50 年前的本周，一封名为《致电脑爱好者的一封公开信》在刚兴起的计算机爱好者圈子中流传开来。这封由 20 岁的比尔・盖茨撰写的信件，因非常直白 地炮轰"软件盗版"问题，在当时掀起轩然大波，其彼时抱怨道："你们这样做就是在偷窃。" 如今恰逢发布 50 周年，这封至今保存在《纽约时报》档案中的内容再次展现在大众视野上，随即也冲上了 HN 热榜，引发了新一轮讨论。 时代背景，Altair 8800 开启个人电脑革命 时间拉回 1975 年，搭载了 Intel 8080 CPU 和 S-100 总线卡的 Altair 8800 横空出世。 这款没有键盘、没有显示器，甚至默认仅为简陋套件的机器，却意外开启了桌面个人电脑革命，它催生了早期 PC 社区与生态的形成。 正是这款机器，让 20 岁的比尔・盖茨与 22 岁的保罗・艾伦找到了合作契机。两人便主动联系 Altair 开发商 MITS，声称已经为这台微型计算机完成了一 套 BASIC 解释器。 时任 MITS 公司负责人 Ed Roberts 很快同意了这次合作，邀请其二人为 Altair 编写软件。随后，艾伦前往 MITS 公司，全职参与与 MITS 的对接与支持； ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The narrative of "Software-mageddon" is gaining traction among global investors, with debates on whether to initiate bullish calls on recently battered software stocks [1] - Large institutional investors are beginning to enter the market to buy the dip in software stocks that have experienced significant declines, with some supporting optimistic views on AI-focused software giants [1][3] - The S&P 500 Software and Services Index has dropped approximately 25% since its recent peak at the end of October, while the overall S&P 500 index has remained relatively stable [3][4] Group 2: Impact of AI Tools - The launch of Anthropic's AI programming tool, Claude Cowork, has intensified fears of AI agents disrupting the SaaS software industry, leading to a collective sell-off in software stocks [2] - The S&P 500 Software and Services Index experienced its worst performance since May 2002, with a significant market cap loss exceeding $800 billion [4] Group 3: Investor Reactions and Divergence - Institutional investors are showing mixed reactions, with some cautiously buying while others remain hesitant, indicating a divide in sentiment regarding the software sector [8] - Some portfolio managers are starting to see long-term value in certain software stocks, while others are waiting for stronger catalysts, such as robust AI-related revenue reports, before making aggressive purchases [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook and AI Integration - The market is reassessing the value chain in the software industry, with AI potentially redistributing profits rather than completely replacing existing software infrastructure [11][12] - The current sell-off is seen as a response to the question of how much profit pools will be redistributed among SaaS vendors due to AI advancements, with a focus on real deployment and revenue growth from AI-related products [12][13]

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 围魏救赵 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌0.64%，收报4075.92点；深证成指跌 1.44%，收报13952.71点；创业板指跌1.55%，收报3260.28点。 沪深京三市成交额仅有 21945亿，较昨日缩量3090亿。 老水看盘 上证指数今天呈现缩量回调态势，走出浅 V 形态，K 线图收出一根阳十字星。 特别值得关注的是港股的走势，今天恒生指数、恒生科技指数同样呈现探底回升走势，特别是 恒生指数收盘上涨 0.14%，成交金额 3151 亿港币，处于放量水平。资金面方面，北水南下 态势显著，今天净买入金额达 249 亿港币，较昨天翻了一倍。 个股方面，此前遭刻意做空的腾讯控股从下跌 3% 一路反弹至红盘报收，宣布 50 亿美元回 购计划的百度高开高走，阿里巴巴盘中一度下跌 3%，最终亦红盘收盘。恒生科技指数的探底 回升，与 A 股调整后有望反身向上的方向保持一致。（本文数据来自：choice数据） 一句话点评：围魏救赵 。 截至收盘，上证指数下跌 0.64%，深证成指跌幅更大，达 1.44%。个股表现普遍回落，下跌 个股数量达 3553 家， ...

从信贷市场表现来看，目前尚未出现大规模恐慌情绪，相关企业的循环信贷额度尚未被动用。随着多家 软件公司即将发布最新财报，市场情绪或迎来阶段性转变。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 2026年以来，美股软件行业遭遇持续抛售，板块总市值累计蒸发1万亿美元。金融分析公司S3 Partners 的数据显示，对冲基金同期通过做空软件股已获得240亿美元收益。 据华尔街两家大型基金的消息人士透露，对冲基金正加大对软件股的做空力度，成为该板块抛售潮的主 要推手之一。其做空目标具有明确指向性，集中于为客户提供基础自动化服务的公司——这类业务极易 被新的人工智能工具取代。在软件板块相关目标个股遭遇抛售的背景下，做空者并未选择收手，反而将 股价下跌视作加码押注的机会。当前部分软件个股做空集中度较高，Asana有超过25%的流通股被做 空，Dropbox的流通股做空比例为19%。 此次抛售潮并未局限于中小型软件公司，行业巨头同样面临下行压力。微软、甲骨文、Salesforce、 Adobe等头部企业年内均出现显著跌幅，税务软件制造商Intu ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 美股大型科技股盘前涨跌互现，英伟达涨1%，亚马逊、特斯拉涨0.1%，Meta跌0.1%，苹果跌0.8%，微 软、谷歌A跌1%。 ...

Microsoft - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire stake in Microsoft during the third quarter, which ended four months ago [2][3] - Microsoft's financial results for the December-ended quarter showed a 17% revenue increase to $81 billion, with non-GAAP net income rising 24% to $4.14 per diluted share [5] - Concerns about capital expenditures, which increased by 66% in the quarter due to investments in AI infrastructure, led to a sharp decline in Microsoft's stock [6] - The investment thesis for Microsoft is based on its strength in enterprise software and cloud services, with the enterprise software market expected to grow at 12% annually through 2030 and the cloud computing market at 16% annually through 2033 [7] - AI is central to Microsoft's growth strategy, with a 160% increase in paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats and a tenfold increase in daily active users in the December quarter [8] - Microsoft Foundry, a cloud service used by over 80% of Fortune 500 companies, saw nearly 80% growth in customers spending $1 million per quarter [9] - Currently, Microsoft stock is 24% below its high, trading at 27 times earnings, with adjusted earnings forecasted to grow at 15% annually through the fiscal year ending in June 2027 [10] Amazon - Druckenmiller initiated a position in Amazon during the third quarter, with the company's financial results for the September-ended quarter showing a 13% revenue increase to $180 billion and a 25% increase in non-GAAP operating income to $21.7 billion [12] - The investment thesis for Amazon is based on its strengths in online retail, digital advertising, and cloud services, with retail e-commerce sales projected to grow at 12% annually through 2030, adtech spending at 14% annually, and cloud computing at 16% annually through 2033 [13] - Amazon has integrated AI across its core businesses to enhance sales and operational efficiency, utilizing generative AI tools for demand forecasting, inventory management, and delivery optimization [14] - Amazon Web Services monetizes AI at various layers of the technology stack, including custom chips, generative AI services, and application-level tools [15] - During the third quarter, Amazon's share price averaged $220, and although it is slightly more expensive today, its valuation of 33 times earnings remains reasonable with earnings expected to grow at 15% annually through 2027 [16]

Britain will work with Microsoft , academics and experts to develop a system to spot deepfake material online, the government said on Thursday, as it moves to set standards for tackling harmful and de... ...

Stifel Nicolaus sets a price target of $392 for Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), indicating a potential downside of about -5.36%.Microsoft's Azure division reports a 39% growth, highlighting strong performance in cloud computing.The stock experienced a 10% decline post-quarterly results, contrasting with Meta Platforms' stock rise.Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a leading technology company known for its software products, cloud services, and hardware. It competes with other tech giants like Appl ...

Company Insights - Microsoft is viewed as an attractive investment due to its significant growth potential, particularly with the integration of AI technologies like co-pilot, which is expected to be ubiquitous across various applications [2][3] - Amazon is highlighted for its dominance in online retail, processing four out of every $10 spent online, and is expected to benefit from increased efficiency and productivity through AI, leading to improved margins in the long term [4][5] - GE Aerospace is mentioned as another investment pick, although specific details on its performance or outlook were not provided in the discussion [5] Market Drivers - The economy and markets are anticipated to be driven by three main factors: tax policy, monetary policy, and labor productivity, with a bullish outlook on these elements [6] - Labor productivity has shown a notable increase, with a growth rate of 4% in the last two quarters, and the break-even job replacement number has significantly decreased to 35,000 from 250,000, indicating a healthier job market [7] - Tax policy changes are expected to inject approximately $790 billion into the economy this year, largely due to overwithholding and lower taxes, which is comparable to the stimulus provided during COVID [8][9] Earnings Performance - A strong earnings season is underway, with 80% of companies reporting earnings that exceed expectations, indicating a positive trend not only among major tech companies but also across a broader range of firms [10]

又崩了！硅谷软件巨头短短一夜，蒸发3000亿美金，过去一周全球近万亿美金没了。令人想不到的是，罪魁祸首竟是Anthropic推出的一款插件。 瞳孔地震！一夜之间，全球软件股集体跳水，蒸发3000亿美金。 如今，整个硅谷都在说：软件（SaaS）已死！ | 90 0 0 00 | TrendSpider & @TrendSpider · 6h * BREAKING: Software stocks. | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | * 突发新闻:软件股。 | | | | | | | | | | | Softwarn: & Change% vs 52wk High (US equity, Fx) & Change% vs 52wk High (US equity, Fx) Customze ... | | Q | | | | | | × | | | IBM -9.60% | ADSK -27.26% | | GRAB -35.04% | | SAP -38.87% | | SNOW ...