The Goldman Sachs Conviction List is a curated list of stocks that the firm's research team believes have a high likelihood of outperforming the market. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global risk-off sentiment affecting various markets, including declines in U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even gold. It highlights the investment strategies of former President Trump, who purchased significant amounts of corporate and municipal bonds during this period [1]. Market Overview - The article notes that the A-share market experienced a collective decline on November 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The total trading volume across the three markets was 1,946.17 billion yuan, an increase of 15.701 billion yuan from the previous day [16]. - Over 4,100 stocks in the market fell, with 63 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 23 stocks were locked, and 17 stocks had consecutive limit-ups, with the maximum being six consecutive limit-ups [16]. Sector Analysis - The lithium battery sector faced a downturn due to profit-taking and rumors regarding price increases being debunked. Additionally, there were reports of a price war in the energy storage sector, with prices dropping by 30% [12]. - The AI application sector saw some stocks rise against the trend, with companies like Rongji Software and Inspur Software performing well [16]. - The semiconductor sector remained active, driven by concerns over supply chain security due to changing Sino-Japanese relations and the upcoming IPOs of domestic companies [16]. Financial Support Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and 12 other departments issued a plan to boost consumption in Beijing, particularly focusing on financial support for automobile loans, including incentives for new energy vehicle purchases [23]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that the main funds saw a net outflow of 87.67 billion yuan, with the largest outflows occurring in the electric equipment sector. Conversely, sectors like media, computing, and communication saw net inflows [26]. - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Liou Shares and Huasheng Tiancai, while companies like Tianshi Materials and Yangguang Electric Power experienced the largest net outflows [26]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The article indicates that sectors such as media, computing, and electronics are leading in performance, while coal, electric equipment, and steel are lagging. The trading heat in sectors like defense, basic chemicals, and agriculture has increased, with some sectors like agriculture and non-bank financials currently at historical low PE percentiles [33].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has secured exclusive rights to negotiate the purchase of Burger King's operations in Japan, with a potential deal valued at approximately Y70bn ($452m) [1] - Affinity Equity Partners has held the master franchise for Burger King in Japan since 2017, aiming to expand the brand's footprint in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - Burger King reported a 4% year-on-year rise in same-store sales in Q3 2025, driven by a 3.1% increase at its locations [2] Group 2 - Burger King is implementing a multi-year "Reclaim the Flame" program, which includes planned investments of up to $700m before the end of 2028 for various improvements [3] - A joint venture with Chinese private equity firm CPE was announced in November 2025, with CPE owning 83% of Burger King China and RBI retaining a 17% stake [4] - The partnership with CPE includes a $350m capital infusion to support new restaurant openings, marketing, and menu innovation [4]

Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant increase in central-bank gold purchases for November, driven by a shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1] - Goldman's estimates indicate central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a notable rise from the 21 tons projected for August, suggesting strong buying momentum through year-end [1] Reporting and Transparency Issues - A large portion of central bank gold purchases remains unreported, with the World Gold Council estimating that only one-third of global central bank buying is reported to the IMF, down from approximately 90% four years ago [2] - China's official monthly disclosures show minimal purchases, with only 1.9 tons reported in August and July, and 2.2 tons in June, leading analysts to believe these figures do not reflect actual buying [3] China's Accumulation Strategy - Société Générale estimates that China could accumulate up to 250 tons of gold this year through trade flows, accounting for over one-third of global central-bank demand [4] - China's strategy involves minimal disclosure of gold purchases to avoid potential repercussions from the U.S. administration, as gold is viewed as a hedge against the U.S. [6] Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - The reluctance to report gold purchases is linked to a desire to prevent front-running in an increasingly illiquid market, with delivery timelines in the London Bullion Market Association extending up to eight weeks [6] - Despite a strong performance in gold prices, institutions are optimistic about continued outperformance, with Goldman projecting a target price of $4,900 for gold by 2026 [7]

Goldman Sachs expects a significant wave of central-bank gold purchases for November. The bank’s outlook anticipates a continued shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks.According to Reuters, Goldman’s latest estimates indicate 64 tons in September, a significant increase from the 21 tons projected for August. The estimate supports strong buying through year-end, as emerging-market central banks continue to purchase.Yet, a large portion of these purchases is ...

【导读】现货黄金遭遇猛烈抛售，失守 4000 美元 / 盎司，随后止跌回升 中国基金报记者 张舟 受美联储鸽派预期减弱等影响，黄金价格多日承压！ 11 月 18 日下午，现货黄金跌破 4000 美元 / 盎司关口，为 11 月 10 日以来首次，日内跌超 1% 。 不过，随后金价止跌回升。截至发稿，现货黄金报 4038.677 美元 / 盎司，近乎平盘。 | 最高价 | 50.500 | 博 | ಲ್ | | 0 | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低价 | 49.337 | 몰 | එ | | 0 K | | 0 | | +14 | 五日 | HK | | 高く | HK | 白天 | | | 叠加 | | | | | | 盘口 | | | 51.023 | | | | | 1.68% | 371 50.478 | 0 | | | | | | | | न्न 50.448 | 0 | | | | | | | | 18:09 50.447 | O | | | | | | | | 118:09 50.460 | 0 | | 5 ...

2025.11. 18 本文字数：1726，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 当地时间18日，澳大利亚主权财富基金未来基金（The Future Fund）发布最新报告，称全球经济 正面临"更频繁、更强烈的新型冲击"的风险日益加剧。作为应对，该基金已提升黄金、主动管理的股 票以及对冲基金的配置比例。 不仅澳大利亚如此，阿塞拜疆的主权财富基金国家石油基金（SOFAZ）在今年上半年净购买黄金总 量达35吨，已达到其投资政策中贵金属配置的上限。在养老基金方面，印度养老金监管机构已在考 虑放宽对黄金投资的限制，拟允许养老金配置黄金交易所交易基金（ETFs）。 世界黄金协会近期发布的数据显示，今年前10个月，全球黄金需求同比增长1%，达到3717吨，以价 值计算则增长41%，达到3840亿美元。前三个季度，投资者创造了222吨的黄金ETF买入量，金条 和金币需求连续第四个季度超过300吨，共同拉动了整体需求的攀升。 展望2026年，高盛在17日的一份报告中表示，预计到2026年底黄金价格将升至每盎司4900美元， 如果私人投资者继续通过黄金分散投资组合，价格可能会进一步上涨。截至记者发稿时，现货黄金价 格约 ...

中证报中证网讯（记者 葛瑶）11月18日，高盛资产管理发布2026年投资展望报告认为，在人工智能投 资持续推进的背景下，美国科技巨头仍将保持增长动能，但"七巨头"内部业绩分化或将加剧。此外，新 兴市场股票有望凭借估值优势和盈利跑赢整体市场。 在美股方面，高盛资管认为"七巨头"凭借强大的核心业务和战略再投资继续扩大市场份额，这些公司强 劲的盈利能力有望为进一步的增长奠定基础。超大规模企业的人工智能资本支出应在2026年持续。然 而，强者更强的趋势并非完全一致，这些大型企业迄今为止表现出的业绩同质性可能出现变化，差异扩 大。 高盛资产管理投资组合经理格雷格·图尔托（Greg Tuorto）表示："小盘股有望实现增长，尤其在国防、 科技、消费以及日益增长的医疗保健领域。然而，较高的波动性和流动性风险需要更优秀的主动管理能 力，以识别高潜力的变革型龙头，并且应对主题过热带来的风险。" 2026年，高盛资管认为新兴市场有跑赢整体市场的可能。其称，2025年，美元走弱、油价下跌、通胀缓 解以及美联储鸽派立场等多重宏观条件支持新兴市场。新兴市场股票目前的远期市盈率较美国股票折价 约40%，低于长期平均水平。鉴于新兴市场强劲 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its export growth, alongside insights into the economic conditions in **South Korea**, **Taiwan**, **Japan**, **Australia**, **New Zealand**, **Vietnam**, **Malaysia**, **Indonesia**, **Philippines**, **Thailand**, and **India** [1][2][17][26][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Export Growth**: - China's export growth forecast has been upgraded due to robust export momentum, with a projected growth rate of over 5% per year, outpacing global growth [1][2]. - The manufacturing sector remains competitive, particularly in emerging sectors like batteries and electric vehicles [1]. 2. **Economic Growth Projections**: - China's GDP growth is expected to slow gradually from 5% this year to 4.5% by 2028, with a current account surplus of 3.9% of GDP in Q3 [2]. - The country is on track to achieve the largest trade surplus globally in decades, posing challenges for other manufactured goods exporters [2]. 3. **Policy and Trade Relations**: - The next Five-Year Plan emphasizes manufacturing and self-reliance, aiming to reduce imports while increasing exports [1]. - A tentative trade truce with the US has provided leverage for China, particularly regarding rare earth minerals [1]. 4. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: - China's domestic demand is facing challenges, particularly in property and non-property investments, which have slowed significantly [12]. - The central government has less incentive to stimulate the economy aggressively in the short term due to near-target GDP growth figures [14]. 5. **Regional Economic Conditions**: - **South Korea**: Faces slow consumption growth due to demographic changes and household debt, with a need for technological advancement in exports [17]. - **Taiwan**: Exports have surged by 50% year-on-year, but investment growth remains low, indicating a narrow base of economic performance [17]. - **Japan**: Sluggish growth in Q3, with easing tariff uncertainties following a visit from US President Trump [21]. - **Australia and New Zealand**: Australia’s inflation has prompted a halt in rate cuts, while New Zealand is expected to see a growth reacceleration [22]. - **Vietnam and Malaysia**: Both countries reported strong GDP growth, driven by industrial activity and exports [26]. Other Important Insights - The report highlights the divergence in economic performance within the ASEAN region, with Vietnam and Malaysia leading in growth while Indonesia and the Philippines face challenges [26]. - The report suggests that the RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD, but this will not significantly impact China's export competitiveness [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in Taiwan and Korea indicates a narrow performance gap, with Taiwan at 47.7 and Korea at 49.4, reflecting broader economic challenges [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China and its regional counterparts.

高盛重申 2026 年底金价达 4900 美元 / 盎司的预期，还指出若私人投资者持续调整投资组合增加黄金配 置，金价有望进一步冲高。而今年迄今金价已累计上涨 55%，涨幅远超往年同期水平，印证了其看涨 逻辑的阶段性兑现。 高盛观察到央行购金热潮延续，各国为分散储备、对冲地缘政治与金融风险持续增持黄金。其数据显示 9 月各国央行购金量达 64 吨，较 8 月的 21 吨大幅增长，且判断 11 月大概率出现大量购金行为，这种 持续性的官方买盘成为金价的重要托底力量。 一方面，市场对美国进一步降息的预期强烈，高盛此前就强调降息周期中金价平均涨幅可达 22%，实 际利率下行趋势正持续为金价提供支撑。另一方面，黄金 ETF 资金流入显著增加，2025 年初前两月全 球主要黄金 ETF 吸金超 120 亿美元，创下 2020 年同期以来新高，资金面的助力进一步放大了金价上涨 动能。 日内收盘，沪金下跌1.33%，报收918.52元/克。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险 ...