评论道： "交易员们先买入，然后再问问题" ，精准地描绘了市场在供应恐慌下的本能反应。 高盛： "黑天鹅"来袭，供应缺口或达数十万吨 高盛的大宗商品团队将此次Grasberg ...

Group 1 - The core event involves a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, leading to a significant increase in global copper prices and supply chain concerns [1] - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, has suspended production due to the incident, and the company has invoked force majeure clauses [1] - Freeport anticipates that it will take until 2027 to restore production levels to pre-accident figures, with a projected 35% decrease in copper-gold output for 2026 compared to previous expectations [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of the expected production before 2029, indicating a long-term impact on global copper supply chains [1] - Citic Futures notes that the reduction in production guidance for the Grasberg mine will exacerbate tightening pressures in the copper market, despite slightly weak terminal demand since September [1] - The expectation of a tightening supply-demand balance is expected to support metal prices, with a focus on potential buying opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce downgraded Freeport-McMoRan Inc. from "Outperform" to "Market Perform" and reduced the target price from $55 to $45 [1] Group 1 - The downgrade reflects a shift in the bank's outlook on Freeport-McMoRan's performance within the industry [1] - The target price adjustment indicates a more cautious approach towards the company's future valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper price surged significantly due to the suspension of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, reaching a 15-month high on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and reflecting a broader supply shortage in the global copper market [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Grasberg Mine Suspension - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest gold and copper mines globally, has been officially suspended until mid-2026 due to a safety incident, with a phased restart expected and full production recovery anticipated by 2027 [1][2]. - The suspension is projected to reduce copper output by approximately 35% in 2026 compared to previous targets, equating to a direct supply decrease of about 270,000 tons in the global copper market [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the current global electrolytic copper inventory is at a relatively low historical level, suggesting limited supply chain buffer capacity, which could lead to more pronounced price reactions to any supply disruptions [2][3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that inventory sales may alleviate the immediate supply-demand imbalance, gradually raising the price center [2]. - Long-term projections indicate that the suspension of the Grasberg mine, along with other supply disruptions, could enhance the copper supply elasticity, making prices more susceptible to upward movements if demand increases [2][3]. - The Grasberg incident is viewed as a significant catalyst that may initiate a new medium to long-term upward cycle in copper prices, with potential for substantial price increases in the fourth quarter [3].

By Anmol Choubey (Reuters) -Goldman Sachs lowered on Thursday its global copper mine supply forecast for 2025 and 2026 following a disruption at Indonesia's Grasberg, the world's second-largest copper mine. The incident, which occurred on September 8, trapped workers underground due to heavy mud flow, prompting operator Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure. The bank estimates there will be a total loss of 525,000 metric tons of copper mine supply as a result of the disruption, reducing its global m ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic situation in the third quarter is complex, with a slowdown in economic growth, policy counter - cyclical adjustments, and structural interactions between the financial market and the macro - fundamentals. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday [12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - The lithium - carbonate futures price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [23]. - It is recommended that investors be cautious when participating in the industrial - silicon and poly - silicon markets during the National Day holiday [25]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. - The steel price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the downward resistance is smaller than the upward resistance [28]. - The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [31]. - It is not recommended to short coal and coke in the black - commodity market. Arbitrage can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coal and coke [33]. - It is recommended to try to go long on the silicon - iron 11 - contract at 5550 and the silicon - manganese 01 - contract at 5800 [35]. - The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. - The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. - The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to US economic data. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - **Bond**: The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - **Shipping Index (European Line) Futures**: The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday. London gold should pay attention to the support around 3700 and the resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43 [12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - **Aluminum & Alumina & Cast - Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - **PTA - PX**: The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - **MEG - Bottle - Chip**: The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - **PP**: The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - **PE**: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. Building Materials - **Soda - Ash**: The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - **Glass**: The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - **Caustic - Soda**: The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. Others - **Pulp**: The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - **Log**: The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in copper prices on September 24 was triggered by a significant production halt at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a deadly landslide, leading to heightened global copper concentrate supply concerns [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Freeport-McMoRan, established in 1987 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, is a major player in copper, gold, and molybdenum production, with significant operations in North America, South America, and Indonesia [6]. - The Grasberg mine is one of the world's largest copper and gold mines, with copper reserves of 13.99 million tons and gold reserves of 818 tons, making it one of the lowest-cost copper mines globally [6][7]. Group 2: Incident Impact - The landslide at the Grasberg mine occurred on September 8, but the market did not react until later, with the mine's operations currently suspended and five miners still missing [3][22]. - Freeport anticipates a 35% reduction in production at the Grasberg mine by 2026 compared to previous estimates, exacerbating the already tight global copper supply situation [3][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The copper market is currently in a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations of a supply shortfall of 30,000 tons next year, influenced by the Grasberg incident and other geopolitical factors [15][16]. - The processing fees for copper concentrates have dropped significantly, indicating a tightening supply, with current TC fees around negative $40 per dry ton, compared to positive values in the previous year [22][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global copper market faces challenges due to diminishing high-quality copper resources and slow progress in exploring and developing new mines, which could lead to persistent supply shortages [24][26]. - The Grasberg incident highlights the vulnerability of copper supply chains, particularly in underdeveloped regions where mining operations are often subject to accidents and labor disputes [24][25].