"台积电董事长要来大陆了！" 这则消息，近日在中国半导体圈引发广泛关注。 此前有知情人士透露，台积电董事长魏哲家"有望于12月4日现身南京，出席台积电开放创新平台（OIP）生态系统 论坛，并计划密集拜访多家本土芯片设计公司"。 若行程属实，这将是他自 2023年上海技术论坛后，两年来首次踏足大陆。 这场论坛作为台积电2025年OIP全球巡回的压轴场，此前已走过硅谷、东京、新竹、阿姆斯特丹四站。 尽管台积电官方已第一时间否认相关传闻，且公开信息显示，此次活动仅有台积电院士、设计暨技术平台副总经 理鲁立忠公开发言，并未出现总裁魏哲家的身影及相关媒体报道，但一个不争的事实是：从市场布局到供应链支 撑，台积电始终离不开大陆。 另一边，美国早已盯上半导体产业这块 "蛋糕"。 卢特尼克3日接受美国媒体采访时指出，台积电宣布将增加投资1000亿美元，总投资额达1605亿美元。他说："当 然，他们（台湾）也会训练美国劳工。最终目标是将供应链转移到美国，在美国生产半导体及药品，训练美国人 从事这些工作。让整个供应链都留在美国。这就是我们全部的目的。" 这家芯片巨头再次站上地缘政治的十字路口。 01 主动布局 2016年7月6日 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is considering converting a wafer fabrication plant in Arizona into an advanced packaging facility due to the significant demand from U.S. customers for CoWoS technology, which is crucial for enhancing AI performance [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Strategic Moves - TSMC plans to establish an advanced packaging factory in Arizona by the end of 2027 to address the supply bottleneck and meet the growing demand from AI GPU and ASIC manufacturers [1] - The company is accelerating the introduction of advanced packaging production lines in the U.S. and intends to repurpose an old chip manufacturing site for this purpose [1] - Previously, TSMC outsourced its packaging services in the U.S. to companies like Amkor, but this situation is changing as TSMC aims to bring these capabilities in-house [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Due to supply constraints in CoWoS packaging, U.S. customers are turning to competitors like Intel for advanced packaging solutions, with companies such as Microsoft, Qualcomm, Apple, and Tesla preparing to adopt Intel's EMIB and Foveros technologies [2] - The shift in demand towards Intel's packaging solutions has prompted TSMC to expedite its production plans in Arizona, highlighting the competitive pressures in the semiconductor industry [2] - The development of TSMC's Arizona project is crucial as it is expected to fulfill a significant portion of the U.S. chip industry's needs [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rapidus, a newly established semiconductor manufacturer in Japan, aims to challenge TSMC's dominance by producing advanced 2nm chips, a task likened to the Apollo moon landing in terms of difficulty and significance for Japan's technological future [1][2]. Group 1: Rapidus' Ambitions and Challenges - Rapidus was founded only three years ago and seeks to leap directly to the production of 2nm logic chips, a move that raises skepticism due to the complexity and cost of the technology involved [1]. - If successful, this endeavor could significantly alter the trajectory of Japan's technology industry, which currently relies heavily on TSMC for advanced chip manufacturing [1]. - The Japanese government is increasingly aware of the risks associated with relying on Taiwan for critical chip production, prompting a push to rebuild domestic manufacturing capabilities [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Talent Issues - Rapidus faces significant challenges, including an insufficient supply chain, as TSMC has built a comprehensive local supply chain over decades, while Japan still needs to integrate a complete ecosystem [2]. - There is a projected shortage of at least 40,000 semiconductor engineers in Japan over the next decade, highlighting a critical talent gap that needs to be addressed [2][3]. Group 3: Building Support and Future Prospects - Gaining public support is crucial for Rapidus, as TSMC is viewed as a national symbol in Taiwan, while Rapidus must establish a clear political and national security narrative to justify substantial public investment [3]. - The article emphasizes that Japan's ability to capitalize on the current technological wave will determine its future in the semiconductor industry, with the potential for significant consequences if it fails to act [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of the global semiconductor market, projected to reach $889 billion by 2026, driven by AI advancements and major players like NVIDIA and AMD [1] - IDC forecasts that by 2026, China's IC design market share will expand to approximately 45%, surpassing Taiwan's expected 40%, marking a shift in the competitive landscape [1] - The rapid expansion of China's IC design sector is attributed to domestic semiconductor policies and a strong internal market, with companies like Cambricon seeing increased AI chip shipments [1] Group 2 - Despite competitive pressures, Taiwan's critical position in the global semiconductor supply chain remains unchanged, with TSMC expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 22% to 26% by 2026 [2] - The global wafer foundry market is projected to grow by about 20% by 2026, with TSMC maintaining a dominant market share of approximately 73% [2] - Taiwan's packaging and testing industry is anticipated to experience a compound annual growth rate of about 9.1% from this year to 2029, driven by strong AI orders [2]

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry market is expected to grow by 20% next year, primarily driven by TSMC, which is projected to see revenue growth of 22% to 26%, while other companies will only see growth of 6% to 10%, indicating a trend of "the big get bigger" [1] - The global semiconductor market is anticipated to grow by 11% by 2026, reaching a size of $890 billion, with the potential to challenge the $1 trillion mark by 2028 [1] - The computing market is expected to grow by 18% by 2026, making it the largest growth area in the semiconductor sector, accounting for 46% of the overall semiconductor market [1] Group 1: Wafer Foundry Market - TSMC's market share is projected to reach 73.1% [1] - Other foundries are expected to grow at a rate of 6% to 10% [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Applications - The AI accelerator market is expected to surge by 78%, while application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) may see a growth of 113%, surpassing the 66% growth of graphics processing units (GPUs) [1] - The global foundry market, including traditional foundry and non-memory integrated device manufacturing (IDM), is expected to grow by approximately 14% by 2026 [2] Group 3: Mature Process and Capacity Utilization - After two years of adjustment, mature process capacity utilization is expected to stabilize above 80% by 2026, supported by strong demand for high-speed transmission chips and efficient power management chips [2] - Chinese manufacturers are expected to exceed 90% capacity utilization due to domestic substitution policies [2] Group 4: IC Design and Market Trends - China's IC design output is projected to surpass Taiwan's by 2025, becoming the leader in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - The Asia-Pacific IC design market is expected to grow by 11% by 2026, with China's market share anticipated to expand to 45% [2] Group 5: Semiconductor Packaging and Testing - The global packaging and testing market is expected to grow by 11% by 2026, with advanced packaging capacity (CoWoS) projected to increase by 72% [2] - TSMC's annual capacity is estimated to expand to 1.1 million units, facing strong demand from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2]

We came across a bullish thesis on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited on Nikhs’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TSM. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's share was trading at $287.68 as of December 1st. TSM’s trailing and forward P/E were 29.81 and 23.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Photo by JESHOOTS.COM on Unsplash TSMC has mastered the art of turning conservative guidance into a strategic advantage, consistently sandbagging ...

Without TSMC, the entire tech ecosystem would noticeably suffer.Semiconductors (chips) are the unsung heroes of the tech world, powering everything from smartphones to computers to TVs to car infotainment systems, and much more. Most of the time, these semiconductors are smaller than a grain of rice, yet they are to many electronics what a brain is to the human body.When it comes to bringing chips to life, no company does it better than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +0.51%) (also known as TSMC). T ...

Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock closed down 0.53% with a trading volume of $25.905 billion, with CFO Colette Kress highlighting that over 50% of the company's revenue comes from large cloud service providers (CSPs) [1][9] - Kress emphasized the ongoing need for computational resources among model developers, who must consider profitability and funding while ensuring sufficient computational capacity for future demands [1][9] Group 2: Tesla - Tesla's stock increased by 0.10% with a trading volume of $25.506 billion, as CEO Elon Musk confirmed that the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system now allows users to send text messages while driving under certain conditions [1][10] Group 3: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms' stock rose by 1.80% with a trading volume of $14.051 billion, following reports that the company plans to cut its metaverse department budget by up to 30%, which analysts view positively as a sign of financial discipline [2][10] - The potential layoffs may affect Meta's virtual reality division, indicating a focus on efficiency and growth [2][10] Group 4: Netflix and Warner Bros - Netflix's stock fell by 2.89% with a trading volume of $13.054 billion, as the company announced a deal to acquire Warner Bros, including its film and television studios, for a total enterprise value of approximately $82.7 billion [2][10][11] - The acquisition will be financed through cash and stock, with Warner Bros shares valued at $27.75 each, translating to an equity value of $72 billion [2][10] Group 5: Other Companies - Broadcom's stock increased by 2.42% with a trading volume of $9.063 billion, as Oppenheimer raised its target price from $400 to $435 [12] - Palantir's stock rose by 2.16% with a trading volume of $5.697 billion, marking a 7.9% increase over the week [13] - Micron's stock increased by 4.66% with a trading volume of $4.918 billion, announcing a complete exit from its Crucial consumer storage business by March 2026 [14] - TSMC's stock rose by 0.61% with a trading volume of $3.041 billion, with the U.S. Commerce Secretary stating that TSMC will increase investments in the U.S. [15]

My last article on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ( TSM ) was right after DeepSeek day. My perception was that the selloff was just creating a buying opportunity. Since then, the stock has reached new heights and has risen more than 40%. InEquity Research Analyst with a broad career in the financial market, covered both Brazilian and global stocks. As a value investor, my analysis is primarily fundamental, focusing on identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential. Feel free to rea ...

My last article on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ( TSM ) was right after DeepSeek day. My perception was that the selloff was just creating a buying opportunity. Since then, the stock has reached new heights and has risen more than 40%. InEquity Research Analyst with a broad career in the financial market, covered both Brazilian and global stocks. As a value investor, my analysis is primarily fundamental, focusing on identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential. Feel free to rea ...