交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 今日焦点 | 北方华创 | | 002371 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 国产半导体设备龙头：成长性与韧性兼备，首 | | 评级: 买入 | | 予买入 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 443.30 | 目标价: 人民币 530.00 | 潜在涨幅: +19.6% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 半导体行业国产替代最核心的环节：正如之前主题报告中所提到的，我 们看好国产半导体设备行业前景，并关注龙头公司北方华创。 下游需求持续旺盛，国产设备市占率提升：中国内地半导体设备市场在 全球市场的份额从 2015 年的 13%升至 2024 年的 42%。在这个过程中， 北方华创业绩在上行周期中表现出高成长性，在下行周期中韧性较强。 与市场一致预测同比下降不同，我们预测中国内地 2025 年市场将保持增 长，达 500 亿美元。进口设备占比呈下降趋势，我们估算从 2015 年的 91.8%到 2024 年的 67.6%。我们预测北方华创 2025 年在内地半导体设备 市场 ...

7月1日，国内造车新势力相继披露了今年6月及上半年的销量数据。零跑、鸿蒙智行、理想上半年销量均突破20万辆，其中零跑以22.2万辆同比激增155.7% 的成绩首度登顶半年销量榜。 2025年上半年收官，新造车企业大多交出了一份同比增长的成绩单。 理想上半年销量同步仅增7.8%，增速明显放缓，其纯电车型布局滞后的问题逐步显现；广汽埃安销量同比下滑14.2%至15.23万辆，跌出头部阵营；蔚来虽同 比增长30.6%至11.42万辆，但被零跑、小鹏、小米超越，滑落至第七位。 从全年销量目标完成率来看，新造车企业进度差距悬殊。小鹏汽车以19.72万辆的上半年销量，完成全年38万辆目标的51.9%，成为唯一进度过半的车企。而 超半数车企目标完成率不足三成，下半年竞争压力陡增。 从6月份单月数据来看，鸿蒙智行以销售5.27万辆、同比增长14.3%的成绩登顶，但问界系列占比超80%的结构隐忧仍在；零跑6月销量依旧保持增势，同比 增长138%至4.8万辆，领先于同期理想的3.63万辆销量，后者销量同比下滑了24%。 | 车企 | 销量(单位:万辆) | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 鸿蒙智行 | 5. ...

01 事件概述 2025 年6 月重点新能源车企交付量发布，据各公司披露数据： 零跑48,006辆，同比+138.6%，环比+6.5%； 问界44,685辆，同比+4.5%，环比+22.9%； 理想36,279辆，同比-24.1%，环比-11.2% 小鹏34,611辆，同比+224.4%，环比+3.2%； 埃安27,848辆，同比-20.5%，环比+4.0%； 蔚来24,925辆，同比+17.5%，环比+7.3%； 极氪16,702辆，同比-16.9%，环比-11.7%； 小米超25,000辆。 问界：据公司披露，6月交付44,685辆，同比+4.5%，环比+22.9%，主要车型6月销量中，M8交付2.1万辆，占公司当月交付量47.4%，在40万元级市场表现亮眼，M9 2025款6月交付1.4辆，占公司当月交付量30.7%，居50万元级市场销量冠军。 理想： 据公司披露，6月交付36,279辆，同比-24.1%，环比-11.2%，我们判断，由于电商季优惠促销和补贴政策利好中低端市场，高端市场整体增速放缓，公司销量短期 承压。公司主要车型5月销量中，L6交付1.9万辆，占公司当月交付量46.0%；L7交付1.0 ...

Group 1 - Xiaopeng plans to launch two range-extended large vehicles, G9 and X9, in Q4 of this year, marking its first entry into the market beyond pure electric vehicles [1] - Following these two models, Xiaopeng will expand its range-extended technology to mid-range and low-end markets, with upcoming models like G7 and the MONA series also featuring range-extended versions [2][5] - The MONA series currently has only one model, the M03, which has contributed over 40% of Xiaopeng's sales in the first half of the year, and more models are expected to be released in this series [3][4] Group 2 - Xiaopeng is simultaneously advancing range-extended technology across high, mid, and low-end markets, with a focus on differentiating its range-extended vehicles through features like greater electric range and quieter engines [7] - The company aims to tap into the cost-sensitive market represented by the MONA series, which is crucial for maintaining competitive pricing and controlling costs [10][11] - Xiaopeng's sales strategy has shifted towards the value-for-money market, with the M03 priced between 119,800 and 139,800 yuan, directly competing with BYD's popular models [8][10] Group 3 - In the first half of this year, Xiaopeng delivered 197,000 vehicles, surpassing its total deliveries from the previous year, indicating a significant growth trend [10] - The company aims to achieve profitability in Q4 and has set a target of doubling its annual sales, aiming for approximately 400,000 vehicles [11] - Competitors like Leap Motor and BYD are also focusing on the range-extended vehicle segment, which is becoming increasingly crowded, posing challenges for Xiaopeng [11]

②科技股集体上涨，特斯拉涨超4%，甲骨文涨超5%，英伟达、苹果涨超2%； ③热门中概股涨跌互现，老虎证券涨超1%，小鹏汽车涨0.6%，新东方跌超3%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩跌 超2%； 【大河财立方消息】①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.02%，标普500指数涨0.47%，再创历史新 高，纳指涨0.94%； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.14%报96.78，离岸人民币对美元跌4个基点报7.1617； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锌涨1.44%报2753.00美元/吨，LME期铅涨1.25%报2063.50美元/吨， LME期镍涨0.88%报15340.00美元/吨，LME期铜涨0.77%报10010.00美元/吨，LME期铝涨0.62%报 2614.50美元/吨，LME期锡跌0.23%报33585.00美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.64个基点报3.781%，3年期美债收益率涨3.08个基点报 3.762%，5年期美债收益率涨3.81个基点报3.863%，10年期美债收益率涨4.50个基点报4.279%，30年期 美债收益率涨4.66个基点报4.804%； ⑩伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LM ...

美东时间周三，三大指数仅道指微跌， 标普500指数和纳指双双刷新历史收盘新高。 （三大指数分钟线图，来源：TradingView） 分析师指出，非农数据也低于预期，美联储本月下旬的议息会议上或将讨论降息可能。 与此同时，市场也关注特朗普提出的税收与支出法案。该法案周二在参议院以微弱优势通过， 目前已送回众议院，但部分共和党议员仍持反对意见。 甲骨文大涨5%，消息称该公司与OpenAI扩大合作，将在美国建立更多数据中心。 特斯拉涨5%，该公司Q2交付数据高于市场的悲观预测区间。 耐克涨4%，该公司在越南有代工厂。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.02%，报44,484.42点；标普500指数涨0.47%，报6,227.42点； 纳斯达克指数涨0.94%，报20,393.13点。 美国总统特朗普周三在其自创社交媒体平台Truth Social发文称，美国与越南达成贸易协议， 将对从越南进口的商品征收20%的关税。 特朗普还称，对于所谓"转口贸易"（即原产于其他国家、经越南转运的商品），越南商品将面 临更高的40%关税。 美越达成贸易协议在一定程度上提振了市场情绪 ，但早些时候公布的ADP就业报告显示，美 国私营部门在6 ...

7月2日，汽车股集体走强，多家车企股票开盘上涨。此前，国内车企交出"年中考"成绩单，一众车企销 量走高的同时，新造车板块座次再度生变。其中，"黑马"零跑汽车夺得销冠，"顶流"小米手握大把订 单，愁的只是产能；传统车企的"创二代"进入放量期，但有人月销近3万辆，有人则只能"秀"增速。 多年来，"汽车行业还需不需要新品牌"的争论，对于"新造车"并不适用。手握技术与流量密码的"新造 车"企业，不仅让车市更"卷"，更进一步拉高交付量门槛，国内新造车玩家间不断上演反转与洗牌戏 码。 "新人"闯入前六排行榜 今年上半年车市销量榜冠军再度易主，零跑汽车以22.17万辆的交付量从理想汽车手中夺取销冠。零跑 汽车更在公布销量数据时表示"连续四个月位居新势力领先位置"。从上半年整体数据看，尽管位居第二 位的理想汽车与零跑汽车的销量差距并不大，但今年6月零跑汽车销量近5万辆，理想汽车交付新车仅 3.63万辆。理想汽车方面直言："今年是理想汽车充满机遇和挑战的一年。" 面对市场激烈的竞争环境，零跑汽车开始加速投放新品。6月18日，零跑2026款C16焕新上市；6月29日 全新B01启动预售。同时，零跑汽车也在进一步提速网络布局。零跑 ...

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Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [27]. Core Insights - The NEV sector in China is experiencing intense competition, with performance among major manufacturers becoming increasingly divergent. The focus is expected to shift from price wars to quality and service upgrades as regulatory scrutiny tightens [8][16]. - BYD's June sales reached 383,000 units, a 12% year-on-year increase, while Geely sold 236,000 units, up 42% year-on-year. Both companies are adjusting their annual targets upwards due to strong first-half performance [9][10]. - Leapmotor achieved record sales of 48,000 units in June, marking a 139% year-on-year increase, while Li Auto and Xiaomi saw month-on-month declines in sales [11][14]. - NIO's wholesale sales were 25,000 units in June, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, but the company faces challenges from competitors in the same price segment [15][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - BYD's first-half sales totaled 2.146 million units, achieving 39% of its annual target, while Geely's first-half sales reached 1.409 million units, with 47% of its revised target already met [9][10]. - Leapmotor's cumulative deliveries for the first half were 222,000 units, and it is expected to maintain strong sales momentum with new product launches [11]. - Li Auto's June deliveries were 36,000 units, down 24% year-on-year, while XPeng delivered 35,000 units, marking a 224% year-on-year increase [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in competition dynamics, with companies focusing on service upgrades and technological advancements rather than aggressive pricing strategies due to regulatory pressures [8][16]. - The performance of various brands indicates a competitive landscape where established players like BYD and Geely are facing challenges from emerging brands like Leapmotor and NIO [15][16]. Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in sales as new models are launched and companies adapt to stricter regulations. Brands that can offer better value and brand equity are likely to outperform [16].

进入7月份，多家新势力车企陆续在其官方社交平台发布6月份汽车销售数据。从发布的数据来看，新能 源汽车市场再次展现出蓬勃发展的活力与激烈的竞争态势。 在众多新能源汽车品牌中，鸿蒙智行凭借出色的表现拔得头筹，浙江零跑科技股份有限公司（以下简 称"零跑汽车"）、北京车和家信息技术有限公司（以下简称"理想汽车"）和小鹏汽车有限公司（以下简 称"小鹏汽车"）也成绩斐然。各车企凭借自身独特的产品优势和市场策略，在销量上呈现出不同的发展 轨迹。 对于6月份汽车市场表现，中国汽车流通协会相关负责人对《证券日报》记者表示，6月份作为年中考核 节点，厂商及经销商借助端午假期、"618"等活动积极促销冲量。另外高考结束以及暑期自驾游等家庭 购车需求增长，有利于6月份市场销量的提升。新车上市及炎热多雨天气影响，导致部分消费者观望情 绪显现。综合多重因素，6月份乘用车销量略高于预期，预计终端销量200万辆左右。 鸿蒙智行跃居榜首 零跑理想小鹏紧随其后 鸿蒙智行迎来交付量爆发期，鸿蒙智行6月份全系交付5.27万辆，单日交付量3651辆，分别刷新鸿蒙智 行单月、单日销量历史新高，成为新势力汽车月度销量冠军，持续领跑成交均价榜单。 零跑汽车 ...