Company Overview - Invictus Origin is a high-alpha investment company founded by Oliver Rodzianko in May 2025, aiming to deliver among the highest annual returns globally [1] - The company is developing innovative portfolio strategies, particularly through its flagship High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio, designed to outperform leading indices like the Nasdaq-100 [1] Investment Strategy - The Invictus Hydra Portfolio maintains approximately 20% in dynamic cash reserves, allowing for strategic value investing during significant market disruptions [1] - The investment process emphasizes fundamental valuation, long-term market cycles, and sector expertise in technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy [1] Leadership and Expertise - Oliver Rodzianko has extensive experience as a macro-focused investment analyst and has built a strong reputation through platforms like Seeking Alpha, TipRanks, and GuruFocus [1] - As CEO, Oliver leverages his expertise to establish a firm characterized by resilience, performance, and disciplined capital stewardship [1]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TodayTSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing$245.19 +7.63 (+3.21%) 52-Week Range$133.57▼$248.59Dividend Yield1.01%P/E Ratio31.52Price Target$236.25Add to WatchlistThere have been a few times in the stock market when investors received a clear signal, as they do right now, with a focus on the technology sector amid a race for artificial intelligence dominance and a broader market share for the United States. As trade tariffs begin to create more uncertainty and rivalry with ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding an additional layer of due diligence [1] Market Focus - The primary focus is on stocks in the US market, although there is openness to owning shares in less stable economies, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - The investor's approach is characterized by a willingness to engage in high-risk, illiquid options, highlighting a unique investment philosophy [1]

You and I have talked about infrastructure so much, but I almost consider names like TSMC and ASML as being kind of soft data sets rather than kind of hard data sets. ASML gave us one signal and then TSMC gave us another. As somebody that looks at their exposure to this air supply chain.What did you make of it. Well, I think you really have to go up to kind of a higher order of capital expenditures, which is impacting so many different semiconductor stocks. If you look at the top four builders of infrastruc ...

Check out Taiwan semi shares up 4% session highs after raising their 2025 revenue forecast. The signal big tech is still pouring money into chips and data centers. Dear Jabosa breaks down why and dearra yesterday.Okay, riddle me this. ASML makes the tools that make advanced semiconductors that TSMC fab fabricates or what what they they have problems. The stocks are down.They maybe it's tariffs, maybe it's not. Then today, TSMC everything is fine. How can both of these things be true at the same time.Right. ...

美国上涨 【导读】美股继续上涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 多家科技巨头股价创新高 7月17日晚间，美股上涨，受到最新经济数据和一系列企业财报的提振。 标普500指数上涨0.45%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨近200点，涨幅为0.4%，科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.7%。 本周公布的季度财报普遍好于华尔街预期，增强了投资者信心。据FactSet数据显示，截至目前已有约50家标普500指数成份公司公布财报，其中88%的业 绩超过分析师预期。 周四公布的关键经济数据反映出美国经济的稳健。美国劳工部表示，截至7月12日当周的首次申领失业救济人数为22.1万人，较前一周减少7000人，表明 就业市场依然稳健。 另据美国人口普查局的最新数据，6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，远高于道琼斯预期的0.2%，缓解了市场对消费者支出下滑的担忧。 eToro美国投资分析师Bret Kenwell表示："这份令人安心的零售销售报告发布得恰逢其时，正值财报季启动之际。如果企业盈利比预期更为乐观，且管理 层继续传递有关消费者支出稳定的积极信号，那么即便市场已接近历史高位、部分投资者认为估值偏高，股市仍可 ...

Company Overview & Market Position - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is a leading company in its field [1] - The company's market capitalization is $1.2 trillion [1] - TSM's market cap is only behind Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Facebook, and Berkshire Hathaway [2] - The company contributes significantly to technological advancements [2] Momentum & Growth - Momentum is a factor that can affect stock performance, which is why it's included in the GF Score [3] - TSM has good momentum, with its momentum increasing over the last three to six months [3] - The company still exhibits good growth [3] GF Score - Momentum score is used for JF score J score rank calculation with a relatively small weighting factor [3] - Value investors don't pay much attention to momentum [3] - Momentum score should not prevent investment if valuation and quality are good [3]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is experiencing strong interest from its leading U.S. customers and is accelerating its volume production schedule by several quarters [1][2] - TSMC has committed to investing a total of $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. [2] - The company reported $31.7 billion in revenue for the period, with a nearly 61% year-over-year increase in profit, setting a record high and surpassing estimates [3] Company Developments - TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, emphasized the company's critical role in supporting customer success and maintaining partnerships within the U.S. semiconductor industry [2] - The company has not observed any changes in customer behavior for the second half of 2025, despite potential uncertainties related to tariff policies [4] Market Context - U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a 32% reciprocal tariff on Taiwan, which could impact the semiconductor sector, although trade talks are ongoing [3] - There are concerns regarding the potential impact of tariff policies on consumer-related and price-sensitive market segments [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for future growth [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%. The gross margin was 58.6%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Net profit reached $12.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.2% [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to approximately 30%, driven primarily by demand for advanced processes. In Q2 2025, revenue from N3, N5, and N7 processes accounted for 24%, 36%, and 14% of total wafer revenue, respectively, totaling 74% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI chips, with projections for net profits of $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of $30.07 billion, with a gross margin of 58.6% and net profit of $12.8 billion [2]. Operational Analysis - The decline in gross margin is attributed to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), which impacts revenue when converted from USD. A 1% appreciation in TWD results in a 1% revenue loss and a 40 basis points loss in gross margin. In Q2 2025, TWD appreciated by 4.4%, leading to a 180 basis points decline in gross margin, with further expected appreciation causing an additional 260 basis points loss [3]. - The company anticipates the first-generation N2 process to enter mass production in H2 2025, with subsequent processes expected in 2026 and 2028 [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in the wafer foundry industry, with a competitive edge in advanced processes, expected to benefit from the rise in AI chip demand. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion, respectively [4].

Group 1 - President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, indicating he is "unlikely" to fire Chairman Powell but does not rule out any options [1] - Following Trump's threats to fire Powell, the dollar rebounded successfully, and technology stocks generally rose [2] - The U.S. stock market opened mixed, with the Dow down 0.11%, the S&P 500 up 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [3] Group 2 - TSMC's stock rose over 3% as its Q2 net profit surged 61% above expectations, with a projected sales growth of approximately 30% for the year [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw an increase, currently up 1.0% at 7664.8 points [5] Group 3 - Trump expressed intentions to impose tariffs on over 150 minor trade partners, potentially setting rates between 10% to 15% [6] - The U.S. is still negotiating tariffs with major trade partners including the EU, Japan, Canada, and Mexico [7]