格隆汇11月18日｜高盛将CoreWeave的目标价从120美元下调至105美元，维持"中性"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Market Overview - On November 18, the A-share market continued to adjust at high levels, with the lithium battery sector experiencing a significant pullback, while real estate and coal sectors also saw notable declines, dragging down the three major stock indices [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.22% to close at 48,702.98 points, and the South Korean composite index dropped by 3.32% to 3,953.62 points [2] - Domestic commodity futures showed a mixed performance, with coking coal and coke contracts leading the declines [2] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) rising by 0.06% to 116.530 yuan [2] Sector Performance - The AI application sector showed resilience, performing well against the market trend, while media and semiconductor ETFs led the market gains, with several ETFs rising over 2% [2] - Conversely, the Huatai-PB ETF and other related ETFs fell by over 4% [2] Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist, Liu Jinjun, suggested that adjusting investment portfolios based on overall policy trends could yield excess returns [4] - Shenwan Hongyuan's chief analyst, Fu Jingtai, presented a two-phase bullish outlook for A-shares, predicting a peak in early 2026 followed by a comprehensive market rally in the second half of 2026 [4] - UBS's head of China equity strategy, Wang Zonghao, forecasted a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors continuing into 2025 [4] Lithium Market Analysis - Recent reports indicated that the lithium carbonate main contract (LC2601) reached a limit-up price of 95,200 yuan/ton on November 17, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for lithium prices in November, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking after price surges [5] - The energy research team at New Lake Futures highlighted that the demand for energy storage will continue to increase within the lithium consumption structure, emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of rising lithium prices on storage demand growth [4]

高盛分析师莉娜・托马斯团队测算显示，9月全球央行合计净购金量达64吨，较8月的21吨实现逾三倍增长，环比激增 204.8%，这一强劲势头有望延续至11月。 现货金价在10月突破每盎司4380美元的历史峰值，即便近期出现回调，截至最新统计仍稳定在4068美元/盎司水平，年内累计 涨幅高达55%，远超全球主要资产平均收益率。 全球经济复苏不均衡引发的增长预期分化、地缘政治冲突导致的风险溢价上升、黄金ETF资金的持续流入，以及市场对美联储 宽松周期的提前定价。黄金与美元资产的负相关性持续强化，2025年美元指数较年初下跌7.8%，而黄金储备在全球央行外汇 资产中的占比已升至18.3%，形成鲜明的反向联动。 高盛集团最新发布的专项报告显示，在季节性购金需求淡季落幕之后，各国央行的黄金增持行动再度进入加速通道。 高盛预测，2024年第四季度至2026年期间，全球央行月均净购金量将稳定在80吨左右。高盛重申2026年底金价将攀升至每盎司 4900美元的目标位，如果私人投资需求持续升温，这一目标存在上修空间。 全球央行连续三年购金超千吨，2025年前三季度累计购金634吨，这一规模已占据全球黄金年产量的三分之一以上。高盛指 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices will continue to decline until 2026 due to a significant supply surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [1] - The forecasted average prices for Brent crude and WTI crude in 2026 are $56 per barrel and $52 per barrel, respectively, which are lower than current forward contract prices of $63 and $60 [1] - The supply surge in 2025-2026 is attributed to long-cycle projects that were delayed during the pandemic and OPEC's decision to lift production cuts [1] Group 2 - Starting in 2027, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to rebound as low prices in 2025-2026 will suppress non-OPEC production, and there will be a lack of new projects due to 15 years of underinvestment [2] - The projected prices for Brent and WTI by the end of 2028 are $80 and $76, respectively [2] - Potential scenarios include Brent prices dropping to the $40 range if non-OPEC supply proves more resilient than expected or if a global recession occurs, while a significant decline in Russian supply could push prices above $70 per barrel [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management released its 2026 investment outlook report, indicating a divergence in central bank policies across major markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The labor market is weak, leading Goldman Sachs to predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026 [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December due to improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce this direction [1]

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that AI-driven innovation will continue to support investor optimism, while global central bank policies, new trade orders, and fiscal risks are creating a complex investment environment [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that disparities in global equity markets may widen, advocating for diversified global equity allocation and a combination of fundamental and quantitative strategies [1] - The report highlights that emerging market stocks have the potential to outperform the global market by 2026, with current forward P/E ratios approximately 40% lower than U.S. stocks, which is below the long-term average [1] Group 2: Private Market Insights - In the private market, Goldman Sachs Asset Management notes a favorable environment for new transactions and exit activities, leading to increased dispersion in private equity fund manager performance [2] - The increase in private market transaction activity will provide limited partners (LPs) with new data to assess the performance of existing and potential managers, aiding in capital allocation decisions [2] - The firm anticipates continued interest from LPs in secondary market investments that are attractive and have shorter durations compared to private equity investments, especially as data science, AI, and automation mature [2]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 黄金价格近期出现回调，引发市场对这一贵金属今年强劲涨势是否已接近尾声的质疑。 4000美元下方似乎有抄底资金支撑，但黄金过去一个月仍累计下跌7.4%。这一表现虽难以让人安心， 但高盛近期重新评估了2026年黄金价格前景，并指出一个可能决定金价下一步走势的关键催化剂。 2025年黄金大涨的背后：收益率下跌+美元走弱 从GDP增长数据来看，美国经济表现良好；然而，失业率上升与通胀反弹等明显问题已显现，将美联储 置于两难境地。 薪资处理公司ADP数据显示，美国就业市场新增岗位数量低于2024年水平。企业裁员人数激增，失业率 升至2021年以来最高水平。与此同时，美国总统特朗普的关税策略推高了进口成本，可能导致通胀上 升。 美国劳工统计局8月报告显示，失业率从7月的3.4%升至4.3%。Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据显 示，截至10月，美国雇主今年已宣布裁员110万人，较2024年同期增长44%。 求职网站Resume.org的一项研究显示，2025年有40%的公司进行了裁员，60%的公司预计2026年将削减 员工。 与此同时， ...

高盛还提到，各国央行可能在今年11月购买大量黄金，这一趋势已持续多年，旨在通过储备多元化来对 冲地缘政治和金融风险。 18日，国际期货黄金报4037美元/盎司。受多重因素影响，金价今年以来已上涨55%。(完) 中新网11月18日电 (记者 宫宏宇)据路透社报道，高盛18日发布报告称，预计到2026年底，金价将达到 4900美元/盎司，若私人投资者继续进行资产多元化，金价可能进一步上涨。 高盛预测2026年底金价将升至4900美元 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...

但油价的下跌将是短暂的。从2027年起，市场基本面将发生逆转。低油价将抑制非OPEC产油国的供应增长，而过去近15年上游投资的持续低迷将开始产 生显著影响。该行预测，市场将在2027年下半年转向供应短缺，推动油价进入上升通道，并预计到2028年底，布伦特原油价格将回升至每桶80美元的长期 均衡水平。 最后的供应浪潮：2026年油价为何下跌？ 高盛预测的短期悲观情绪，核心在于一个明确的数字：2026年，全球石油市场将面临每日200万桶的巨大供应过剩。 报告指出，这波供应浪潮主要来自两个方面。其一，是大量在新冠疫情前做出最终投资决定（FID）的长周期项目。这些项目因疫情而延期，如今正集中 上线投产。其二，是OPEC的战略性增产决策。高盛在模型中假设OPEC将继续其逐步取消减产的路径。 该行指出，近期全球可见石油库存的快速增加（过去90天内每日增加200万桶）已经证实了市场正处于过剩状态。 在供过于求的背景下，价格下跌成为必然。高盛预测2026年布伦特原油的平均价格将为每桶56美元，WTI原油为每桶52美元，这显著低于目前市场约62美 元和59美元的远期价格。报告认为，油价可能在2026年中期触底，届时市场将开始消 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management released its 2026 investment outlook report, indicating a potential divergence in central bank policies across major markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice in 2026 due to a weak labor market [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December, influenced by improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may lead to an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce this direction [1]