Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - A shares rose, and the TMT sector performed well. It is recommended to have a balanced style allocation, emphasize technology - growth style funds, and also consider domestic - demand value assets [1][3][17] - For stock - hybrid funds, it is optimistic about the technology - growth and domestic - demand directions benefiting from incremental policies and industry event catalysts; for bond funds, it is suggested to focus on medium - duration interest - rate bond products [3][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Past Two - Week Market Review - **A - share Market**: During the pre - holiday week (20260209 - 20260213), A shares continued the previous upward trend. The TMT sector represented by AI applications performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%. The growth style outperformed the value style. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 146.82 billion yuan compared with the previous week. Among the industries, 18 out of 31 industries rose, with the top - performing industries being comprehensive, computer, etc., and the bottom - performing being textile and apparel, food and beverage, etc. [6] - **Bond Market**: In the pre - holiday week, due to loose funds and increased demand for holding bonds during the holiday, the bond market rose. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds generally decreased, and the spreads of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds changed. The main bond indexes rose, and the convertible bond index rose 1.08% [7] - **Overseas Market**: In the past two weeks (20260209 - 20260220), the US stocks fell due to factors such as the Fed official's adjustment of the expected interest - rate cut and concerns about private loans. European markets rose, and Asian - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. The US dollar index fell, and commodity prices such as oil and precious metals rose. [8] Pre - holiday Week Fund Market Review - **Stock - type Funds**: Stock - type funds rose 1.27% overall, with active stock - open funds rising 1.42%, outperforming the index. Some funds heavily invested in artificial intelligence, chip semiconductors and other sectors performed well. Index funds tracking artificial intelligence and film and television themes also performed well [9][10] - **Bond - type Funds**: Bond - type funds rose 0.15% overall, with active bond - open funds rising 0.16%, outperforming the index. Partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity assets in chip semiconductors, media and other sectors performed well, and some pure - bond funds with heavy allocation of medium - short - duration interest - rate bonds also performed well [10] - **QDII Funds**: Equity - type QDII funds rose 1.02% overall, and some funds mainly investing in markets such as Japan and South Korea performed well. QDII bond - type funds rose 0.35% [11] - **Other Funds**: The annualized yield of money funds was 1.20%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds rose 1.40%, and commodity - type funds rose 1.65% [10][12] Future Investment Strategy - **Macro - economy**: In January 2026, the social financing stock growth rate was 8.2%, with government bonds being the main contributor. The credit showed a phenomenon of short - term debt. M1 and M2 growth rates both increased, with M2 reaching a two - year high. The financial data at the beginning of the year showed stable credit and strong currency. In the future, corporate foreign exchange settlement and fiscal efforts are expected to promote domestic liquidity expansion [13][14] - **Stock Market**: The trading heat of hot topics declined, and the space - photovoltaic - related topics strengthened. With the convening of local two sessions and the approaching Spring Festival, the technology - growth and domestic - demand directions are favored [15] - **Bond Market**: There are three possible scenarios for the Fed's subsequent policies. Currently, the risk of US long - term bonds may be accumulating, and the allocation strategy should focus on medium - duration varieties [16] - **Fund Investment**: For stock - hybrid funds, a balanced style allocation is recommended, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and considering domestic - demand value assets; for bond funds, it is suggested to focus on medium - duration interest - rate bond products; money funds have no trending investment opportunities; for commodity funds, gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated [17] Fund Market Latest Developments - **Fund Investment Advisers' Adjustment**: Since the beginning of 2026, fund investment advisers have accelerated the pace of portfolio adjustment. Nearly 178 out of 650 portfolios have been adjusted, increasing the allocation of low - valuation value - type funds. The positions of A - shares and bonds have been increased, and cash, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been reduced [18] - **New Fund Issuance**: Since the beginning of 2026, new fund issuance has been booming. In January, 169 new funds were issued, reaching the highest level since March 2023. Many funds were sold out in one day, and a 7 - billion - level active equity new product appeared. Institutions are preparing for the post - holiday market [19][20] - **Newly Established Funds in the Past Two Weeks**: A total of 64 new funds were established, with an average subscription period of about 16 days and an average raised share of 911 million. The total raised share was 58.33 billion, with Peng'an Antai Interest - rate Bond raising the largest share of 6 billion [21] - **Next Week's Fund Dividends**: 20 funds will conduct equity registration. Tianhong CSI Central - State - owned Enterprises' Dividend 50 Index is worth noting, with a dividend of 0.1 yuan per 10 shares [22]

股 票 研 究 汽车行业周报（2025/2/6-2025/2/13） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 卢雨涵(研究助理) | 010-83939828 | luyuhan@gtht.com | S0880125100008 | 速腾聚创 25 年大幅减亏，特斯拉首辆 Cybercab 下线 [Table_Industry] 汽车 本报告导读： 近一周，申万汽车指数上涨 2%，新能源整车指数相对持平，汽车零部件指数上涨 2%，商用车指数上涨 4%。速腾聚创 25 年大幅减亏，特斯拉首辆 Cybercab下线。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《全新理想 L9 Livis引领线控底盘新阶段》 2026.02.08 汽车《AI 应用重要阵地，Robotaxi 还看中国》 2026.02.04 汽车《特斯拉加速 AI 转型，将发布 ...

债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

本报告导读： 上周(2 月 13-19 日)成交回落。26 年春节黄金周(2 月 16-22 日)成交相对 25 年春节 黄金周(1 月 28 日-2 月 3 日)回升。全年回稳趋势不变，维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《第 7周成交回落，行业定位积极有利于市 场复苏》2026.02.16 房地产《租赁住房 REITs 投资体系》2026.02.13 房地产《第 6周成交分化，房企减少拿地改善新房 市场预期》2026.02.08 第 8 周成交回落、春节黄金周回升，整体回稳不变 [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 涂力磊(分析师) 021-23185710 tulilei@gtht.com S0880525040101 谢皓宇(分析师) 010-83939826 xiehaoyu@gtht.com S0880518010002 谢盐(分析师) 021-23185696 xieyan@gtht.com S088052504 ...

企业短贷回暖，存款搬家趋势持续 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 银行角度看社融 202601 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 马婷婷(分析师) 021-23185608 matingting@gtht.com S0880525100001 李润凌(分析师) 021-23183283 lirunling@gtht.com S0880525120003 本报告导读： 26 年 1 月社融信贷数据发布，社融同比多增，主要由政府债拉动。信贷方面，企业 短贷增长回暖，中长贷仍待修复；居民短贷季节性改善，按揭需求仍较弱。居民存 款同比少增，非银存款持续多增，存款搬家趋势或仍延续。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 社融结构拆分： 1、社融增速：2026 年 1 月新口径下社融增速 8.2%，较上月下降 0.1pc，剔除政府债券后的社融增速 5.9%，较上月下降 0.2pc。 风险提示：经济修复不及预期；银行资产质量恶化超预期。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《从流动性总量视角看待"存款搬家"》 2026.02.11 2、社融结构：1 月单月新增社融 7.2 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

25 年业绩扭亏为盈，海外储能业务弹性较大 固德威(688390) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 吴志鹏(分析师) | 021-23215736 | wuzhipeng@gtht.com | S0880525070004 | 本报告导读： 25 年业绩扭亏为盈，26-28 年具备较高成长性。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 7,353 | 6,738 | 8,455 | 11,987 | 14,472 | | (+/-)% | 56.1% | -8.4% | 25.5% | 41.8% | 20.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 852 | -62 | 143 | 717 ...

白银：不可或缺的 AI 金属 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 白银行业深度专题 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S0880525040114 | 本报告导读： 白银两大属性形成强烈共振：商品属性上，白银工业需求占比升至近 60%，新兴领 域成为增长核心；金融属性上，全球流动性宽松环境下，与黄金形成联动，成为资 金避险优选。长期视角看，光伏、新能源汽车、人工智能等领域用银量增加，供需 缺口或将持续存在，为白银价格上涨提供动力。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 有色金属《关注企稳后的布局机会》2026.02.09 有色金属《鹰派扰动，价格 ...

量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260220） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 中盘股或先开启上行趋势 本报告导读： 从技术面来看，高频资金流模型继续显示各大宽基指数信号依旧为负向，但偏向左 侧布局的情绪模型信号转正。结合春节后的日历效应，我们认为，以中证 500 指数 为首的中盘股或先开启上行趋势。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 曹君豪(分析师) | | | 021-23185657 | | | caojunhao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040094 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 周 报 高频选股因子周报（20260209-20260213） 2026.02.16 低频选股因子周报（2026.02.06-2026.02.13） 2026.02.14 绝对收益产品及策略周报（260202-260206） 2026.02.11 大 ...

特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) 本报告导读： 对等关税被最高法院推翻后，特朗普政府会寻找更加坚实的法律依据重建关税框架， 我们认为再通胀的风险依然较高，新税率和退税纷争使得政策不确定性有所抬升。 投资要点： 对等关税被推翻，并非去通胀，我们认为再通胀的风险依然较高： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.21 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 M2 增速：创新高的背后 2026.02.14 超级核心通胀压力仍存 2026.02.14 非农超预期：6 月前或暂停降息 2026.02.12 PPI 修复继续：输入性影响增加 2026.02.11 黄金大跌：后续如何看 ...