Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile (175 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.1% from the current closing price of HKD 16.78 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency within Geely. This move aims to eliminate redundant investments, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness [6]. - Geely's financial projections show significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for Geely to adjust its high-end brand strategy due to declining sales in this segment, particularly for Zeekr's core models [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: RMB 179.20 billion in 2023, RMB 240.19 billion in 2024, and RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.8% from 2023 to 2025 [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 11.90 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 0.53 in 2023 to RMB 1.18 in 2025 [5][10]. - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's market capitalization is approximately HKD 169.11 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [4]. - The report notes that Zeekr's current valuation is significantly lower than its competitors, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.3x for 2025, compared to other new entrants like Xpeng and Li Auto [6]. - The anticipated privatization of Zeekr is viewed as a strategic move to consolidate Geely's brand positioning and enhance market competitiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile is proposing to privatize Zeekr, which has been listed in the US for less than a year, by offering $2.566 per share, representing a premium of approximately 13.6% over the last trading price [2][3] Group 1: Privatization Proposal - Geely submitted a non-binding proposal to privatize Zeekr, suggesting a purchase price of $2.566 per share or $25.66 per American Depositary Share [2] - The proposed price represents a 13.6% premium over the last trading day’s closing price and a 20% premium over the volume-weighted average price over the last 30 trading days [2] - Geely currently holds approximately 65.7% of Zeekr's issued share capital [2] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Zeekr's stock price surged by 11.51% on May 7, closing at $25.19 per share, nearing Geely's proposed purchase price [2] - The trading volume for Zeekr's stock increased significantly, with a transaction value of $125 million, more than ten times the previous day's volume [2] Group 3: Strategic Integration - Geely aims to create a unified listing platform to integrate Zeekr's assets and resources, enhancing the competitiveness of its passenger vehicle business [3] - This move aligns with Geely's strategic shift from expansion to focus, as announced in the "Taizhou Declaration" on September 1, 2024 [3] Group 4: Zeekr's Performance - Zeekr, which was spun off from Lynk & Co, achieved a rapid IPO in the US market, listing on May 10, 2024 [3] - In the first four months of this year, Zeekr's total sales reached 155,300 units, with Lynk & Co contributing 100,200 units, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth, while Zeekr's brand sales grew by only 12% [3] - Zeekr's 2025 sales target is set at 710,000 units, with current completion rates at 21.87% overall, 25.64% for Lynk & Co, and 17.22% for Zeekr [4] Group 5: Financial Performance - Zeekr reported a revenue of 75.913 billion yuan for 2024, a 46.9% increase year-on-year, but incurred a net loss of 5.791 billion yuan, although the loss has narrowed compared to the previous year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.1% from the current price of HKD 16.78 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to further enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency within Geely. This move is seen as beneficial for Geely's competitive positioning in the market [6]. - Geely's financial projections show significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for Geely to adjust its high-end brand strategy due to declining sales in this segment, particularly for Zeekr's models [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: RMB 179.20 billion in 2023, RMB 240.19 billion in 2024, and RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, with corresponding growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, and 27.8% respectively [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 5.31 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 16.63 billion in 2024, but expected to decline to RMB 11.90 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 28.5% [5][10]. - The report indicates a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.18 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's market capitalization is approximately HKD 169.11 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [4]. - The report notes that Zeekr's current valuation is low, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.3x for 2025, significantly lower than competitors like Xpeng and Li Auto [6]. - The report suggests that the privatization of Zeekr will allow Geely to consolidate its assets and resources, potentially lowering costs and improving overall competitiveness [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - Geely Automobile plans to acquire all shares of Zeekr Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., which it currently holds approximately 65.7% of, aiming for a complete merger [4] - The privatization of Zeekr is intended to promote deep integration of internal resources and enhance operational efficiency, thereby improving the company's core competitiveness and long-term value [7] - The merger is expected to create a unified platform that enhances the competitive edge of the group's passenger vehicle segment and allows for better strategic positioning in response to global market fluctuations [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2023A: 179,204 million CNY - 2024A: 240,194 million CNY (YOY +34.0%) - 2025E: 322,751 million CNY (YOY +34.4%) - 2026E: 420,661 million CNY (YOY +30.3%) - 2027E: 504,956 million CNY (YOY +20.0%) [6] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 5,308 million CNY - 2024A: 16,632 million CNY (YOY +213.3%) - 2025E: 12,500 million CNY (YOY -24.8%) - 2026E: 16,662 million CNY (YOY +33.3%) - 2027E: 19,696 million CNY (YOY +18.2%) [6] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.9% in 2027E [6] Strategic Focus - The merger aims to leverage Zeekr's experience in the smart electric vehicle sector to benefit the entire Geely Automobile Group [7] - The company is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with Geely Automobile Group and Zeekr Technology Group, enhancing collaboration across seven key technological areas [7] - The strategic positioning of brands under Geely includes Zeekr as a global luxury tech brand and Lynk & Co as a high-end global new energy brand [8] Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profit for Geely Automobile from 2025 to 2027 is as follows: - 2025E: 12,500 million CNY - 2026E: 16,662 million CNY - 2027E: 19,696 million CNY [8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.24 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.95 CNY by 2027 [10]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 温冲 于建平 北京报道 5月7日，吉利汽车控股有限公司（下称"吉利汽车"，股票代码：0175.HK）宣布，计划收购极氪智能科技有限公 司（下称"极氪"，股票代码：NYSE: ZK) 已发行全部股份。吉利汽车目前持有极氪约65.7%的股份，如交易完 成，极氪将与吉利汽车实现完全合并。 对此，《华夏时报》记者联系了多位吉利汽车、极氪的相关负责人，但收到的反馈基本上是三缄其口。极氪相关 负责人表示："这是吉利汽车方面在操作，我这边不清楚。"吉利汽车的相关负责人则表示："我们现在没有更多的 延展解读，还是以官方发布的新闻稿和公告为准。" 根据公告，吉利汽车建议购买价为每股极氪股份2.566美元或每股美国存托股票25.66美元。倘若私有化建议落实并 完成，极氪将成为本公司的全资附属公司，实现私有化并于纽交所退市。 拟从美股退市，极氪或成中概股回流"第一股" 李颜伟的这一观点，实际上与吉利汽车官方发布的吉利控股集团董事长李书福的观点基本一致，尤其是后者的最 后一句话。 李书福表示："面对激烈的市场竞争和日益复杂的经济环境，我们将审时度势、根据《台州宣言》精神，持 ...

公 司 报 告 证券分析师 | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060511010006 | | | BQV509 | | | WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn | | 王跟海 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523080001 | | | BVG944 | | | WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn | 汽车 2025 年 05 月 08 日 吉利汽车(0175.HK) 拟私有化极氪，"一个吉利"正当时 推荐（维持） 股价：16.78 元（港币） 主要数据 | 行业 | 汽车 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.geely auto.com.hk | | 大股东/持股 | | | 实际控制人 | 李书福 | | 总股本(百万股) | 10078.04 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 1570.88 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 59.71 | 行情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company intends to privatize Zeekr (ZK.N) at a proposed price of $2.566 per share, representing a premium of approximately 13.6% over the last trading price on the NYSE, and 20.0% over the volume-weighted average price for the last 30 trading days. If completed, Zeekr will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Geely Auto and will delist from the US stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Privatization Proposal - Geely holds approximately 65.7% of Zeekr's total issued and outstanding share capital. If the privatization proposal is successful, Zeekr will become a wholly-owned subsidiary and will delist from the NYSE. The funding for the privatization may come from new share issuance, cash reserves, and debt financing if necessary [1][2]. - If cash is used for the privatization, it would require approximately 16.18 billion RMB based on Zeekr's total share capital of 2.542 billion shares and a non-company ownership ratio of 34.3%. If new shares are issued, it would involve issuing approximately 1.073 billion new shares, leading to a dilution of about 9.6% [1][2]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - Zeekr and Lynk & Co aim for a total sales target of 710,000 units by 2025, with Zeekr contributing 320,000 units and Lynk & Co 390,000 units. The Lynk & Co 900 was launched in April, with over 10,000 pre-orders within an hour, 30% of which came from owners of premium brands [2]. - The Zeekr 9 X luxury SUV is set to debut in the third quarter of 2025, featuring advanced technology and a price expected to exceed 1 million RMB. The introduction of new models is anticipated to accelerate market share acquisition in the high-end segment [2]. Group 3: AI and Technology Integration - Geely announced a deep integration with DeepSeek's large model in February and launched a comprehensive AI strategy in April, which includes advanced technologies that will be gradually applied to new models. The Lynk & Co 900 will be among the first to use NVIDIA's Thor chip, enhancing the company's focus on smart technology and potentially boosting product sales [3]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 240.19 billion RMB in 2024 to 512.83 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.0% in 2024 and 16.6% in 2027. Net profit is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 16.63 billion RMB in 2024 and 20.38 billion RMB in 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [6] Core Views - Geely plans to privatize Zeekr (ZK.N) at a price of $2.566 per share, representing a premium of approximately 13.6% over the last trading day [1] - The privatization aims to consolidate resources and create a unified Geely brand, enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness in the luxury electric vehicle market [2] - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 364.78 billion, RMB 439.69 billion, and RMB 512.83 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Privatization and Resource Integration - Geely holds approximately 65.7% of Zeekr's issued shares and plans to finance the privatization through new share issuance, cash reserves, and debt if necessary [2] - The cash privatization would require RMB 16.18 billion, while the share issuance would dilute existing shares by about 9.6% [2] Product Launches and Market Strategy - Geely aims for total sales of 710,000 vehicles in 2025, with Zeekr targeting 320,000 and Lynk & Co 390,000 [3] - The Lynk & Co 900 was launched in April 2025, with over 10,000 pre-orders within the first hour, indicating strong market interest [3] Technological Advancements - Geely is enhancing its AI integration, launching a comprehensive AI strategy that includes advanced driving technologies and voice models [4] - The integration of AI technologies is expected to boost product sales and reshape the company's valuation [4] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 364.78 billion, RMB 439.69 billion, and RMB 512.83 billion, with net profits of RMB 14.02 billion, RMB 17.78 billion, and RMB 20.38 billion respectively [5] - The projected EPS for the same period is 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 RMB, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [4][5]

Core Insights - Macquarie updated its report on China's electric vehicle (EV) sales, predicting that the mass market will continue to outperform the high-end market in May [1] Industry Overview - In April, plug-in electric vehicle sales reached 900,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, while the overall automotive market grew by 14%; the EV penetration rate remained at 51% [1] - The low-cost new energy vehicle startups (Xpeng, Leap Motor) maintained growth momentum, while high-end electric vehicles lagged behind [1] - BYD showed strong export performance, but demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is slowing [1] Company Performance - **BYD**: Sales increased by 21% year-on-year, driven by a record export volume of 79,000 units, with a year-to-date increase of 105%. Domestic sales grew by 11% year-on-year, lagging behind market performance due to slowing PHEV demand [3] - **Geely**: April sales remained flat month-on-month, but year-to-date sales increased by 49%, exceeding the company's annual growth target of 25%. April new energy vehicle sales reached 126,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 144% [4] - **Xpeng**: April sales exceeded 30,000 units, with a year-to-date increase of 313%, reflecting strong demand for popular models M03, P7t, and the refreshed G6 and G9 [5] - **Li Auto**: Sales decreased by 8% month-on-month, with a year-to-date increase of only 20%, falling behind the 36% growth rate of the new energy vehicle market [6] - **NIO**: Sales rebounded by 59% month-on-month, with brand sales increasing by 90% to 19,500 units, benefiting from increased promotions and the launch of the ET9 model [7] - **Zeekr**: Total sales for Zeekr and Lynk & Co increased by 19% year-on-year, slightly lagging behind the overall new energy vehicle market [8] - **Xiaomi**: Demand for the SU7 sports sedan remained strong, with April sales exceeding 28,000 units, reaching maximum production capacity [9] Sales Data Summary - In April 2025, the total EV market in China was 900,000 units, a decrease of 9.2% from March 2025, but a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [10] - BYD accounted for 42.2% of the market share with 380,100 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [10] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 125,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 144.2% [10] - Xpeng sold 35,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 273.1% [10] - Li Auto's sales were 33,900 units, with a year-on-year increase of 31.6% [10] - Xiaomi's sales were 28,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 296.7% [10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Stock Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting with no change in rates [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a significant rally, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.7%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.27% [1] - Notable stock movements included a drop of over 7% for Google, a decline of more than 1% for Apple, while Nvidia rose over 3% and Amazon increased by 2% [1] Group 2: Baidu's Animal Language Conversion Patent - Baidu has officially published a patent for an "Animal Language Conversion Method, Device, Electronic Equipment, and Storage Medium," which aims to facilitate deep communication between humans and animals [2][3] - The patent utilizes artificial intelligence technologies, including machine learning and natural language processing, to accurately identify animal emotional states and translate them into human-understandable language [2][3] - This innovation is expected to enhance emotional communication and understanding between species, improving cross-species communication accuracy and efficiency [3] Group 3: Industry Developments - Tencent announced an upgrade to its text-to-image generation capabilities, integrating the latest models into its platform [15] - Lenovo introduced a groundbreaking "super intelligent agent" technology at its innovation conference, marking a significant evolution in AI capabilities [16] - Apple is considering a major overhaul of its Safari browser to focus on AI-driven search engines, potentially ending its long-standing partnership with Google [16][17] - Arm reported record quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion but provided disappointing guidance, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [18][19] - Baidu and Alibaba Cloud launched the first vertical MCP service in the finance and tax sector, aiming to transition businesses from experience-driven to data-driven operations [19][20] - Geely proposed to privatize Zeekr at a price of $2.57 per share, representing a premium over recent trading prices [23]