Investment Rating - The report suggests a weakening demand for US equities, with a notable shift towards European stocks, but maintains that the narrative of foreign investors abandoning US stocks is overstated [10][19][67]. Core Insights - Demand for US equities is declining, benefiting European stocks, with nearly US$37 billion flowing into European equity funds year-to-date, significantly higher than previous years [8][48]. - Despite the decline in US equity demand, foreign investors have continued to net buy US stocks, indicating that the market is not experiencing a complete withdrawal of foreign capital [10][20]. - The report highlights that US investors have been reallocating from domestic equities, with net sales of approximately US$24 billion since Liberation Day, while foreign investors have added to US stocks during the same period [20][28]. Summary by Sections Equity Flows - Net flows to international funds have increased dramatically since the end of 2024, indicating a shift in investor preferences [3][60]. - Flows to US equities have slowed down since the start of the year, with approximately 40% of weeks experiencing net outflows [11][12]. Regional Focus - European equities have become the primary destination for equity fund flows, with record inflows observed [48][50]. - The report notes that while flows to US stocks have decreased, the overall allocation to US equities has followed benchmark weight changes, suggesting a more passive adjustment rather than an active reallocation [53][57]. Investor Behavior - The report emphasizes that the decline in US equity flows is not solely due to foreign selling but is largely driven by US investors reallocating their investments [20][28]. - High-quality data indicates a slowdown in foreign demand for US stocks, but net foreign buying remains positive, countering narratives of a significant withdrawal [31][35]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the trends of reduced demand for US equities and increased interest in European stocks are likely to persist, influenced by ongoing policy uncertainties and currency market dynamics [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of stablecoins and the internationalization of the RMB, emphasizing the long-term strategies being implemented by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to enhance the RMB's global presence [17][21] - It highlights the increasing dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins in the market, which has led to a rise in demand for US treasuries [23][24] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The PBoC is focusing on enhancing financial infrastructure and services in Shanghai to facilitate RMB internationalization [18] - New financial measures include promoting offshore RMB-denominated bond issuance and optimizing cross-border trade and investment [19] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is experiencing significant growth, with over USD 120 billion backed by US T-bills, indicating a strong reliance on USD [24] - The total transaction volume of stablecoins has been rising, with a notable increase compared to traditional payment systems like Visa and MasterCard [22] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers [20] - The report outlines the licensing requirements and operational standards for stablecoin issuers in both Hong Kong and the US [20] RMB's Global Position - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 2.84% in Q1 2022 to 2.18% in Q4 2024, indicating challenges in its international acceptance [31] - The establishment of a Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai aims to expand the RMB's global reach [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - China's interest in stablecoins is driven by concerns over US legislation that could reinforce dollar dominance, with the PBoC exploring Hong Kong as a testing ground for future payment alternatives [1][2] - The development of RMB stablecoins is seen as a potential building block for cross-border RMB settlement, but significant reforms are needed for true internationalization [10][12] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The US GENIUS Act's passage marks a pivotal moment for stablecoins, potentially transforming USD-pegged stablecoins into synthetic dollars, which could enhance demand for US Treasuries [2] - Stablecoins are viewed as distribution channels for existing currencies rather than new currencies, extending the US dollar's reach into crypto and emerging markets [3] PBoC's Strategy - The PBoC has shifted from banning cryptocurrencies to advocating for a multi-polar global currency system, emphasizing the need for efficient digital payment alternatives [4] - Digital RMB and stablecoins are proposed as viable options for cross-border transactions, addressing weaknesses in traditional payment systems [4] RMB Stablecoins: Opportunities and Challenges - Current cross-border digital RMB transactions are limited in scale, primarily utilizing Project mBridge, with only five central banks involved [5] - The potential for RMB stablecoins is hindered by domestic usage bans, capital controls, and the dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins [5] Hong Kong's Role - Hong Kong is the first jurisdiction to pass stablecoin legislation, effective August 1, 2025, which mandates 100% high-quality reserves for stablecoins [9] - The legislation aims to promote USD and HKD pegged stablecoins initially, with plans to introduce CNH pegged stablecoins later, leveraging Hong Kong's liquidity pool [9] Long-term Outlook for RMB Internationalization - Despite efforts to enhance cross-border settlement infrastructure, the RMB's share in global reserve currencies has declined from 2.8% in early 2022 to 2.2% by the end of 2024 [11][13] - Restoring global confidence in China's growth potential is crucial for increasing RMB usage, necessitating structural reforms in the economy [12]

Group 1 - Multiple foreign institutions have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards Chinese assets [1][3] - Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market, citing a stronger RMB against the USD and improved corporate earnings outlook [1] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its target for Chinese stock indices upward, predicting a 5% increase for the MSCI China Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and a 3% increase for the CSI 300 Index by June 2026 [1] Group 2 - UBS's China equity strategy head noted increased interest in Chinese stocks among investors during recent roadshows in Europe and Asia, with a shift from underweight to neutral or even overweight positions [1][2] - Despite global uncertainties, investors recognize the relative attractiveness of Chinese stocks, although there remains a cautious stance towards emerging markets overall [2] - China's economic resilience is highlighted by strong domestic demand and significant growth in high-tech manufacturing, with retail sales growth reaching 6.4% year-on-year in May [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has revised its GDP growth forecasts for China, increasing them to 4.5% and 4.2% for the next two years, while Deutsche Bank has raised its 2025 GDP growth prediction by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7% [3] - Goldman Sachs has also upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for Q2 and the second half of the year, along with a 0.6 percentage point increase for 2025 [3]

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered Core Insights - The recent US-China trade agreement is viewed as a tactical pause rather than a comprehensive resolution, indicating ongoing tensions between the two nations [2][4] - The agreement addresses critical dependencies in technology and resources, with China relying on semiconductor imports and the US dependent on rare earth minerals [4] - Economic forecasts suggest US GDP growth of 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, while China's real GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2025 [2][5] Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - The trade agreement is limited and does not resolve fundamental disagreements, with US tariffs on China imports remaining significantly higher than at the start of the year [4] - Both countries are attempting to reduce dependencies, but progress is slow, with China investing in its semiconductor industry and the US seeking alternative rare earth supplies [4] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that tariffs will lead to a rise in goods prices, affecting inflation rates, with headline PCE expected to rise to 2.9% and core PCE to 3.3% in 2025 [2] - The US faces a weaker growth outlook due to higher tariffs, which may pressure the dollar and Treasury yields lower, while creating uncertainty about future inflation [6] Market Positioning - Investors are advised to position for slower growth and uncertainty in US-China relations, with potential opportunities in currency and Treasury markets [6] - The report suggests that the current economic environment may lead to a steeper yield curve as longer-maturity yields reflect inflation uncertainty [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed Core Insights - Uncertainty surrounding US tax and trade policy, along with significant US dollar weakness, suggests a potential global shift away from US dollar-denominated assets [1] - The cross-currency (XCCY) basis market can be utilized to gauge demand for US dollars and related assets, indicating a trend where investors show less interest in USD-denominated assets while favoring EUR and JPY assets [7][15] - The report anticipates that the tightening trend in the XCCY basis will persist until Federal Reserve rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets on a foreign exchange-hedged basis [16][97] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - In times of global market stress, investors typically seek safe haven currencies, with the USD historically reinforcing comfort in USD-denominated assets [8] - Post "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, the USD showed unusual depreciation against other currencies, raising questions about its safe haven status [11][68] XCCY Basis Market Dynamics - The XCCY basis reflects offshore demand for long-term USD funding and onshore demand for non-USD-denominated assets [7][14] - Recent movements in the XCCY basis indicate a reduced appetite for USD-denominated assets and an increased interest in EUR and JPY assets [15][16] - The report outlines key drivers of the XCCY basis, including supply and demand factors for both currencies, with negative spreads indicating a premium for borrowing USD [22][24] Key Drivers of XCCY Basis - Short-term drivers include USD liquidity, regulatory constraints, and demand for foreign assets, while medium- to long-term drivers focus on overseas asset demand and issuance-related factors [25][35][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the XCCY basis as it provides high-frequency signals regarding foreign demand for USD and USD-denominated assets [65][77] Recent Market Observations - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, negative CCY/SOFR basis swap spreads widened but quickly normalized, indicating limited investor flight to quality [78][82] - The report suggests that diminished demand for USD among offshore investors may be occurring, with US investors showing increased interest in overseas assets [85][96]

Core Insights - The Chinese robotics market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 23% over the next four years, with the market size projected to increase from $47 billion in 2024 to $108 billion by 2028 [1] Market Position - In 2024, China is anticipated to hold approximately 40% of the global robotics market share, indicating its dominant position in the global robotics sector [1]

Group 1: Financial Cooperation and Global Economic Stability - Strengthening global monetary policy coordination is crucial for promoting global economic recovery and maintaining financial system stability, especially in light of rising uncertainties in the international economy [2] - Central banks need to enhance communication with markets and adapt their monetary policy frameworks to address structural changes, including geopolitical shifts and environmental factors [2][3] Group 2: Capital Market Development - The capital market is essential for optimizing capital allocation, fostering innovation, and enhancing financing channels, necessitating a multi-tiered market system in China [3] - Shanghai is positioned as a leading international financial center, benefiting from a comprehensive financial market system and regional industrial advantages, which can facilitate further financial market internationalization [3][4] Group 3: Shanghai and Hong Kong Collaboration - The collaboration between Shanghai and Hong Kong is increasingly important due to fundamental changes in capital flows and the need for diversified investment opportunities [4] - Both cities can provide a favorable regulatory environment for international investors, particularly in the context of RMB internationalization, which is vital for attracting foreign capital [4][6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Currently, approximately 10% of Chinese company stocks are held by international investors, indicating a significant interest in entering the Chinese market, which requires more financial futures products for risk management [6] - Hong Kong serves as a platform for global investors, while Shanghai is ideal for connecting with domestic investors, enhancing capital formation through their collaboration [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering relaxing leverage requirements for large banks, initiating a broader review of banking regulations, particularly the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Federal Reserve's policy committee will hold a meeting on June 25 to discuss potential modifications to the SLR, which mandates banks to hold a capital ratio against all assets regardless of risk [1] - The meeting will be the first under the newly confirmed regulatory head, Michelle Bowman, who is expected to advocate for a more lenient regulatory approach [1][2] Group 2: Industry Implications - The SLR, originally intended as a baseline requirement, has become a rigid constraint limiting the lending capabilities of major financial institutions, particularly during periods of market liquidity stress [2] - If the SLR is adjusted to exempt U.S. Treasury securities or lower the capital requirements, it could release hundreds of billions in capital, allowing major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley to expand their balance sheets and enhance shareholder returns [3] - A more relaxed SLR could significantly boost the return on equity (ROE) for Wall Street firms and provide room for stock buybacks and dividends, particularly benefiting investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [3]