格隆汇12月4日｜摩根士丹利投资银行联席主管Mo Assomull在纽约举行的活动上表示，预计2026年将掀 起一轮强劲的并购与IPO浪潮。整体交易活动在多数主要行业均保持健康水平，尤以科技、医疗保健、 工业和金融行业最为活跃，这得益于更具建设性的宏观经济环境。特朗普政府支持增长的政策立场有望 进一步加速金融服务业的整合进程。他预计，监管环境更加友好以及银行扩大规模的需求，应会在未来 几年推动更多行业并购。谈及人工智能领域，他表示，投资者和贷款机构在支持AI企业方面已变得更 加审慎。融资正从追逐"宏大愿景"的公司转向那些能够真正展示商业吸引力的企业。 ...

Morgan Stanley is seeing a strong deal pipeline next year for mergers, acquisitions and IPOs, its co-head of investment banking, Mo Assomull, said on Wednesday. ...

Morgan Stanley, one of the key players in financing the AI race, is considering offloading some of its data-center exposure via a so-called significant risk transfer. https://t.co/R6YJtdIzaz ...

Core Insights - The Morgan Stanley 2025 Global Consumer and Retail Conference is currently taking place, focusing on key industry players and trends [2] Company Overview - Vital Farms is being highlighted at the conference, with presentations from its President and CEO, Russell Diez-Canseco, and CFO, Thilo Wrede [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's shares have increased by 34.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry, Zacks Finance sector, and S&P 500 index, although it has underperformed compared to Goldman Sachs [1] Group 1: M&A Activity and Market Position - The bullish sentiment towards Morgan Stanley is largely driven by a rebound in global mergers and acquisitions (M&As), with significant activity noted in Q3 2025 following earlier lows due to geopolitical tensions [3][4] - Morgan Stanley's wealth and asset management operations have become a key focus, reducing reliance on capital markets for income generation, with notable acquisitions including Eaton Vance, E*Trade Financial, and Shareworks [5][6] - The wealth and asset management segments contributed over 55% to total net revenues in 2024, up from 26% in 2010, indicating a strong shift towards diversified revenue streams [6] Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth Metrics - The Wealth Management segment's total client assets experienced a CAGR of 18.1% from 2019 to 2024, while the Investment Management segment saw a CAGR of 24.7%, with continued growth expected [7] - Morgan Stanley achieved record equity net revenues in Asia, with revenues increasing by 29% year-over-year to $7.27 billion in the first nine months of 2025, driven by strong client activity [10] Group 3: Strategic Collaborations and Innovations - The partnership with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is expected to enhance profitability through combined operations in Japan, solidifying Morgan Stanley's market position [9] - A collaboration with Zerohash will allow E*TRADE clients to trade cryptocurrencies starting in H1 2026, potentially boosting revenues through trading spreads and advisory fees [11] Group 4: Financial Health and Capital Distribution - As of September 30, 2025, Morgan Stanley reported long-term debt of $324.1 billion and average liquidity resources of $368.1 billion, indicating a robust balance sheet [12] - Following a successful stress test, the company announced an 8% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.00 per share and a share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, reflecting strong capital distribution plans [13][16] Group 5: Earnings Prospects and Valuation - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upward for 2025 and 2026, with expected year-over-year growth of 22.8% and 5.8%, respectively [18][20] - Morgan Stanley's current forward P/E ratio is 16.45X, higher than the industry average of 14.43X, indicating a stretched valuation compared to peers [21][24] Group 6: Investment Outlook - The company's strategic focus on reducing dependence on capital markets and enhancing revenue diversification is expected to support financial performance, alongside bullish analyst sentiments [25] - Despite rising expenses and a high reliance on trading revenues posing challenges, the favorable deal-making environment is anticipated to drive financial growth [28] - Morgan Stanley is currently rated as a strong buy, suggesting it may be an opportune time for investment [29]

三是，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升。同时，国内资金开 始从定期存款向多元理财配置转变，保险和银行资管等机构开始"真金白银"入市。 在邢自强看来，全球流动性环境趋于宽松将支持风险资产表现，预计2026年上半年美联储将会有三次降 息，分别在1月、4月和6月进行，这为全球风险资产创造了有利环境。 12月2日，摩根士丹利举办线下媒体圆桌分享会，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强和摩根士丹利中 国首席股票策略师王滢讨论了2026年中国经济和股市策略。 中国股市进入"估值结构性修复"过程 王滢认为，中国股市已经进入了"估值结构性修复"的过程。"今年A股、港股，包括全球机构投资人追 踪最为紧密的明晟中国指数，在估值上取得了非常大程度的修复。尤其港股恒生指数和明晟中国指数， 市盈率修复超30%。"她说。 摩根士丹利表示，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升，中国股 市重新被定义为"有成长性的市场"。该机构小幅上调了中国股票指数目标，将2026年12月沪深300指数 的目标点位定为4840点，并表示"明晟中国指数12个月前瞻市盈率在12至13倍之间是合理的" ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates a renewed interest in Chinese assets as the market shifts away from the dominance of dollar assets, redefining the Chinese stock market as a growth-oriented market [1][4]. Economic Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a "moderate expansion" tone, with a slight increase in the broad fiscal deficit focusing on technology independence and infrastructure [2][5]. - Monetary policy will align with fiscal efforts, adopting a "moderately loose" strategy, likely relying more on targeted tools such as relending and PSL to support the economy [2][5]. Market Valuation and Investment Strategy - The Chinese stock market is undergoing a "structural valuation repair" process, with significant recovery in valuations, particularly in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the MSCI China Index, which have seen over a 30% recovery in price-to-earnings ratios [3][6]. - Global investors are changing their perception of the Chinese stock market from one lacking clear growth potential to one with growth opportunities, especially in sectors like artificial intelligence, new consumption, automation, and robotics [3][6]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a transition from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" growth, with limited upside for stock indices and moderate profit growth expected [3][6]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-quality internet and technology leaders while also including some high-dividend assets, employing a "barbell strategy" to balance risk and return [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investment continues to show optimism towards Chinese assets, particularly in the A-share market, with expectations of profit growth accelerating in the coming years [1][2][4]. Group 1: A-share Market Outlook - UBS analyst Meng Lei forecasts that the overall profit growth of A-shares is expected to rise from 6% this year to 8% by 2026, driven by improved nominal GDP growth and narrowing PPI declines [2][3]. - Several foreign institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs, have expressed positive views on the A-share market's performance in the upcoming year [1][6]. - The UBS global strategy team anticipates that global tech stocks will continue to rise in 2026, with recent data indicating a decrease in trading concentration in large tech stocks, alleviating concerns about overcrowding in the sector [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Themes and Strategies - Key investment themes for 2026 include technological self-reliance, consumer spending driven by corporate profit acceleration, and opportunities arising from Chinese companies expanding globally [3]. - In terms of style allocation, growth stocks are expected to outperform value stocks, while cyclical stocks may outperform defensive stocks due to ongoing policy support and profit recovery in industrial enterprises [3][6]. - The balance between large-cap and small-cap stocks is projected to remain stable, with small-cap stocks facing challenges in gaining excess liquidity, while large-cap industry leaders benefit from the growth of ETFs [3][4]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, with a focus on the technology sector [4][6]. - Recent data shows substantial inflows from both domestic and foreign investors into the Chinese stock market, with foreign inflows amounting to $2.257 billion in the past week alone [4][6]. - Analysts predict that as China's economic innovation momentum strengthens, the trend of foreign investment in Chinese tech stocks is likely to continue [6][7].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, highlights two major factors attracting foreign investment to China: timely policy adjustments boosting market confidence and advancements in industrial competitiveness and technological innovation [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The Chinese government is expanding fiscal deficits, increasing consumer support, and providing subsidies to stimulate domestic demand [1] - Concerns over U.S. immigration policies, tariff policies, and the independence of the Federal Reserve are leading investors to diversify their asset allocations globally, increasing demand for Chinese assets [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment highlights in China include advancements in artificial intelligence represented by DeepSeek, emerging humanoid robots, globally marketed smart driving cars, next-generation batteries, and biopharmaceuticals [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2026, foreign investment in Chinese stock assets will show a trend of steady accumulation [1]

When Scott Galloway was in college, Morgan Stanley recruited him to be an analyst. “I hated investment banking, but the job exposed me to professionalism, intensity and paying attention to details.” https://t.co/a14CnfyF5o ...