Core Viewpoint - Foreign investment in domestic stocks has increased further compared to the previous month, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese market among international investors [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Statistics - In May 2025, banks settled 13,861 billion RMB and sold 13,051 billion RMB, with cumulative settlements from January to May reaching 67,235 billion RMB and cumulative sales at 70,867 billion RMB [2]. - In May 2025, banks recorded foreign-related income of 44,800 billion RMB and foreign payments of 42,426 billion RMB, with cumulative foreign-related income from January to May at 230,862 billion RMB and payments at 223,540 billion RMB [2]. - The overall balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market remained stable, with a net inflow of 33 billion USD from non-bank sectors in May [2]. Group 2: International Investor Sentiment - Morgan Stanley reported that global investors' exposure to China remains relatively low, with only about 26.6% of funds allocated to Chinese stocks compared to a 29% weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [3]. - The significant 2.4 percentage point gap indicates substantial room for increased investment in Chinese equities [4]. - Many global investors expressed interest in gradually increasing their exposure to China, driven by recent advancements in technology and a reassessment of the investment landscape [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Nomura Oriental International Securities predicts that Chinese equity assets will outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year, supported by policy backing for growth sectors [4]. - The static valuation of the CSI 300 index is considered undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [4]. - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist expressed a positive stance on Chinese stocks, anticipating improvements in corporate earnings and increased foreign inflows into the Chinese stock market [4].

分析人士称，该法案有望为加密资产提供更清晰的合规路径，推动全球大型机构加速布局。 除美国外，欧盟已率先通过《加密资产市场法规》（MiCA），为稳定币设立统一标准；英国金融行为 监管局（FCA）也正在征求公众意见，关注稳定币与指定资产的价值挂钩机制。 与此立法进展同步，传统金融机构加速布局数字资产领域。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）日前宣布，将 通过其区块链平台Kinexys在Coinbase开发的Base公链上推出"存款代币"JPMD，专为机构客户提供7×24 小时结算和利息支付服务。Kinexys全球联合负责人纳文·马莱拉（Naveen Mallela）表示，JPMD有助于 提升链上资金流效率，与传统存款产品具备良好替代性。 摩根大通强调，相较面向公众的稳定币，存款代币在合规性、可控性方面更易与现有金融体系对接，具 备作为大型机构数字化结算工具的潜力。 根据美国国会公开资料，《天才法案》拟为稳定币发行方建立系统性的监管框架，涵盖储备资产类别、 信息披露与审计机制等关键条款。法案明确，稳定币发行人允许持有的储备资产包括法定货币、受保存 款、短期国债、回购协议、政府货币市场基金以及央行准备金，旨在保障 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Citigroup predicts gold prices will fall below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a target range of $2500-$2700 by mid-2026 due to weakening investment demand and improved global economic outlook [1] - Citigroup expects Brent crude oil prices to trade around $70-$80 per barrel in the near term, while maintaining a long-term forecast of $60-$65 per barrel [2] - Bank of America warns of declining foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, with custodial assets dropping over $60 billion since April [3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Impact - Morgan Stanley suggests that the "Beautiful America" bill may increase the deficit without significantly boosting economic growth, predicting a fiscal drag on GDP in the medium term [2] - Dutch Bank analysts indicate limited upside potential for the U.S. dollar, as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may not provide sufficient support [4] - German Bank analysts note that the recent strength of the dollar is primarily driven by rising oil prices rather than its safe-haven status [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts continued rapid economic growth in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector performance, with a focus on consumer demand and investment trends [8] - CITIC Securities identifies a long-term growth trend in the controllable nuclear fusion industry, supported by favorable policies and increased financing [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates that recent policy changes in drug and medical supply procurement will benefit high-quality innovative companies in the pharmaceutical sector [8] Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - Zheshang Securities predicts a dual bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, driven by improved economic conditions and supportive policies [9] - Huatai Securities highlights the potential for a surge in oil transportation rates due to increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping supply chains [10] - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on high-elasticity industries such as storage and AI, anticipating optimistic growth in the semiconductor sector [10]

June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America Weakness still lies ahead This week's inflation data showed no clear signs of a tariff push, but we expect higher goods inflation in coming months. Slower core services may give the Fed confidence that the inflation pickup will be transitory. With higher inflation ahead, weaker consumption growth is still in front of us. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT | | | | US Economics Weekly North America | Morgan Sta ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a neutral stance on basis exposure due to weak near-term demand outlook and macro uncertainties [36]. Core Insights - The demand for conventional MBS is muted, with overseas investors likely holding a similar amount of conventionals and Ginnies, contrary to common assumptions [3][25]. - CMO issuance has significantly increased, representing approximately 34% of MBS issuance year-to-date compared to just 9% in 2020-2021, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9][18]. - The GSEs may expand their investment portfolios, which could bridge the gap until bank demand returns, potentially tightening mortgage basis [30][36]. Market Recap - Rates have rallied sharply due to weak inflation and jobless claims, with CPI and PPI coming in below expectations [10]. - Mortgage spreads have not tightened consistently due to opportunistic buying from marginal buyers, particularly overseas investors [21]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that overseas investors have been quieter this year, impacting the demand side of the equation [21]. - Servicing transfer volumes have decreased, but in-the-money loans tend to have faster speeds post-transfer [9]. - The GSEs' retained portfolios have a significant gap compared to regulatory caps, which could lead to increased investment in mortgages if the GSEs focus on generating earnings [30][31]. Investor Composition - The estimated composition of conventional MBS holders includes 26% Fed, 33% US Banks, 10% Overseas, 27% Money Managers, 1% GSEs, and 3% REITs [27]. - For Ginnie MBS, the composition is 17% Fed, 37% US Banks, 31% Overseas, and 15% Money Managers [29]. CMO Issuance Trends - CMO issuance has averaged $32 billion per month this year, driven by demand for floaters as investors seek to minimize duration risk [18]. - The report notes that CMO issuance levels have decoupled from overall MBS issuance, which remains muted [21]. Regulatory Considerations - Potential changes to LLPAs could tighten the credit box for existing low-credit borrowers, benefiting the prepayment profile of credit-impaired stores [44].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's stake in Meitu (01357.HK) has decreased from 5.48% to 4.30% [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish outlook on the USD and recommends selling USD while buying curve steepeners [9][13][53]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the consensus view aligns with a weaker USD and a steeper yield curve, but the expected magnitude of these moves is significantly larger than what the consensus anticipates [9][13]. - It is projected that the USD will weaken by approximately 9% on a DXY basis and that the US Treasury curve will steepen by around 100 basis points over the next 12-18 months [13][20]. - Investor positioning is currently cautious, but supportive fundamentals and strengthening sentiment suggest a favorable environment for the recommended trades [9][13]. Summary by Sections G10 FX Strategy - The report highlights that while a weaker USD is a consensus view, the extent of the weakening is underpriced, with only a 15-25% chance assigned by the market to reach the forecasted levels against major safe-haven currencies [3][31]. UK Rates Strategy - The report notes the closure of a long position in SFIZ6 due to a recent rally in front-end rates, but identifies an attractive entry point for upside option structures given low implied volatility [4][26]. Japan Rates Strategy - The focus is shifting from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to the Ministry of Finance (MoF) regarding long-end issuance and quantitative tightening (QT) pace, which may influence market dynamics [5][30]. US Rates Strategy - The report discusses entering 2s10s CPI swap steepeners, as the TIPS breakevens curve has steepened, indicating potential for further widening based on financial conditions and inflation expectations [6][36]. General Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that recent USD declines are primarily driven by reduced investor appetite for USD exposure due to policy uncertainty rather than concerns about US growth [17][20]. - It also notes that the USD discount reflects a negative policy premium associated with uncertainty around US trade and fiscal policy [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - Oil prices have rallied sharply, and the forward curve has shifted, indicating potential for higher prices depending on disruptions in oil flows [46] - Developed Markets (DM) may not experience significant impacts on core inflation from rising oil prices, while Emerging Markets (EM), particularly Asia, are more exposed [46][12] - Asia's oil burden is currently lower than historical averages, and inflation and current account balances are benign, suggesting that oil prices need to rise sustainably above $85/bbl for central banks to delay rate cuts [18][46] - The report draws parallels between current economic conditions and the early 1990s, suggesting defensives may continue to perform well in European equities [46][25] Oil Market Analysis - The disappearance of contango beyond month 6 indicates a significant shift in oil market dynamics [5] - A $10 increase in oil prices is estimated to lead to a 0.4 percentage point increase in Asia's headline inflation and a -0.4 percentage point impact on GDP [14][16] - The report emphasizes that oil prices will need to rise above $85/bbl in a sustained manner to influence central bank policies in Asia [18][20] Credit Market Insights - High Yield (HY) Energy has seen a strong rebound since early May, with HY Energy trading wider compared to the broader HY market [39][42] - The report recommends a defensive investment strategy, focusing on higher quality assets within the HY Energy sector [44][46]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant movements in various asset classes, with Brent crude oil prices experiencing a notable spike of +11.7% and a +2 standard deviation move, marking the largest increase since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [9][94]. - The DXY index fell to its lowest level in over three years, indicating a weakening of the US dollar against other currencies [9][12]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed the largest monthly increase in the last 30 years, suggesting a potential shift in consumer confidence [9][12]. Summary by Sections Equities - Major equity markets generally posted losses, with the exception of emerging market equities [94]. - Sector performance was mixed, with energy (+5.1%) and healthcare (+1.4%) sectors outperforming, while financials (-1.8%) and industrials (-0.9%) lagged [94]. Fixed Income - Credit spreads widened across US and EU investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) indices, indicating increased risk perception [94]. - The US Treasury 10-year yield decreased by 11 basis points, reflecting a rally in developed market rates [94]. Currencies - Most G10 currencies appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [94]. Commodities - Most major commodity markets posted gains, with Brent crude oil leading the performance [94]. - Gold prices reached new highs, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets [13]. Market Sentiment - The report indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with the Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflecting changes in positioning and volatility [50][55]. Cross-Asset Positioning - The report provides a detailed summary of net positioning across various asset classes, indicating a diverse range of strategies among asset managers, hedge funds, and dealers [60]. Correlations - The report discusses cross-asset correlations, noting a current correlation index of 43%, which is above the 10-year median of 39% [69]. Volatility - The cross-asset volatility monitor indicates varying levels of implied volatility across major equity markets, with the S&P 500 showing an implied volatility of 17.4% [92]. Fund Flows - The report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, providing insights into cross-asset sentiment and positioning [20]. Key Data - The report includes forecasts for various asset classes, with expected returns and risk metrics for Q2 2026 [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shock to the global trading order due to the broad imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to weigh on growth but not lead to a global recession [2]. - US real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. - The report suggests that while global growth is slowing, risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to lower growth expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience a step-down in growth, with inflation projected to peak in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in global demand due to tariffs, impacting exports and investment in the euro area and China [8]. - Japan's nominal GDP reflation remains intact, but the global slowdown is expected to affect its exports and investment [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with less leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - Key sectors recommended for Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, while in emerging markets, the focus is on financials and domestic businesses [6]. - The report advises against cyclical exporters in Japan due to anticipated JPY appreciation [6]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for major indices, with the S&P 500 expected to reach a price target of 6,500 by June 2026, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is projected to have a modest growth of 2.2% year-over-year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index is expected to grow by 10% [7]. Monetary Policy Expectations - The report expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026, with Treasury yields projected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 [14][19]. - The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also expected to implement rate cuts, with the ECB delivering 75 basis points and the BoE 100 basis points by year-end [14][19]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are subject to geopolitical uncertainties, with potential scenarios ranging from minimal disruption to significant price increases depending on developments in the Middle East [16]. - European gas prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand for LNG imports to meet storage targets [17]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven interest amid growth concerns [17].