Core Insights - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve due to the expanding budget deficit [1] Group 1 - The downgrade by Moody's reflects concerns over the increasing budget deficit in the U.S. [1] - Following the downgrade, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has become steeper, indicating rising yields on longer-term debt [1]

Group 1 - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating has led to significant turmoil in the US capital markets, with a "sell America" trade gaining traction, resulting in declines across stocks, bonds, and currencies [1][11] - The US Treasury market experienced a large-scale sell-off, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising approximately 10 basis points, surpassing the psychological 5% level, the highest since mid-2007 [1] - Analysts expect the yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries to rise by an additional 5-10 basis points due to the impact of Moody's downgrade [4] Group 2 - US stock futures showed cautious sentiment, with the Dow futures down nearly 0.9%, S&P 500 futures down over 1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down about 1.5% [7] - Gold, as a safe-haven asset, saw a rebound, with spot gold prices rising above $2,440 per ounce, benefiting from the deteriorating US fiscal situation [8] - The downgrade by Moody's is expected to intensify concerns over the sustainability of US debt, prompting investors to reassess the risk premium associated with US assets [11]

德商银行：美国信用评级下调增加美国国债曲线趋陡风险 金十数据5月19日讯，德国商业银行研究部说，穆迪评级将美国国债评级从Aaa下调至Aa1的决定增加了 美国国债曲线趋陡的风险。虽然穆迪正在追赶其他评级机构，但此次降级提醒人们，财政挑战正在加 剧。这"可能会在本周20年期国债拍卖前加剧美国国债的趋陡倾向"。不过，在其他评级机构此前下调美 国国债评级后，投资者都是在美国国债走软时买入的，这一次很可能也是类似的情况。 ...

金十数据5月19日讯，穆迪评级将美国评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，导致长期国债收益率上升，30年期国债收 益率突破了5%的关键水平。KBC分析师在一份报告中表示，评级下调立即引发了长期收益率的膝跳反 应。不过，他们说，考虑到美国政府的预算状况，下调评级决定并不令人意外。此举"在很大程度上是 象征性的，因为另外两家评级机构此前已经下调了评级。" 穆迪下调美国评级，30年期美国国债收益率升至5%以上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. government credit rating by Moody's has raised concerns about U.S. debt and its implications for the financial markets, leading to increased volatility in U.S. assets [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing persistent budget deficits and a lack of signs of narrowing deficits [1]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is approaching $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with projections indicating it could reach nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office warned that U.S. government debt could exceed post-World War II record levels, reaching 107% of GDP by 2029 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock and bond futures fell, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.49% amid low trading volumes [1]. - Analysts expect the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade, with the 30-year yield potentially exceeding 5% [2]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the dollar amid rising debt concerns [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Large investors, including sovereign funds and institutional investors, are beginning to replace U.S. Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which may lead to rising debt servicing costs [2]. - Despite the downgrade, Barclays analysts believe it will not significantly impact congressional voting outcomes or lead to forced selling of Treasuries [5]. - The demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of a sell-off, despite concerns over trade tensions and fiscal irresponsibility [5].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," marking a significant shift in the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe asset [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rating Downgrade Details - Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating was unexpected, occurring before the resolution of ongoing negotiations in Congress regarding major fiscal legislation [3]. - The downgrade reflects concerns over the increasing U.S. government debt and rising interest expenses, with projections indicating a potential increase in government debt by $5 trillion over the next decade due to proposed tax cuts [3][4]. - Following the downgrade announcement, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose to 4.49%, an increase of approximately 0.05% from before the announcement [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Despite the downgrade, major financial institutions, including Barclays, believe that there will not be a forced sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, as they continue to be viewed as "risk-free" assets [4]. - Japanese financial institutions have expressed that the impact of the downgrade is limited, with no plans to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - There is a noted trend of foreign investors, including China, reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with China's holdings dropping to $765.3 billion, a decrease of $18.9 billion from the previous month [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The downgrade comes at a time when U.S. interest rates are already under upward pressure, influenced by various economic factors including the potential for a stronger fiscal policy under the Trump administration [5]. - The sentiment among investors remains cautious, with ongoing concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt effectively, which could hinder the return of capital to the U.S. [6].

穆迪认为，美国政府当前财政支出计划无法让强制性支出和赤字在未来出现实质性减少。该机构预计，如果不调整税收和支出，美国预算灵活性仍将有 限，包括利息在内的强制性支出占总支出的比例将从2024年的73%左右升至2035年的78%左右。如果美国国会2017年通过的《减税与就业法案》得以延 长，未来10年内，扣除利息支出后的美国联邦财政赤字将增加约4万亿美元，美国联邦政府债务占国内生产总值（GDP）比重到2035年将升至134%。 摩根大通策略师Jay Barry在一份报告中表示，长期来看，穆迪下调美国评级可能会导致利息支出增加，此举将使美债相对于匹配期限的隔夜指数掉期 （OIS）价格走低。 该策略师表示，鉴于需求格局发生结构性转变，贸易和货币政策存在不确定性，短期内风险倾向于熊陡。这一事件导致的波动程度应该会比4月初关税公 告后出现的波动更小，因为投资者的仓位现在更加中性，而且不太可能像上个月那样出现夸大基本面的市场波动。 报告还称，在其他条件相同的情况下，穆迪此次下调评级，会使30年期掉期利差缩小约5个基点。然而，美债似乎已经显示出比其他类似评级的发达市场 主权债券更高的风险溢价，这表明价格降低的幅度可能比这些系 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to the increasing scale of government debt and interest payments, while adjusting the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [1] Group 1: Credit Rating Changes - Moody's is the latest credit rating agency to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, following Fitch's downgrade to AA+ in August 2023 and S&P's downgrade to AA+ in August 2011 [1] - The downgrades are closely associated with the U.S. debt ceiling approaching the "X date," raising concerns about fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Moody's expressed concerns about the current fiscal situation and future budget plans, predicting that by 2035, U.S. federal debt will reach 134% of GDP and the federal deficit could rise to 9% of GDP [1][2] - The agency noted that mandatory spending, including interest payments, will increase from 73% of total government spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035, limiting budget flexibility for other public investments [2] Group 3: Current Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing by June 2025 [2] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of FY2025 has already exceeded $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest level for that period in history [2] Group 4: Political Context - The current fiscal challenges are described as long-term issues rather than short-term problems created by the current administration, with efforts underway to reduce federal spending and promote economic growth [3] - There are concerns regarding the objectivity of credit rating analysts, with political affiliations being questioned, although such claims may serve to divert attention from underlying fiscal issues [3]

2025.05. 19 本文字数：1565，阅读时长大约3分钟 针对美国赤字财政的不可持续，不同于民主党政府倾向于通过向富人征税，平衡赤字，特朗普政府执 政以来的对外增加关税、对内减税、通过DOGE削减财政支出、去监管等降低经济社会运行成本，及 开创"特朗普金卡"筹资、对非公民海外汇款征税等，都在不同程度围绕着可持续美国财政预算和赤 字经济展开。 历届美国政府都重视美国财政赤字问题，缘于美国国债在美国乃至全球政经领域的极端重要性，即若 美国财政赤字的可持续性问题无法获得系统性解决，那么失去最高主权信用评级后，美国国债将很难 在金融实务中被看作完全安全资产，这会极速提升美国国债收益率曲线，抬高全球金融市场风险资产 的风险溢价，提高全球经贸体系的运行成本和融资成本等，导致市场需更多额外资本吸附美国国债收 益率陡峭带来的敞口风险。 这不利于全球经济增长，并加剧新兴经济体美元流动性成本，增加新兴经济体的风险压力。毕竟，若 美国主权信用评级完全无缘最高信用评级，即便美联储采取降息举措，美国国债收益率曲线也不一定 会随之回调，反而相比3A的公司债，市场需要为美国国债计提与其信用评级匹配的风险溢价。 当然，市场最大的担心是 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed skepticism towards Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, indicating a lack of confidence in the rating agency's assessment [1] Group 1 - Yellen's response highlights the government's stance on credit ratings and their implications for investor confidence [1] - The downgrade by Moody's may reflect broader concerns about fiscal policy and economic stability in the U.S. [1] - The reaction from the Treasury Secretary suggests potential tensions between government officials and credit rating agencies [1]