Macro Research - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential diminishing multiplier effect from durable goods subsidies, with price recovery largely dependent on effective fiscal input, particularly towards consumption and services [2][4] - In a neutral scenario, both CPI and PPI are expected to see a moderate upward shift [2][4] Retail and Service Research - The company Emei Mountain A is expected to benefit from the renovation of the Golden Summit cableway and the construction of Leshan Airport, enhancing the scenic area's capacity and visitor experience, which will drive traffic growth and profit recovery [2][6] - The renovation of the Golden Summit cableway will increase its capacity from approximately 1,200 people per hour to 3,200 people per hour, representing a 167% increase, which will alleviate peak waiting times and enhance visitor spending [8] - Leshan Airport is projected to facilitate tourist growth, with a designed annual throughput of 2.6 million passengers, expected to connect with existing highway networks to create a direct transport corridor to major scenic spots [8] Company Coverage - Emei Mountain A is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 20.65 CNY, compared to the current price of 14.46 CNY, reflecting a market capitalization of 761.9 million [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 251 million CNY, 308 million CNY, and 346 million CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 CNY, 0.59 CNY, and 0.66 CNY [7] - The company has established a diversified business ecosystem through a full industry chain layout, including ticket sales, cableway operations, hotels, and various derivative businesses [7] Market Potential - Emei Mountain's visitor numbers were 4.67 million in 2024, significantly lower than other comparable sites, indicating substantial room for market growth through improved transportation and product upgrades [9] - The company has demonstrated strong unit visitor value conversion capabilities, with total tourism revenue of 1.013 billion CNY in 2024, higher than that of Jiuhua Mountain [9]

- The report introduces two key tracking indicators: "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" and "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" [7] - The "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" is designed to capture the buying behavior of large funds. It is calculated by identifying large orders from transaction data and computing the proportion of large buy orders' transaction amounts relative to the total daily transaction amount [7] - The "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" reflects investors' active buying behavior. It is derived by distinguishing active buy and sell transactions from transaction data, calculating the net active buy amount (active buy amount minus active sell amount), and expressing it as a proportion of the total daily transaction amount [7] Factor Backtesting Results - For individual stocks, the top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" include Xinhua Du (90.6%, 99.2% percentile), Beichen Industrial (89.1%, 98.8% percentile), and Zhongyou Engineering (88.8%, 100.0% percentile) [9] - For individual stocks, the top 10 stocks with the highest 5-day average "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" include Senying Windows (22.3%, 100.0% percentile), Huitong Group (20.0%, 100.0% percentile), and Yuandong Biotech (19.6%, 100.0% percentile) [10] - For broad-based indices, the 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" ranges from 71.7% (Shanghai 50 Index) to 74.3% (China Securities 500 Index), while the "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" ranges from -5.2% (Shanghai 50 Index) to 1.9% (China Securities 500 Index) [12] - For industries, the 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" is highest in the banking sector (80.6%, 86.5% percentile) and lowest in the electronics sector (70.8%, 16.4% percentile). The "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" is highest in the steel sector (7.9%, 75.8% percentile) and lowest in the banking sector (-14.6%, 3.3% percentile) [13] - For ETFs, the top 10 ETFs with the highest 5-day average "Large Order Transaction Amount Proportion" include Guotai CSI A500 ETF (92.3%, 36.1% percentile) and Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF (90.7%, 89.3% percentile) [15] - For ETFs, the top 10 ETFs with the highest 5-day average "Net Active Buy Amount Proportion" include Southern SSE STAR Chip ETF (27.5%, 100.0% percentile) and E Fund Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (23.6%, 99.6% percentile) [16]

产业观察 [table_Header]2025.12.02 【具身智能产业动态】松延动力完成近 2 亿元 Pre- 产业研究中心 B 轮融资，灵心巧手完成数亿元 A 加轮融资 摘要：产业最新趋势跟踪，点评产业最新风向 [Table_Summary] 具身机器人产业动态 国内规模最大的全尺寸人形机器人数据集 LET 数据集开源发布 工信部人形机器人标准化技术委员会名单公布，王兴兴、稚晖君入选 极佳视界发布轮式人形机器人 Maker H01 智元机器人上线灵心平台，用户可通过简易操作实现个性化机器人配置 星动纪元发布物流仓储解决方案，全球首次端到端 VLA 在物流仓储真实应用 智能汽车产业动态 汽车销量榜：10月新势力交付排行榜前三名为零跑（70289辆）、鸿蒙智行（68216 辆）、小鹏（42013 辆）。 小马智行发布 Q3 财报，城市级 UE 转正，Robotaxi 千台目标将提前完成，2026 年规模扩至 3000 辆 小马智行与阳光出行建立战略合作，全面推进自动驾驶出行业务发展 九识智能与广州高新兴机器人战略合作，共推无人巡检创新应用 西井科技与和记阿曼苏哈尔港口签约，15 台 E-Truck 即将进驻 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - On December 1, ByteDance's Doubao team released a technical preview of the Doubao mobile assistant, integrating the Doubao large model deeply into the operating system, advancing edge AI from application-level to system-level [3][7] - The Doubao mobile assistant allows users to interact through voice, side buttons, or the Doubao Ola Friend headset, enhancing user experience and interaction [7] - The Doubao large model demonstrates international first-class performance in reasoning, visual understanding, image creation, video generation, and voice capabilities, achieving the best results in multiple authoritative evaluations [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the integration of AI technology into mobile systems, highlighting the collaboration between Doubao and mobile manufacturers to create a system-level service [3][7] Investment Highlights - The Doubao mobile assistant is positioned as a core product for mobile manufacturers, facilitating the broadest application scenarios and commercial monetization paths for large models [7] - The assistant is currently available for developers and tech enthusiasts on the engineering sample nubia M153, priced at 3499 yuan, with plans for ecological cooperation with various mobile brands [7]

风偏修复下科技板块领涨 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) ——全球股市立体投资策略周报 11 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 上周全球指数明显反弹，股指波动率回落，全球科技板块领涨。资金面上，戴利等 联储官员支持 12 月降息，12 月联储降息预期回升。基本面上，AI 泡沫担忧暂缓， 港股美股科技盈利预期均上修，欧美经济高频景气预期有所回落。 投资要点： | | 021-23154147 | | --- | --- | | | wuxinkun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040061 | | | 陈菲(分析师) | | | 021-23187260 | | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040127 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.02 [Table_Report] 相关报告 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/11/28） 2025.11.28 南向资金流入电商零售规模创 10 月以来新高 2025.11.28 一页纸精读行业比较数据：11 ...

程 20251128） 高频因子普遍反弹，多粒度因子多头表现明显改善。AI 增 强组合表现平稳，多数组合获得正收益。 本报告导读： 上周（特指 20251124-20251128，下同）高频因子普遍反弹，多粒度因子多头表现明 显改善。AI 增强组合表现平稳，多数组合获得正收益。 投资要点： [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 021-23219395 | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 余浩淼(分析师) | | | 021-23185650 | | | yuhaomiao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251128） 2025.11.30 低频选股因子周报（2025.11.21-2025.11.28） 2025.11.29 权益黄金尽墨，全球资产 BL 模型 2 本周微录正 收益 2025.11.28 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251117-251121） 2025.11.27 上周 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating [49] - The real estate industry maintains an "overweight" rating [57] - The insurance industry maintains an "overweight" rating [86] Core Viewpoints - Global risk preferences have significantly declined, leading to asset price fluctuations and panic selling. However, China's capital market is expected to recover in valuation and experience significant development, with A/H shares, industrial commodities recommended for tactical overweight, and US dollars for tactical underweight [20][21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December has risen significantly, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. The Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize, and the policies of various industries will promote the improvement of industry fundamentals [8][15] - The technology theme is expected to return to the main line, and themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are worthy of attention [29] Summary by Directory Macro Reports - **Global Asset Performance**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, major global stock markets rose, commodities generally increased, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [5] - **US Economy**: Manufacturing new orders increased, housing price growth slowed, and consumer growth also slowed [6] - **European Economy**: Business confidence in the eurozone stabilized [7] - **Overseas Policies**: The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December rose to 80%, the ECB President said the current interest rate was appropriate, the UK's budget faced a "technical leak", Japan's bond - issuing plan tilted towards short - term bonds, and the BOJ's December interest rate hike expectation did not increase [8][9][10] - **China's Economy**: Consumption, investment, and production showed structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI marginally rebounded due to improved external demand, and the construction industry's business activity index also increased marginally, but the service industry's declined [13][15] Asset Allocation Report - **A/H Shares**: Tactical overweight is maintained due to multiple factors supporting China's equity performance, such as the release of micro - trading risks and the approaching policy window [20] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tactical standard allocation is maintained because of the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, and the central bank may take action to maintain market liquidity [20] - **Industrial Commodities**: Tactical overweight is maintained as industrial metals like copper may face supply - demand imbalances, with strong demand and increasing development costs [21] - **US Dollars**: Tactical underweight is maintained as the Fed's policy adjustment and the marginal convergence of the US economy reduce the dollar's allocation value [21] Strategy Reports - **Asset Overview**: Global risk preferences recovered, stocks and commodities rose, silver and copper prices hit record highs, and the dollar index weakened. A - shares and other major global stock markets generally rebounded, and the bond market showed a pattern of a bearish steepening in China and a bullish steepening in the US [23][24][25] - **Theme Analysis**: The trading heat of hot themes was stable, the technology theme returned, and funds flowed into AI and communication. Themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are recommended [29] Overseas Strategy Reports - **Fund Flows**: North - bound funds may have a small net inflow, and south - bound funds' inflow into e - commerce and retail reached a new high since October. Overseas funds showed different flow trends in different markets [36][37] - **Policy Tracking**: Domestic policies covered macro, industrial, and local aspects, and overseas policies included diplomatic, economic, and interest - rate - related policies [39][40][43] Industry Reports - **Steel**: Demand is expected to stabilize, supply is expected to contract, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to gradually recover. Companies with product and cost advantages are recommended [45][48][49] - **Utilities**: The proportion of long - term contract electricity in 2026 is expected to decrease, electricity prices may have limited declines, and the industry's valuation is expected to improve [52] - **Real Estate**: The transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities rebounded, and the spot - housing sales are beneficial to the industry's healthy development [57][58] - **Food and Beverage**: CPI data has boosted the sector's expectations. Different sub - sectors such as liquor, beverages, and snacks have corresponding investment recommendations [62] - **Robotics**: Overseas and domestic companies have made progress in the field of humanoid robots, and investment in this field is active. Core component suppliers and整机 manufacturers are recommended [67][68][69] - **Machinery**: The weekly operating load rate of industrial gases increased, and important projects such as the second - phase of the Huanneng Jintan salt - cavern compressed - air energy - storage project advanced. Related companies are recommended [73][74][75] - **Insurance**: In October 2025, the growth rate of life and property insurance premiums declined marginally. The industry is optimistic about the growth of the life insurance's new business value (NBV) in the 2026 opening season and the continuous improvement of the property insurance's combined ratio (COR) [83][84][85] - **Agriculture**: Corn prices rose, the pet food market showed different trends at home and abroad, and the pig - breeding industry needs to pay attention to the epidemic and demand. Related companies in different sub - sectors are recommended [88][89][90] - **Textile and Apparel**: The US clothing retail industry showed growth, and the overseas K - shaped consumption trend continued. Export - manufacturing and brand - end companies are recommended [93][94][95]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is entering a favorable zone, with a significant opportunity for investment in the upcoming months due to a convergence of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals [12][14][13] - The report identifies key sectors to focus on, including technology, financial services, and consumer goods, suggesting a strategic shift towards more aggressive investment positions [14][12] - The anticipated growth in the Chinese capital market is supported by a reduction in previous valuation discounts, with expectations of double-digit profit growth in the non-financial sector by 2026 [13][12] Group 2 - In the technology sector, companies like Tencent and Alibaba are highlighted for their robust revenue and profit growth, driven by advancements in AI and cloud services [20][24] - The electronics industry is seeing accelerated demand for domestic AI solutions, with companies like Haiguang Information benefiting from this trend [32][8] - The communication sector is expected to thrive due to increased capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, with significant growth anticipated in light communication technologies [39][40] Group 3 - The machinery sector is experiencing growth, with companies like Changying Precision and Hengli Hydraulic showing improved profitability and market positioning [6][8] - The automotive industry, particularly Weichai Power, is noted for steady revenue and performance improvements, indicating a positive outlook [6][8] - The healthcare sector, with a focus on innovative pharmaceuticals, is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Ying'en Bio [6][8] Group 4 - The consumer sector is poised for recovery after a three-year adjustment period, with low valuations and potential policy support creating structural opportunities [14][12] - Companies in the retail and food & beverage sectors, such as Shoulu Hotel and Yanjing Beer, are highlighted for their improving performance metrics [6][8] - The financial sector, particularly non-bank financial institutions like Huatai Securities and China Ping An, is expected to benefit from market reforms and improved profitability [6][8]

红利风格择时周报（1124-1128） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 本报告导读： 本周（20251124 至 20251128）红利风格择时模型综合因子值为-0.69，相对于上周 （20251117 至 20251121）的-0.66 基本持平，仍保持小于 0，未发出正向信号。 投资要点： | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 梁誉耀(分析师) | | | 021-38038665 | | | liangyuyao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080003 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251128） 2025.11.30 低频选股因子周报（2025.11.21-2025.11.28） 2025.11.29 权益黄金尽墨，全球资产 BL 模型 2 本周微录正 收益 2025.11.28 绝对收益产品及策略周报（251117-251121） 2025.11.27 上周价量因子表现较 ...

经营现金流显著改善，推进资产盘活工作 中国交建(601800) 中国交建 2025 三季报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): 13.64 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | | 本报告导读： Q3 归母净利润下降 16.3%，扣非归母增长 24.1%，经营净现金流显著改善，新签合 同额稳健增长。预分红比例为 2025H1 利润的 20%，全面推进做实资产专项工作。 投资要点： [维持增持。 Table_Summary] 受基建行业整体需求 ...