2026年初，科技分析师惊恐地盯着交易终端，一场软件股的血腥抛售正席卷整个华尔街，对冲基金精准狙击AI冲击下的脆弱环节，收获了一场做空盛宴。 短短一个多月，美股软件行业总市值蒸发 1万亿美元，而在这场崩塌中，对冲基金通过做空软件股已斩获 240亿美元 的利润 金融分析公司S3 Partners的数据显示，对冲基金正加大对软件股的做空力度，成为今年以来该领域惨烈抛售的主要推手之一 这些对冲基金并未选择普遍做空科技板块，而是精确瞄准了那些为客户提供基础自动化服务的公司——这类服务被认为极易被新兴的人工智能工具所取代 这一数据背后是整个行业面临的生存危机。DA Davidson分析师吉尔·卢里亚直言不讳地指出："对冲基金目前对软件板块全是净做空。" 这股做空浪潮与AI技术进步密不可分，市场正日益担忧AI技术将彻底颠覆传统软件商业模式 而投资者们似乎集体认为，软件行业正经历一场深刻的 "结构性变革" ，这可能导致更多的并购活动，包括大型公司对小型企业的收购 对冲基金的做空策略具有极强的针对性。据两家主要对冲基金的消息人士透露，目前做空火力集中于那些业务模式容易被新兴AI工具取代的公司，尤其是 提供基础自动化服务的企业 ...

在人工智能浪潮的推动下，美国四大科技巨头正开启一场本世纪以来规模空前的资本竞赛。最新预测显示，Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms和微软在二零 二六年的合计资本支出有望达到约六千五百亿美元，较前一年大幅增长约百分之六十。这笔令人瞠目的资金，将如洪流般涌入新建数据中心、AI芯片、网 络设备及备用发电机等一长串硬件设施之中。 紧随其后，Alphabet抛出了高达一千八百五十亿美元的年度资本支出预测，让投资者感到不安。亚马逊的预估则更为惊人，其二零二六年资本支出计划可能 触及两千亿美元大关，消息公布后其市值应声下挫。这一系列数字不仅反映了企业对未来的巨额押注，也凸显出行业ai基础设施竞赛的白热化。 这场由少数 科技巨头主导的投资狂潮，正对更广泛的经济层面产生涟漪效应。规模庞大、耗电极高的数据中心在全美各地加速建设，已在局部地区导致能源供应紧张， 并引发了对电价上升的普遍担忧。同时，由于这些科技企业在整体经济活动中的占比日益增大，其庞大的资本开支可能会扭曲宏观经济数据的解读，成为影 响经济决策的新变量。 据凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司分析师分析，全球数据中心建设浪潮正在这股力量的推动下再次提速。从芯 ...

2026.02. 08 本文字数：2470，阅读时长大约4分钟 在理论定义中，AGI被视为AI的终极状态，意味着系统能在会计、法律等多个白领专业领域达到并取 代人类的智力水平。 现代AI"教父"之一本吉奥（Yoshua Bengio）警示称，AGI的研发进程可能会陷入停滞，而这种停滞 对投资者而言无异于灾难。他称，行业很可能在不久的将来"碰壁"，面对目前无法预见且难以快速解 决的技术瓶颈，这可能诱发一场真正的金融崩盘。毕竟，当前涌向AI领域的数万亿资金，大多建立 在技术能以目前速度规律进步的乐观预期之上。 罗伯特·李凭借其在帝国理工学院深造电子工程的学术背景，也提供了基于技术视角的结论。他表 示："从本质上看，AI运行的底层逻辑近年来并未发生颠覆性变革，真正的改变在于算力与存储能力 的爆发式增长，以及模型从处理单一数字数据向多模态（涵盖文本、视频和音频）的进化。尽管如 此，这些模型的核心仍是模式识别，实质上是极其复杂的统计模型。" 罗伯特·李形象地解释道，当用户利用AI模型搜索量子计算时，模型只是通过训练库或互联网搜集海 量资料，并利用模式识别提取共性并予以总结。这种功能虽然高效，却并非真正的智能。 作者 | ...

2026年刚刚走过一个月，中国都还没有迎来农历新年，这一年的AI战事会是什么基调已经初现端倪。 随着硅谷巨头进入财报周，很明显的信号是新的一年AI投入会加大，光是谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta、亚马逊、微软四家的相关投入就可能 高达6500亿美元，超过以色列一年的GDP总和。 更不要说甲骨文、特斯拉、xAI、OpenAI、Anthropic等玩家也在努力奋进，零零总总加起来，2026年这些公司围绕AI的投入可能要达到7500 亿美元了。 更不要提OpenAI还有"八年1.4万亿"的基建承诺，若按照平均值粗略计算进去，这个数字冲着万亿美元去了。 这实在是疯狂。 而在国内，大厂的支出虽然不像硅谷"七巨头"那样夸张，但同样可以看到保持或加大AI投入的决心。头部大厂一年的投入也已经来到了千亿 人民币的水平。 最明显的是，距离春节还有几天，腾讯、百度、阿里等大厂就已经迫不及待打起"春节AI红包大战"，承诺的规模已经超过了45亿元。 2026年，注定是AI战事大开大合的一年。 硅谷狂投9250亿美元 硅谷巨头已经"疯"了。 在硅谷"七巨头"中，谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、Meta、亚马逊四家2026年计划给A ...

Core Viewpoint - The sell-off in software stocks is considered overdone by Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, who argues that the market has overreacted to concerns about AI disrupting the software industry [1][5]. Software Industry Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined 30% from its peak, entering bear market territory, driven by fears surrounding AI's impact on software companies [1]. - Huang believes that AI tools will complement existing software rather than replace it, suggesting that the current market sentiment is illogical [5]. Attractive Software Stocks - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Stock down 27% from its high, currently trading at 26 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 24% last quarter and a 160% increase in paid copilot seats [6]. - **Datadog (DDOG)**: Stock down 47% from its high, trading at 53 times adjusted earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 20% last quarter despite high R&D spending [7]. - **AppLovin (APP)**: Stock down 52% from its high, trading at 45 times earnings, with earnings up 96% last quarter [8]. - **Atlassian (TEAM)**: Stock down 70% from its high, trading at 22 times earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 27% last quarter [9]. - **HubSpot (HUBS)**: Stock down 73% from its high, trading at 25 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 22% last quarter [9]. Market Outlook - While software stocks may continue to decline in the near term, long-term investors are likely to benefit from purchasing stocks at reasonable prices, anticipating significant earnings growth over the next five years [10].

Group 1 - Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is considered a promising stock, with Barclays reiterating a Buy rating and setting a price target of $600 [1] - The UK government is collaborating with Microsoft and experts to develop a system for detecting deepfake content, addressing the rise of AI-generated deceptive materials [2][4] - A framework is being established to evaluate technologies for understanding and detecting harmful deepfakes, focusing on real-world threats like fraud and impersonation [3] Group 2 - The UK has criminalized the creation of non-consensual intimate images and is working on a deepfake detection evaluation framework to set consistent standards for detection tools [4] - Truist has raised its price target for Microsoft to $675 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating strong market confidence in the company's future [7]

【文/观察者网 王恺雯】美国人工智能（AI）竞赛不断升温，五家科技巨头2026年资本支出飙升至近7000亿美 元，引发不少专家和投资人担忧。 《华盛顿邮报》2月7日刊文称，7000亿美元的人工智能投资狂潮堪称史无前例，而科技行业在该领域无止境的支 出，正在转移社会对其他经济领域的注意力，导致其他行业资源短缺。 "电工越来越难找，一些建筑项目被搁置。未来几年，智能手机的价格预计会越来越贵，其他有前景的创新也将缺 乏投资资金。"报道写道。 《华盛顿邮报》称，包括亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta和甲骨文在内的五家美国人工智能巨头今年总计将在大型项 目上投入约7000亿美元，用以建设配备强大计算机芯片的数据中心，增强人工智能的计算能力。这一支出规模几 乎比去年增加近一倍，相当于美国最近一年国防预算的四分之三。 美国五家科技巨头2026年预计资本支出 《华盛顿邮报》截图 科技公司表示，投资或举债开发AI，已经让它们从渴望使用这一技术的企业和消费者那里获得了更高的收入。但 批评人士担心，开发AI的前期成本巨大，除非AI能从根本上重塑生活、工作和经济，并为科技公司带来巨额新利 润，这些投资才可能获得回报。 根据摩根大通去年秋天 ...

Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant growth and compounding, with a substantial contracted backlog indicating future revenue growth [1] - The integration of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot enhances customer retention by providing a comprehensive infrastructure to applications solution [1] - The company's deliberate increase in investments is aimed at sustaining this growth trajectory [1] Group 1 - Microsoft has a large contracted backlog that represents future revenue potential [1] - The combination of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot creates a synergistic effect that increases customer stickiness [1] - Higher investments are a strategic choice to support ongoing growth [1]

Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant growth and compounding, with a substantial contracted backlog indicating future revenue growth [1] - The integration of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot enhances customer retention by providing a comprehensive infrastructure to applications solution [1] - The company's deliberate increase in investments is aimed at sustaining this growth trajectory [1] Group 1 - Microsoft has a large contracted backlog that represents future revenue potential [1] - The synergy between Azure, Foundry, and Copilot contributes to greater customer stickiness [1] - Higher investments are a strategic choice to support ongoing growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The loyalty of employees in Silicon Valley has diminished, with significant "acqui-hire" events occurring, indicating a shift towards a "mercenary" culture in the tech industry [1][3]. Group 1: Major Acqui-Hire Events - In June 2025, Meta invested $14.3 billion to acquire Alexandr Wang from Scale AI [1]. - In July 2025, Google spent $2.4 billion to acquire technology from Windsurf, bringing in its founder Varun Mohan and research team into DeepMind [1]. - In December 2025, NVIDIA reached a $20 billion agreement with Groq to acquire its core inference technology and CEO Jonathan Ross along with key executives [1]. Group 2: Talent Mobility and Motivations - Talent mobility is categorized into "voluntary" and "involuntary" job changes, with motivations including high salaries, access to cutting-edge resources, and the pursuit of promising technologies [4]. - The trend of researchers moving from Google to OpenAI began in early 2023, with at least five Google Brain researchers joining OpenAI before the launch of ChatGPT [6][7]. Group 3: High Salaries and Recruitment Strategies - Meta's aggressive recruitment strategy included a compensation package of up to $300 million over four years, with the first year's salary exceeding $100 million [15]. - The competition for AI talent has led to a "mercenary culture," where employees prioritize financial incentives over loyalty to their companies [23][24]. Group 4: Acqui-Hire as a Strategy - Acqui-hire has become a popular strategy among Silicon Valley giants, allowing companies to acquire talent without the complexities of full mergers [40]. - The case of Google acquiring Windsurf illustrates the potential fallout from such strategies, as remaining employees felt abandoned and betrayed [44]. Group 5: Cultural Shifts in the Tech Industry - A cultural shift is occurring in the tech industry, where employees are increasingly wary of long-term commitments to a single company, driven by rapid technological advancements [54][57]. - The speed of innovation in AI means that working for a startup can yield experience equivalent to several years in traditional tech roles [57]. Group 6: Domestic Talent Wars - The competition for AI talent is not limited to Silicon Valley; domestic companies are also aggressively recruiting from top labs, with Tencent and ByteDance making significant hires from OpenAI and Google DeepMind [60][62]. Group 7: The Value of AI Talent - The scarcity of top AI talent makes them a strategic asset for companies, with the potential to significantly impact model training costs and performance [64].