以往裁员大致分为两类：一类受投资者欢迎，另一类则遭市场冷遇。前者通常伴随某种 " 战略性重组 " 宣布，往往能推动股价上涨；而若裁员是因销售下滑或成本上升所致，投资者便会抛售股票。 但近期，高盛（ Goldman Sachs ）分析师注意到一个新变化。 高盛分析师指出，最直接的原因是投资者不再相信公司的说辞。他们发现，近期宣布裁员的公司 " 今年 在资本支出、债务和利息费用增速上均高于同行业可比公司，而利润增速却更低 " 。这意味着裁员 " 可 能实际上源于更令人担忧的原因，例如为抵消利息成本上升和盈利能力下降而不得不削减开支 " 。 这一动向尤为值得玩味，因为过去几个月来，炫耀裁员规模和 AI 完成工作的比例已成某种风潮，仿佛 是企业首席执行官（尤其是科技行业）展示其全力押注 AI 的 " 实力宣言 " 。 亚马逊（ Amazon ）的安迪 · 贾西（ Andy Jassy ）、塔吉特（ Target ）首席运营官迈克尔 · 菲德尔克（ Michael Fiddelke ，将于二月出任首席执行官）以及摩根大通（ JPMorgan Chase ）首席财务官杰里米 · 巴纳姆（ Jeremy Barnum ）等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The changing profile of U.S. debt holders is leading to higher and more volatile interest rates, impacting various borrowing costs and raising concerns about the financial system's stability [2]. Changing Profile Of Debt Holders - Foreign governments now hold less than 15% of the Treasury market, a significant decline from over 40% in the early 2010s [3]. - The Federal Reserve has reduced its Treasury holdings by approximately $1.5 trillion in recent years [3]. - Private investors have filled the gap left by foreign governments, but their profit-driven approach has resulted in increased interest rates [4]. - Hedge funds have doubled their presence in the U.S. debt market, contributing to market volatility [4]. Changing Fiscal Priorities - Interest payments on the national debt have surpassed defense spending, with the U.S. now paying more in interest on its national debt, which exceeds $38 trillion, than on national defense [5]. - The rapid increase in national debt, surpassing $38 trillion amid a federal government shutdown, has raised alarms about financial stability [6]. Economic Implications - Economists warn that the $38 trillion debt poses a significant threat to national security and global standing, potentially leading to a "national security crisis" [7]. - Despite concerns, bond vigilantes have not targeted U.S. debt, focusing instead on Japan, with long-term yields remaining under control despite persistent inflation and heavy issuance [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that JPMorgan's long position in Weichai Power Co., Ltd. H-shares has decreased from 9.16% to 8.56% as of December 23, 2025 [1]

据香港交易所披露，摩根大通（JPMorgan）对香港交易及结算所有限公司的多头持仓比例于2025年12 月19日从6.99%增至7.02%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that JPMorgan's long position in Weichai Power Co., Ltd. - H shares has decreased from 9.16% to 8.56% as of December 23, 2025 [1]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华尔街见闻 摩根大通表示，在经历了经济与金融市场跌宕起伏的一年后，劳动力市场已现降温迹象。2026年开局预 计将较为低迷，但随后会逐渐好转。 该行经济学家在本月早些时候发布的一份预测报告中指出，2025年就业增长动能减弱，主要是由于特朗 普的关税及贸易政策引发了商业不确定性。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）在报告中表示："因此，企业无论是制定长 期还是短期规划都困难重重，裁员率和招聘率均维持在低位。当企业对未来半年的局势感到迷茫时，他 们不愿在扩充或缩减人员编制上采取大动作。" 摩根大通还补充道，特朗普在移民打击和驱逐行动上的力度超出了预期。 劳动力供给的减少，加上相对持平的劳动参与率，意味着维持失业率稳定所需的月度新增就业人数可能 从5万人骤降至仅1.5万人。尽管这一"平衡点"降低了，但失业率仍将缓慢攀升。 但经济学家预测，下半年劳动力市场将触底反弹。利好因素包括更具连贯性的关税政策、特朗普《大而 美法案》带来的减税效应，以及美联储的进一步降息。 费罗利表示："我们认为各项支撑因素正在集聚 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Dynamics - The year has been marked by high-stakes bets and rapid reversals, with significant volatility across various markets, including record highs in gold prices and fluctuations in mortgage giants [1] - Investors have heavily bet on changing political landscapes, inflated balance sheets, and fragile market narratives, leading to substantial stock market gains and crowded yield trades [1] - The geopolitical shift has significantly benefited European defense stocks, with companies like Rheinmetall AG and Leonardo SpA seeing stock price increases of approximately 150% and over 90% respectively [4][5] Group 2: AI and Technology Investments - Scion Asset Management disclosed protective put options on Nvidia and Palantir, raising concerns about the high valuations and spending plans of major AI players [2][3] - Nvidia's stock price fell significantly after the disclosure, reflecting the market's sensitivity to potential overvaluation in the AI sector [2] Group 3: Defense Sector Changes - The defense sector, previously avoided by asset managers due to ESG concerns, has seen a paradigm shift, with funds now focusing on defense-related investments [5] - A basket of European defense stocks has risen over 70% in 2025, indicating a strong market interest in this sector [5] Group 4: Currency and Alternative Assets - Concerns over heavy debt burdens in major economies have led investors to favor alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, while showing reduced enthusiasm for government bonds and the dollar [6][7] - The narrative of "currency debasement" gained traction, particularly during periods of political instability, leading to record highs in both gold and Bitcoin [6][7] Group 5: South Korean Market Performance - The South Korean stock market has surged over 70% in 2025, driven by political efforts to boost the capital market and the global AI trend [8] - Despite the market's strong performance, local retail investors have been net sellers, indicating a lack of confidence in the domestic market [8] Group 6: Japanese Bond Market - The Japanese bond market has shifted from being a "widowmaker" trade to a favorable environment for short sellers, with benchmark yields rising significantly [10][11] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed 2%, marking a significant change in the market dynamics [10] Group 7: Credit Market Developments - The credit market has seen substantial returns from strategic actions taken by funds like Pimco and King Street Capital Management, particularly in distressed situations [12] - A series of smaller but concerning events in the credit market have raised alarms about industry practices and borrower capabilities [17][18] Group 8: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have experienced a significant stock price increase of 367% from January to September 2025, driven by optimism regarding potential privatization [14][15] - The market remains speculative about the timing and feasibility of an IPO for these companies, despite the excitement surrounding their potential release from government control [14][15] Group 9: Turkish Lira and Emerging Markets - The Turkish lira has depreciated approximately 17% in 2025, highlighting the risks associated with high-yield investments in emerging markets amid political turmoil [16]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional banking sector is experiencing a resurgence, with major U.S. banks outperforming alternative asset management firms, as regulatory changes and market conditions shift in their favor [1][4]. Group 1: Performance of Major Banks - The average stock price of the six largest U.S. banks has increased by over 45% this year, marking the strongest performance in a generation [1]. - Major banks are expanding their loan portfolios at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, aided by a reduction in regulatory pressures [5][8]. - Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and other top banks are significantly increasing their lending activities, narrowing the gap with private credit competitors [9][10]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The second Trump administration is rolling back post-financial crisis regulations, which had previously restricted banks, allowing them to compete more effectively against non-bank lenders [4][5]. - Recent regulatory changes have provided banks with more flexibility in issuing leveraged loans and dealing with cryptocurrencies, enhancing their competitive position [5][10]. - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has seen significant cuts, further easing regulatory burdens on banks [5]. Group 3: Competition with Alternative Asset Managers - Alternative asset management firms like Blackstone and Apollo have seen substantial growth in their credit assets, with Blackstone's credit and insurance assets exceeding $432 billion, a 67% increase since the end of 2021 [4]. - Despite their growth, banks are regaining their footing in the lending market, with a collective increase in loan amounts that challenges the dominance of private equity firms [9][10]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, as banks are now actively countering the recruitment of their top talent by private equity firms, indicating a reversal in fortunes [11].

格隆汇12月29日｜据Cointelegraph，摩根大通近期冻结两间稳定币初创公司BlindPay和Kontigo的银行帐 户，疑与委内瑞拉有关。摩通发言人强调，是次冻结纯粹出于合规考虑，与稳定币公司毫无关系。该两 间受影响的初创公司均获得Y Combinator的支持，主要在拉丁美洲营运，透过数码支付公司Checkbook 使用摩根大通的银行服务。 Checkbook总裁PJ Gupta解释，由于拒付率显著上升，BlindPay和Kontigo的 帐户受到影响，客户快速注册，导致纠纷大幅增加，最终促使银行暂时冻结了有关帐户。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook in the macro and financial sector is (weakening) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is weakening as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and is past its peak [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Trump ordered an air strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, escalating US tensions with the largest economy in West Africa, and the move is related to global energy pattern changes and strategic mineral supply - chain competition [1] - The US economy shows a "K - shaped divide", with large enterprises profiting from the AI wave while small businesses face difficulties due to inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade, exacerbating employment and social inequality [1] - Large tech companies are moving over $120 billion in data - center spending off their balance sheets via SPVs, raising concerns about financial risks in AI investment [1] - Mark Strouse from JPMorgan believes that in 2025, investors only need AI exposure, but in 2026, actual deals and order accumulation are required [1] - A new La Nina is forming, the fifth in the past six years, which will disrupt the global weather system and pose risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Jim Rickards predicts that factors driving the metal market up will continue next year, with gold possibly reaching $10,000 and silver $200 [1] - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the one - year silver swap spread at - 7.18%, showing a shortage of physical silver [1] - Fujitsu will join a project led by SoftBank to develop next - generation memory for AI and supercomputers, aiming to revive Japan's memory production technology [1] Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs believes global stocks are in the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with a 15% total return (including dividends) in 2026 [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to pre - 2008 financial crisis signals [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to boost its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a growing K - shaped divide among US consumers [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun thinks China will win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]