格隆汇12月21日｜特朗普政府的美联储主席人选争夺已进入白热化阶段，哈塞特与沃什两位领跑者均面 临对其独立性与可信度的质疑，而美联储理事沃勒则作为政策履历扎实的"黑马"异军突起。华尔街巨头 深度介入博弈，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙等重量级人物频繁与政府沟通表态，候选人阵营间的游 说与较量不断升温。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has abandoned the second round of layoffs for the second half of the year, with M&A revenue in Q2 soaring by 71% year-on-year [1] - JPMorgan plans to increase bonuses for its investment banking and trading departments by approximately 15% [1] - The financial services sector in Hong Kong has fully recovered, ranking first globally, driven by government support and policies in the Greater Bay Area [1] Group 2 - There is a fierce competition for ESG talent among major financial institutions, with many stating that they have budgets approved but cannot find suitable candidates [2] - The demand for ESG-related positions is increasing, with firms like Ernst & Young offering salaries as high as 50K for ESG roles [3][4] - The lack of professionals with both financial expertise and ESG knowledge is evident, making such individuals highly sought after in the job market [7] Group 3 - The Shanghai Human Resources Bureau has included the CFA and Sustainable Investing Certificate in its list of recognized qualifications, providing benefits for holders [6] - The global sustainable finance market has surpassed $35 trillion, with the U.S. alone accounting for $17 trillion, highlighting the financial impact of ESG [15] - By 2025, over 60 countries will implement mandatory ESG disclosures, affecting more than 80% of multinational companies [16] Group 4 - The job market for ESG roles is expanding, with positions such as ESG investment analysts and green finance product managers emerging, offering salaries ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 [25] - Hong Kong's government has initiated a "talent grab" plan to attract ESG professionals, recognizing the shortage in this area [26] - Financial professionals with ESG knowledge are considered a scarce resource, making them highly competitive in the job market [28] Group 5 - The CFA Institute has introduced the Sustainable Investment Certificate, which is recognized for its high industry credibility [41] - Local governments are incentivizing ESG practices, with rewards for companies achieving high ESG ratings and support for ESG talent [42] - Practical experience in ESG, combined with knowledge and certification, is essential for professionals looking to enhance their employability in this field [38][50]

Group 1 - Investing in blue-chip stocks is recommended for building wealth due to their proven business models and stability across economic cycles [1][2] - Blue-chip companies typically have strong balance sheets and generate steady cash flow, which supports dividends, share buybacks, and long-term growth [2][8] - These stocks tend to be less volatile compared to speculative ventures, making them a stable choice for investment portfolios [3][8] Group 2 - JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States, with over $3.8 trillion in assets under management, providing advantages of scale and a strong balance sheet [5][6] - The bank has successfully navigated various economic environments, benefiting from higher interest income during the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes from 2022 to 2023 [6] - BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, managing over $13.5 trillion in assets, which generates significant recurring revenue through management fees [7]

Core Insights - Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, BlackRock, and Fidelity, have chosen Ethereum as their preferred blockchain for tokenization, indicating a significant trend in the financial industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Adoption of Ethereum - JPMorgan's launch of the OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY) follows BlackRock's USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund and Fidelity's Treasury Digital Fund, all utilizing Ethereum for tokenized money market funds (MMFs) [2]. - The largest funds from these firms each manage assets exceeding $1 trillion, contributing to a broader U.S. MMF market valued at over $7.5 trillion [2]. Group 2: Significance of Ethereum - The convergence of major asset management firms on Ethereum highlights its advantages, such as decentralization, a robust developer ecosystem, and regulatory familiarity, as opposed to private blockchains or newer networks [3]. - Ethereum's existing infrastructure supports asset managers in creating compliant and liquid on-chain offerings, reinforcing its position in the tokenization landscape [4]. Group 3: Alternative Blockchain Considerations - Despite Ethereum's dominance, alternative blockchains should not be overlooked; Provenance holds a significant share of the on-chain private credit market, and Polygon has seen substantial corporate bond issuance [5]. - Many companies developing tokenization solutions are adopting a blockchain-agnostic approach, indicating ongoing interest in both public and private networks [6]. Group 4: Future Implications - As tokenization gains traction on Wall Street, the current choices of infrastructure may establish standards for future on-chain markets, with Ethereum leading the way [7]. - JPMorgan's use of Ethereum for MONY contrasts with its deployment of other tokenized assets on its proprietary Kynexis platform, showcasing a diverse strategy in asset tokenization [8].

Core Insights - The traditional stock-bond balanced portfolio has recorded double-digit gains this year, marking its best performance since 2019, yet funds continue to flow into concentrated large-cap tech stocks and thematic trades [1][2] - Despite the strong performance of diversified strategies in 2025, investor focus remains on AI-driven narratives, leading to a neglect of balanced investment strategies [3][4] Diversification Strategy Performance - In 2025, diversified investment strategies achieved their strongest performance in years, but this success has largely gone unnoticed amid the AI hype [3][7] - BCA Research's chief strategist Marko Papic emphasizes that the key to success in 2025 lies in global diversification rather than solely focusing on stocks [4] Fund Flows and Market Trends - According to JPMorgan data, balanced and multi-asset fund categories, including public risk parity funds and 60/40 portfolios, have experienced capital outflows for 13 consecutive quarters until a mild rebound this fall [5] - Funds are increasingly moving towards concentrated large-cap tech exposures and thematic trades, as well as direct hedging tools like gold [6] Market Rotation and Stock Performance - This year has seen a market rotation, with value-oriented stock ETFs attracting over $56 billion in inflows, marking the second-largest annual inflow since 2000 [9] - International stocks have rebounded due to favorable fiscal reforms and a weaker dollar, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in the fourth quarter [10] Future Outlook - Some strategists believe this shift will continue into 2026, with expectations of expanding U.S. corporate earnings and strong performance from small-cap and international stocks [11] - JPMorgan's David Lebovitz is leaning towards emerging market bonds and UK government bonds while maintaining selective exposure to U.S. stocks and AI stocks [12] Cautionary Signals - There are indications of potential bubbles, with Bank of America noting a strong buying impulse in 2025, the second strongest in nearly a century [13] - Manulife John Hancock Investments' Emily Roland warns of increasing disconnection between market performance and fundamentals, suggesting that this year has been a dream year for short-term investors [14]

Core Insights - The year 2025 has seen a strong performance of diversified investment strategies, with inflation data supporting their value as U.S. inflation came in below expectations, leading to a rare simultaneous rise in both stocks and bonds [1][3] - Despite the success of diversified strategies, funds continue to flow towards concentrated large-cap tech stocks and thematic trades, raising concerns about the risks of abandoning diversification at a potentially critical time [1][2] Group 1: Performance of Diversified Strategies - Diversified investment strategies achieved their strongest performance in years, with traditional balanced portfolios recording double-digit gains, marking the best performance since 2019 [1][3] - A global allocation fund under Cambria Investments, holding 29 ETFs, reported its best annual performance since inception, outperforming the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Trends - Investors have been moving away from balanced strategies, with funds flowing out of balanced and multi-asset fund categories for 13 consecutive quarters until a mild rebound this fall [3][4] - The shift in funds is towards concentrated large-cap tech stocks, thematic trades from core energy to quantum computing, and direct hedging tools like gold [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market has seen a rotation, with value stock ETFs attracting over $56 billion in inflows this year, the second-largest annual inflow since 2000, while Cambria's global value ETF surged approximately 50% [5] - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks in the fourth quarter, and some strategists expect this trend to continue into 2026 [5] - J.P. Morgan's David Lebovitz is leaning towards emerging market bonds and UK government bonds while maintaining selective exposure to U.S. stocks and AI stocks [6] Group 4: Cautionary Signals - Signs of a bubble are emerging, with Bank of America noting a strong buying impulse in 2025, and concerns about the disconnect between market performance and fundamentals are growing [7] - Despite abandoning the classic 60/40 allocation, many investors have not given up on multi-asset approaches, seeking opportunities in alternative assets such as private credit, infrastructure investments, and hedge funds [8]

Market Overview - The Dow is up by 0.5% today, but remains in the red for the week [1] - The NASDAQ has increased by over 1% today, turning positive for the week, while the S&P 500 is up just under 1% [2] - The bond market shows a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield up by 3 basis points today [3] Sector Performance - Technology has been a strong performer this week, with large-cap tech (XLK) up by 2% [4] - Consumer discretionary, led by Tesla and Amazon, is up by 1.3%, while energy has seen a decline of about 3% [5] - Notable stock movements include Nvidia up by 3.74% and Goldman Sachs up by 2% [6] Economic Outlook - Markets are reacting to cooler inflation data and a strong growth backdrop anticipated for 2026 [7] - Investors are focusing on potential rate cuts, earnings, and sector rotation as they prepare for the new year [7] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 175 basis points from the highs, indicating a move closer to a neutral rate [13] Fiscal Stimulus and Growth - Significant fiscal stimulus is expected to impact the economy in 2026, including corporate and personal tax changes [16] - The potential for increased capital expenditures (capex) is anticipated due to new corporate stimulus measures [16] AI and Technology Sector - The AI theme remains volatile, with a shift from broad market exposure to more selective stock picking expected in 2026 [18] - The MAG 7 tech stocks have shown mixed performance, with some like Alphabet and Nvidia performing well, while others like Microsoft and Meta have lagged [19] Small Cap Stocks - Small caps have recently rebounded, but there are concerns about sustainability given past performance trends [23] - The current small-cap index composition differs significantly from historical norms, leading to skepticism about future growth [25] Retail Sector Insights - Rivian's stock has been upgraded by Wedbush, citing 2026 as a pivotal year for the company [27] - KB Home reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed estimates, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [29] - Nike's second-quarter results reflect a turbulent year for retailers, with uneven performance across the sector [31] Honeywell's Performance - Honeywell's stock has underperformed compared to the broader industrial market, largely due to limited exposure to AI and data center growth [90] - The company is expected to benefit from the spin-off of its aerospace business, which could enhance its market position [92] EV Market Outlook - The EV market is facing headwinds, including the expiration of tax credits, but long-term demand is expected to remain strong [74] - ChargePoint's CEO emphasizes the importance of innovation and product development to drive growth in the EV charging sector [78] - The commercial and fleet markets for EVs are anticipated to grow as businesses seek lower total cost of ownership [86]

Latin American companies and governments are issuing debt at a pace that has far exceeded expectations, with bond sales reaching record levels despite a volatile global backdrop tied to President Donald Trump's return to the White House.Issuers from the region have sold just over $184 billion in international bonds so far this year, nearly 50% more than in 2024 and the highest amount in data going back to 2014, according to Bloomberg. Bankers say it is likely the strongest year for Latin American bond issua ...

Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with the XLF gaining 13% this year and over 65% in the last three years [1] - Major banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs have reached new all-time highs in December [1] Outlook for 2026 - There is optimism that the strength in financials could continue into 2026, particularly if the Federal Reserve maintains an accommodative rate policy [2][3] - Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate mortgage activity, benefiting both large and regional banks [3][4] Impact of Interest Rates - Lower rates are anticipated to increase mortgage refinancing and purchasing activity, which in turn supports ancillary businesses related to home ownership [4][5] - The current environment may not encourage savings in money markets, but there remains a significant amount of capital in money markets that could rotate back into equities [6] Regional vs. Large Banks - Regional banks are more vulnerable to issues in commercial real estate, which is a significant concern due to the resetting of loans issued before 2020 at higher rates [7][8] - Large banks are better positioned to withstand potential challenges in 2026 compared to regional banks [9] Technological Adaptation - There is a call for banks to invest in decentralized finance technologies, such as blockchain and stable coins, to remain competitive in the future [10][11] - The shift towards decentralized finance is seen as a long-term trend that banks need to prepare for now [11]

Core Viewpoint - The potential exclusion of Michael Saylor's Strategy from MSCI and other major stock indexes could lead to a significant loss in demand for its shares, estimated at up to $9 billion, and negatively impact the broader cryptocurrency sector [1][8]. Group 1: MSCI's Proposal and Industry Impact - MSCI proposed to exclude companies with digital asset holdings representing 50% or more of their total assets from its global benchmarks, arguing they resemble investment funds [2]. - The exclusion could lead to significant outflows from passive asset managers, who hold approximately 30% of a large-cap company's free float, which is particularly concerning for the digital asset treasury (DAT) industry [5]. - Analysts suggest that if MSCI excludes DAT companies, other index providers are likely to follow suit, potentially affecting the eligibility of DATs in equity indexes overall [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications for Strategy - Shares of Strategy, which began as MicroStrategy, saw a 3,000% increase after starting to buy bitcoin in 2020, but have since fallen about 43% this year due to a slump in cryptocurrency values [3]. - Analysts estimate that $2.5 billion of Strategy's market value is derived from MSCI, with an additional $5.5 billion from other indexes, indicating a substantial financial risk if excluded [8]. - JPMorgan projects that Strategy could face $2.8 billion in outflows if excluded from MSCI, escalating to $8.8 billion if removed from other indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and various Russell indexes [8]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment and Reactions - Strategy's leadership, including Michael Saylor, has downplayed concerns regarding potential exclusion, although they acknowledge that it could lead to $2.8 billion in stock liquidation and "chill" the industry [6]. - The proposed exclusion could effectively shut DATs out of the $15 trillion passive-investment market, significantly weakening their competitive position [7].