Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025, citing strong performance in Q2 2023 and expected government support measures [1] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2023, indicating robust economic performance [1] - The growth was supported by improved retail sales due to "trade-in" subsidies and steady export growth [1] Government Policy Expectations - The government is expected to implement the remaining parts of the annual broad fiscal plan in the second half of the year, including planned trade-in subsidies [1] - A reduction in policy interest rates by 20 to 30 basis points is anticipated in the second half of the year, along with additional measures to promote real estate inventory reduction [1] Future Projections - Additional policy support measures may depend on economic data, with new fiscal policies potentially being introduced by the end of Q3 or in Q4 [1] - Overall, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward due to strong export resilience, low base effects from trade-in subsidy policies, early issuance of government bonds, and planned policy support measures [1] Inflation and Currency Outlook - CPI pressure is expected to rise slightly in the second half of the year, while the RMB may strengthen in the short term [1] - External uncertainties could lead to the RMB/USD exchange rate reaching 7.1 to 7.2 by the end of 2025 [1]

Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

Group 1: Chinese AI and Technology Sector - The Chinese AI sector is experiencing strong growth, and UBS remains optimistic about the performance of Chinese tech stocks in the second half of the year [1] - The ongoing tariff war presents an uncertain outlook, leading to a cautious stance from China regarding large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, although there is still room for interest rate reductions [1] - Over-competition is identified as a major pain point for investors in China, with many companies engaging in irrational price wars, resulting in Chinese tech companies being valued at only half of their U.S. counterparts [1] Group 2: Government Policies and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is committed to combating "involution" and has signaled strong policy intentions to regulate low-price disorderly competition, encouraging companies to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [1] - The ultimate winners in this competitive landscape are expected to possess global competitiveness [1] Group 3: Diversification Trends in Investment - There is a noticeable trend among clients shifting from U.S. assets to more diversified investments, with strong growth observed in Asian and European assets [2] - The volatility in the U.S. market serves as a reminder of the importance of diversification during periods of high uncertainty [2] - UBS plans to maintain U.S. asset allocation between 50% to 66%, with emerging markets in Asia, led by China, being a key focus for diversification [2] Group 4: Currency Outlook - Progress in trade negotiations and improved capital flows support the potential for further appreciation of the Renminbi, with expectations for the exchange rate to reach 1 USD to 7 CNY by mid-next year [2]

人事变动 - UBS Group 日本全球市场联席主管 Naohiro Kuroda 离职 [1] 业务影响 - 此次离职发生在结构性投资业务团队扩张几个月后 [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group stated that the deal pipeline remains very strong and healthy [1] - The IPO pipeline is in place, indicating readiness for market activity [1] - The market and companies are currently in a wait-and-see mode, suggesting a cautious approach to new investments [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group expressed support for the simplification of regulatory measures in the United States [1] - In contrast, UBS is moving in the opposite direction regarding regulations in Switzerland [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of UBS Group emphasized that uncertainty is worse than any specific issue, such as tariffs [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader concern in the financial industry regarding the impact of uncertainty on market stability and investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group highlighted significant opportunities in the U.S. wealth management sector [1]

金十数据7月9日讯，瑞银策略师在一份报告中表示，该行已在10年期美债收益率达到4.40%时平仓了原 有的做多头寸，但预计未来收益率进一步上升后将重新入场。瑞银最初于5月底建立该头寸，当时10年 期美债收益率为4.51%。随后，在上周非农就业数据发布前，该行将止损位收窄至4.40%。报告指出： 我们认为未来可能会出现更合适的时机再次做多美债久期，但市场需要更清楚地理解美国就业市场的走 势、"大而美"法案的影响，以及在没有美元走强的情况下更高关税对债市的冲击。 美国10年国债收益率 瑞银：已平仓美债多头头寸，静待更高收益率再入场 ...

Group 1 - Nearly half of the surveyed central banks believe that the United States may restructure its federal debt [1] - Over 70% of the surveyed central banks view the tariff policies of the Trump administration as the biggest risk [1] - Almost all surveyed central banks are pursuing diversification of reserve assets, with a strong preference for gold [1] Group 2 - 67% of the surveyed central banks believe that gold will be the best-performing asset from now until around 2029, a significant increase from 21% in the 2024 survey [1]