JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is currently the largest bank in the USA by total assets. Because of this status, JPMorgan is naturally able to feel the pulse of the country’s economy. The bank’s latest earnings conference call – for the fourth quarter of 2025 – was held earlier this week and contained useful insights on the state of American consumers and businesses. The bottom-line is this: the US economy remains resilient, but long-term risks remain.What’s shown between the two horizontal lines below are quot ...

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Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported earnings that fell short of expectations, leading to stock pressure and concerns over cost management and profitability amid policy uncertainties [2][3][6] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for JPMorgan was $4.63, below the expected $4.85, with revenue at approximately $45.8 billion, missing the anticipated $46.2 billion [2][6] - The costs associated with the Apple Card deal significantly impacted the earnings miss, affecting stock performance [2][6] Market Reaction - Despite surpassing some expectations in fourth-quarter earnings, JPMorgan's stock fell by 3%, contributing to a 0.3% drop in the S&P 500 index [3] - The market's reaction indicates concerns regarding the bank's ability to manage costs effectively [3] Financial Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 15.25, suggesting a reasonable valuation, while the price-to-sales ratio is 3.30, indicating the value placed on its revenue [4] - A negative enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of -11.06 raises concerns about cash flow generation [4] - The earnings yield is 6.56%, providing insight into the return on investment for shareholders [4] Debt and Liquidity - The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.38, indicating a moderate level of debt compared to equity [5][6] - A high current ratio of 9.89 suggests strong liquidity, positioning JPMorgan well to cover short-term liabilities [5][6]

Market Performance - Hong Kong's HSI traded at 27,037, up 188 points or 0.7% [2][4] - Nikkei increased by 864 points or 1.6% to 54,413 [2][4] - Shanghai and Shenzhen indices rose by 1.11% and 1.83% respectively [2][4] - South Korea's Kospi was down 4 points around 9 am IST [2][4] US Market Influence - US stocks retreated on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 pulling back from a record high [2][4] - Losses were primarily driven by banking shares after JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported investment-banking fees below guidance [2][4] - December inflation data did not significantly alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts [2][4] Bank Earnings Outlook - A heavy slate of bank earnings is being tracked, with results from major banks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley expected soon [3][4] - The banking group is projected to achieve its second-highest annual profit on record, aided by policy changes under the Trump administration [3][4] Tariff Ruling Risks - The potential US Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's global tariffs is a key risk factor [3][4] - An unfavorable ruling could lead to a negative market response, although the administration has alternative legal routes to enforce tariffs [3][4] Commodity Market Trends - Brent crude prices extended gains, marking the largest four-day rise since June due to heightened rhetoric around Iran [3][4] - Silver prices continued to rise, achieving the strongest three-day rally on record [3][4]

Core Insights - The Q4 earnings season began positively with JPMorgan and Delta Air Lines reporting favorable results, although both stocks fell over 2% due to cautious economic outlooks [1][2] JPMorgan's Q4 Results - JPMorgan reported Q4 sales of $45.79 billion, a 7% increase from $42.76 billion in the previous year, surpassing expectations of $45.69 billion [4] - The bank's net income was $13 billion, with adjusted EPS of $5.23, exceeding Q4 earnings expectations of $4.87 per share by 7% and rising 9% from $4.81 a year ago [6] - A 17% increase in market revenue, driven by fixed income, currencies, commodities, and equities, was a key growth factor, while investment banking continued to struggle [4][6] - JPMorgan's full-year sales increased 3% to $185.6 billion, with full-year EPS rising 1% to $20.02 [10] Delta Air Lines' Q4 Results - Delta's Q4 sales rose 3% to $16 billion, exceeding estimates of $15.62 billion, despite a 2% revenue reduction due to the U.S. government shutdown [8] - The airline reported a net income of $1.22 billion, with adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly above estimates of $1.53 but down from $1.85 in the previous year [9] - Delta's full-year sales reached a record $63.4 billion, with management highlighting strong free cash flow generation of $4.6 billion [11] Economic Insights - JPMorgan's CEO noted the resilience of the U.S. economy but warned of geopolitical tensions and potential inflation challenges [2] - Delta indicated a bifurcation in consumer spending, with high-income travelers maintaining strong spending while price-sensitive consumers show signs of fatigue [3] Future Guidance - JPMorgan expects FY26 net interest income to rise to $103 billion, with projected sales of $190.86 billion and EPS of $20.97 [10] - Delta anticipates FY26 EPS between $6.50 and $7.50, indicating over 20% growth, with Q1 EPS expected at $0.50-$0.90 [12] Valuation and Investment Considerations - Both JPMorgan and Delta are considered attractively valued, with JPM trading at 15X forward earnings and Delta at 9X [13] - Analysts may find it appealing to buy into these stocks post-earnings selloff, provided economic outlooks and EPS revisions remain stable [14]

Market Performance - On January 13, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.8% to 49,191.99 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.19% to 6,963.74 points, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.1% to 23,709.87 points [2][4] - The financial sector experienced significant declines, with JPMorgan Chase leading the drop, closing down over 4%. Other financial stocks such as Morgan Stanley fell by over 2%, while Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all dropped by more than 1% [4] Sector Performance - Large-cap technology stocks showed mixed results, with Google rising over 1%, while Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft fell by more than 1%. The semiconductor sector saw an overall increase, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 0.95%, reaching a historical high [6] - Energy stocks collectively rose, with ExxonMobil increasing by nearly 2%, and other companies like Schlumberger and Occidental Petroleum also seeing gains of over 1% [6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. generally declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 1.86%. Notable declines included BrainCo down over 26% and WeRide down over 10% [9] Precious Metals - The international silver price reached a new historical high, surpassing $89 per ounce, with an increase of over 2% on January 13. Since the beginning of 2026, the silver price has accumulated a rise of over 20% in less than 10 trading days [10]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks ended lower, primarily driven by declines in financial shares due to concerns over President Trump's credit-card proposal [10] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.21 points (0.80%) to 49,191.99, while the S&P 500 lost 13.53 points (0.19%) to 6,963.74 [10] - The Nasdaq Composite decreased by 24.03 points (0.10%) to 23,709.87 [10] Financial Sector Performance - Shares of Visa fell by 4.5%, Mastercard dropped by 3.8%, and the financial sector overall declined by 1.8%, leading the S&P 500's losses [10] - JPMorgan's shares ended down by 4.2%, despite reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, attributed to a drop in investment banking fees [10][5] - Other major banks also experienced declines ahead of their quarterly earnings reports, although analysts expect stronger results for the last quarter of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - A report on U.S. inflation for December met expectations, which helped to stabilize market expectations for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year [10] - Tim Ghriskey, a senior portfolio strategist, noted that financials are being negatively impacted by Trump's credit-card proposal, which could hurt profits for financial companies [2] Earnings Season Insights - The fourth-quarter U.S. earnings season unofficially began with results from JPMorgan and other companies, with expectations of positive earnings news overall [6] - Oliver Pursche, a senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, indicated that there may be upward revisions for 2026 earnings forecasts [6] Market Dynamics - Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of 1.15-to-1, with 577 new highs and 77 new lows [11] - On the Nasdaq, 2,068 stocks rose while 2,701 fell, resulting in a declining issues ratio of 1.31-to-1 [11] - Trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.68 billion shares, surpassing the 20-day average of approximately 16.4 billion shares [11]

Group 1 - Proposed credit card interest rate cap policy could severely impact the $70 billion credit card debt securitization market, but investors believe the likelihood of implementation is low, resulting in a muted market reaction [1] - Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that a 10% interest rate cap would significantly reduce the excess spread, a key profitability metric, to levels comparable to those during the 2008 financial crisis [1] - The credit card asset-backed securities market is highly sensitive to the interest rate cap policy, which could block high-interest borrowers from accessing credit cards, leading to a significant contraction in the market [2][3] Group 2 - If the interest rate cap is enforced, banks are expected to tighten credit issuance, leading to a decline in overall loan volumes and a reduction in the issuance of credit card asset-backed securities [3] - Current data shows that credit card ABS has dropped from a peak of 36% of total ABS issuance in 2009 to just 9% [2] - The stock market reacted negatively, with significant declines in shares of banks and credit card issuers, particularly those with a higher proportion of low-quality borrowers [4] Group 3 - Analysts predict that if the interest rate cap is made permanent, it could lead to systemic adjustments in credit card companies' strategies, including reduced credit issuance to non-prime consumers and increased fees [4][5] - Major banks like Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Bank of America could see a decline in earnings per share ranging from 1% to 10% due to the proposed policy [5] - The potential impact on credit card companies' book values could be severe, with estimates suggesting declines of 20% to 40% for certain firms under the temporary cap [5][6]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission will introduce a comprehensive management approach for the recycling of new energy vehicle batteries, increasing restrictions and phasing out outdated processes and equipment [1][10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms from 2026 to 2028, aiming for over 450 influential platforms and a significant increase in industrial equipment connections to over 120 million by 2028 [1][10] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea starting January 14, 2026, with rates ranging from 53.3% to 57% for US companies and 4.4% to 113.8% for South Korean companies [1][10] Group 2 - UBS Group's 26th Greater China Conference highlighted three key factors supporting the upward trend of the Chinese stock market: improved corporate earnings growth, attractive valuations, and continuous inflow of domestic and foreign capital [1][10] - The China Performance Industry Association reported that the number of commercial performances in 2025 is expected to reach 640,400, a year-on-year increase of 6.58%, with box office revenue projected at 61.655 billion yuan, up 6.39% [1][10] - Guizhou Moutai announced its market-oriented operation plan for 2026, which includes a dynamic pricing mechanism based on market conditions, with plans to lower prices for several products [1][10][16] Group 3 - Rongbai Technology signed a procurement cooperation agreement with CATL to supply 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials from Q1 2026 to 2031, with a total sales amount exceeding 120 billion yuan [1][10] - Fulin Precision plans to raise approximately 3.175 billion yuan by issuing shares to introduce CATL as a strategic investor, aiming to deepen cooperation in the new energy sector [1][10][16] - China Power Construction Corporation signed two major contracts totaling approximately 15.589 billion yuan [1][16]

Core Insights - GoodRx is being presented by JPMorgan's health care services division, indicating a focus on the health care sector and its investment opportunities [1] Company Overview - GoodRx is represented by CEO Wendy Barnes and CFO Chris McGinnis, highlighting the leadership team involved in the company's strategic direction [1]