Group 1 - Li Ning (02331.HK) saw a significant increase of over 5% in early trading, reaching a new high of 20.62 HKD, marking a reversal trend with an increase of over 20% since early December last year, and currently has a total market capitalization of 52.8 billion HKD [1] - Citigroup reported that Li Ning's retail sales for the Li Ning brand experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year in the last quarter of last year, which was in line with their expectations. They anticipate a low single-digit growth in overall sales for the group for the year [1] - Morgan Stanley noted an increasing market expectation for Li Ning's performance turnaround and rated the stock as "Overweight" [1] - Haitong International expressed optimism about Li Ning's long-term brand strength and consumer perception, raising the target price to 22.3 HKD [1] - Daiwa reiterated a "Buy" rating, believing that Li Ning's recovery momentum is progressing [1]

大和发表研报指，重申李宁"买入"评级及目标价24港元，相信李宁的复苏势头正在推进，并重申其作为 中国运动服饰品牌的首选标的。在分析师电话会议中，李宁管理层指2025年营收可能略超先前按年持平 之指引，而净利润率将达到强劲的高单位数(接近10%)。这些说法大致符合大和预测，应促使市场共识 对预测进行小幅上调。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q4 2025 revenue met expectations, with a slight year-on-year decline in overall revenue. Offline channel revenue decreased in the low single digits, while e-commerce revenue remained flat [1] - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to continue its steady growth, with 1,518 stores by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a net increase of 50 stores since the beginning of the year. The inventory turnover ratio is projected to be between 4 and 5, indicating a healthy level [2] - For 2025, the company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.742 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year decline. Revenue is anticipated to show slight growth [2] - In 2026, the company plans to enhance its marketing efforts and test new store formats, projecting a revenue growth of 6.5% and a net profit increase of 5.8% to 2.901 billion yuan [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29.269 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2.742 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.6 times [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 10.6% by 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's stock has seen a rise of over 5% in early trading, reflecting positive market sentiment following Morgan Stanley's report on the company's expected revenue growth and stable profit margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Li Ning is expected to achieve moderate revenue growth for the previous year, an improvement from prior guidance which indicated flat growth [1] - The net profit margin is projected to remain stable at a high single-digit level, suggesting an upward adjustment in market consensus for the company's net profit [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that Li Ning's net profit for the previous year will reach 2.75 billion RMB, indicating a potential year-on-year increase in net profit margin for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Sales figures for Li Ning have been below expectations year-to-date, with a greater discount rate compared to the same period last year [1] - The cold weather around the Spring Festival shopping season may accelerate sales growth, providing a potential boost to the company's performance [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Despite increased advertising and promotional expenditures and higher discount rates, Li Ning's operating profit margin remained stable year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [1] - The increase in stock purchases by major shareholders last year suggests rising market expectations for Li Ning's performance turnaround [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's stock has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 5% in early trading, reflecting positive market sentiment following Morgan Stanley's report on the company's expected revenue growth and stable profit margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Li Ning's revenue for the previous year will achieve moderate growth, an improvement from earlier guidance which indicated flat performance [1] - The net profit margin is expected to remain stable at a high single-digit level, suggesting an upward adjustment in market consensus for the company's net profit [1] - The projected net profit for Li Ning is estimated at 2.75 billion RMB, indicating a potential year-on-year increase in net profit margin for the second half of the previous year [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Conditions - Year-to-date sales for Li Ning have been below expectations, with discount levels greater than those of the same period last year [1] - However, the cold weather around the Spring Festival shopping season may accelerate sales growth [1] - Despite increased advertising and promotional spending, Li Ning's operating profit margin remained flat year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The increase in shareholding by major stakeholders last year has led Morgan Stanley to believe that market expectations for Li Ning's performance will rise [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's retail performance showed a low single-digit decline in sales for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, with offline channels experiencing a mid-single-digit decline and e-commerce remaining flat. The total number of sales points in China was 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in sales compared to the third quarter, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels. The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, and new product launches were frequent, including the opening of flagship stores and outdoor stores [2][3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from effective cost control and government subsidies, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan respectively [2][11] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - For the fourth quarter, the company's sales point performance (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a low single-digit decline year-on-year. The offline channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while e-commerce remained stable. The total number of sales points decreased by 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] Sales and Discounts - The fourth quarter saw a low single-digit decline in sales, which improved compared to the third quarter. Retail and wholesale channels experienced low and mid-single-digit declines respectively, while e-commerce remained flat. The discount levels deepened slightly, with inventory turnover improving to 4-5 months [4][5] New Products and Store Formats - The company launched a series of new products in the fourth quarter, including innovative running shoes designed for wet weather. Additionally, the company opened its first outdoor specialty store and a flagship "Dragon Store" in Beijing, targeting the middle-class consumer segment [5][11] Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -13.1%, +7.0%, and +17.3% [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [2][14]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q25 GMV performance met expectations, and the net profit margin guidance for 2025 has been raised. The overall revenue is expected to achieve positive growth, with a net profit margin projected to be in the high-single-digit range or above, which is better than previous expectations [4][11]. - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its core wholesale channels and is actively testing new store formats, such as Dragon Stores and Outdoor Stores, to enhance consumer engagement and brand positioning [13][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025 at RMB 28.79 billion, 2026 at RMB 30.10 billion, and 2027 at RMB 31.69 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 0.4%, 4.5%, and 5.3% respectively [7][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 2.64 billion in 2025, RMB 2.72 billion in 2026, and RMB 3.01 billion in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -12.4%, +3.2%, and +10.5% [7][14]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 17.2x for 2025, 16.7x for 2026, and 15.1x for 2027 [7][14]. Market and Product Insights - The report highlights that the running category saw mid-single-digit growth in 4Q25, although this was a notable slowdown compared to the first half of the year. The company plans to increase investment in the running category to gain market share [12]. - The basketball and sports lifestyle categories experienced negative growth in 4Q25, which impacted overall performance. The company aims to drive improvement through product optimization and new marketing strategies [12][14].

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 15 日 [Table_Title] Q4 流水承压，关注新店型和新产品发展 [Table_Title2] 李宁(2331.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2331 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 20.28/14.52 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 19.55 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,584.81 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 李宁发布最新运营状况，25Q4 李宁（不包括李宁 YOUNG）流水同比实现低单位数下降，其中线下/电商分 别为中单位数下降/持平，零售/批发分别为低单位数下降/中单位数下降。 大股东持续增持，李宁/李麒麟先生持股比例由年初的 10.7%/10.6%提升至 14.8%/14.4%，回购价格在 14.96-1 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED 李 寧 有 限 公 司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） 股份代號：2331（港幣櫃台）及 82331（人民幣櫃台） 二零二五年第四季度最新運營狀況 二零二五年第四季度最新運營狀況 本公告乃李寧有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱為「本集團」）董事會（「董 事會」）自願發出，以提供以下之集團業務運營情況。 截至2025年12月31日，於中國，李寧銷售點數量（不包括李寧YOUNG）共計6,091個，較 上一季末淨減少41個，本年迄今淨減少26個。在淨減少的26個銷點售中，零售業務淨減 少59個，批發業務淨增加33個。 截至2025年12月31日，於中國，李寧YOUNG銷售點數量共計1,518個，較上一季末淨增加 38個，本年迄今淨增加50個。 本公司股東及潛在投資者須注意， 本公司股東及潛在投資者須注意，此公告是根據本集團未經審計的運營資料編制 此公告是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched a new store format and product line, marking a significant event in its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, with the opening of the first "Dragon Store" and the release of the new Honor Gold product series [1] Group 1: New Store and Product Launch - The "Dragon Store" is themed around "Award Moments," "Competition Moments," and "Life Moments," aimed at creating exclusive products and experiences for consumers [1] - The Honor Gold series significantly differs from the brand's previous product styles, integrating professional sports technology with minimalist design to cater to urban middle-class needs [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - Despite overall pressure on discretionary consumption in 2025, the company is expected to achieve slightly better-than-expected performance, driven by categories like badminton [2] - The company maintains a strong inventory structure, with 82% of mid-2025 inventory being new products with a sales ratio of only four months [2] - Continuous share buybacks by the major shareholder reflect confidence in the company's long-term development, increasing their stake from 10.53% to 14.27% by the end of 2025 [2] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.95, 1.07, and 1.22 yuan respectively, with a target price of 25.41 HKD based on a 24x valuation for 2025 [2]