Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest report addresses ten key global economic concerns, highlighting the complex challenges facing the global economy, including tariff impacts and dollar depreciation [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Growth - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. are equivalent to a 1.5% GDP tax on importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion [2][3]. - UBS's global growth tracking shows a mere 1.3% annualized growth rate, placing it in the 8th percentile historically [5]. - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data post-tariff announcements, with hard data showing a 3.6% annualized growth while soft data reflects only 1.3% [2]. Group 2: Dollar Depreciation - UBS holds a cyclical bearish view on the dollar but does not see it as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [10]. - The dollar's depreciation is driven by increased demand for hedging against dollar declines, a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy, and improving growth trends in other regions [10]. - Foreign investors hold $31.3 trillion in U.S. long-term securities, with a potential $1.25 trillion in dollar sell-off if hedging ratios increase by 5% [10]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the July CPI data, with a lag of 2-3 months observed in previous tariff implementations [14][13]. - The 10% general tariff is anticipated to have the most inflationary effect, similar to past experiences [14]. Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Outlook - The majority of changes in the U.S. budget deficit stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about long-term supply of U.S. Treasuries [23][24]. - UBS estimates that the 10-year Treasury yield's bottom should be around 2.75% even in tight conditions [26]. Group 5: Global Central Bank Responses - The actual impact of tariff shocks has differed significantly from expectations, leading to a shift in central bank policies [46]. - Since April 2, developed market one-year interest rates have decreased by an average of 30 basis points, while emerging markets have seen a decline of about 50 basis points [46]. Group 6: China's Economic Stimulus - China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and announced moderate policy stimulus measures, with fiscal deficits expected to expand to 1.5-2% of GDP [51]. - UBS anticipates further fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding 0.5% of GDP, with additional interest rate cuts expected [55][56].

Group 1 - UBS's report addresses ten challenging questions from investors regarding global economic conditions and strategic outlook [1] - The report highlights that current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, with global growth tracking at a mere 1.3% year-on-year, placing it in the 8th lowest historical percentile [1] - The report indicates that the recent dollar sell-off is not indicative of a long-term depreciation trend, as it lacks key elements seen in previous cycles, such as improved economic growth in other regions [2] Group 2 - The initial impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation data is expected to manifest in the July CPI report, with significant effects potentially delayed by one to two months [3] - There is a notable discrepancy between reported trade data and container shipping data, suggesting that foreign exporters are not significantly lowering prices to absorb tariff costs [4] - The U.S. budget deficit is primarily influenced by the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about supply issues persisting, but historical demand fluctuations are expected to absorb any supply increases [5] Group 3 - Evidence suggests a reduction in foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets, with April data indicating asset sell-offs, although the continuation of this trend remains uncertain [6] - The U.S. stock market typically outperforms during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is largely driven by the U.S. economy, with European markets showing unexpected resilience [7] - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to provide a 45 basis point boost to economic growth by 2026, despite initially increasing the deficit [9] Group 4 - Central banks globally are adjusting their policies in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of 1-3 rate cuts, while the Fed faces a dilemma balancing inflation and employment concerns [10] - China has implemented fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 1.5-2% of GDP, with further monetary easing anticipated, including a potential 20-30 basis point rate cut [11]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]

Group 1 - Nearly half of central banks surveyed believe the U.S. may restructure its federal debt [1] - The survey conducted by UBS covered nearly 40 central banks and revealed that two-thirds are concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] - Concerns about the quality of U.S. economic data and the weakening of the rule of law were also highlighted by nearly half of the central banks [3] Group 2 - The primary risk identified by 74% of central banks is the trade and international alliance policies of the Trump administration [5] - There is an increasing pessimism regarding the global economic outlook, with many central banks now expecting stagflation [5] - Almost all surveyed central banks are pursuing diversification of reserve assets, with a strong preference for gold [7] Group 3 - 67% of central banks believe gold will be the best-performing asset from now until around 2029, a significant increase from 21% in the previous year's survey [7] - No central bank plans to reduce its gold holdings in the next 12 months, and over one-third have increased their gold positions in the past year [7] - While 13% of central banks think Bitcoin could be the best-performing asset in the next five years, only one is considering investing in it [7]

Group 1 - A survey commissioned by UBS found that nearly half of the central bank reserve managers believe a U.S. debt restructuring is a possible scenario [1] - Two-thirds of respondents expressed concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and nearly half were uneasy about the quality of U.S. economic data and the weakening of the rule of law [1] - Despite concerns, 80% of respondents predict that the dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, although there is a growing drive for reserve diversification [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical issues remain a primary concern for central banks, but the potential impact of the Trump administration's trade and international alliance policies has become the top risk, with 74% of respondents mentioning it [2] - There is a significant increase in pessimism regarding the global economic outlook, with an equal number of respondents now expecting "stagflation" as the most likely outcome [2] - Nearly all reserve managers maintain a belief in diversification, with 67% considering gold to be the best-performing asset class until the end of the decade, a significant drop from 21% in the previous year's survey [2] Group 3 - Only one participant indicated that their central bank is considering investing in Bitcoin, although 13% believe Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset over the next five years [3]

Group 1 - The current bull market in the US stock market has shown a historically rare long cycle characteristic, having lasted 33 months since its inception on October 12, 2022, surpassing the average long-term bull market lifespan of 1105 days [1] - The S&P 500 has experienced a cumulative increase of 69%, driven by dual forces of technological revolution and geopolitical restructuring, although it is still below the typical bull market average gain of 156% [1] - UBS emphasizes two core logical frameworks: the rise in productivity driven by AI technology, which mirrors the path of the internet revolution in the 1990s, and the restructuring of global security dynamics, with military spending projected to grow by 12% in 2024, the highest rate since the end of the Cold War [1] Group 2 - The current market valuation structure shows significant differentiation, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio at 21.5 times, lower than the 28 times during the 2000 internet bubble, largely due to the 33% weight of tech giants [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a high benchmark interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% in 2023, the S&P 500 index achieved a 24% annual increase, indicating that rising interest rates have not suppressed tech stock valuation expansion [3] - The NDR sentiment indicator shows that the current market correction cycle is at a historical low, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs for 512 consecutive trading days without triggering bear market thresholds, surpassing the performance seen in the late 1990s bull market [3]

21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 实习生 王艺之 香港报道 瑞银集团最新发布的报告指出，人形机器人正从科幻走向现实，预计到2050年，全球人形机器人市场规 模有望达到1.4万亿至1.7万亿美元。 7月7日，瑞银中国机械行业分析师王斐丽在媒体分享会上表示，鉴于技术与监管方面的影响，五年内人 形机器人市场或不会出现"电动汽车时刻"，即技术瓶颈得以解决并实现销量大幅增长。但人形机器人长 期发展前景广阔，未来25年复合增长率将超过40%。 报告强调，在行业发展初期，上游关键零部件供应商将率先受益，而整机厂商由于研发上的大量投入， 面临短期压力。 人形机器人将率先在工业场景落地 王斐丽介绍，在基准假设下，到2050年，全球人形机器人年度需求将提升至8600万台，全球保有量将突 破3亿台。全球人形机器人领域的投资活动呈现强劲势头。数据显示，2022年至2024年，相关投资项目 数量从33个增至75个，投资金额也从4.77亿美元跃升至18.99亿美元。其中，中国和美国是该领域投资总 额最大的两个国家。 对于人形机器人的商业化落地，报告认为工业场景和服务业场景将率先实现落地，最后才会进入家庭场 景。王斐丽解释说，工业场景对机器人 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Research anticipates that the European Central Bank will lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in July [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The expected reduction in the policy interest rate is projected to be 25 basis points [1]

Group 1: OPEC+ Production and Oil Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ member countries to increase oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, fully canceling the voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent crude oil price forecast at $59 per barrel for Q4 2025, citing supply shortfalls and reduced idle capacity as key factors [2] - UBS analysts indicate that OPEC+'s unexpected production increase reinforces expectations for further declines in oil prices, predicting Brent crude could drop to $60 per barrel by year-end [8] Group 2: Currency and Trade Policy Implications - UBS analysts warn that if the U.S. reinstates higher tariffs without a trade agreement, the dollar may weaken against major currencies [3] - Targeted tariffs by the U.S. could support the dollar in the short term, as they may strengthen the dollar against specific countries while weakening it against broader tariffs [4] - The impact of further tariff delays on the dollar remains uncertain, with potential for initial support if high tariffs are avoided [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Deutsche Bank analysts note that gold prices are primarily supported by the instability of U.S. policies, which erodes investor confidence in U.S. assets [6] - Citic Securities reports that the current market environment resembles late 2014, with signs of recovery in investor sentiment and potential catalysts for market movement [11] - Citic Securities highlights that the "Big and Beautiful" Act may negatively impact U.S. healthcare and renewable energy sectors while benefiting technology and manufacturing industries [12]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is shifting towards macroeconomic data, particularly the actual evolution of economic growth and inflation, despite recent policy uncertainties [1] - UBS expects a slowdown in US economic growth but does not foresee a recession, with consumer spending likely to moderate due to inflationary pressures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation data is anticipated to become evident in the coming months, with economic growth expected to weaken further by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, with a forecast of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts [1] - The assumption is that the effective tariff rate will stabilize at the current level of 15%, which is not expected to trigger an economic recession [1] Group 3 - As policy outlook becomes clearer, UBS suggests that market volatility will gradually return to normal, advising investors to prepare for opportunities in 2026 [2] - Investment strategies include continuing to allocate to gold for political risk hedging, investing in quality fixed-income products, and positioning for long-term equity investments [3] Group 4 - UBS has upgraded the financial sector to an "attractive" rating due to benefits from regulatory easing and capital returns post-stress tests [3] - The firm maintains an "attractive" rating for communication services, healthcare, utilities, and information technology, citing strong growth drivers and defensive attributes [3]