Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI year-on-year growth fell to 2.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%[9] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased to 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, also surpassing market expectations of 0.3%[9] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.5%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.3%, aligning with market expectations[9] Core Inflation Insights - The decline in overall inflation was primarily driven by falling energy and food prices, with energy prices dropping 1.5% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease[11] - Super core inflation, excluding food, energy, used cars, and rent, showed significant pressure, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, the highest since September 2022[18] - Core services, excluding energy services, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with notable rebounds in transportation and education services[21] Future Outlook - Future inflation may experience volatility, with potential rebounds in energy prices and used car prices expected in the coming months[23] - The average effective tariff rate in the US was 9.8% as of November 2025, indicating limited tariff increases, which may not significantly impact inflation in the short term[26] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain at two times in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June 2026[26] Risk Factors - Risks include potential geopolitical conflicts leading to surges in oil prices and unexpected changes in tariff or fiscal policies that could drive inflation higher[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, driven by the growth in premium income and stable asset management [5][3]. Core Insights - The growth in premium income is expected to lead to a steady increase in the balance of insurance funds, with a projected year-end balance of CNY 38.5 trillion for 2025, reflecting a 15.7% increase from the beginning of the year [5][3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in equity allocation, with total equity and fund assets reaching CNY 5.70 trillion, up CNY 1.60 trillion from the start of the year, accounting for 15.4% of total assets [5][3]. - The bond allocation remains robust, constituting 50.4% of the total assets, indicating that bonds continue to serve as a stabilizing force for insurance companies [5][3]. Summary by Sections Premium Growth and Fund Allocation - The insurance industry is projected to see a premium growth of 7.1% year-on-year in 2025, with life insurance premiums increasing by 8.3% and property insurance premiums by 3.9% [5][3]. - By the end of Q4 2025, the allocation of stocks reached CNY 3.73 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.31 trillion from the beginning of the year, while fund assets totaled CNY 1.97 trillion, reflecting a slight decrease in the last quarter [5][3]. Asset Management Strategy - The report anticipates that the stable long-term interest rates, which are expected to range between 1.79% and 1.90%, along with a mild recovery in the equity market, will positively impact the profitability of insurance companies [5][3]. - The report recommends specific stocks, including China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, and China Life, as favorable investment opportunities within the sector [5][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that pig prices in 2026 will be lower than market expectations, leading the industry into a significant loss phase. This will mark a major capacity reduction cycle, which is expected to result in substantial stock price increases for the sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Price Trends in 2025 - The average pig price for 2025 was 13.7 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly in the fourth quarter where prices ranged between 11.5 and 12.5 yuan/kg [7]. 2. 2026 Pig Price Forecast - The report predicts that the average pig price for 2026 will likely be below 12 yuan/kg, with the second half of the year not showing improvement over the first half [17][32]. 3. Capacity Reduction Cycle - The current capacity reduction cycle is expected to last approximately three years, marking the largest cycle since 2021. This cycle is characterized by a more equitable competition among all farming entities due to the diminished impact of African swine fever [34][38]. 4. Stock Price Increase Potential - The report suggests that the stock prices in the pig farming sector will experience significant upward movement driven by the ongoing capacity reduction. Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological [3][4]. 5. Supply Dynamics - The report emphasizes that an increase in the number of breeding sows does not necessarily correlate with an increase in supply. The actual supply has been significantly boosted by improved production efficiency and a reduction in loss rates since the decline of African swine fever [20][23]. 6. Important Time Points - Two critical time points are highlighted: post-Chinese New Year, where prices typically drop, and around May/June when piglet prices are expected to fall below cost, accelerating capacity reduction [4][44].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Enhance the performance of the CSI 300 index by selecting stocks with superior characteristics[5][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks from the CSI 300 index - Apply quantitative factors to enhance stock selection - Construct the portfolio based on the enhanced stock selection - **Model Evaluation**: The model aims to outperform the CSI 300 index by leveraging quantitative factors[5][13] 2. Model Name: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Enhance the performance of the CSI 500 index by selecting stocks with superior characteristics[5][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks from the CSI 500 index - Apply quantitative factors to enhance stock selection - Construct the portfolio based on the enhanced stock selection - **Model Evaluation**: The model aims to outperform the CSI 500 index by leveraging quantitative factors[5][13] 3. Model Name: CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Enhance the performance of the CSI 1000 index by selecting stocks with superior characteristics[5][13] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks from the CSI 1000 index - Apply quantitative factors to enhance stock selection - Construct the portfolio based on the enhanced stock selection - **Model Evaluation**: The model aims to outperform the CSI 1000 index by leveraging quantitative factors[5][13] Model Backtesting Results CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 1.51%[13] - **Monthly Return**: 0.01%[15] - **Annual Return**: 6.86%[15] - **Excess Return**: 6.20%[15] CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 2.28%[13] - **Monthly Return**: 0.59%[15] - **Annual Return**: 11.77%[15] - **Excess Return**: 0.60%[15] CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - **Weekly Return**: 2.32%[13] - **Monthly Return**: -0.14%[15] - **Annual Return**: 11.84%[15] - **Excess Return**: 3.81%[15] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Market Capitalization - **Factor Construction Idea**: Differentiate stocks based on their market capitalization[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks by market capitalization - Construct long and short portfolios based on the top and bottom 10% of stocks - **Factor Evaluation**: Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks[47] 2. Factor Name: Price-to-Book Ratio (PB) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Differentiate stocks based on their PB ratio[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks by PB ratio - Construct long and short portfolios based on the top and bottom 10% of stocks - **Factor Evaluation**: High PB stocks outperformed low PB stocks[47] 3. Factor Name: Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE_TTM) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Differentiate stocks based on their PE ratio[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks by PE ratio - Construct long and short portfolios based on the top and bottom 10% of stocks - **Factor Evaluation**: High PE stocks outperformed low PE stocks[47] Factor Backtesting Results Market Capitalization Factor - **Weekly Long-Short Return**: -0.69%[47] - **Monthly Long-Short Return**: 3.16%[47] - **Annual Long-Short Return**: 6.82%[48] Price-to-Book Ratio (PB) Factor - **Weekly Long-Short Return**: -2.58%[47] - **Monthly Long-Short Return**: -0.94%[47] - **Annual Long-Short Return**: -2.39%[48] Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE_TTM) Factor - **Weekly Long-Short Return**: -2.15%[47] - **Monthly Long-Short Return**: -1.03%[47] - **Annual Long-Short Return**: -0.82%[48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to RMB 600 million for aviation engine capacity construction projects, reflecting strong market demand in the global aviation engine supply chain and the company's proactive expansion in both international and domestic markets [2][13] - The company is expected to achieve continuous high-quality improvement in operational capabilities due to its focus on enhancing aviation engine production capacity [2][13] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 544 million in 2023 to RMB 1,411 million in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from RMB 90 million in 2023 to RMB 279 million in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 349.6% in 2024 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.35 in 2023 to RMB 1.08 in 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 8.6% in 2023 to 18.4% in 2027 [4] Target Price - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 61.65, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 76.48 times for 2026 [13] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately RMB 11.492 billion, with a total share capital of 260 million shares [7] - The stock price has ranged from RMB 14.92 to RMB 44.28 over the past 52 weeks [7] Business Development - The company is leveraging advanced manufacturing techniques and strong customer relationships to expand its business, particularly in the aviation engine sector, where it supplies major global manufacturers [13] - The company is also entering the orthopedic implant market, which is expected to see increased demand due to an aging population and rising joint replacement rates [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to RMB 600 million for aviation engine capacity construction projects, reflecting strong market demand in the global aviation engine supply chain and the company's proactive expansion in both international and domestic markets [2][13]. - The company is expected to achieve continuous high-quality improvement in operational capabilities due to its focus on enhancing aviation engine production capacity [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 544 million in 2023 to RMB 1,411 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from RMB 90 million in 2023 to RMB 279 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 33.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.35 in 2023 to RMB 1.08 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 8.6% in 2023 to 18.4% in 2027 [4]. Target Price and Valuation - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 61.65, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 76.48 times for 2026 [13]. - The current market price is within a 52-week range of RMB 14.92 to RMB 44.28, with a total market capitalization of RMB 11,492 million [7][8]. Business Development and Strategy - The company is leveraging advanced manufacturing techniques and strong customer relationships to expand its business, particularly in the aviation engine sector, where it supplies major global manufacturers [13]. - The company is also entering the orthopedic implant market, which is expected to see increased demand due to aging populations and rising joint replacement rates [13].

Group 1: Social Financing - In January 2026, the social financing stock growth rate was 8.2% (previous value 8.3%), with new social financing of 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year-on-year[7] - Government bonds contributed significantly with an increase of 976.4 billion yuan, up 283.1 billion yuan year-on-year[10] - Loans remained relatively stable with an increase of 4.9 trillion yuan, down 319.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and the loan balance decreased to 6.1% year-on-year (previous value 6.4%)[7] Group 2: Credit Trends - In January, new credit was 4.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 420 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate and household loans remaining stable[13] - Notably, there is a trend of short-term debt: corporate short-term loans increased by 310 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 280 billion yuan[13] - This indicates a conservative outlook for medium to long-term economic conditions among the private sector, while short-term activity remains robust[13] Group 3: Monetary Supply - M2 growth rate reached a two-year high at 9.0% (previous value 8.5%), while M1 growth was 4.9% (previous value 3.8%)[15] - Household deposits decreased by 339 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 281.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant capital inflow[15] - The rise in M2 is attributed to expectations of currency appreciation and a historic wave of cross-border capital repatriation[18] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The trend of corporate currency settlement is expected to continue, potentially driving further domestic liquidity expansion[25] - A risk to monitor is the slower-than-expected recovery of the private sector's balance sheets, which may impact economic stability[30]

投资要点： | 风险提示：在建项目不及预期、成本端剧烈波动风险。 | | --- | 公 司 研 究 坚定推进"7 加 5"战略布局，智能制造加速出海 玲珑轮胎(601966) 玲珑轮胎跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | | 本报告导读： 公司坚定推进"7+5"战略布局，智能制造加速出海。 基础化工 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 20.10 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | 14.92 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 14.24-18.23 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group, with a target price adjusted to HKD 13.3 based on a FY2027 PE of 11x [11][13]. Core Insights - Lenovo Group is transitioning from a PC giant to a core hub of the AI ecosystem, driven by a closed-loop ecosystem of terminals, computing power, and services, resulting in significant revenue and profit growth [3][11]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 157.5 billion in FY26Q3, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 36% [11]. - AI-related revenue surged by 72% year-on-year, now accounting for 32% of total revenue, showcasing the effectiveness of Lenovo's mixed AI strategy [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E are adjusted to USD 80.5 billion, USD 87.8 billion, and USD 94.8 billion, respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits projected at USD 1.74 billion, USD 1.95 billion, and USD 2.11 billion [5][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong operating profit growth across all three major business segments, with IDG, ISG, and SSG all achieving double-digit growth [11]. - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 14.7 in 2024 to 7.1 in 2028, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to peers [5][15]. Business Segments Performance - IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) reported revenue of RMB 110 billion, with a 14% year-on-year growth, maintaining operational profit growth despite rising core component costs [11]. - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) achieved a record revenue of RMB 36.7 billion, with over 31% year-on-year growth, driven by high double-digit growth in AI server revenue [11]. - SSG (Solutions and Services Group) led with a 22.5% operating profit margin, marking the scaling phase of AI services, with non-hardware-bound service revenue reaching 60% [11]. AI Strategy and Market Position - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy aligns with industry trends, focusing on AI PCs, AI servers, and edge computing, with a dual product system for personal and enterprise AI solutions [11]. - The company has established a closed-loop ecosystem for AI, collaborating with major players like NVIDIA to enhance its market position [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors [2][5] Core Views - Great Wall Motors reported a revenue of 69.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.3 billion yuan. The company is entering a new vehicle cycle and has a clear global strategy, justifying the "Buy" rating [2][11] - The company launched the world's first native AI all-powertrain vehicle platform, "Guiyuan," which aims to enhance efficiency and competitiveness in the market [11] - The "Ecological Overseas" strategy is progressing effectively, with the completion of a factory in Brazil, expected to produce 50,000 vehicles annually [11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 222.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10% [11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 9.918 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.9% year-on-year [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.16 yuan, with a target price of 24.64 yuan based on a 14x PE ratio for 2026 [11] - The company achieved a total sales volume of 400,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a 5% increase year-on-year [11] - The overseas sales volume reached 172,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, marking a 33% increase year-on-year [11] Market Data - The current market capitalization of Great Wall Motors is 176.891 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 8.558 billion shares [6] - The stock price has fluctuated between 20.44 yuan and 27.52 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6] Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.3% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.84 [4][12] - The net asset value per share is estimated at 10.10 yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.0 [7][12]