扩产增储降本增效，矿业龙头迈向巅峰 ——紫金矿业 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司是全球铜金矿业龙头，拥有世界级的矿产资源，行业顶尖的技术水平与管理能 力。我们原预测公司 2025 年 EPS 为 1.25 元，由于金、铜价格上涨，故上调 2025 年 盈利预测，并新增 2026-2027 年盈利预测。预计公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.49、1.82、2.20 元。根据可比公司 2025 年的市盈率估值情况，给予公司 2025 年 16X 市盈率，目标价 23.84 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 公司矿产铜、矿产金产品的量、价、利润率不及预期；海外并购当地政局不稳定风险； 投资收益波动风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 293,403 | 303,640 | 392,933 | 431,466 | 470,162 | | 同比增长 (%) | 8.5% | 3.5% | 29.4% | ...

爱柯迪 600933.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 全球化布局稳步推进，布局机器人业务 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，新增 2027 年预测，预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 分别为 11.36、14.04、16.22 亿元（原 2025-2026 年为 13.78、17.44 亿元），可比 公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 19 倍，目标价 21.85 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、汽车铝合金铸件配套收入低于预期、新能源车产品收入低于 预期、机器人业务进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,957 | 6,746 | 8,075 | 9,391 | 10,697 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.7% | 13.2% | 19.7% | 16.3% | 13.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,065 | 1,092 | 1,287 | 1,594 ...

研究结论 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Certainty 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Cubic size 风格 上。公募持股市值是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 金融工程 | 动态跟踪 Certainty 风格登顶，公募持股市值因子表 现出色 ——东方因子周报 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | 分红对期指的影响 20250411 | 2025-04-11 | | --- | --- | | ADWM：基于门控机制的自适应动态因子 | 2025-04-10 | | 加权模型：——因子选股系列之一一二 | | | 8 家基金公司宣布增资，证券投资基金托 | 2025-04-06 | | 管业务管理办法将迎修订 | | | DFQ-FactorVAE-pro：加入特征选择与环 | 2025-02-19 | | 境变量模块的 FactorVAE 模型：——因子 | | | 选股系列之一一一 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous value of -0.7%[1] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.4%, compared to a prior decrease of 0.2%[1] - The PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, slightly worse than the previous decline of 2.2%[1] Food and Core CPI Insights - Food item CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4%, with a month-on-month decline of 1.4%, compared to previous values of -3.3% and -0.5% respectively[5] - Core CPI year-on-year growth improved to 0.5%, up from -0.1% in the previous month[5] - Service CPI year-on-year growth rose to 0.3%, a significant recovery from -0.4%[5] PPI Sector Analysis - The mining and raw materials sectors saw PPI declines of 8.3% and 2.4% respectively, with energy sector PPI continuing to decline[5] - The PPI for durable consumer goods showed a notable increase, with household appliances PPI improving to -0.3% from -3.3%[5] - Consumer goods PPI trends varied, with essential goods generally seeing an increase while discretionary items showed mixed results[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with policy effectiveness not meeting expectations and potential geopolitical conflicts affecting commodity prices[2]

- The report introduces a dividend prediction model to estimate the impact of dividends on stock index futures contracts. The model involves four key steps: estimating the net profit of index constituent stocks, calculating the pre-tax total dividend for each stock, assessing the impact of dividends on the index, and predicting the theoretical impact of dividends on each contract based on historical patterns and assumptions[23][26][33] - The formula for estimating the weight of a stock in the index is provided as follows: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\left(\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1+R\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1}}}\right)}}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\left(\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1+R\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1}}}\right)}}}}}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) is the accurate weight of stock \(i\) at time \(t_0\), and \(R\) represents the price change rate of the stock during the period[28] - The theoretical pricing model for stock index futures is based on the no-arbitrage principle. For discrete dividend distributions, the formula is: $$\mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi)$$ where \(D_i\) represents the present value of dividends distributed at different time points, and \(\phi\) is the risk-free rate for the period between dividend distributions. The futures price is then calculated as: $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ For continuous dividend distributions, the formula is: $$F_t = S_t \cdot e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \(r\) is the annualized risk-free rate, \(d\) is the annualized dividend yield, and \(T-t\) is the time to maturity[36][37] - The report evaluates the impact of dividends on various stock index futures contracts (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000). For example, the predicted dividend points for April contracts are as follows: - CSI 300: 0.85 - CSI 500: 0.24 - CSI 1000: 0.20 The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends) for these contracts are also calculated, with values such as 24.28% for CSI 300 and 23.62% for CSI 500[11][13][14] - The report highlights the remaining impact of dividends on April contracts for different indices: - CSI 300: 0.02% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00%[15]

Group 1: Market Stability Measures - The central bank supports the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to increase holdings in stock market index funds and will provide sufficient refinancing support if necessary[4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has raised the upper limit for insurance funds' equity asset allocation ratio[4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support central enterprises and their listed companies to increase share buybacks[4] Group 2: Strategic Role of Central Huijin - Central Huijin is positioned as a "stabilizing force" in the capital market, akin to a sovereign wealth fund, marking a new phase in strategic reserve and stabilization mechanism construction[4] - Central Huijin has been actively increasing stock holdings during market volatility, similar to the U.S. 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program which was aimed at stabilizing the market[4] - The central bank's refinancing support indicates an indirect involvement in maintaining market stability, as outlined in the draft of the Financial Stability Law[4] Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - The statement from Central Huijin emphasizes confidence in the capital market's development, driven by a positive outlook on China's economic future[4] - The ongoing U.S.-China tensions may lead to increased market volatility, impacting investor sentiment[4] - Risks associated with tariff changes and global supply chain restructuring could affect corporate earnings and overall market growth[4]

新代碳管深绑电池创新链，龙头引领产品 升级 核心观点 老产品价格企稳叠加新产品放量，业绩增长动能强劲。当前传统碳纳米管导电浆料 价格企稳，2024 年公司导电剂浆料销量同比高增，推动营收重回增长轨道。同时， 公司单壁产品以及复配单壁的第四代产品已推向市场进入放量阶段，随着公司新增 产能逐步投放，出货结构将向新代高性能产品倾斜。目前高性能稳定的单壁碳纳米 管处于供不应求状态，单吨粉体价格高达千万元级别，有望为公司带来丰厚利润增 量。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于产品结构变化，我们下调 2024 年收入与利润，预测公司 2024-2026 年归母净利 润分别为 2.53、4.95、6.76 亿元（原 24-25 年预测值为 3.22、4.53 亿元），参考可 比公司 25 年估值水平，给予公司 25 年 32 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 45.76 元，维持 买入评级。 风险提示 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -13.24 | -21.47 | 5.12 | 46.69 | | 相对表现% | -8.15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The revenue growth rate shows marginal improvement, with resilience in net interest margin [10] - The company has adjusted its assumptions, slightly increasing net interest margin and decreasing non-interest income growth forecasts, predicting a net profit growth of 6.8%/7.7%/8.7% for 2025/2026/2027 [3][10] - The target price is set at 27.75 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.79 for 2025, maintaining a 20% discount to the historical average PB of 0.99 [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to grow from 61,585 in 2023 to 87,285 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.4%, 8.2%, 7.9%, 9.6%, and 10.7% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 25,535 in 2023 to 33,901 in 2027, with growth rates of 10.7%, 6.2%, 6.8%, 7.7%, and 8.7% [5] - The company’s total assets and loan growth rates are projected to be 15.3% and 17.8% respectively as of the end of 2024 [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 21.9% in 2024 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.59 CNY based on a 27x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.7% to 2.45 billion CNY, with a recovery expected in 2025, where revenue is forecasted to increase by 17.9% to 2.89 billion CNY [4][10]. - The decline in T300 revenue is attributed to reduced demand in the equipment sector, while T800 revenue is expected to grow significantly due to successful product validation and subsequent mass supply [10]. - The overall gross margin is expected to decrease to 45.5% in 2024, but is projected to recover slightly in the following years [4][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 2,518 million CNY - 2024: 2,450 million CNY - 2025: 2,888 million CNY - 2026: 3,366 million CNY - 2027: 3,950 million CNY [4][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 873 million CNY - 2024: 741 million CNY - 2025: 970 million CNY - 2026: 1,124 million CNY - 2027: 1,324 million CNY [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.05 CNY - 2024: 0.89 CNY - 2025: 1.17 CNY - 2026: 1.35 CNY - 2027: 1.59 CNY [4][10] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 48.7% (2023), 45.5% (2024), 48.3% (2025) - Net Margin: 34.7% (2023), 30.3% (2024), 33.6% (2025) - Return on Equity (ROE): 16.9% (2023), 13.5% (2024), 15.9% (2025) [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) with a target price of 207.90 CNY [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the launch of new games, including "Wanjian Changsheng" and "Zhangjian Chuanqi" [6][8] - The forecasted net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.069 billion CNY, 1.158 billion CNY, and 1.327 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a recovery in game revenue [6] - The company has a strong gross margin of 88% and a net margin of 25.2% projected for 2025 [6][8] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 4.185 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 19% [7] - The expected revenue for 2025 is 4.236 billion CNY, representing a growth of 14.6% compared to 2024 [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to be 945 million CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 16% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 14.85 CNY, with a projected increase to 18.42 CNY by 2027 [7][11] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a projected debt-to-asset ratio of 19.5% for 2025 [11]