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2025年4月政治局会议解读:落实“先手”政策,充实“后手”储备
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 10:45
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to actively respond to external tariff impacts, highlighting the importance of preparing adequate contingency plans in light of increasing external shocks [10][12][16] - The report outlines seven key points from the April 25 Politburo meeting, including the urgency to implement existing "proactive" policies and to increase reserves for "reactive" policies in response to uncertainties from tariffs [12][13][16] - There is a strong focus on boosting consumption, particularly in the service sector, as a means to enhance economic growth, with specific measures proposed to increase consumer spending [13][14][16] Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in real estate policy towards stabilization, with future measures expected to focus on supply-side initiatives rather than demand stimulation [14][16] - Support for companies significantly affected by tariffs is highlighted, particularly in terms of maintaining employment levels [14][16] - The report suggests that the capital market will remain stable and active, with backing from central financial institutions to support the A-share market [15][16] Group 3 - The analysis of the bond market indicates a phase of volatility, with expectations of a potential downward trend in interest rates as the government increases bond issuance [19] - In the stock market, there is a cautious outlook due to ongoing tariff negotiations and a potential decrease in risk appetite as holidays approach [19][20] - The report notes that sectors with high dividend yields, such as banking and utilities, are seen as defensive plays, while gold stocks may provide risk hedging opportunities [19][20]
2025Q1泛固收类基金季报点评:如何进行资产配置?
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-25 11:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, with the strong performance of the A-share market, fixed-income + funds with equity exposure performed well, showing a trend that the higher the equity position, the better the overall performance. Meanwhile, pure bond products experienced significant drawdowns due to multiple factors. QDII bond funds rose driven by the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the decline of short-term US bond yields [3]. - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, with opportunities in the medium and short - end. The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the convertible bond market has certain differences in views [35][37][39]. Summary According to the Directory 1.固收型公募基金2025Q1季报数据解读 Performance - In Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds with equity exposure performed well, and the higher the equity position, the better the performance. Pure bond products had significant drawdowns, and passive index bond funds performed worse than medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds. QDII bond funds rose [3]. - The average Q1 2025 reinstated unit net value growth rates of different types of funds are as follows: convertible bond funds 2.72%, international (QDII) bond funds 2.02%, flexible allocation funds 1.09%, partial debt hybrid funds 0.45%, hybrid bond funds (secondary) 0.39%, money market funds 0.34%, hybrid bond funds (primary) 0.29%, short - term pure bond funds 0.19%, medium - and long - term pure bond funds - 0.10%, enhanced index bond funds - 0.17%, passive index bond funds - 0.26%, REITs - 0.29% [5]. Scale - As of the end of Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds received significant capital inflows, with secondary bond funds having the fastest scale growth [6]. Leverage - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the overall fund leverage showed a downward trend [8]. Duration - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the fitted durations of pure bond funds all showed a downward trend [11]. Equity - related Position Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, the convertible bond positions of different types of fixed - income funds with equity exposure all showed a downward trend. The changes in stock positions were divergent, with the stock positions of primary and secondary bond funds with relatively low position centers increasing, while those of convertible bond funds with relatively high position centers decreasing [15]. Stock Industry Changes (Active) - The top five industries with increased holdings are non - ferrous metals, steel, commerce and retail, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The top five industries with reduced holdings are transportation, construction, coal, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals [18]. Individual Stock Heavy - holdings - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by market value are Zijin Mining, Yangtze Power, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Yili Group, China CITIC Bank, and Haier Smart Home [20]. - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by the number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze Power, Luxshare Precision, China Merchants Bank, China Mobile, and Yili Group [21]. Individual Stock Increases - The top stocks with increased market value in Q1 2025 are Zijin Mining, China CITIC Bank, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, etc. The top stocks with an increased number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, BYD, Alibaba - W, etc. [23]. Individual Stock Decreases - The top stocks with reduced market value in Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Postal Savings Bank of China, PetroChina, etc. The top stocks with a reduced number of holding funds are China Shenhua, CNOOC, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, etc. [25][26]. Convertible Bond Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the convertible bond holdings of the fixed - income funds decreased slightly. The funds generally reduced their holdings of bond - biased convertible bonds and increased their holdings of balanced convertible bonds [27]. - Compared with Q4 2024, the industries with the largest increase in holdings in Q1 2025 are basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and electronics. The industries with the largest decrease in holdings are banks, transportation, and automobiles. Fixed - income + funds are overweight in basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and machinery compared with the CSI Convertible Bond Index [29]. - Funds significantly increased their holdings of convertible bonds rated between A+ and AA+. They moderately reduced credit quality to select individual bonds after the overall valuation of convertible bonds increased [31]. 2. 固收型重点基金2025Q1后市展望观点汇总 Short - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, especially with possible supportive monetary policies, the capital market may become more liquid. Structurally, they are optimistic about the certainty opportunities in the medium and short - end [35]. Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that with increasing external uncertainties, the internal economic momentum needs continuous fiscal and monetary policy support. Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, and the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend. Some fund managers advocate active trading to increase returns, while others are optimistic about coupon opportunities [37]. Fixed - income Funds with Equity Exposure - Stock assets: The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the future, attention will be paid to the mid - term repair trend of fundamentals, leading stocks with strong competitiveness, stable patterns but significantly compressed valuations, as well as the allocation value of dividend assets and technology growth [39]. - Convertible bond assets: There are differences in views on the convertible bond market. On one hand, as the convertible bond market adjusts with the stock market, the previous high valuations have improved, and the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is gradually increasing. On the other hand, the absolute price and relative valuation of convertible bonds are still at a high level, and some fund managers mainly allocate to bond - biased convertible bonds [39]. - Pure bond assets: They still have good allocation value. It is expected that the upward space of medium - and short - term interest rates is limited in Q2 2025, and the volatility of long - term interest rates may increase. Credit bonds are considered the main investment direction [39]. High - position Convertible Bond Enhancement Funds - Most fund managers believe that the convertible bond market has returned to a reasonable valuation. Structurally, they focus on diversified investment and select investment opportunities that are in line with the market trend and benefit from policies [42]. QDII Bond Funds - Global uncertainties and disturbances may continue. The impact of tariffs is still unclear, and the market may not fully price in the risks. In Q2, US Treasury bonds may decline under recession trading, but there is a high probability of two - way fluctuations in the short term. Credit allocation should focus on high - grade, medium - and short - duration bonds [43][44][45]. Public REITs - Rental housing: The overall performance remained stable in Q1 2025, with small fluctuations in occupancy rates [46]. - Industrial parks: Market demand continued to be under pressure, with occupancy rates of most industrial park REITs falling below 80% [47]. - Consumption: The performance of consumer infrastructure projects was stable, with occupancy rates generally above 90% [48]. - Transportation: There was significant differentiation in Q1 2025, with some projects recovering and others performing poorly [49]. - Warehousing and logistics: There was an obvious "quantity - for - price" phenomenon, with occupancy rates remaining high but rents decreasing, leading to a slight decline in operating income [50]. - Energy and environmental protection: The performance of different underlying assets was differentiated [51].
2025Q1主动权益型基金季报点评:哪些方向备受主动权益基金经理关注?
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-25 07:50
证券研究报告——公募基金专题报告 目录/CONTENTS 1 主动权益型基金2025一季报数据回顾 哪些方向备受主动权益基金经理关注? ——2025Q1主动权益型基金季报点评 分析师:王骅 执业证书编号:S0890522090001 分析师:宋逸菲 执业证书编号:S0890524080003 发布日期:2025年4月25日 ►销售服务电话:021-20515355 ►请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 2 一季报基金经理观点综述 n 风格:价值、成长、均衡风格 n 行业主题:消费、医药、TMT、高 端制造、周期、港股 业绩回顾 2025Q1,A股市场走出先抑后扬行情。1月上旬 在外部不确定性扰动下,走势偏弱;春节前后,DeepSeek、 机器人领域的重大技术突破引发市场关注,助推主要指数上 行;3月,两会明确全年经济目标和政策重点,市场波动进 一步加大,政策鼓励的板块有所表现。具体来看,一季度小 微盘相对占优,国证2000、中证1000录得相对高的正收益, 分别为6.03%、4.51%;一季度主动权益基金收益中位数 2.85%,仅跑输国证2000、中证1000、科创50;一季度个股 涨跌幅中位数2.39% ...
新股上市内地市场权益提示
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-25 07:36
New Stock Listings - The new stock "Zhongjie Automobile" (code: 301560) is listed at an issuance price of 16.50[1] Rights Issues and Offers - Cash option for "AVIC Capital" (code: 600705) is available from April 23 to April 25, 2025[1] - Tender offer for "ST Xinchao" (code: 600777) is open from April 23 to May 22, 2025[1] - "ST Puli" (code: 300630) will enter the delisting arrangement period starting April 28, 2025[1] Market Alerts - "Guoguang Chain" (code: 605188) has reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - "Dongfang Tong" (code: 300379) also reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] Other Announcements - "Huili B" (code: 900939) has a recent announcement linked to its trading activities[1] - "Zhejiang Rongtai" (code: 603119) has a recent announcement linked to its trading activities[1] - "ST Jiuyou" (code: 600462) has a recent announcement linked to its trading activities[1]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250424
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 09:34
New Stock Listings - Tian You Wei (603202) listed at an issuance price of 93.50[1] - Jiang Shun Technology (001400) listed at an issuance price of 37.36[1] Market Alerts - Cash option declaration period for AVIC Capital (600705) is from April 23 to April 25, 2025[1] - Tender offer period for ST Xin Chao (600777) is from April 8 to May 7, 2025[1] - ST Pu Li (300630) enters delisting arrangement period starting April 28, 2025[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - Zhong Yi Da (600610) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - Guo Guang Lian Chuan (605188) also reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] Other Announcements - Multiple companies including ST Jin Shi (002951) and An Zheng Fashion (603839) have recent announcements regarding their stock activities[3]
量化数据看板跟踪周报(2025.04.20):市场进入降波阶段,风格稳定性上升-20250423
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-23 13:13
2025 年 04 月 23 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 市场进入降波阶段,风格稳定性上升 量化数据看板跟踪周报(2025.04.20) 分析师:柏逸凡 分析师登记编码:S0890524100001 电话:021-20321081 邮箱:baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890522110001 电话:021-20321297 邮箱:chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《养老金投资的被动指数产品,收益与 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.04.14-2025.04.18。 分析师:程秉哲 上周 A 股市场震荡反弹,主要指数大盘指数上涨。主要受到国家队增量资金 以及政策预期的影响。国务院常务会议指出,加大逆周期调节力度,着力稳就 业稳外贸, 着力促消费扩内需,着力优结构提质量,做强国内大循环,推动经济 高质量发展。会议另指出,要"持续"稳定股市,"持续"推动房地产市场平稳 健康发展。 风险提示:本报告根据历史公开数据及定期报告整理, ...
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250423
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-23 07:16
New Stock Issuance - 中航产融 (600705) has a cash option declaration period from April 23, 2025, to April 25, 2025[1] - 玉龙股份 (601028) has a cash option declaration period from April 17, 2025, to April 23, 2025[1] - ST新潮 (600777) has two tender offer declaration periods: the first from April 8, 2025, to May 7, 2025, and the second from April 23, 2025, to May 22, 2025[1] Delisting and Abnormal Fluctuations - *ST普利 (300630) will enter the delisting arrangement period starting April 28, 2025[1] - 中毅达 (600610) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 22, 2025[1] - 国光连锁 (605188) also reported severe abnormal fluctuations on April 22, 2025[1] Other Announcements - 福斯达 (603173) and 华泰股份 (600308) made announcements on April 23, 2025, but details are not specified[1] - 立昂微 (605358) and *ST金时 (002951) also made announcements on April 23, 2025, with unspecified details[1] - 安正时尚 (603839) and 鹏欣资源 (600490) made announcements on April 23, 2025, with unspecified details[1]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250422
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-22 09:26
| 603477 | 巨星农牧 | 2852&orgId=9900035087&announcementTime=2025 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=603477&announcementId=122304 -04-10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603709 | 中源家居 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=603709&announcementId=122312 | | | | | 3632&orgId=9900033232&announcementTime=2025 | -04-18 | | 603688 | 石英股份 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=603688&announcementId=122304 | | | | | 2168&orgId=9900023189&announcementTime=2025 ...
ETF及指数产品网格策略周报-20250422
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-22 08:45
Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy that focuses on profiting from price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][14] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the Innovation Drug ETF (159992.SZ), which is expected to benefit from increasing demand due to global aging and supportive government policies, with 48 new innovative drugs approved in 2024 [5][15] - The Chip ETF (159995.SZ) is projected to gain from high industry prosperity, domestic substitution, and policy incentives, with a significant investment fund of 344 billion RMB established to support semiconductor development [6][18] - The Tourism ETF (159766.SZ) is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of domestic and international tourism, supported by government measures to boost tourism consumption and a notable increase in travel activity during the Qingming holiday [7][20] - The A500 Index ETF (159351.SZ) aligns with China's strategy of self-sufficiency and innovation, focusing on key sectors like electronics and defense, with a current PE-TTM of 14.08, indicating valuation attractiveness [8][23] Group 3 - The report suggests that investors can enhance returns by diversifying their grid trading strategy across different ETFs with low correlation, such as combining broad-based and sector-specific ETFs [27] - A table of additional ETFs suitable for grid trading is provided, including various categories and investment scopes, indicating a broad range of options for investors [28][30]
公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报(2025.04.20):低波策略持续录得超额,波动行情下优势尽显-20250422
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-04-22 07:16
Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-shares rebounded after the tariff shock, but the continued rebound momentum weakened this week. The CSI All-Share Index rose slightly by 0.3%, while the CSI Active Equity Fund Index, representing fund performance, declined slightly by 0.23%. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy continued to benefit from the volatile market, rising 0.87% this week and recording an excess return of 1.1% [3]. - The quantitative strategy allocation preference is: Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy in A-shares is expected to have higher cost-effectiveness and is suitable for a defensive and offensive strategy. Overseas, the US stock market may be near a short-term bottom, and investors with low overseas positions can consider appropriate layout. In the long term, the US stock market is still optimistic [4]. - Among equity fund strategies, the Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy rose by 0.873% and recorded an excess return of 1.103%. The Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Strategy also rose, with a return of 0.345% and an excess return of 0.575%. The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.031%, better than the benchmark. The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy rebounded, recording a return of 3.463%. Global investment still has strong diversification value [5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Toolized Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking - **1.1 Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: It has maintained low volatility characteristics for a long time, with both portfolio volatility and maximum drawdown significantly better than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. Since the strategy started on July 31, 2023, it has achieved significant excess returns, demonstrating both defensive and offensive capabilities [14]. - **1.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy has been running for a short time, and its performance is similar to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity after the market environment improves and can maintain a similar trend to the benchmark in a weak market [17]. - **1.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: After double screening of risk elimination and scoring optimization, it has continuously outperformed the benchmark. Since the strategy started at the end of July 2023, the cumulative excess return has exceeded 0.29%, providing a reference for investors in cash management [18]. - **1.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Since July 31, 2023, in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the drive of artificial intelligence on global technology stocks, it has accumulated a high level of excess returns. Global allocation can enhance the returns of equity portfolios [21]. 2. Toolized Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - **2.1 Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Portfolio**: The strategy aims to select funds with long-term stable returns from high-equity-position actively managed funds. By adding restrictions on fund valuation levels, it constructs an actively managed equity fund portfolio with low volatility characteristics from both the net value performance and position characteristics dimensions [26]. - **2.2 Equity Fund Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: The strategy aims to further meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. It constructs a portfolio with a higher risk - volatility level and offensive capabilities by digging into fund managers with stronger Alpha - mining capabilities in actively managed equity funds [27]. - **2.3 Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio**: Based on multi - dimensional characteristic factors of money market funds, it constructs a money market fund screening system to help investors optimize the returns of short - term idle funds and reduce return volatility risks [23][28]. - **2.4 Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Portfolio**: Based on overseas equity market indices, it constructs an overseas equity allocation fund portfolio by using long - term momentum and short - term reversal factors to select appropriate QDII funds, providing an auxiliary tool for investors to expand global investment [25][29].