三年前，OpenAI发布了火爆一时的ChatGPT，引发了人们对人工智能（AI）的狂热。尽管资金仍在源 源不断地涌入，但人们也愈发质疑这股热潮能否持续下去。 从近期英伟达股票遭到抛售，到甲骨文公司在报告AI支出增加后的股价暴跌，再到围绕OpenAI相关公 司的市场情绪恶化，种种迹象表明，投资者对AI的怀疑情绪正在加剧。 展望2026年，华尔街上关于AI泡沫的激辩开始变得不同了。他们普遍确信那就是个泡沫，并开始争论 最终戳破泡沫的会是什么，以及是在潜在的泡沫破裂之前控制AI风险敞口，还是冒险加倍下注，利用 这项改变游戏规则的技术。 资本管理公司Callodine Capital Management首席执行官Jim Morrow表示："我们正处于经济周期的关键阶 段。这是一个很好的故事，但我们现在有点急于观望，看看投资回报是否会很好。" AI交易的令人不安之处包括它的商业化应用、开发它的巨大成本，以及消费者最终是否会为这些服务 付费。这些答案将对股市的未来产生重大影响。标普500指数近三年的牛市在很大程度上是由谷歌和微 软等科技巨头，以及芯片制造商英伟达和博通等受益于AI基础设施支出的公司推动的。如果它们停止 ...

12月15日，AI算力产业链震荡调整，午后跌幅扩大。截至13点44分，创业板人工智能ETF华夏 （159381）下跌1.70%；云计算50ETF（516630）下跌1.18%；5G通信ETF（515050）下跌2.50%。 临近年末，尽管算力板块波动加剧，但资金仍在积极布局，近4个交易日，光模块CPO概念股权重占比 超57%且同类费率最低的创业板人工智能ETF华夏（159381）获得资金连续净流入，累计吸金超2.9亿 元。 消息面上，近日，OpenAI发布企业级AI现状报告。根据报告数据，2025年企业端AI调用量同比增长8 倍，其中企业定制化GPT的使用量增长19倍；价值评估方面，75%的员工效率有所提升，平均每名员工 每天节约40-60分钟，能力平权和人员降本价值凸显；行业细分来看，客户数增速中位数是6倍，模型落 地渗透率仍有极大提升空间。 中信证券表示，展望2026年，我们认为以底层强化学习技术进步为基础，模型逻辑推理能力将进一步提 升，支撑各领域Agent落地，带动企业端AI从降本到增收打开落地空间，其中数据分析、代码生成、人 力招聘、销售辅助、智能客服等场景需求较为清晰。建议持续关注AI在财务、人力 ...

上周五，美股AI科技股迎来了一场"腥风血雨"：英伟达、甲骨文和博通为首的科技股相继大跌，让投资者对AI泡沫和算力基建前景的担忧重燃。 事实上，在最近的财报季中，英伟达、甲骨文和博通都交出了强劲的财报业绩，公司高管们也在财报电话会上反复强调公司业绩增长的前途 无量。 但与AI热潮初期投资者们狂热的"all in AI"不同，这一次，投资者们的目光不在专注于那些令人头晕目眩的超高增速上，而是聚焦在了支出 成本、毛利率和风险因素之上。 这也表明，围绕AI的交易逻辑正逐渐从"宏大叙事"转向"现实回报"。一些投资者们担忧，AI泡沫的破裂，似乎已经进入倒计时。 "这只股票（博通）今年迄今已上涨75-80%。现在出现了一些回调也很正常，"瑞穗证券分析师维杰·拉凯什周五表示，"我们会 在回调时买入。" 但是，也有分析师认为，博通的股价下跌可能更多是由于市场对于AI泡沫的整体焦虑情绪。 博通的好成绩单却换来市场"毒打"？ 在这样的转变潮流中，博通可谓是一个代表案例。该公司在上周发布了一份全面好于预期的财报后，股价却在周五暴跌11.43%。这是该股 自今年1月份暴跌17.4%以来最大的单日跌幅。 财报显示，在人工智能数据中心定制 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [34]. Core Insights - Alibaba has established the "Qianwen C-end Business Group" to develop an AI super app, aiming to enhance its AI to consumer (AI to C) strategy and create a comprehensive AI assistant for users [10][12]. - OpenAI has released the GPT-5.2 model, which is optimized for professional applications, marking a shift towards specialized capabilities in the AI model competition [13][14]. - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, signaling a shift in export policy towards conditional release rather than outright restrictions [17][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on companies related to the Qianwen and domestic computing power supply chain, including Data Port, Qianfang Technology, Guangyun Technology, Boyan Technology, Shiji Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, Horizon Robotics, and Black Sesame Intelligence [3]. Industry News - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end Business Group aims to integrate various consumer-facing services into a single AI super app, enhancing user engagement and accessibility [10][12]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model has set new benchmarks in various professional tasks, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [14][16]. - The U.S. has permitted NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, which are crucial for AI model training, reflecting a strategic adjustment in technology export policies [17][18]. Company Dynamics - The establishment of the Qianwen C-end Business Group by Alibaba represents a significant organizational shift aimed at enhancing its AI capabilities and market presence [12]. - OpenAI's rapid iteration of its models, including the recent release of GPT-5.2, highlights the intense competition in the AI sector and the need for continuous innovation [14][16]. - The policy change regarding the export of H200 chips is expected to alleviate some high-end computing power shortages in China, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic advancements in chip technology [18].

12月9日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体发声，称将允许英伟达向中国"经批准的客户"出口H200人工智能芯片。这一政策调整，还附带了特殊条件——相 关销售收入的25%需上缴美国政府。 消息引发全球科技界与市场的广泛关注，市场纷纷猜测，美国是要放松对华高科技产品出口了？ 客观来讲，作为H100芯片的升级版，H200芯片的单卡性能比此前获准对华出口的H20芯片（仅为H100算力的80%）性能更优，可以缓解中国AI产业的算 力瓶颈。 但美国突然松口还得全面看。中国外交学院外交学系教授苏浩分析，美国此次政策调整，是商业利益与政治图谋共同作用的结果，"一方面英伟达离不开 中国市场，一方面美国仍不想放弃遏制中国芯片产业发展。" 中国已是全球最大的芯片消费市场，英伟达等美国科技企业当然心知肚明。数据很能说明问题：中国市场曾为英伟达贡献了超170亿美元的年收入，但美 国的出口限制已导致英伟达对华芯片销售陷入停滞。今年11月，英伟达CEO黄仁勋就坦言，"我预测英伟达在中国市场的销售额将为零。下一季度为零， 再下一季度还是零"。 英伟达官网 新华社 发 1 这次美国突然对H200芯片"松绑"，还留了一手。苏浩说，美国最先进芯片的对华 ...

行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) -6.0 8.5 36.0 沪深 300 -1.0 1.1 16.5 市场表现 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 博通甲骨文业绩引市场波动，AI 缺电持续演绎 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：英伟达预 警 AI 能源危机，国产电力设备迎北 美突破性机遇》2025-12-08 2、《电力设备行业周报：工信部推 进电池反内卷，机器人整机密集启 动 IPO》2025-12-01 3、《电力设备行业周报：全栈式软 硬件构筑谷歌 AI 生态护城河，关注 产业链公司投资机遇》2025-11-23 ▌ 博通甲骨文业绩引市场波动，AI 缺电持续演绎 周五晚上随着博通和甲骨文相继引发市场对 AI 泡沫的担忧， ...

智通财经12月15日讯（编辑 刘蕊）上周五，美股AI科技股迎来了一场"腥风血雨"：英伟达、甲骨文和 博通为首的科技股相继大跌，让投资者对AI泡沫和算力基建前景的担忧重燃。 这也表明，围绕AI的交易逻辑正逐渐从"宏大叙事"转向"现实回报"。一些投资者们担忧，AI泡沫的破 裂，似乎已经进入倒计时。 博通的好成绩单却换来市场"毒打"？ 在这样的转变潮流中，博通可谓是一个代表案例。该公司在上周发布了一份全面好于预期的财报后，股 价却在周五暴跌11.43%。这是该股自今年1月份暴跌17.4%以来最大的单日跌幅。 事实上，在最近的财报季中，英伟达、甲骨文和博通都交出了强劲的财报业绩，公司高管们也在财报电 话会上反复强调公司业绩增长的前途无量。 但与AI热潮初期投资者们狂热的"all in AI"不同，这一次，投资者们的目光不在专注于那些令人头晕目 眩的超高增速上，而是聚焦在了支出成本、毛利率和风险因素之上。 财报显示，在人工智能数据中心定制处理器以及相关网络芯片的销售激增下，博通取得了强劲的业绩增 长。在与分析师的电话会议上，博通首席执行官陈福阳反复强调，当前730亿美元的积压订单并不意味 着未来18个月的全部交付营收， ...

华尔街对人工智能投资的质疑声正在加剧。三年前ChatGPT引发的AI狂热浪潮，如今面临着越来越多的 挑战。 近期英伟达股价遭遇抛售，甲骨文公司在披露AI支出增加后股价暴跌，围绕OpenAI相关企业的市场情 绪持续恶化。这些迹象表明，投资者对AI领域的怀疑情绪正在蔓延。 展望2026年，华尔街关于AI泡沫的讨论已不再是是否存在泡沫的问题。业界普遍认为泡沫确实存在， 争论焦点转向了什么因素最终会戳破这个泡沫。 尽管大型科技企业的估值较高，但与过去的市场繁荣时期相比，其估值远未过高。以科技股为主的纳指 预期市盈率为26倍，而在互联网泡沫鼎盛时期，这一数字超过了80倍。 英伟达、Alphabet和微软的市盈率都低于30倍，考虑到围绕它们的市场兴奋情绪，这一市盈率相对温 和。但PalantirTechnologies的市盈率超过180倍，Snowflake的预期市盈率接近140倍，这些都是估值高得 离谱的AI股票。 华尔街对AI泡沫的担忧反映了一个关键问题：巨额投资与实际回报之间的巨大差距。虽然风险显而易 见，但大多数企业的股价尚未达到引发恐慌的水平，这让投资者陷入了两难境地。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has recently declined by approximately 17% from its 52-week high, raising questions about whether this presents a buying opportunity amid fluctuating investor sentiment towards AI [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nvidia's fiscal third-quarter revenue increased by 62% year over year to $57.0 billion, surpassing the 56% growth reported in the previous quarter, indicating a return to accelerating growth [5]. - The data center segment, which is crucial for AI hardware demand, saw a revenue growth of 66% year over year, reaching $51.2 billion in fiscal Q3, up from 56% growth in the prior quarter [6]. - Operating income for fiscal Q3 rose by 65% year over year to $36.0 billion, while earnings per share increased by 67% to $1.30 [6]. Future Guidance - Nvidia has provided guidance for fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $65.0 billion, which suggests about 14% sequential growth and approximately 65% year-over-year growth [7]. Market Position and Risks - Despite the recent stock pullback making shares more appealing, the high valuation at around 43 times earnings poses risks if Nvidia cannot sustain its rapid growth or maintain high gross margins [9][13]. - The semiconductor industry is cyclical, and there are concerns that the AI buildout may slow down, which could negatively impact Nvidia's stock [10]. - Increased competition from tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon, which are developing their own chips, poses a potential threat to Nvidia's market share [10]. - Regulatory and geopolitical issues regarding AI chip sales to China add uncertainty to Nvidia's growth prospects in that market [11].

Core Insights - The article discusses NVIDIA's unique management structure under CEO Jensen Huang, who directly oversees a team of 36 executives, down from a peak of 55, emphasizing a flat organizational model that enhances information flow and decision-making efficiency [1][16][18]. Group 1: Management Philosophy - Huang believes that "information is power," requiring each executive to access firsthand information to accelerate decision-making and innovation [2][9]. - He has established a rule of "no proactive one-on-one meetings" to prevent information silos, but is always available for immediate communication when requested [2][10]. - This management style contrasts sharply with other tech leaders like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, who maintain smaller, more traditional management teams [5][7]. Group 2: Team Composition - Huang's direct reports include a mix of long-time veterans and industry experts, forming a diverse team that drives NVIDIA's success across various sectors, including GPUs, AI, and automotive chips [18][20]. - The core team consists of founding members and early contributors who have been integral to NVIDIA's growth from a small startup to a multi-trillion-dollar company [21][22]. Group 3: Key Executives - Chris Malachowsky, co-founder, focuses on core technology strategy and has over 40 years of experience in the semiconductor industry [25][30]. - Dwight Diercks, a long-serving executive, has been pivotal in developing software for NVIDIA's GPU and AI platforms [33][34]. - Jeff Fisher, responsible for the GeForce business, has played a crucial role in establishing NVIDIA's dominance in the gaming market [37][40]. Group 4: Technical Leadership - Bill Dally, NVIDIA's Chief Scientist, is known for his contributions to parallel computing and has been instrumental in the company's transition to a computing-focused entity [60][61]. - Michael Kagan, CTO, integrates networking technology with GPU capabilities, enhancing NVIDIA's data center solutions [68][71]. - Ian Buck, a pioneer in GPU computing, oversees NVIDIA's data center business and has been influential in developing the CUDA platform [77][80]. Group 5: Business Operations - Colette Kress, CFO, has been crucial in balancing R&D investments with profitability, helping NVIDIA achieve significant revenue growth [118][122]. - Jay Puri, responsible for global business development, has expanded NVIDIA's market presence across various sectors [126][130]. - Debora Shoquist, EVP of Operations, has restructured NVIDIA's supply chain to meet increasing demand for GPUs [138][143]. Group 6: New Ventures - Howard Wright, responsible for the Inception startup program, brings a unique background from sports and technology to foster innovation [199][205]. - Wu Xinzhou, overseeing automotive business, leverages his experience in autonomous driving to enhance NVIDIA's market position in this sector [213][220]. - Alexis Bjorlin, leading the DGX Cloud initiative, focuses on providing AI cloud services, marking NVIDIA's shift towards a service-oriented model [224][230].