May 6, 2025 04:05 AM GMT 中国的新兴前沿⸺数据中心 中国版的赋能AI 我们更新了对中国数据中心行业供需的判断以及分析了 GPU 供应风险⸺我们认为市场过度担忧，我们更看好中国的数据 中心行业。 要点 主要基本主题：DC需求的上行周期与利率下行周期同时出现，通过REIT实现存量 数据中心资产盘活。 中国互联网大厂对AI的投资应该会给上游IDC带来显著的上行空间：我们估计，未 来三年中国六大互联网和云服务提供商（CSP）的年度资本支出将增加59％，达到 人民币3730亿元（超过500亿美元）。 我们预计，未来三年新数据中心的平均新增订单将达到每年 3-4 吉瓦（2024 年约 为 2 吉瓦），存量复合年增长率为 20％。 我们在未来1-2年的时间里强烈看好中国北方市场，因为AI训练和推理需求集中于 该地区，而且供应相对紧俏。 GPU供应可能成为瓶颈...我们与大中华区半导体分析师詹家鸿（Charlie Chan）合 作进行了情境分析。在我们的悲观情境中，芯片短缺可能会严重阻碍中国AI数据 中心的发展。 ...但在我们的基准情境下，国产GPU就已足够：我们假设即使英伟达无法获得向中 国出售H ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish view on the USD, driven by underlying fundamentals rather than expectations of any multilateral accords [4][6]. Core Insights - The potential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has been a topic of discussion among FX market participants, aimed at engineering USD weakness through various approaches, including punitive tariffs and adjustments in FX reserves [2][3]. - Recent USD weakness has been primarily European-led, attributed to a macro re-think regarding US exceptionalism and structural changes in US international policy [4][5]. - Asian FX appreciation has sparked speculation of a currency accord, indicating a potential shift in trade negotiations with the US [6][20]. - The report suggests that if USD/Asia continues to weaken, it would benefit cyclical currencies and broaden the dollar weakness, particularly impacting EUR/USD positively [40][41]. Summary by Sections USD Weakness Drivers - The report identifies cyclical and structural factors contributing to USD weakness, including declining real policy rates and a shift in US fiscal policy [5][9]. - Historical data indicates that the most bearish periods for the dollar occur when the term premium rises alongside a decline in Fed terminal rates [9][13]. Asian FX Dynamics - Recent movements in Asian currencies, particularly TWD, have broken historical records, leading to significant declines in USD against various Asian currencies [21][24]. - The report highlights that speculation around a currency accord has likely contributed to the strength of Asian FX, despite the absence of official confirmation [28][34]. Trade Recommendations - The report recommends buying AUD/USD and AUD/NZD, while suggesting selling USD/JPY and CHF/JPY as part of a macro portfolio strategy [65]. - It emphasizes that cyclical currencies like AUD are well-positioned to benefit from a potential rollback of tariffs and improved trade conditions [41][61].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the industry, with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.2% for China in 2025, reflecting a slowdown due to tariff impacts [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's growth is expected to soften significantly in the second and third quarters of 2025, with persistent deflationary pressures [3][4]. - It highlights the reactive nature of current policy measures, including faster government bond issuance and modest monetary easing, aimed at supporting the economy amid tariff uncertainties [9][16]. - The report suggests that while tariffs are currently high, there is potential for de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, which could alleviate some economic pressures [17][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is forecasted to decline to 4.2% in 2025, with a notable softening in growth expected during Q2 and Q3 [2][4]. - The GDP deflator indicates a prolonged period of deflation, with expectations of deflationary pressures lasting until at least 2026 [5][6]. Policy Measures - The report outlines a series of policy measures aimed at stimulating the economy, including a supplementary fiscal package of RMB 1-1.5 trillion and enhanced support for infrastructure and technology investments [9][16]. - Specific measures include unemployment insurance rebates for exporters and a relending facility to support service consumption [16]. Tariff Impact - The report discusses the significant impact of tariffs on China's exports, noting that the current trade-weighted tariff on Chinese goods is projected to decrease to 34% with exemptions, while headline reciprocal tariffs remain at 60% [20][22]. - It highlights the low elasticity of certain Chinese exports to tariff changes, indicating that many products are highly reliant on the Chinese market [28][30]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies worthwhile investment areas, including manufacturing upgrades, urban infrastructure renewal, and basic scientific research, as sectors that may benefit from policy support [12][16]. - It also notes that the technology sector is expected to see increased capital expenditure, driven by AI adoption and government support [89][91]. Social Dynamics - The report points to evolving social dynamics that may trigger further policy pivots, particularly in response to changing consumer sentiment and economic conditions [13][16]. - It emphasizes the need for social welfare reforms to address low consumption rates and high household savings, which have been a barrier to economic growth [71][75].

May 6, 2025 08:32 AM GMT 亚洲科技 | Asia Pacific 科技脉动⸺没有美国芯片中 国能行吗？ 华为推出了一种新的AI计算机架系统CloudMatrix 384超节点， 可以与世界上最好的AI基础设施技术相媲美。这也许可以让中 国解决其计算能力瓶颈，在不依赖西方的情况下训练自己的 模型，并为下一波AI创新提供动力。 中国AI硬件的突破⸺新的AI加速器和机架级架构：华为的CloudMatrix 384超节点 是基于384颗华为Ascend 910C AI芯片构建的机架级系统。虽然在单芯片性能方面 落后，但在系统性能方面与GB200 NVL72相当，计算能力为300 PFLOPS（千万亿 次），超过英伟达NVL72系统的180 PFLOPS。创新更多是在系统层面，包括网 络、光学和软件层，但与英伟达Blackwell芯片相比是需要五倍数量的Ascend芯片 来抵消性能差距。华为已经与硅基流动等中国AI基础设施公司合作实施 了CloudMatrix 384超节点，以支持DeepSeek-R1。 为何重要：这解决了中国独特的制约因素⸺出口管制和晶圆供应⸺但也发挥了 其规模和强大实力的可 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for the covered companies, indicating an expectation of outperforming the average total return of the stocks in the research analyst's coverage universe [29][31][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights robust capital expenditure (capex) growth among major US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) such as Meta, Microsoft, and Google, with a combined year-over-year growth of 60% [1]. - The positive outlook for capex investments is supported by raised full-year guidance from Meta and reiterated forecasts from Microsoft and Google, suggesting continued strong investment momentum throughout the year [1][3]. - Despite concerns regarding a slowdown in AI investments and tariff impacts, the report suggests limited near-term effects on capex trajectories for the CSPs [1]. Summary by Company Meta - Meta's capex increased by $7 billion year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter, with a 104% rise year-over-year in Q1 2025, reaching $13.7 billion [3]. - The full-year capex outlook for 2025 has been raised to $64-$72 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 73%, driven by AI investments and core business support [3]. Microsoft - Microsoft reported a capex of $21.4 billion for Q3 2025, marking a 53% increase year-over-year, despite a 5% quarter-over-quarter decline [3]. - The company maintains a double-digit growth outlook for fiscal 2H25, with expected year-over-year growth of over 10% for Q4 2025 [3]. Google - Google's capex for Q1 2025 rose by 20% quarter-over-quarter and 43% year-over-year, totaling $17.2 billion, primarily due to infrastructure investments [3]. - The full-year capex outlook for 2025 is reiterated at $75 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of over 40% [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [7][12]. Core Insights - The Energy Sensitive basket has seen a significant decline, moving from outperforming to the worst-performing category due to a sharp decline in energy prices [7]. - Tariff-sensitive baskets, particularly those related to the US and China, have underperformed the market amid ongoing tariff escalations. A potential trade deal could lead to significant mean reversion in these themes [12]. - Policy-sensitive themes have experienced notable movements since the election, with specific mention of the DOGE/Fiscal Tightening basket as a favorable risk/reward opportunity [12]. - The Europe Defense sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by 46% since the US election, while US Aerospace & Defense has underperformed by 37%, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the latter [12]. - The Momentum Factor is currently favoring defensives and low volatility stocks, suggesting a pair trade opportunity between Long AI/Data Center and Short Low Vol Aristocrats [12]. Summary by Sections Tariff Sensitive Baskets - The report identifies various tariff-sensitive baskets, including those for the US, China, Europe, and Mexico, highlighting their vulnerability to tariff-related policy actions [17][21][26][43]. - A list of companies with high overseas revenue exposure (>30%) is provided, indicating their sensitivity to US tariffs [21][31]. Sector Performance - The report discusses the performance of different sectors, noting that the US Defense sector and the EU Defense sector have distinct performance metrics, with the EU sector benefiting from recent policy headlines [12][81][86]. - The report also highlights the potential beneficiaries of the Green/EV/Climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, focusing on companies in the Industrials, Technology, and Utilities sectors [67]. Consumer Exposure - The report emphasizes the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on low-end consumers, identifying stocks that are at risk of underperforming due to this demographic's financial pressures [80]. Government and Policy Impacts - The report outlines the potential effects of government spending cuts and efficiency improvements on specific stocks, particularly in the defense and industrial sectors [62][71].

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as In-Line [5] Core Insights - Strong AI capital expenditure (capex) guidance from major cloud service providers (CSPs) indicates robust demand, with the top four hyperscalers expected to allocate a total of US$325 billion in capex for calendar year 2025 [2][10] - The production capacity of the GB300 server rack is critical to meet the anticipated demand, with estimates suggesting that only 5,000 to 10,000 units will be available in the first half of 2025, fulfilling only US$15 billion to US$30 billion of AI capex [2][4] - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI servers in 2025 is projected to be around US$160 billion, representing a 50% share of the total capex [2][9] Summary by Sections AI Capex and Demand - Major CSPs like Meta, Microsoft, and Google report that AI customer demand continues to exceed their data center capacity, which is favorable for AI server chip demand [2][10] - Meta has increased its capex to US$64-72 billion, while Microsoft is shifting more of its capex towards server systems, indicating a trend towards short-lived assets like CPU/GPU servers [10][11] Supply Chain and Production - The GB300 server rack's output in the second half of 2025 is deemed critical, with a need for total NVL72 server rack production to reach 30,000 units to fulfill approximately US$100 billion of AI capex [2][4] - TSMC is expected to produce at least 5 million units of Blackwell chips in 2025, which is essential for meeting the demand [2][4] Chip Development and Innovations - There is ongoing activity in 3nm AI ASIC design, with MediaTek and other companies working on new chips to address strong demand, particularly from China [7][24] - Nvidia's new B30 chip is being developed to cater to China's AI inference demand, while the 3nm TPU design for Google is expected to tape out in July 2025 [7][24] Financial Projections - The top four US hyperscalers are projected to generate US$550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing capex growth [9][12] - Depreciation as a percentage of total expenses is expected to rise, reflecting increased investment in data centers, with projections of 10-14% in 2025 [12][19] Market Trends - The AI supply chain is experiencing bottlenecks, particularly in Asia, which could impact the timely fulfillment of demand [8][9] - The report highlights a significant year-over-year growth in cloud capex, with a forecast of 40% growth in 2025, up from a prior estimate of 31% [19][20]

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next 12-18 months [8]. Core Insights - Well-supplied oil markets in the second half of 2025 are expected to lead to positive earnings surprises for refiners and fuel retailers in Asia, particularly in India, Thailand, and Australia [2][10]. - The OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas by 411 kb/d in June contributes to an anticipated oversupply of 1.1 mbpd in oil markets for 2H25 and 1.9 mbpd in 2026, leading to lowered Brent oil price forecasts of US$57.5/bbl for 2H25 and US$56.9/bbl for 2026 [4]. - Key beneficiaries identified include HPCL, Indian Oil, GAIL, Reliance, and Ampol, while PTTEP is noted as a key underweight [5][10]. - Asian refiners have consistently outperformed or matched regional benchmarks since 2015, with refined product supply from 2025 to 2027 expected to remain below demand growth [10][11]. Summary by Sections Oil Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant oversupply in the oil market, with projections of 1.1 mbpd in 2H25 and 1.9 mbpd in 2026, alongside a reduction in Brent oil price forecasts [4]. - The refining cycle is expected to see incremental supply growth of approximately 0.4-0.5 mbpd from 2025 to 2027, against a demand growth of 0.7-0.8 mbpd [11]. Company Performance - Fuel refiners and retailers are projected to maintain margins near mid-cycle levels despite declining industry cracks in 1Q25, with Indian fuel retailers benefiting from stable fuel prices and lower oil costs [10]. - Thai refiners, particularly Thai Oil and PTTOR, are highlighted as strong cash flow plays due to rising crude supply and lower working capital needs [10]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that Indian fuel retailers are well-positioned due to steady fuel prices and lower oil costs, with no immediate risk of fuel price cuts [10]. - In Australia, Ampol is identified as a key beneficiary from lower oil prices, reinforcing the positive outlook for the region's refiners [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" industry view for Greater China Technology Semiconductors [6]. Core Insights - China's AI GPU self-sufficiency is projected to increase from 34% in 2024 to 82% by 2027, with the total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI expected to grow at a CAGR of 28% to reach US$239 billion by 2027, with China accounting for approximately US$48 billion [2][17]. - The overall semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio in China is currently at 24%, up from 20% in 2023, driven by government subsidies, inventory digestion, and capacity ramp-up in memory and leading node products [3][11]. - Local GPU suppliers like Huawei and Cambricon are primarily supported by SMIC, which faces capacity expansion challenges [2][18]. Summary by Sections AI GPU Self-Sufficiency - The self-sufficiency ratio for AI GPUs in China is estimated at 34% for 2024 and expected to rise to 82% by 2027, with significant growth in the cloud AI market [2][17]. - The TAM for cloud AI is projected to grow to US$48 billion in 2027, with China expected to capture 20% of global demand [2][17]. Semiconductor Market Overview - China's semiconductor market was valued at approximately US$183 billion in 2023, with local companies generating US$43 billion in revenue, marking a 36% increase from US$32 billion in 2023 [3]. - The self-sufficiency ratio for semiconductors in China is currently at 24%, reflecting a 4 percentage point increase from the previous year [3][11]. Localization Progress - Significant advancements have been made in memory, image sensors, and power semiconductors, while equipment and EDA progress has been slower than expected [8]. - Local vendors in memory and power semiconductors are benefiting from the growth in electric vehicles and gaining market share over global competitors [8]. Stock Implications - The report is equal-weight on SMIC and Empyrean Technology, noting that while SMIC is crucial for local AI chip production, potential Nvidia acquisitions could impact domestic GPU market share [4]. - Positive outlook on China wafer fab equipment makers like Naura, AMEC, and ACM Research due to local foundry and memory capacity expansion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal Weight (EW) rating on MSCI China within the global Emerging Markets/Asia Pacific ex-Japan (EM/APxJ) framework, indicating structural improvements in China but acknowledging growth challenges due to tariff shocks [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights several sustainable structural improvements for MSCI China, including a recovery in Return on Equity (ROE), increased investibility, and a positive earnings revision cycle, while also noting the offsetting challenges posed by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [15][17]. - The MSCI China ROE is expected to recover and catch up with MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) by 2027, driven by corporate self-help initiatives and a less macro-influenced offshore Chinese universe [17]. - The report indicates a shift in valuation regime for MSCI China, moving from a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 8-10x to 10-12x, reflecting a regulatory shift towards revitalization and ongoing technological advancements [17]. Summary by Sections Economic and Earnings Estimates - The report assesses various factors impacting the economic and earnings landscape, indicating a neutral stance on economic estimates and a neutral valuation outlook as of April 2025 [13]. - Earnings estimates have been on a downward revision path due to uncertain macro momentum, with a consensus EPS growth forecast for MSCI China at 9% for 2025 and 12% for 2026 [54]. Price Targets and Valuation - The report presents a base case target price for MSCI China at 67, reflecting a 5% downside from the current price, with a forward P/E of 10.5x [7]. - The bull case target price for MSCI China is set at 83, indicating an 18% upside, while the bear case target price is at 47, representing a 33% downside [7]. Sector Performance - The report details sector-specific EPS contributions, with the Consumer Discretionary sector expected to grow by 14% in 2025, while Financials are projected to decline by 1% [54]. - The Information Technology sector is anticipated to show significant growth, with an EPS growth forecast of 23% for 2025 [54]. Consumer Sentiment and Policy Stimulus - Consumer sentiment has weakened, with increasing concerns over job security and inflation impacting household spending [77][80]. - The report notes a modest fiscal package announced at the National People's Congress (NPC), with a focus on technology and limited consumption-related stimulus [83][85].