以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者黄君芝 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 知名做空投资人、素有"大空头"之称的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）再次对人工智能（AI）泡沫发出警告。他"剑指"当前科技繁荣称，长 期低迷即将到来。 伯里因在2008年金融危机前精准做空抵押贷款支持证券而声名鹊起，迈克尔·刘易斯（Michael Lewis）的著作《大空头》和奥斯卡获 奖影片《大空头》都记录了他的这一交易。 去年10月底，伯里在沉寂数年后重返公众视野。自那以来，他多次预警股市泡沫风险，披露了做空英伟达等AI股的新仓位，并推出了S ubstack付费通讯专栏，以向外界自由输出其投资观点。 长期低迷 伯里在Substack上发文警告称，包括微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet在内的所谓超大规模数据中心运营商，正在将巨额资金浪费在微芯片和数 据中心上，而这些设备很快就会过时，因为用于驱动诸如聊天机器人等人工智能工具的这些设备将会变得标准化。 他将此事与"股神"巴菲特在20世纪60年代短暂拥有的巴尔的摩百货公司Hochschild-Kohn进行了比较。 "街对面的百货公司装了自 ...

Group 1 - The "Seven Giants" of the US stock market are experiencing a breakdown, with only Alphabet and Nvidia outperforming the S&P 500 index in the past year [2][3] - The market is shifting towards a more selective investment approach, moving away from blind investments in the entire sector to targeted bets on companies that can demonstrate AI's impact on their business [3][6] - The correlation among the "Seven Giants" has collapsed, with their stock price movements no longer synchronized, despite all having trillion-dollar valuations [6][8] Group 2 - The AI trading logic has evolved, with some investors expecting AI benefits to spread to sectors like healthcare, while others continue to invest heavily in chip manufacturers or energy companies [7] - Companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are investing hundreds of billions in training new AI models and expanding cloud capabilities, while Nvidia remains a leader in the chip market for advanced AI models [8] - Tesla's stock has significantly underperformed due to a slowdown in electric vehicle sales, and its retail trading activity has dropped by 43% compared to two years ago [12][8] Group 3 - Despite the performance divergence, the "Seven Giants" still hold significant market influence, collectively accounting for about 36% of the S&P 500 index's market capitalization [13] - Historical trends show that popular investment groupings can become outdated, with no current alternative to the "Seven Giants" emerging yet [13]

Growth stocks continue to power the market.Growth stocks continued to lead the market higher and remain a great place to invest. If you have money on the sidelines you're looking to invest, here are five growth stocks you can invest $1,000 in each to start a nice growth-focused portfolio. 1. NvidiaThe biggest beneficiary of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout, Nvidia (NVDA 0.29%), continues to have a long runway of growth in front of it.AI data center spending continues to ramp up, and Nvidia's graphi ...

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is highlighted as a top debt-free stock to consider, particularly in light of recent export approvals for H200 AI processors to China, despite concerns regarding supply constraints of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) [1][2]. Group 1: Export Approval and Supply Constraints - The recent export approval for H200 AI processors to China has positioned NVIDIA favorably, although concerns have been raised about the shortage of DRAM, which is critical for these processors [1]. - House Representative John Moolenaar has alerted Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the immediate challenges posed by DRAM supply constraints, indicating that the chips destined for China could represent an opportunity cost for American customers [1]. - The three main manufacturers of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology — have warned of supply constraints and potential shortages, which could impact NVIDIA's ability to fulfill orders [2]. Group 2: Analyst Sentiment and Company Fundamentals - Analysts at Jefferies have maintained a bullish outlook on NVIDIA, raising their price target from $250 to $275, citing that the stock remains relatively cheap compared to 2027 estimates [4]. - NVIDIA designs and manufactures a range of products including graphics processing units (GPUs), system-on-a-chip (SoC) units, and AI hardware and software, which are utilized across various sectors such as gaming, data centers, and autonomous vehicles [4].

知名做空投资人、素有"大空头"之称的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）再次对人工智能（AI）泡沫发出 警告。他"剑指"当前科技繁荣称，长期低迷即将到来。 伯里因在2008年金融危机前精准做空抵押贷款支持证券而声名鹊起，迈克尔·刘易斯 （Michael Lewis）的著作《大空头》和奥斯卡获奖影片《大空头》都记录了他的这一交易。 去年10月底，伯里在沉寂数年后重返公众视野。自那以来，他多次预警股市泡沫风险，披露 了做空英伟达等AI股的新仓位，并推出了Substack付费通讯专栏，以向外界自由输出其投资 观点。 长期低迷 伯里在Substack上发文警告称，包括微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet在内的所谓超大规模数据中心运营商， 正在将巨额资金浪费在微芯片和数据中心上，而这些设备很快就会过时，因为用于驱动诸如聊天机器人 等人工智能工具的这些设备将会变得标准化。 他将此事与"股神"巴菲特在20世纪60年代短暂拥有的巴尔的摩百货公司Hochschild-Kohn进行了比较。 辣评AI宠儿 事实上，伯里在好几篇文章中都抨击了那些高歌猛进的人工智能股票，并警告它们估值过高，注定会暴 跌。 在他最新发布的帖子中，他有 ...

Core Insights - The global AI infrastructure investment is entering a new super cycle, driven by technology upgrades and supply shortages in key components, with significant growth expected in the AI network market until 2026 or 2027 [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The shipment of 800G optical modules is projected to increase from 20 million units in 2025 to 43 million units in 2026, while 1.6T optical module shipments are expected to surge from 2.5 million units to 20 million units [1] - The penetration rate of silicon photonics (SiPh) technology in the 800G/1.6T market is anticipated to reach 50-70% [1] - The optical module market is experiencing structural growth opportunities, with Ethernet optical module market revenue expected to surge by 93% in 2024, followed by 48% and 35% growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [12] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply chain bottlenecks are expected to strengthen the competitive advantage of leading companies, with advanced optical chip production capacity projected to grow over 80% by 2026, yet still lagging behind demand by 5-15% [2] - Major players like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication are positioned to maintain significant market shares in the 800G/1.6T optical module market, with Zhongji Xuchuang expected to hold 25-30% and 35-40% shares, respectively [12] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The evolution of technology is critical, with AI giants like NVIDIA, Google, Meta, and Amazon AWS actively upgrading their network architectures through various technological paths, including SiPh, Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [1] - CPO technology is expected to accelerate commercialization starting in 2026, with penetration rates projected to rise from 3% in 2026 to 20% by 2030, and market size expected to grow from $1.6 billion to $13.1 billion during the same period [14] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Trends - The optical fiber and cable market is showing a bifurcated trend, with strong demand from AI data centers, where AI application optical cable demand is expected to grow by 138% in 2024 and 77% in 2025 [13] - The Ethernet switch market is experiencing robust growth, with a 35.2% year-on-year increase in revenue in Q3 2025, and a significant rise in 800G switch revenue by 91.6% [17]

Nvidia is facing more challenges when it comes to selling its artificial-intelligence chips to China. But analysts are still backing the stock to get out of its rut. ...

Core Insights - Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, emphasizes that the company's success is not based on GPU production volume but rather on its unique corporate culture and innovation capabilities [1][24] - Huang predicts that AI investments will fundamentally change computing, leading to computers that can learn autonomously under human guidance, resulting in a transformation of job roles rather than a reduction in employment [2][41] - Nvidia's management structure is designed to foster a safe environment where mistakes are tolerated, allowing for innovation and growth without fear of termination [1][25] Group 1: Company Philosophy and Culture - Nvidia has cultivated a culture where no one is fired for making mistakes, fostering a safe environment for innovation [1][25] - The company has a unique management structure with nearly 61 individuals acting as "CEOs," each deeply committed to the company's mission [1][18] - Huang believes that the essence of Nvidia's success lies in its corporate character and the ability to unite the team in adversity [24] Group 2: Vision for the Future - Huang asserts that in five years, AI will enable computers to handle problems a billion times larger than current capabilities, fundamentally altering the nature of work [38][39] - The future will see an increase in productivity and efficiency across industries, with AI solving previously insurmountable challenges [40][41] - Huang anticipates that while job roles will evolve, the overall number of jobs will not decrease, and AI will provide new opportunities for those currently unemployed [41][44] Group 3: Historical Context and Personal Insights - Nvidia's journey has spanned 33 years, with a consistent focus on reshaping the computing industry since its inception [5][16] - Huang reflects on the importance of learning from past decisions and maintaining a flexible approach to leadership and strategy [14][15] - The company has a history of making bold decisions, such as the early adoption of CUDA technology, which laid the groundwork for its current success [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The AI medical sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant commercial opportunities emerging. Major players like NVIDIA and Eli Lilly are investing heavily in AI drug development, while domestic companies like Ant Group are promoting AI health management products [5][13][14]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app has transitioned into the "AI service era," integrating over 400 AI service functions and achieving over 100 million monthly active users, showcasing the potential for AI applications in enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a self-sufficient and efficient computing infrastructure in response to increasing global competition and the exponential growth of AI application demands [16]. Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Healthcare - The AI healthcare sector is at a commercial inflection point, with significant investments from both domestic and international companies. Key areas of growth include AI drug development, medical imaging analysis, and personal health management, which are expected to see increased investment value as clinical validation and regulatory frameworks improve [5][14]. Development of AI Ecosystem - Domestic tech giants are rapidly advancing their AI ecosystems, leveraging their large user bases and data resources. This integration is expected to enhance service delivery and operational efficiency across various sectors [15][16]. Market Performance - The computer sector index rose by 3.82% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, indicating positive market sentiment [8]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies for investment consideration, including: - AI Computing: Cambrian (688256.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Inspur Information (000977.SZ), and Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) [6][17]. - Vertical AI Applications: Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), Dingjie Zhizhi (300378.SZ), Hand Information (300170.SZ), and others [6][17].

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 19 日 行业及产业 电子 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业周报：NVIDIA 宣布 Rubin 平台全 面量产》2026-01-12 《电子行业跟踪报告：2026 年 Neuralink 将对 脑机接口设备进行大规模生产》2026-01-12 《人工智能月度跟踪：CES 2026 AI 前沿信息 汇总》2026-01-09 《电子行业周报：国产 DRAM 存储龙头 IPO 成 功受理》2026-01-06 《爱建电子深度报告：卫星通信加速进入发展 元年》2026-01-05 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 朱俊宇 S0820125040021 021-32229888-25520 zhujunyu@ajzq.com 台积电 25Q4 单季度业绩创历史新高 ——电子行业周报（2026/1/12-1/18） 本周（2026/1/12-1/18）SW 电子行业指数（+3.77%），涨跌幅排名 2/ ...