智通财经APP获悉，在穆迪上周下调美国主权信用评级后，美国国债收益率周一虽自盘中高点有所回 落，整体仍维持在高位，凸显市场对美国财政状况的持续担忧。多项关键期限的国债收益率再次触及或 逼近金融市场高度敏感的关键水平。 数据显示，30年期美债收益率一度升至5.03%，创下自2023年11月以来新高，随后回落至4.921%，仍较 前一交易日上升2个基点。10年期美债收益率同样上涨2个基点至4.459%，而2年期美债收益率则微跌1 个基点至3.972%。值得注意的是，债券收益率与价格走势相反，收益率走高意味着价格下跌。 虽然穆迪的降级消息最初引发市场不安，随着交易日展开，部分投资者选择逢低买入国债，推动收益率 从高点小幅回落。 上周五，穆迪将美国的长期主权信用评级从最高级别"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"，理由是美国政府预算赤字日 益扩大，以及在高利率背景下，滚动发行旧债的成本大幅上升。 穆迪在声明中指出："我们21级评级体系中这一级的下调，反映的是超过十年的政府债务增长，以及利 息支付比例已显著高于其他同评级国家。"自1949年以来，美国一直维持穆迪的"Aaa"国家评级。如今， 美国在三大评级机构中的评级终于趋于一致， ...

Market Reaction to Moody's Downgrade - The Nasdaq and other major US indices experienced a decline of over 1% following Moody's downgrade of US debt due to the rising budget deficit, but stocks rebounded quickly, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2][9] - The swift recovery from bad news suggests that if negative news cannot significantly impact stock prices, the market may perform even better in the absence of news [2][9] Historical Precedents and Current Trends - A comparison of the current Nasdaq performance with the late 1990s shows a close correlation, with the Nasdaq rising 74.18% over 617 days, while the 90s example rose 93.42% in the same timeframe, indicating a potential continuation of growth in the tech sector [3][5] - The performance of individual AI companies such as Broadcom, Microsoft, and CoreWeave suggests that the growth phase in the AI sector may just be beginning [5] S&P 500 Index Performance - The S&P 500 Index surged over 19% in just 27 days following improved trade relations between the US and China, which is significantly higher than the historical average return of approximately 10% [6] - Historical data indicates that since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has been higher one year later 100% of the time when it gains more than 19% in 27 trading days, suggesting a strong likelihood of continued upward movement [7]

哈西特将责任完全归咎于拜登政府，指责其"鲁莽开支"导致今日局面。他强调，特朗普政府正全力削减支出、放松监管，推动供给侧增长，坚信 美国经济将重回全球巅峰。"经济最强，国债自然最强！"哈西特的自信宣言背后，是特朗普团队对当前经济政策的全力辩护，却也掩盖不了市场 对债务问题的深层忧虑。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特火力全开，直指穆迪下调美国主权信用评级的决定"严重滞后"，并坚称美国国债仍是全球最安全的投资标 的。他毫不客气地嘲讽道："穆迪爱怎么评就怎么评，但美国国债的地位无可撼动！"这番言论无疑是对市场担忧的一记强硬回击，也凸显了特朗 普政府对经济前景的极度自信。 穆迪此次降级理由直指美国债务飙升和利息负担加重，将评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，使得美国在三大评级机构中彻底失去最高信用评级。更令人担忧 的是，穆迪警告称，当前财政计划难以实质性削减赤字，而国会共和党人推动的减税和支出法案可能进一步推高债务。这一消息瞬间引爆市场， 美债收益率飙升，美元走软，美股集体下挫，投资者情绪明显受挫。 美国财政部长贝森特同样将矛头指向前任政府，称"眼下的烂摊子并非过去100天造成"。他坦言，8月可能触及债务上限，呼吁国会尽快行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has raised concerns among investors regarding the reliability of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe-haven asset, leading to increased yields on U.S. government bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and interest payment ratios significantly higher than similar sovereign nations [3][5]. - This downgrade aligns with previous actions by other major rating agencies, including Standard & Poor's and Fitch, which also lowered the U.S. rating in recent years [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, the yields on 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time since October 2023 [1][3]. - U.S. stock futures indicated a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropping nearly 300 points, and the volatility index rising by 13% [1]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The House Budget Committee approved a tax and spending proposal from the Trump administration, which is expected to increase the deficit by trillions of dollars, exacerbating concerns over U.S. debt [6][7]. - Moody's expressed skepticism about the current fiscal proposals' ability to significantly reduce spending and deficits in the long term, predicting that mandatory spending will rise from approximately 73% of total spending in 2024 to about 78% by 2035 [7]. Group 4: Default Risk - The cost of U.S. government debt default insurance, measured by credit default swaps (CDS), has slightly increased, indicating a rise in perceived risk among investors [8].

Group 1 - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies and rising U.S. debt have led investors to question whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a safe haven asset for global investors [1][3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting rising government debt and interest payment ratios significantly higher than similar sovereign nations [3][4] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 12 basis points to 5.02%, while the 10-year yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.54% [1] Group 2 - The House Budget Committee approved Trump's tax and spending proposal, which is expected to increase the deficit by trillions, raising investor concerns about U.S. debt trends [4] - Moody's indicated that the current fiscal proposals are unlikely to lead to significant long-term reductions in spending and deficits [4] - The proportion of mandatory spending, including interest payments, is projected to rise from approximately 73% in 2024 to about 78% by 2035 [4] Group 3 - Despite heightened risk aversion, some analysts believe Moody's downgrade will not have a lasting impact on the market, as it was largely anticipated [5] - The cost of U.S. government debt default insurance, measured by five-year CDS rates, slightly increased to 55 basis points [5]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" reflects concerns over the growing debt burden and interest payment ratio, leading to a decline in investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [1][3][4] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating follows similar actions by Fitch and Standard & Poor's, resulting in the loss of the AAA rating from all three major credit agencies [1][3] - The downgrade has led to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield rising to 4.521% [1][3] Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - Analysts emphasize that the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy will impact Treasury pricing and investment value, with a focus on the increasing budget deficit and debt levels [2][4] - Moody's projects that by 2035, U.S. federal debt could reach 134% of GDP, with the deficit potentially rising to 9% of GDP, indicating a concerning fiscal trajectory [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - The market has shown a negative feedback loop characterized by falling prices, selling pressure, and increased risk aversion among domestic and international investors [1][4] - Some investors, particularly from overseas, are diversifying their portfolios away from U.S. Treasuries, as evidenced by China's reduction of its Treasury holdings by $18.9 billion [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. Treasury market is at a critical juncture, with potential for increased volatility due to rising inflation risks and uncertain fiscal policies [8][9] - Investment strategies are shifting towards safer assets, with expectations that U.S. Treasuries may outperform riskier assets in the near term [8][9]

美联储博斯蒂克：穆迪下调评级将影响整个经济和金融市场。 ...

智通财经5月19日电，美联储博斯蒂克表示，穆迪下调评级将影响整个经济和金融市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt and interest payments, marking the first time all three major rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. from its highest rating since 1994 [1][5][9] Group 1: Rating Downgrade Details - The U.S. federal government debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 134% by 2035 [4][5] - The fiscal deficit for FY2024 is projected to be $2.1 trillion, exceeding 6.4% of GDP, and is expected to rise to 9% by 2035 under high-interest conditions [5][10] - Moody's cited the inability of current fiscal plans to significantly reduce mandatory spending and deficits as a reason for the downgrade [4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade announcement, U.S. stock futures, Treasury futures, and the dollar index all weakened, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.023%, the highest since November 2023 [2][15] - Historical context shows that previous downgrades have led to significant market volatility, with the Dow Jones experiencing a maximum single-day drop of 5.55% in 2011 [16][17] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Analysts express concerns that the downgrade reflects a long-standing issue of unsustainable debt levels and political dysfunction, which could lead to increased borrowing costs and reduced demand for U.S. debt [7][18] - Richard Francis from Fitch highlighted the uncertainty surrounding large-scale spending cuts and the persistent high deficit, which is projected to remain around 120% of GDP [7][14] - Experts warn that the downgrade could undermine the perception of U.S. Treasuries as a risk-free asset, potentially leading to a shift in investment strategies [17][18]

Core Insights - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve due to the expanding budget deficit [1] Group 1 - The downgrade by Moody's reflects concerns over the increasing budget deficit in the U.S. [1] - Following the downgrade, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has become steeper, indicating rising yields on longer-term debt [1]