丰田集团可能打算通过丰田工业私有化来解决收购问题。 （日本读卖新闻） ...

Core Insights - Toyota's sales for the fiscal year 2025 are projected to reach 10.111 million units, a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The company's operating revenue is expected to be 48.04 trillion yen (approximately 2.4 trillion RMB), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% from 45.1 trillion yen (approximately 2.3 trillion RMB) in the previous fiscal year [1] - Net profit is forecasted at 4.77 trillion yen (approximately 236.4 billion RMB), down 3.6% from 4.94 trillion yen (approximately 247 billion RMB) in the previous fiscal year [1] Revenue and Profit Comparison - Toyota's revenue for fiscal year 2025 is equivalent to the total revenue of seven major Chinese automakers combined, while its net profit is three times that of these companies [3] - The seven Chinese automakers include BYD, SAIC, GAC, Geely, Great Wall, BAIC, and Changan, with their respective revenues and net profits significantly lower than Toyota's [3] Future Outlook - For fiscal year 2026, Toyota's operating profit is expected to be 3.8 trillion yen (approximately 190 billion RMB), which is significantly lower than analysts' previous expectations of 4.7 trillion yen (approximately 235 billion RMB) [5] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 3.1 trillion yen (approximately 155 billion RMB), indicating a substantial decline of 34.9% compared to fiscal year 2025 [5] - The anticipated drop in net profit is primarily attributed to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the appreciation of the yen against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota is shifting its focus towards hybrid vehicles, discontinuing gasoline versions of the Corolla series in Japan, and will concentrate on hybrid models moving forward [1] Group 1: Product Strategy - Toyota announced the discontinuation of gasoline versions of the Corolla sedan in Japan, with three models including the "Wagon" and "Sport" set for partial improvements by May 19, focusing on hybrid sales [1] - The company is implementing a "group strategy" for the Corolla, unifying the three models to hybrid variants, leaving only the SUV "CROSS" and the sports car brand "GR Corolla" as gasoline options [1] - By the end of October, Toyota plans to cease production of the Corolla sedan "AXIO" and the wagon "Fielder," indicating a reduction in the number of models offered [1] Group 2: Market Trends - In recent years, Toyota has increasingly launched new models without gasoline options, as seen in the luxury "Crown" series introduced in 2022, which includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid (PHV), and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota is facing significant challenges due to Trump's trade policies, potentially becoming the biggest loser among global automakers as tariffs on imported vehicles and parts severely impact its profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Impact - General Motors (GM) expects a profit reduction of up to $5 billion, while Ford anticipates a loss of $1.5 billion. In contrast, Toyota has already experienced a $1.2 billion profit decline within two months [1]. - Toyota's operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2026 is projected to drop to ¥3.8 trillion ($26.1 billion), significantly below analysts' expectations of ¥4.7 trillion [1]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Despite over half of its sales in the U.S. being produced locally, Toyota still imports approximately 1.2 million critical parts and vehicles annually, drawing attention from the White House [2]. - The ongoing trade negotiations have not yielded results, and the timeline for a final agreement remains uncertain, with tariffs on most imported vehicles set at 25% and parts at the same rate [5]. - The Japanese government has indicated that a certain unnamed Japanese automaker is losing about $1 million per hour due to tariffs, aligning with Toyota's estimated monthly loss of $1.2 billion based on its operational hours [4]. Group 3: Production and Supply Chain - Toyota has committed to maintaining its production capacity in Japan, with plans to produce 3 million vehicles domestically by 2024, which will account for one-third of its global output [5][6]. - The company has invested $13.9 billion in a new battery plant in North Carolina while also emphasizing its commitment to its extensive domestic production base [5]. - Toyota's supply chain strategy, which includes importing vehicles like the RAV4 and Prius from Japan, makes it a target for U.S. tariffs, linking its fate closely to the outcomes of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations [6]. Group 4: Employment and Investment - Since 2016, Toyota's direct manufacturing employment in the U.S. has increased from 25,000 to 31,000, reflecting its commitment to local investment [6]. - The company has pledged $21 billion in investments in the U.S. since 2020, nearly double its commitments during Trump's first term [6].

Group 1 - The establishment of Hunan Yunchu Siweipu New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is a joint investment by Toyota (China), China Minmetals, Hunan Yunchu Recycling New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Minmetals New Energy Materials (Hunan) Co., Ltd., and Minghe Industry (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 100 million yuan [1][2] - The company aims to address the challenges of retired battery recycling and utilization, injecting new vitality into the power battery recycling market [1][2] - The partnership emphasizes sustainable development and corporate social responsibility, aligning with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality [1][2] Group 2 - The company will focus on building a Sino-Japanese technology cooperation model in the new energy sector, addressing key technical challenges in retired battery recycling [2] - The full industry chain advantage of China Minmetals will be leveraged to create a closed-loop industry for resource-materials-reuse-recycling [2] - The market for retired battery recycling in China is seen as having broad prospects and significant cooperation potential [2]

Group 1 - Toyota Motor Corporation expects a 21% decline in operating profit for the next fiscal year, attributing this to new tariffs on automobile imports imposed by the U.S. [1] - The company is reportedly planning to acquire its subsidiary, Toyota Industries, for over $40 billion, which could be one of the largest internal equity restructuring actions in Japan's history [1][2] - The complex cross-shareholding structure within the Toyota Group has raised concerns among investors regarding the independence of companies and capital flow [1][2] Group 2 - There is dissatisfaction among Toyota's independent shareholders, as evidenced by a majority vote against the re-election of Chairman Akio Toyoda, reflecting concerns over corporate governance [2] - If Toyota integrates Toyota Industries into the parent company, it would be seen as a significant improvement in corporate governance, but current rumors suggest a preference for a special purpose vehicle (SPV) structure that may reinforce family control [2] - The potential "century deal" could inspire other Japanese companies to follow suit, as approximately 30% of the Japanese market's value is tied up in cross-shareholding, significantly higher than in Western markets [2] Group 3 - Stock buybacks in Japan have tripled compared to last year, indicating a growing focus on capital efficiency among Japanese companies [3] - Despite challenges such as tariffs, global economic slowdown, and yen appreciation, there is potential for companies focused on the domestic market to benefit as Japan's long-standing deflation may be nearing an end [3] - The potential restructuring at Toyota may signal a shift in Japan towards reforming overcapitalized corporate groups, similar to the U.S. in 1982 [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy focused on small cap companies, highlighting the importance of identifying mispriced securities through understanding financial drivers and utilizing DCF model valuation [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is not confined to traditional categories such as value, dividend, or growth investing, but rather considers all prospects of a stock to assess risk-to-reward [1]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota's global strategy is undergoing a transformation as it aims to maintain its domestic supply chain while diversifying export destinations in response to U.S. tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Production and Export Strategy - Toyota's President, Akio Toyoda, emphasized the importance of maintaining a domestic supply chain while exporting, which is crucial for the manufacturing industry [3]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Toyota produced 3.23 million vehicles in Japan, with 60% (1.94 million) exported, including 540,000 to the U.S., accounting for 28% of total exports [4]. - The depreciation of the yen contributed 590 billion yen to Toyota's profits in fiscal year 2024, enhancing profitability through exports [4]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have disrupted Toyota's export-centric global strategy, potentially leading to a yearly profit reduction of approximately 1.7 trillion yen if no countermeasures are taken [5]. - Toyota is considering passing increased costs onto sales prices, but economic slowdown risks in the U.S. could negatively impact sales [5]. Group 3: Localization and Production Adjustments - Toyota faces the challenge of localizing production globally while maintaining its Japanese manufacturing base [6]. - The company is contemplating increasing local production in the U.S. and adjusting its production system in Japan to accommodate changes in export destinations [7]. - The tariffs affect not only Toyota but also approximately 60,000 domestic suppliers, which may struggle to adapt to the increased costs of imported components [7]. Group 4: Economic Significance of Exports - Toyota's exports contribute approximately 20 trillion yen in foreign exchange, which is vital for offsetting Japan's 24 trillion yen resource and energy import deficit [8]. - The automotive industry's ability to respond flexibly to tariff challenges will significantly influence the future of Japan's manufacturing sector [8].

Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor Corporation anticipates a significant decline in consolidated net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a 34.9% drop to 3.1 trillion yen, primarily due to U.S. tariffs and yen appreciation [1][3]. Financial Forecast - The company expects operating profit to decrease by 21% to 3.8 trillion yen, falling short of analysts' expectations of 4.7 trillion yen [1][3]. - For the fiscal year 2025, Toyota forecasts a revenue increase of only 1% to 48.5 trillion yen, which is significantly below market expectations [4]. Impact of Tariffs and Currency Fluctuations - The 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. government on imported vehicles and parts has already resulted in an operating profit loss of 180 billion yen (approximately $1.25 billion) for April and May 2025 [3]. - The appreciation of the yen against the dollar is expected to reduce profits by 745 billion yen, with each 1 yen increase in value leading to a 50 billion yen decrease in operating profit [3]. Sales and Electric Vehicle Transition - Despite challenges, Toyota projects a 1.2% increase in global sales for fiscal year 2025, reaching 10.4 million units, with electric vehicle sales expected to account for 49.8% of total sales [4]. - The company is accelerating its transition to electric vehicles, although sales growth is insufficient to offset profit declines [4]. Industry Context and Strategy - Toyota's situation reflects broader trade risks facing the global automotive industry, with the U.S. market representing 23% of its global sales [5]. - Unlike other Japanese automakers that have made aggressive adjustments, Toyota plans to optimize its supply chain and increase local production to mitigate tariff risks [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Following the financial forecast, Toyota's stock price fell by 2.3% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with analysts suggesting that profit expectations may be further downgraded if U.S. tariffs escalate or the yen continues to appreciate [6].

Group 1: Automotive Trade and Market Performance - In March 2025, the total import and export value of automotive goods reached $23.82 billion, a month-on-month increase of 32.1%, but a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1] - In April 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.791 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while cumulative retail sales for the year reached 6.918 million units, up 9% year-on-year [2] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in April 2025 were 922,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with a penetration rate of 52.3% [2] Group 2: Company Financials and Projections - Toyota expects a 34.9% year-on-year decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025 due to U.S. tariff policies, estimating a sales loss of up to ¥180 billion (approximately $1.25 billion) for April and May [3] - BMW Group reported Q1 2025 total revenue of €33.758 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, with a net profit of €2.173 billion, down 26.4% [6] - Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in Q1 2025, maintaining its annual production forecast of nearly 20,000 vehicles [5] Group 3: Corporate Developments and Innovations - Rivian announced a $120 million investment to strengthen its supply chain by building a supplier park near its factory in Normal, Illinois [7] - Geely Holding has implemented a rotating presidency system, with former COO Dai Qing as the first rotating president, aimed at enhancing management efficiency and fostering collaboration [10] - The new model of Zhiji Auto, the L6, has received 24,000 pre-sale orders, with a price range of ¥219,900 to ¥289,900 [11] Group 4: Regulatory and Safety Issues - Volvo is recalling over 413,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to potential issues with rearview camera images not displaying [4] - CATL announced that its Tianxing series batteries have passed the new national standard tests, becoming one of the first commercial power batteries to meet the GB 38031-2025 safety requirements [12] - SAIC-GM Wuling expects solid-state batteries to be available in vehicles by 2027, indicating progress in battery technology [13]