计算机周观点第 34 期：中美大模型竞赛 白热化，国内 AI 应用政策红利释放 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 杨蒙(分析师) | 021-23185700 | yangmeng@gtht.com | S0880525040072 | | 钟明翰(研究助理) | 021-38031383 | zhongminghan@gtht.com | S0880124070047 | 本报告导读： 本周，国内外大模型集中发布，重点提升 Agent 与多模态能力；国家发展改革委等 部门发布关于加快招标投标领域人工智能推广应用的实施意见。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 计算机《君逸数码战略投资并签约银河通用机器 人》2026.02.13 计算机《Seedance2.0 发布，AI 视频迎来创作平 权与产业奇点》2026.02.11 计算机《从能力领先到入口级产品：阿里押注模 型 ...

本报告导读： 中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升与地 产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [1]. Core Insights - The turning point for the China-Mongolia business has arrived, with the traffic volume at the Ganqimaodu port steadily recovering, short-distance freight rates stabilizing and rising, and the price of Mongolian coking coal continuing to rebound, collectively driving the company's performance into a recovery phase [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Traffic Volume at Ganqimaodu Port**: From February 2 to February 9, the average daily traffic volume was 1,318 vehicles/day (excluding closed days), a decrease of 8.7% week-on-week but an increase of 57.9% year-on-year. Cumulatively, as of 2026, the total traffic volume reached 36,148 vehicles, up 48.1% year-on-year [5]. - **Import and Export Freight Volume**: In February 2026, the freight volume increased by 218% year-on-year to 4.9525 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export volume at Ganqimaodu port was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and a total of 43.0585 million tons for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [5]. - **Short-Distance Freight Rates**: In the first half of 2025, short-distance freight rates averaged a decrease of 34.5% year-on-year due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, with demand recovering, the rates stabilized in the range of 60-70 yuan/ton. As of 2026, the average short-distance freight rate was 66 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0.0% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [5]. - **Recovery of China-Mongolia Business**: In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.90%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 6.570 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of 874 million yuan, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing of net profit decline were primarily due to the recovery of cross-border business and the rise in coking coal prices [5]. - **Long-term Competitive Advantage**: The company has a strong core competitive advantage by strategically positioning itself in key logistics infrastructure at the port and advancing an integrated "goods and trade" business model, effectively consolidating its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 10.75 CNY [6][22]. Core Insights - The company focuses on its duty-free core business, accelerates category expansion, and benefits from policy dividends, leading to expected high growth in performance [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from new duty-free store openings at Hengqin Port and Sanya Island, contributing to revenue growth [4]. - The financial forecast predicts revenues of 39.70 billion CNY, 39.74 billion CNY, and 44.80 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of -1.056 billion CNY, 468 million CNY, and 628 million CNY respectively [17][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Proposal - The report suggests an "Accumulate" rating based on strong growth potential and category expansion [6][22]. - The target price is set at 10.75 CNY, reflecting a 43x PE ratio for 2026 [22]. Company Overview - The company is deepening its layout in the Greater Bay Area and aims to become a national leader in the duty-free sector [24]. - It operates 18 duty-free businesses across various ports, enhancing its national penetration strategy [24]. Financial Forecast - The company expects significant revenue growth in its duty-free segment, driven by increased passenger flow and new product categories [19]. - The financial summary indicates a projected total revenue of 6,997 million CNY for 2023, with a significant increase in gross profit margins expected in the coming years [5][21]. Duty-Free Business Growth - The company has established a strong presence in the duty-free market, with a focus on expanding its product offerings, including electronics and gold [4][34]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of the Hengqin and Gongbei ports, which are expected to drive future growth [4][28]. Policy Benefits - Recent policy changes are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the duty-free market, particularly with the opening of new stores [29]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its experience in various port operations to expand its market share [29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 10.75 CNY [6][22]. Core Insights - The company focuses on its duty-free core business, accelerates category expansion, and benefits from policy dividends, leading to expected high growth in performance [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the establishment of new duty-free stores at Hengqin Port and Sanya Island, contributing to revenue growth [4]. - The company has successfully integrated 51% equity of Zhuhai Duty-Free, establishing a strategic direction centered on duty-free operations [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 6,997 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase of 72.9% from the previous year, followed by a decline in 2024 and 2025 [5][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -390 million CNY in 2023, with a forecasted recovery to 468 million CNY by 2026 [5][21]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin improvement, with projections of 11.8% in 2026 and 14.0% in 2027 [21]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach 39.70 billion CNY in 2025, 39.74 billion CNY in 2026, and 44.80 billion CNY in 2027 [17][19]. - The duty-free business is projected to grow by 15% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 15% in 2027, driven by increased passenger flow and new product categories [19]. Company Overview - The company is a key player in the duty-free market, with a network of 18 duty-free operations across various ports, primarily in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [24][28]. - The company has established a strong competitive position due to its scarce duty-free licenses, which are difficult for new entrants to replicate [28]. - The company has a history of expansion and innovation, having started its duty-free operations in 1980 and continuously adapting to market changes [34][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanhua Futures, with a target price of 30.42 yuan based on a 28x PE valuation for 2026E [14][42]. Core Insights - Nanhua Futures' overseas platform, Honghua International, is a key profit source, benefiting from the growing demand for cross-border risk management and overseas derivative trading as Chinese enterprises expand internationally [2][14]. - The company has a strong first-mover advantage in overseas business, supported by its successful Hong Kong IPO, which enhances its capital base to meet the increasing demand from enterprises going abroad [14][31]. - The rapid increase in overseas client margin is driving profit growth, with overseas financial service revenue expected to rise significantly [36][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Stable Equity, Comprehensive Business, and Deepening Profit Structure - Nanhua Futures is a comprehensive futures company with a foundation in futures brokerage, extending into risk management and wealth management, and focusing on overseas financial services for growth [19][21]. - The company has maintained a high concentration of ownership, with the controlling shareholder holding approximately 69.68% of the shares, which supports long-term strategic investments [19][20]. 2. Strong Demand for Overseas Derivatives and Risk Management - The demand for overseas derivatives is driven by the increasing outbound investment from Chinese enterprises, projected to reach approximately 174.4 billion USD in 2025 [25][27]. - The report highlights that as Chinese companies expand internationally, their need for cross-border hedging and risk management tools will continue to grow [25][30]. 3. Clear First-Mover Advantage in Overseas Business - Nanhua Futures has established a comprehensive network of licenses and memberships across major global financial centers, allowing it to effectively serve clients' cross-market hedging and clearing needs [31][33]. - The company has been acquiring relevant licenses since 2007, creating a unique position among domestic futures companies [31][33]. 4. Rapid Growth in Margin Scale Driving Profit - The overseas business has become the core source of profit for Nanhua Futures, with significant contributions from interest income and commissions [36][39]. - The report indicates that the overseas financial service revenue is expected to reach approximately 6.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a substantial portion coming from interest income [36][39]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 14.3 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 18.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.0 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, and 7.3 billion yuan respectively [14][41]. - The expected growth rates for net profit are +8.7%, +33.1%, and +10.4% for the same period [41][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [1]. Core Insights - The turning point for the China-Mongolia business has arrived, with the traffic volume at the Ganqimaodu port steadily recovering, short-distance freight rates stabilizing and rising, and the price of Mongolian coking coal continuing to rebound, collectively driving the company's performance into a recovery phase [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Traffic Volume at Ganqimaodu Port**: From February 2 to February 9, the average daily traffic volume was 1,318 vehicles/day (excluding closed days), a decrease of 8.7% week-on-week but an increase of 57.9% year-on-year. Cumulatively, as of 2026, the total traffic volume reached 36,148 vehicles, up 48.1% year-on-year [5]. - **Import and Export Freight Volume**: In February 2026, the freight volume increased by 218% year-on-year to 4.9525 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export volume at Ganqimaodu port was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and a total of 43.0585 million tons for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [5]. - **Short-Distance Freight Rates**: In the first half of 2025, short-distance freight rates averaged a decrease of 34.5% due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, with demand recovering, the average short-distance freight rate stabilized in the range of 60-70 yuan/ton. As of 2026, the cumulative average short-distance freight rate was 66 yuan/ton, with an average of 65 yuan/ton from February 2 to February 6, showing no change month-on-month but an increase of 8.3% year-on-year [5]. - **Recovery of China-Mongolia Business**: In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million yuan, a decrease of 4.90% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 6.570 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of 874 million yuan, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing decline in net profit were primarily due to the recovery of cross-border business and the rise in coking coal prices [5]. - **Long-term Competitive Advantage**: The company has a strong core competitive advantage by strategically positioning itself in the core logistics infrastructure of the port and is effectively advancing the "integrated trade and logistics" business model, which consolidates its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The demand for civil aviation during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to be strong, with limited additional flights, leading to a gradual narrowing of passenger growth rates. Ticket prices are anticipated to continue rising year-on-year during and after the holiday period. Coupled with lower oil prices, airline profitability is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, with strong demand expected to set a new historical high for passenger flow. As of February 12, the overall flow of people increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with aviation leading at a growth rate of 5.4% [5][6]. Passenger Flow Analysis - Passenger flow for various transportation modes showed the following year-on-year growth rates: aviation at 5.4%, rail at 2.6%, and road at 2.2%. The first week of travel was impacted by adverse weather, but recovery was noted in the second week as conditions improved [5][6][8]. Airline Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached approximately 2.36 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The growth rate is in line with expectations, although the limited number of additional flights may lead to a slight decrease in growth rates as the holiday approaches [5][8]. Ticket Pricing Trends - The report estimates that domestic load factors increased by about 1 percentage point year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by approximately 1-2%. Despite a 13% year-on-year decrease in jet fuel prices, the net ticket prices are expected to rise, indicating an improvement in airline gross margins [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The upcoming peak season is expected to significantly enhance airline profitability, with the first quarter of 2026 likely to see industry-wide profitability [5][8]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends accumulating shares of key airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, based on their expected performance and market conditions [5][13].

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI year-on-year growth fell to 2.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%[9] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased to 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, also surpassing market expectations of 0.3%[9] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.5%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.3%, aligning with market expectations[9] Core Inflation Insights - The decline in overall inflation was primarily driven by falling energy and food prices, with energy prices dropping 1.5% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease[11] - Super core inflation, excluding food, energy, used cars, and rent, showed significant pressure, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, the highest since September 2022[18] - Core services, excluding energy services, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with notable rebounds in transportation and education services[21] Future Outlook - Future inflation may experience volatility, with potential rebounds in energy prices and used car prices expected in the coming months[23] - The average effective tariff rate in the US was 9.8% as of November 2025, indicating limited tariff increases, which may not significantly impact inflation in the short term[26] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain at two times in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June 2026[26] Risk Factors - Risks include potential geopolitical conflicts leading to surges in oil prices and unexpected changes in tariff or fiscal policies that could drive inflation higher[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, driven by the growth in premium income and stable asset management [5][3]. Core Insights - The growth in premium income is expected to lead to a steady increase in the balance of insurance funds, with a projected year-end balance of CNY 38.5 trillion for 2025, reflecting a 15.7% increase from the beginning of the year [5][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in equity allocation, with total equity and fund assets reaching CNY 5.70 trillion, up CNY 1.60 trillion from the start of the year, accounting for 15.4% of total assets [5][3]. - The bond allocation remains robust, constituting 50.4% of the total assets, indicating that bonds continue to serve as a stabilizing force for insurance companies [5][3]. Summary by Sections Premium Growth and Fund Allocation - The insurance industry is projected to see a premium growth of 7.1% year-on-year in 2025, with life insurance premiums increasing by 8.3% and property insurance premiums by 3.9% [5][3]. - By the end of Q4 2025, the allocation of stocks reached CNY 3.73 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.31 trillion from the beginning of the year, while fund assets totaled CNY 1.97 trillion, reflecting a slight decrease in the last quarter [5][3]. Asset Management Strategy - The report anticipates that the stable long-term interest rates, which are expected to range between 1.79% and 1.90%, along with a mild recovery in the equity market, will positively impact the profitability of insurance companies [5][3]. - The report recommends specific stocks, including China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, and China Life, as favorable investment opportunities within the sector [5][3].