Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics in the livestock sector following the drop in temperatures in northern regions. It highlights the potential for price recovery in the pork market as winter demand approaches [5] - The report notes that the central economic work conference has prioritized food security, leading to an optimistic outlook for the recovery of planting sector sentiment, particularly for corn prices [3] - In the pet food sector, the concentration of brands is high, with significant growth expected for leading domestic brands in the market [4] Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The report discusses the ongoing supply-demand battle in the livestock sector, particularly in the context of lower pork prices. It notes that the average price of live pigs has been fluctuating at low levels, with a recent average price of 11.27 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.79% [11][12] - The report indicates that the utilization rate of pig farms has returned to levels seen at the beginning of October, suggesting a potential increase in supply. However, demand has shown signs of recovery, which may lead to price stabilization [5] Planting Sector - The report highlights that corn prices have been on an upward trend, reaching 2357 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4.5%. The central economic work conference's focus on maintaining reasonable prices for key agricultural products is expected to support corn price stability [3] Pet Sector - The report outlines that the sales proportions of pet food, supplies, and healthcare products are 43%, 28%, and 9% respectively. The concentration ratio for pet food has increased significantly, with the top 10 brands' market share rising from 30% to 40% within the year [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group. For the post-cycle sector, Kexin Biotechnology and Haida Group are suggested. In the agricultural products chain, stocks like Morning Light Bio and Noposion are recommended. In the pet sector, stocks such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are highlighted [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The upcoming New Year's holiday is expected to drive significant consumer spending, particularly in travel and leisure sectors [2][3]. - Key recommendations include travel agencies like Ctrip Group and Tongcheng Travel, hotel chains such as Huazhu Group and Jinjiang Hotels, and attractions like Changbai Mountain [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable increase in hotel bookings for popular cities, with a threefold growth during the New Year's holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Travel and Tourism - The report emphasizes optimism for travel and leisure due to the New Year's holiday, recommending specific stocks in the OTA and hotel sectors [3][4]. - Ctrip Group and Tongcheng Travel are highlighted as preferred stocks in the OTA segment [3]. Hospitality - Recommended hotel stocks include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels, with a focus on their growth potential during the holiday season [3][4]. Attractions - Changbai Mountain is recommended as a key investment in the attractions sector, with additional attention on Emei Mountain and Three Gorges Tourism [3][4]. Jewelry and Retail - In the jewelry sector, stocks such as Lao Pu Gold, Cai Bai Shares, and Chow Tai Fook are recommended, indicating strong growth potential [3][4]. Dividend Stocks - The report identifies dividend-paying stocks like Sumida and Chongqing Department Store as attractive options for investors [3][4]. AI and Education - Stocks in the AI and education sectors, including Konnate Optical and Chalk, are also recommended, reflecting the growing intersection of technology and education [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2][3] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with stronger policies expected next year to help stabilize market expectations [2][3] - New housing transaction volumes in major cities showed mixed results, with a 7.21% decrease week-on-week and a 33.3% decrease year-on-year for the week ending December 11, 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 30 cities from December 1 to 11, 2025, was 3 million square meters, reflecting a 38.5% increase compared to the same period in November 2025, but a 31% decrease year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - New home transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.97 million square meters for the week ending December 11, 2025, down 7.21% week-on-week and down 33.3% year-on-year [3] - First-tier cities saw a transaction area of 470,000 square meters, down 13.6% week-on-week and down 44% year-on-year [3] - Second-tier cities recorded a transaction area of 1.12 million square meters, down 8.48% week-on-week and down 22% year-on-year [3] - Third-tier cities experienced a transaction area of 370,000 square meters, up 7.37% week-on-week but down 43.7% year-on-year [3] Land Transactions - The land supply area was 2,426 million square meters, with a transaction area of 2,741 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sale ratio of 0.89 [3] - The total land transfer amount was 83.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative land supply area of 87,524 million square meters for the year, down 13% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities increased to 24.54 months, up 6.64% month-on-month and down 12.09% year-on-year [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing transaction volume in 24 cities increased by 2.67% week-on-week but decreased by 33.97% year-on-year for the week ending December 11, 2025 [3]

策 略 研 究 ——A 股策略周报 本报告导读： 政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛" 将重振旗鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 投资要点： | 跨年攻势已经开始 | | [Table_Authors] | 方奕(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 021-38031658 | | | 股策略周报 ——A | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛" | | | | | 将重振旗鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | | | 021-38038662 | | 投资要点： | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | | [Table_Summary] 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。 | 登记编号 | S0880524080 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [7]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a rebound in public and business demand, with expectations for ticket price profitability to rise by 2026, suggesting a strategic investment during this super cycle [3][7]. - In the oil shipping sector, freight rates remain high, and the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine negotiations is expected to be limited, indicating a positive outlook for future market conditions [3][7]. - The airport duty-free segment anticipates increased competition among leading domestic and foreign companies, which is expected to drive growth in sales [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - Recent recovery in public and business demand is noted, with a focus on state-owned enterprises reducing "involution" competition. The aviation sector entered a traditional off-peak season from September, with public and business demand being a key factor influencing ticket prices. Ticket prices have shown a year-on-year increase due to the release of suppressed demand from the summer travel season [7]. - The report forecasts that by December, public and business passenger flow will increase, with ticket prices expected to continue rising year-on-year, although the growth rate may narrow. The report anticipates a significant reduction in losses by Q4 2025, with a full-year turnaround expected [7]. - Recommendations include major airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [7]. Oil Shipping - Freight rates are expected to maintain a high level, with the impact of U.S. sanctions on shadow fleets being a significant factor. The report highlights that recent increases in oil production from the Middle East and South America have driven VLCC TCE rates to rise, with Q4 2025 profits projected to reach a ten-year high [7]. - The report suggests that while seasonal factors may affect short-term freight rates, the overall upward trend for the year remains intact. The global increase in oil production is expected to drive demand for oil shipping beyond expectations [7]. - Recommended companies in this sector include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, China Merchants Jinling, and China Ship Leasing [7]. Airport Duty-Free - The report discusses a new round of duty-free contract adjustments at Shanghai Airport, anticipating that competition among leading domestic and foreign companies will drive sales growth. The new bidding results indicate a shift in the contract model, which may stabilize or enhance airport duty-free revenues [7]. - The introduction of foreign competitors and a revised commission structure are expected to improve the operational enthusiasm of duty-free operators, potentially leading to increased sales [7]. - Recommendations include Shanghai Airport and Beijing Capital International Airport [7].

Domestic Macro - The People's Bank of China and the Monetary Authority of Macao upgraded the currency swap arrangement to 50 billion RMB to support financial stability and economic development [6][16] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for steady progress and quality improvement in the economic work for 2026, proposing "eight persistences" [6][16] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the flexible use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts, to stabilize investment and address excessive competition [6][16] Industry Policy - The State Council held a meeting focusing on energy conservation and carbon reduction, and the Financial Regulatory Authority announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments [7][17] - The National Medical Insurance Administration released a new drug list, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, expanding medication coverage [7][18] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the price fluctuation limit for silver futures contracts to 15% to mitigate potential market risks [7][17] Local Policy - Shenzhen introduced new housing fund policies to ease withdrawal conditions and support simultaneous loans and withdrawals [8][19] - Sichuan Province launched a three-year plan to promote more companies to go public and facilitate mergers and acquisitions [8][19] - Ningxia issued twelve new policies to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market, focusing on housing consumption and financial support [8][19] Overseas Dynamics - The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%, marking the fourth rate cut of the year [9][20] - The United States released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting military deployments in the Western Hemisphere to address immigration and drug trafficking issues [9][20] - The European Union reached a preliminary agreement to strengthen scrutiny of foreign direct investments, granting more review and intervention powers [9][22]

美联储如期降息，行业继续共振上行 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S0880525040114 | 本报告导读 ...

——国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 49 期） 本报告导读： 商品与服务消费表现分化，投资端延续偏弱格局，生产有所改善。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费呈现结构分化，商品消费整体表现偏弱， 汽车销售热度有所回落，高端白酒价格延续下行，纺服需求虽季节 性回升但不及往年同期；服务消费中人口流动相对平稳，上海游乐 消费淡季表现亮眼。投资端延续偏弱格局，基建开工建设放缓，地 产新房成交边际回落。进出口方面，港口离港船舶数呈季节性回升， 国内外运价因需求差异分化延续。生产端或因年末赶工以回升为主， 库存港口煤炭持续季节性补库，化工链库存多数去化。物价方面， 工业品价格回落，CPI 仍显分化。流动性层面，美元指数持续回落， 资金利率小幅抬升。 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期 | 内需仍待提振 | [Table_Authors] | 李林芷(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ——国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 期） 49 | | 021-23185646 | | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 ...

理解重要会议后的债市波动：三个层次的分析 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： "温和"的中性偏多，短期中对债市配置盘入场的推动力有限。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251208- 251212） 2025.12.13 超长债上行期：保险买入未放量 2025.12.09 12 月首周大行融出规模显著回升 2025.12.09 降息预期下，美债长端承压会持续多久 2025.12.09 破位还是触底？T、TL 合约分化 20251208 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.14 优化集采，支持医药产业创新发展 [Table_Industry] 医药 2025 年全国医疗保障工作会议点评 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈铭(分析师) | 021-23219164 | chenming7@gtht.com | S0880525100004 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 全国医疗保障工作会议召开，我们认为 2026 年国家医保局将继续推进优化集采政 策，推动生育保险、长护险发展，发挥医保战略购买作用，支持创新药产业发展。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 医药《政策拉动国内市场有效复苏，医疗设备招 采保持快速增长》2025.12.10 医药《医保战略购买引导医药产业创新发展》 2025.12.07 医药《药价透明公开，促进国内创新药全球发 展》2025 ...