[Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 25.63 本报告导读： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.07 出货量高增，高端化和国际化进展喜人 国轩高科(002074) | 国轩高科(002074) | | --- | 2024 年及 2025Q1 国轩高科业绩符合预期，出货量高增，同时，随着产品结构往高 端化发展，以及国际化不断深入，我们认为，未来，公司或将受益于产能利用率提 高以及产品结构升级带来的盈利能力改善。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 31,605 | 35,392 | 41,999 | 48,933 | 57,802 | | (+/-)% | 37.1% | 12.0% | 18.7% | 16.5% | 18.1% | | 净利润（归母） | 939 | 1,207 | ...

结构分化，重视成长 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——食品饮料板块 2024 年报&2025 一季报总结 | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 李美仪(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880513120002 | S0880525040022 | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 食品饮料板块 2024 年收入、净利润同比+2%、+4%，25Q1 收入、净利润同比+1%、 +0.2%，整体降速。其中白酒板块低增、龙头突出，大众品表现分化、结构性增长。 投资要点： 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：1）白酒：发展更加理性，注重高质量发展，头部企业增 长持续性和确定性相对较强，建议增持动销较好标的山西汾酒、今 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.06 国内业务稳健，海外业务持续改善 歌力思(603808) ——歌力思 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 | [table_Authors] 盛开(分析师) | 赵博(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880525040044 | S0880524070004 | | | | 本报告导读： 2024 年国内业务经营稳健，海外业务亏损拖累业绩；2025Q1 海外业务企稳改善， 同时汇兑收益等增厚利润。 投资要点： 纺织服装业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 2,915 | 3,036 | 3,201 | 3,397 | 3,601 | | (+/-)% | 21.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6 ...

锦纶销量向好，期待可再生项目放量 台华新材(603055) [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——台华新材 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 | [table_Authors] 盛开(分析师) | 赵博(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 14.14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880525040044 | S0880524070004 | | | 本报告导读： 2024 年锦纶长丝靓丽高增，坯布和面料销售向好；2025Q1 锦纶量增加减，政府补 贴增厚利润，可再生项目于 2025 年持续爬坡，有望逐步贡献业绩增量。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 5,094 | 7,120 | 8,583 | 9,814 | 10,721 | | (+/- ...

科技内需引领，中游周期回暖 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 2025 年转债一季报专题 登记编号 S0880522120006 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 本报告导读： 2025Q1 消费和成长板块归母净利润增速领先，周期和金融板块归母净利润增速小幅 转正。具体来看，中游周期、部分消费和成长行业业绩增速普遍改善，农林牧渔、 家电、汽车、电子、非银保持高速增长。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.06 021-38676666 专 题 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 证 [Table_Summary] 周期板块中，建议增持具备矿产资源优势的国城转债、华友转债， 经营趋势向好的广大转债，受益于半导体材料国产替代的东材转债、 鼎龙转债、安集转债、正帆转债，受益于机器人、AI 产业趋势加速 的科利转债和博 23 转债，以及受益于消费需求复苏和国产替代的珀 莱转债；消费板块中，建议增持农林牧渔转债，包括牧原、巨星、 温氏、希望转 2 和禾丰转债等，以及宠物食品龙头中宠转 2、区域 乳制品龙头新乳转 2 和汽车零部件生产商保隆转债；成长板块中， 建议增持 ...

从"五一"期间的新增信息推演，债市震荡如何破局 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 经济和政策预示债市短期震荡，后续债市震荡破局关键在于广谱利率调降，重点关 注 5 月中下旬买断式逆回购窗口期。 投资要点： | | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 藏多(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040116 | | | 孙越(研究助理) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880123070142 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 市 场 策 略 周 市场策略周报 1. 五一期间的新增信息预示债市怎样的破局节奏？ 报 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 [Table_Summary] 五一期间债市需关注的三个主要新增信息：1）中美关税表态边际变 化，海外风险资产大涨。5 月 2 日中国商务部表示"…美方高层多 次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判…对此，中方 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.04 外销全面增长，海外盈利有所改善 海信家电(000921) ——海信家电 2025Q1 财报点评 | | | | | ——海信家电 | 2025Q1 财报点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 谢丛睿(分析师) | 李汉颖(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 42.00 | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880523090004 | S0880524110001 | | | 本报告导读： 公司发布 25Q1 季报，外销维持高增趋势，盈利能力全面改善，看好公司在海外自 主品牌成长下的盈利进一步提升。 | 股东权益（百万元） | 16,565 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.95 | | 市净率（现价） | 2.3 | | 净负债率 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [12][20]. Core Insights - The company's revenue has declined, primarily due to a reduction in digital marketing business, while profit remains relatively resilient. Future focus will be on the recovery of business operations and the implementation of poker production capacity and AI enhancements across various business lines [4][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.46, 1.55, and 1.63 yuan, respectively, which have been adjusted downwards from previous estimates due to declines in marketing and gaming businesses. The target price has been revised to 35.04 yuan, down from 38.96 yuan [12][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 24.04% year-on-year. The digital marketing segment saw a significant decline of 40.25%, contributing to the overall revenue drop [6][12]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company was 539 million yuan, down 4.17% year-on-year. Despite the revenue decline, the overall profit margin improved across various business segments [6][12]. - **Gross Margins**: The gross margins for digital marketing, gaming, and poker businesses were reported at 7.76%, 96.15%, and 30.40%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [12][13]. - **Cost Management**: Marketing, management, and R&D expenses have decreased, maintaining stable expense ratios of 8.04%, 8.36%, and 5.72% [12][13]. Business Development - The company is focusing on enhancing its leading position in the poker industry by advancing the construction of a production base with an annual capacity of 600 million decks of cards, expected to be operational by early 2027 [12][13]. - The company is also exploring business and technological innovations, including the development of a short video center and AI-driven enhancements in gaming and marketing sectors [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, focusing on the development of nuts and sunflower seeds, with strong performance in overseas and direct sales channels. However, the profitability faced significant pressure in Q1 2025, awaiting recovery in subsequent periods [2][10] - The company reported a revenue of 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, with a gross margin rising by 2.02 percentage points to 28.78% [10] - The report revises the EPS forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.25 yuan and 1.71 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 EPS at 1.93 yuan [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 68.06 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth expected in subsequent years [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 803 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 630 million yuan in 2025, followed by recovery to 975 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 14.5% in 2023, increasing to 15.5% by 2027 [4] Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 23.89 yuan and 37.50 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 12.085 billion yuan [5] - The report indicates a current price of 23.89 yuan, with a target price set at 28.13 yuan per share [10] Sales Performance - The company’s sales in the sunflower seed segment reached 4.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.60%, while the nut segment achieved 1.924 billion yuan, up 9.74% [10] - Direct sales channels showed a significant increase of 38.29% year-on-year, contributing 1.462 billion yuan to revenue [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 39.96 CNY per share [5][11]. Core Insights - The company faced performance pressure in 2024 but has shown signs of recovery in Q1 2025. The overseas and innovation businesses have become significant growth pillars, and the future development is promising, especially with the emphasis on AI [2][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 92.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.98 billion CNY, a decrease of 15.1%. However, in Q1 2025, revenue reached 18.53 billion CNY, up 4.01%, and net profit was 2.04 billion CNY, up 6.41% [11]. - The combined revenue from overseas and innovation businesses exceeded 50% of total revenue for the first time in 2024, indicating a shift in the company's growth strategy [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials show a steady increase in revenue from 89.34 billion CNY in 2023 to 117.62 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [4][12]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 11.98 billion CNY in 2024 to 17.39 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.30 CNY in 2024 to 1.88 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28 times for 2025 [11][12]. Business Performance - The company's main business segments, including PBG, EBG, and SMBG, experienced revenue declines in 2024, but the overseas and innovation segments showed strong growth, with overseas revenue at 25.99 billion CNY, up 8.39%, and innovation revenue at 22.48 billion CNY, up 21.19% [11]. - The AI initiatives are expected to enhance the company's capabilities, with advancements in multi-modal algorithms and applications in various sectors such as traffic congestion diagnosis and supply chain optimization [11].