第三，产业链：多元化重构。美国加大从越南、墨西哥、爱尔兰、 瑞士以及泰国等地区进口，基本对冲了中国下降的份额；中国对越 南、泰国、俄罗斯、马来西亚、墨西哥、印尼、巴西、阿联酋以及 印度等加大出口，完全对冲了对美出口的下降。具体商品来看，美 国自中国进口的重点产品都面临实际关税的大幅增加，美国自中国 进口依赖度明显下降，中国对美国出口份额也明显下降。美国加大 自北美和东南亚的进口来对冲中国下滑的份额，中国则加大对东南 亚和中东的出口来对冲美国下滑的份额。 风险提示：海外风险上升，数据测算存在偏差。 | | 021-23154149 | | --- | --- | | | lijun8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040063 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | 关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相" [Table_Authors] 李俊(分析师) 关税透视研究一 本报告导读： 自美国总统特朗普在 2025 年初提出新一轮关税政策以来，全球贸易已经遭受关税干 扰一年之久。本文拟从美国进口关税视角，全面分析各国、各产品实际落地的关税 水平，并进一步分析关税 ...

宏 观 研 究 "K 型分化"的边际收敛 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) ——2025 年 Q4 美国 GDP 数据点评 本报告导读： 2025Q4 美国经济主要受政府关门拖累，总体韧性犹在，并展现出"K型分化"的收 敛迹象，这明显提升了"再通胀"的概率。关注白宫在推动替代性关税框架的过程 中，对企业关税转嫁行为的影响。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2025 年 Q4 美国经济：受政府关门拖累明显，但韧性犹在 美国经济四季度展现出"K 型分化"的收敛迹象 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.21 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 M2 增速：创新高的背后 2026.02.14 超级核心通胀压力仍 ...

细数 2026 冬奥会多家运动品牌赞助亮点 [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | | | 本报告导读： 我们详细梳理了 2026 冬奥会各运动品牌赞助亮点，发现从 2022 年到 2026 年，冬奥 品牌在赞助范围、设计理念、技术展现等方面实现了全方位升级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 纺织服装业《优质消费布局正当时》2026.02.08 纺织服装业《Coach 品牌势能全面爆发，中国市 场强势领跑，上调全年指引》2026.02.07 纺织服装业《FY26Q3 HOKA 重回高双增速，上 调全年业绩指引》20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the concentrated release of domestic large models, including GLM-5, Doubao Model 2.0, Seedance 2.0, and MiniMax M2.5, alongside rapid iterations of overseas models like GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark and Gemini 3 Deep Think. It emphasizes the release of policies by the National Development and Reform Commission to accelerate the application of AI in the bidding and tendering sector [4][5]. - The domestic large models are advancing in foundational models and multimodal capabilities, with GLM-5 achieving a global ranking of fourth and first in open-source performance. The report notes significant improvements in efficiency and task execution capabilities in the latest models [4][5]. - The report outlines the competitive landscape among tech giants, with OpenAI and Google making substantial advancements in their respective models, enhancing performance in various benchmarks and applications [4][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Large Models - The report discusses the release of several domestic large models, focusing on their capabilities in agent-based applications and multimodal understanding. GLM-5 has been recognized for its open-source performance, while Doubao Model 2.0 and Seedance 2.0 have been upgraded to meet practical application needs [4][5]. Overseas Large Models - The report details the rapid iteration of overseas models, particularly OpenAI's GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark, which is designed for real-time programming and achieves near-instantaneous response speeds. Google’s Gemini 3 Deep Think has also shown significant performance improvements across various challenging benchmarks [4][5]. Policy Developments - The report highlights the government's initiative to empower the entire bidding and tendering process with AI, aiming for comprehensive application coverage by the end of 2026 in select provinces and nationwide by 2027. This initiative is expected to enhance the regulatory framework and market development [4][5].

本报告导读： 中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升与地 产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [1]. Core Insights - The turning point for the China-Mongolia business has arrived, with the traffic volume at the Ganqimaodu port steadily recovering, short-distance freight rates stabilizing and rising, and the price of Mongolian coking coal continuing to rebound, collectively driving the company's performance into a recovery phase [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Traffic Volume at Ganqimaodu Port**: From February 2 to February 9, the average daily traffic volume was 1,318 vehicles/day (excluding closed days), a decrease of 8.7% week-on-week but an increase of 57.9% year-on-year. Cumulatively, as of 2026, the total traffic volume reached 36,148 vehicles, up 48.1% year-on-year [5]. - **Import and Export Freight Volume**: In February 2026, the freight volume increased by 218% year-on-year to 4.9525 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export volume at Ganqimaodu port was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and a total of 43.0585 million tons for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [5]. - **Short-Distance Freight Rates**: In the first half of 2025, short-distance freight rates averaged a decrease of 34.5% year-on-year due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, with demand recovering, the rates stabilized in the range of 60-70 yuan/ton. As of 2026, the average short-distance freight rate was 66 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0.0% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [5]. - **Recovery of China-Mongolia Business**: In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.90%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 6.570 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of 874 million yuan, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing of net profit decline were primarily due to the recovery of cross-border business and the rise in coking coal prices [5]. - **Long-term Competitive Advantage**: The company has a strong core competitive advantage by strategically positioning itself in key logistics infrastructure at the port and advancing an integrated "goods and trade" business model, effectively consolidating its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 10.75 CNY [6][22]. Core Insights - The company focuses on its duty-free core business, accelerates category expansion, and benefits from policy dividends, leading to expected high growth in performance [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from new duty-free store openings at Hengqin Port and Sanya Island, contributing to revenue growth [4]. - The financial forecast predicts revenues of 39.70 billion CNY, 39.74 billion CNY, and 44.80 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of -1.056 billion CNY, 468 million CNY, and 628 million CNY respectively [17][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Proposal - The report suggests an "Accumulate" rating based on strong growth potential and category expansion [6][22]. - The target price is set at 10.75 CNY, reflecting a 43x PE ratio for 2026 [22]. Company Overview - The company is deepening its layout in the Greater Bay Area and aims to become a national leader in the duty-free sector [24]. - It operates 18 duty-free businesses across various ports, enhancing its national penetration strategy [24]. Financial Forecast - The company expects significant revenue growth in its duty-free segment, driven by increased passenger flow and new product categories [19]. - The financial summary indicates a projected total revenue of 6,997 million CNY for 2023, with a significant increase in gross profit margins expected in the coming years [5][21]. Duty-Free Business Growth - The company has established a strong presence in the duty-free market, with a focus on expanding its product offerings, including electronics and gold [4][34]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of the Hengqin and Gongbei ports, which are expected to drive future growth [4][28]. Policy Benefits - Recent policy changes are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the duty-free market, particularly with the opening of new stores [29]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its experience in various port operations to expand its market share [29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 10.75 CNY [6][22]. Core Insights - The company focuses on its duty-free core business, accelerates category expansion, and benefits from policy dividends, leading to expected high growth in performance [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the establishment of new duty-free stores at Hengqin Port and Sanya Island, contributing to revenue growth [4]. - The company has successfully integrated 51% equity of Zhuhai Duty-Free, establishing a strategic direction centered on duty-free operations [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 6,997 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase of 72.9% from the previous year, followed by a decline in 2024 and 2025 [5][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -390 million CNY in 2023, with a forecasted recovery to 468 million CNY by 2026 [5][21]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin improvement, with projections of 11.8% in 2026 and 14.0% in 2027 [21]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach 39.70 billion CNY in 2025, 39.74 billion CNY in 2026, and 44.80 billion CNY in 2027 [17][19]. - The duty-free business is projected to grow by 15% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 15% in 2027, driven by increased passenger flow and new product categories [19]. Company Overview - The company is a key player in the duty-free market, with a network of 18 duty-free operations across various ports, primarily in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [24][28]. - The company has established a strong competitive position due to its scarce duty-free licenses, which are difficult for new entrants to replicate [28]. - The company has a history of expansion and innovation, having started its duty-free operations in 1980 and continuously adapting to market changes [34][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanhua Futures, with a target price of 30.42 yuan based on a 28x PE valuation for 2026E [14][42]. Core Insights - Nanhua Futures' overseas platform, Honghua International, is a key profit source, benefiting from the growing demand for cross-border risk management and overseas derivative trading as Chinese enterprises expand internationally [2][14]. - The company has a strong first-mover advantage in overseas business, supported by its successful Hong Kong IPO, which enhances its capital base to meet the increasing demand from enterprises going abroad [14][31]. - The rapid increase in overseas client margin is driving profit growth, with overseas financial service revenue expected to rise significantly [36][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Stable Equity, Comprehensive Business, and Deepening Profit Structure - Nanhua Futures is a comprehensive futures company with a foundation in futures brokerage, extending into risk management and wealth management, and focusing on overseas financial services for growth [19][21]. - The company has maintained a high concentration of ownership, with the controlling shareholder holding approximately 69.68% of the shares, which supports long-term strategic investments [19][20]. 2. Strong Demand for Overseas Derivatives and Risk Management - The demand for overseas derivatives is driven by the increasing outbound investment from Chinese enterprises, projected to reach approximately 174.4 billion USD in 2025 [25][27]. - The report highlights that as Chinese companies expand internationally, their need for cross-border hedging and risk management tools will continue to grow [25][30]. 3. Clear First-Mover Advantage in Overseas Business - Nanhua Futures has established a comprehensive network of licenses and memberships across major global financial centers, allowing it to effectively serve clients' cross-market hedging and clearing needs [31][33]. - The company has been acquiring relevant licenses since 2007, creating a unique position among domestic futures companies [31][33]. 4. Rapid Growth in Margin Scale Driving Profit - The overseas business has become the core source of profit for Nanhua Futures, with significant contributions from interest income and commissions [36][39]. - The report indicates that the overseas financial service revenue is expected to reach approximately 6.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a substantial portion coming from interest income [36][39]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 14.3 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 18.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.0 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, and 7.3 billion yuan respectively [14][41]. - The expected growth rates for net profit are +8.7%, +33.1%, and +10.4% for the same period [41][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [1]. Core Insights - The turning point for the China-Mongolia business has arrived, with the traffic volume at the Ganqimaodu port steadily recovering, short-distance freight rates stabilizing and rising, and the price of Mongolian coking coal continuing to rebound, collectively driving the company's performance into a recovery phase [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Traffic Volume at Ganqimaodu Port**: From February 2 to February 9, the average daily traffic volume was 1,318 vehicles/day (excluding closed days), a decrease of 8.7% week-on-week but an increase of 57.9% year-on-year. Cumulatively, as of 2026, the total traffic volume reached 36,148 vehicles, up 48.1% year-on-year [5]. - **Import and Export Freight Volume**: In February 2026, the freight volume increased by 218% year-on-year to 4.9525 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export volume at Ganqimaodu port was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and a total of 43.0585 million tons for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [5]. - **Short-Distance Freight Rates**: In the first half of 2025, short-distance freight rates averaged a decrease of 34.5% due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, with demand recovering, the average short-distance freight rate stabilized in the range of 60-70 yuan/ton. As of 2026, the cumulative average short-distance freight rate was 66 yuan/ton, with an average of 65 yuan/ton from February 2 to February 6, showing no change month-on-month but an increase of 8.3% year-on-year [5]. - **Recovery of China-Mongolia Business**: In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million yuan, a decrease of 4.90% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 6.570 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of 874 million yuan, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing decline in net profit were primarily due to the recovery of cross-border business and the rise in coking coal prices [5]. - **Long-term Competitive Advantage**: The company has a strong core competitive advantage by strategically positioning itself in the core logistics infrastructure of the port and is effectively advancing the "integrated trade and logistics" business model, which consolidates its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business [5].