国庆中秋长假再次展现出中国消费市场的巨大潜力，中国正在从"生产大国"向"消费大国"稳步迈进。中 国离消费大国还有多远？从"量"上看，已然不远；从"质"上看，仍在途中。抵达的快慢，取决于我们改 革的深度、开放的广度、创新的力度。 国际经验表明，人均GDP超过1万美元后，消费升级将持续推进，而我国人均GDP已连续两年稳定在1.3 万美元以上。政策层面，我国坚定实施扩大内需战略，加快培育完整内需体系，近年来消费对经济增长 的贡献率持续提升。供给侧结构性改革深入推进，一批具备全球影响力的中国品牌正在崛起。国庆中秋 假期，服务体验类消费、绿色智能商品、国潮消费成为主要亮点，正是消费市场从规模扩张向质量提升 转型的生动写照。 一个被称为"消费大国"的国家，不仅是消费总量大，它更是一个结构性和质量性的概念，指向的是一种 经济增长由国内消费特别是居民消费驱动的发展模式。从国际经验看，消费大国的最终消费支出占国内 生产总值的比重较高，通常持续稳定在60%以上。而且，消费结构高度优化，服务消费占据主导地位； 拥有成熟、创新和开放的消费环境，能够孕育出具有全球影响力的品牌，成为全球消费趋势的重要策源 地之一。当面临外部经济冲击时， ...

国庆中秋长假再次展现出中国消费市场的巨大潜力，中国正在从"生产大国"向"消费大国"稳步迈进。中 国离消费大国还有多远？从"量"上看，已然不远；从"质"上看，仍在途中。抵达的快慢，取决于我们改 革的深度、开放的广度、创新的力度。 刚刚过去的国庆中秋长假，全社会跨区域人员流动量超24亿人次，创历史新高。8天时间里，国内出游 8.88亿人次，较2024年7天国庆节假日增加1.23亿人次；国内出游总花费8090.06亿元，较2024年7天国庆 节假日增加1081.89亿元。商务部重点监测的78个步行街（商圈）客流量、营业额同比分别增长8.8%和 6.0%。国庆中秋长假再次展现出中国消费市场的巨大潜力，中国正在从"生产大国"向"消费大国"稳步迈 进。 打造消费大国，我国具有坚实基础。我国拥有14亿多人口，中等收入群体超4亿人，社会消费品零售总 额接近50万亿元，是全球第二大消费市场、第一大网络零售市场、第二大进口市场。在这样的超大规模 市场中，任何微小的渗透率提升，都意味着巨大的市场增量。我国城镇化进程仍在推进，其所带来的集 聚效应和生活方式的改变，是消费扩张的持续动力。 服务消费的快速增长引人注目。文化旅游、体育健康 ...

Group 1 - The report from Guojin Securities emphasizes the need to improve the income distribution system by increasing the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution and enhancing the share of disposable income for residents in national income distribution [1] - It highlights the importance of strengthening social security by addressing shortcomings in education, healthcare, and elderly care, thereby improving the supply level of basic public services, with a focus on rural pension reform to stimulate domestic demand [1] - The report suggests optimizing consumption structure through accelerated service industry opening, reducing entry restrictions for service loans, and advancing urbanization to expand service consumption while further eliminating restrictive measures in the consumption sector [1] Group 2 - It calls for the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote consumption by increasing the "consumption rate" indicator, improving consumption-related statistical methods, enhancing local government assessment mechanisms, and accelerating tax system reforms represented by consumption tax reform [1] - The report advocates for leveraging new urbanization to unleash domestic demand potential, deepening household registration system reforms, and providing basic public services based on residence, while promoting the urbanization of rural migrant populations [1] - It notes that the development of modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas will create high-end consumption markets, which will serve as the main carriers for leading consumption upgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - China is transitioning from a manufacturing powerhouse to a major consumer market, aiming to enhance domestic consumption as a key driver of economic growth [2][4][9]. Group 1: Current Economic Landscape - China has a consumption scale of nearly 50 trillion yuan, over 50 trillion yuan in investments, and more than 20 trillion yuan in imports, making it the second-largest consumer and import market globally [2]. - In 2024, the contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is projected to be only 44.5%, significantly lower than the global average of 56.5% [3]. - The current economic environment faces challenges of insufficient effective demand, particularly in consumption, necessitating stronger consumer spending to drive growth [3]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Becoming a Consumer Power - Transitioning to a consumer economy is a strategic move to mitigate external risks, especially given the volatility in global trade and tariffs imposed by the U.S. [4]. - A mature consumer market enhances China's influence in global trade, affecting international market dynamics and improving China's global economic standing [4]. - Boosting domestic consumption is essential for achieving high-quality economic development and creating diverse market demands, which will stimulate various sectors and generate employment [4]. Group 3: Policy Initiatives for Consumption Growth - The Chinese government is shifting macroeconomic policies to focus on improving livelihoods and promoting consumption, with a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand [5]. - Key measures include increasing residents' income through various channels, enhancing social security systems, and optimizing the consumption environment to boost consumer confidence [6][7]. - The government is also working on supply-side upgrades to meet the growing demand for personalized and quality consumption [7]. Group 4: Structural Reforms - Long-term reforms, such as adjusting the consumption tax system and promoting a unified national market, are crucial for stimulating local consumption and balancing investment and consumption [8]. - The recent policy changes aim to empower local governments to promote consumption actively, addressing the historical bias towards investment over consumption [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The shift from a manufacturing to a consumer economy is seen as an inevitable trend in China's economic development, crucial for improving the well-being of its citizens [9][10]. - This transformation is expected to reshape the future of China's economy significantly, aligning with broader global economic interactions [10].

Economic Overview - China's economy is showing resilience with a stable growth outlook, supported by proactive macro policies and a strong domestic demand [1][2] - Export growth in the first five months of the year was 6.0% in USD terms, surpassing last year's annual growth of 5.8% [1] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q1 was 38.9%, higher than last year's 30.3% [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic consumption is improving, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year from January to May, compared to 3.5% for the entire previous year [2] - Key consumer sectors such as communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture saw growth rates exceeding 20% due to the "old-for-new" consumption policy [2] - Fixed asset investment also increased by 3.7% year-on-year in the same period, outpacing last year's 3.2% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with a record-high deficit ratio and significant expansion in special bonds and long-term special bonds [1][3] - The total fiscal space available for the second half of the year exceeds 7 trillion yuan, with ample room for supporting consumption, investment, and foreign trade [3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, focusing on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than further easing in the short term [2] Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Economic pressures are manageable, providing a window for structural reforms, including the promotion of a unified national market and the exit of outdated production capacity [3] - The government aims to transition from a manufacturing powerhouse to a major consumer economy, with new policies such as annual childcare subsidies starting in 2025 [3] - Additional measures to boost consumption, including optimizing vacation systems and improving social security, are being actively implemented [3]

Core Viewpoints - The current consumer landscape in China shows a positive development trend, with a focus on enhancing consumption as a primary economic task [3][4][16] - The government is implementing policies to stimulate consumption, including financial support and strategic actions to transition from a "manufacturing powerhouse" to a "consumer powerhouse" [1][3] Consumer Development Trends - There is a rapid upgrade in consumer goods, with significant growth in service consumption sectors such as dining, culture, tourism, sports, and health [4][16] - New consumption highlights include inbound consumption, domestic "trendy" products, and digital consumption [4][16] Factors Contributing to Positive Consumer Trends - Increased income levels are releasing potential for service consumption, with a shift from survival-based spending to development and enjoyment-based spending [5][17] - Technological advancements are driving innovation in consumption models [5][17] - Improved supply levels are creating new demand opportunities [5][19] Policy Recommendations for Stimulating Consumption - Enhance consumer capacity by increasing labor remuneration and expanding the middle-income group [9][21] - Optimize the consumption environment through market regulation and consumer rights protection [10][22] - Reduce consumption restrictions in sectors like automotive and housing to promote market activity [11][23] - Improve supply quality by encouraging innovation in product development and service delivery [12][24] - Innovate consumption scenarios to meet diverse consumer needs through technology [13][25] - Strengthen modern circulation systems to enhance urban and rural commercial infrastructure [14][26] Challenges in Consumption Supply - Structural and technical challenges hinder the ability to meet evolving consumer demands [25][27] - There is a mismatch between high-end consumer demand and the supply of quality products [25][27] - Coordination issues within the supply chain affect responsiveness to market changes [25][27] Strategies for Enhancing Supply Efficiency - Focus on demand-driven supply chain reforms to align with consumer preferences for quality and sustainability [26][28] - Leverage digital technologies to improve supply chain transparency and efficiency [27][28] - Optimize the regulatory environment to reduce transaction costs and enhance market vitality [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, with expectations of GDP growth slowing to 4.5% in the third quarter of 2025, following a strong second quarter performance [3][13]. Core Insights - The second quarter showed robust growth, but June data revealed emerging concerns, particularly in retail and export sectors, indicating a potential softening of economic momentum [3][4]. - The real estate market continues to struggle, with declining transaction volumes and increased fiscal pressure on local governments, necessitating potential policy adjustments [5][12]. - Consumer spending is being supported through financial measures, with a focus on enhancing service supply to stimulate demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The second quarter GDP growth is projected to reach 5%, but a decline to 4.5% is anticipated in the third quarter due to weakening exports and a sluggish real estate market [3][13]. - Retail sales showed strong performance in early June, driven by promotional activities, but this may not be sustainable as consumer sentiment weakens [4][10]. Export and Trade - Exports to the U.S. saw a rebound in June, likely due to seasonal demand for the holiday shopping season, but overall export performance remains weak [4][18]. - Container throughput at major ports in China has significantly slowed, indicating a broader decline in trade activity [4][14]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with transaction volumes continuing to decline and fiscal revenues falling short of budget targets [5][22]. - Local governments face increasing fiscal challenges, prompting discussions on expanding budgetary flexibility and potential new financing tools [5][12]. Consumer Spending and Policy Measures - The government is implementing measures to support consumer spending, including financial backing for service consumption and infrastructure development [10][11]. - Structural reforms are necessary for a more balanced economic recovery, focusing on social welfare and tax reforms [11][12].