Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next six months [13]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in consumer expectations, driven by a comprehensive policy initiative aimed at boosting consumption across various sectors, including support for families, cultural tourism, and the promotion of new consumption patterns [2][3]. - The policy emphasizes enhancing consumer capacity through income support and optimizing the consumption environment to address key constraints on consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Impact - The policy plan covers a wide range of areas, including support for families, cultural tourism, and the promotion of green and smart upgrades in durable consumer goods [2]. - Specific measures include establishing a childcare subsidy system, enhancing services for the elderly and children, and promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, particularly with the recovery of the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities and the anticipated impact of national subsidies [3]. - Recommended companies include leading custom furniture brands such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Gujia Home [3]. - In the packaging sector, the report recommends focusing on 3C packaging leader Yutong Technology due to improved demand in the supply chain [3]. - For the cultural and personal care sectors, the report highlights Morning Glory as a leading cultural brand and suggests attention to diaper manufacturer Haoyue Care [3]. High-Growth Segments - The report identifies high-growth segments such as new consumption-related IP, toys, smart glasses, and e-cigarettes, recommending companies like Blukoo and Mingyue Optical [3]. - It also continues to recommend dental care leader Dengkang Dental, which is expected to see sustained growth due to its high-value products and effective channel strategies [3]. - The outdoor sports sector is highlighted for its demand growth, with recommendations for companies like Zhejiang Nature and Anta Sports [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights concerns over a potential economic recession in the US, driven by weak labor market data and PMI figures, alongside the impact of escalating tariffs under Trump's policies, leading to a significant decline in major US stock indices, with the Nasdaq down over 11% since late February [2][8][9] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, the lowest since November, and a month-on-month rate of 0.2%, the lowest since October, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [2][8][9] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, as market participants are keen to see if Chairman Powell will signal a dovish stance, which could help stabilize market sentiment amid ongoing uncertainties [2][8][9] Group 2 - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that COMEX silver (+4.79%) and NYMEX platinum (+4.51%) had the highest gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-3.07%) and Nasdaq Composite (-2.43%) experienced significant declines [3][30] - In the equity markets, the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.39%) and Shenzhen Component Index (+1.24%) showed positive performance, contrasting with declines in major US indices [33][38] - The report indicates that the energy sector in the US saw the largest gains (+2.79%), while the communications services sector faced the steepest losses (-3.68%) [38]

华福证券 石化运输周报（2025.3.10-2025.3.16）：中型油轮运价持 续改善，VLCC 运价维持相对高位 投资要点： 油运市场：2025 年第十一周，原油轮方面，VLCC 型船 TCE 均值 3.8 万美元/日，环比下降 2.0%，同比下降 21.3%；苏伊士型船 TCE 均 值 4.5 万美元/日，环比上升 20.9%，同比上升 18.9%；阿芙拉型船 TCE 均值 2.7 万美元/日，环比下降 5.9%，同比下降 35.2%。成品油轮方面， LR2 型船 TCE 均值 3.0 万美元/日，环比上升 12.9%，同比下降 48.2%； LR1 型船 TCE 均值 2.3 万美元/日，环比上升 19.0%，同比下降 47.8%； MR 型船大西洋一篮子 TCE 均值 1.9 万美元/日，环比上升 5.3%，同比 下降 54.0%；MR 型船太平洋一篮子 TCE 均值 2.2 万美元/日，环比下降 0.9%，同比下降 42.2%。 LNG 市场：2025 年第十一周，17.4 万立方米型船即期运价 23750 美元/日，环比上涨 6.7%，同比下降 59.5%；16 万立方米型船即期运价 13500 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil transportation market shows mixed trends with VLCC rates under pressure due to slow cargo release and excess tonnage, while medium-sized tanker rates are improving. The market sentiment is supported by OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production in April [7][8] - The LNG market is experiencing a slight increase in spot rates for certain vessel types, but year-on-year comparisons show significant declines [3][4] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Market - In the week of March 10-16, 2025, the BDTI composite index averaged 909.2 points, up 3.1% week-on-week but down 23.9% year-on-year. VLCC TCE averaged $38,329/day, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 21.3% year-on-year [10] - Suezmax TCE averaged $44,715/day, up 20.9% week-on-week and up 18.9% year-on-year. Aframax TCE averaged $27,030/day, down 5.9% week-on-week and down 35.2% year-on-year [10] - The medium-sized tanker market is seeing steady recovery, particularly in the Mediterranean routes, while the product tanker market is benefiting from increased demand in Middle East-Japan and Middle East-Europe routes [7][19] LNG Transportation Market - In the same week, spot rates for 174,000 cubic meter LNG carriers averaged $23,750/day, up 6.7% week-on-week but down 59.5% year-on-year. For 160,000 cubic meter vessels, the rate was $13,500/day, up 12.5% week-on-week but down 71.8% year-on-year [3][37] - The LNG market in China reported a price of 4,449 RMB/ton, down 1.9% week-on-week but up 8.6% year-on-year. The import volume of LNG in December 2024 was 7.14 million tons, up 16.9% month-on-month but down 15.0% year-on-year [43][48] Demand Side - As of March 14, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $71.6 and $66.7 per barrel, respectively, with slight declines from the previous week. The U.S. crude oil production in January 2025 was 13 million barrels/day, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 3.5% year-on-year [23][24] - China's crude oil imports in December 2024 were 47.84 million tons, down 1.4% month-on-month and down 1.1% year-on-year [25] Supply Side - As of December 2024, the total oil tanker fleet was 669 million deadweight tons, up 0.6% year-on-year. The VLCC fleet size was 279 million deadweight tons, remaining stable year-on-year [35] - The LNG fleet totaled 120.1 million cubic meters as of November 2024, up 6.8% year-on-year, with the 17,000-20,000 cubic meter segment growing by 2% [49]

业 研 究 建筑材料 两办发文促进住房消费，建材板块有望全面受益 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》， 方案提出要更好满足住房消费需求，持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳， 加力实施城中村和危旧房改造，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力，允 许专项债券支持城市政府收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，适时降低住房 公积金贷款利率，扩大住房公积金使用范围；自然资源部、财政部发文要 求支持运用专项债券开展土地储备工作，有效推动房地产市场止跌回稳； 金融监管总局会议强调坚决做好保交房工作；2 月社会融资规模存量 417.29 万亿元，同比增长 8.2%；深圳对住房公积金贷款和利息补贴政策进行调整 优化，涉及提高贷款额度、下调首付款比例、加大利息补贴力度等多项有 力举措；昆明推广灵活就业人员参加公积金试点；无锡锡山区推出购房补 贴政策，每套最高补贴 5 万元；宁波购房缴纳契税自 3 月 10 日起调整，首 套认定标准再扩大；苏州出台"三低一宽"购房金融产品，最低首付比例 15%。短期来看：1）稳增长压力下，4 月政治局会议前仍为地产政策窗口 期；2）万科风险 ...

行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：关注 3C 设备在机器人组装生产 环节的应用 投资要点： 3C 设备在机器人组装生产环节应用空间广阔 行 业 定 期 报 告 马斯克表示，人形机器人原型很容易，但批量生产很难。Figure AI 的 CEO Brett Adcock 表示，人形机器人的组装更类似于消费电子产品 而不是汽车。我们认为，人形机器人与消费电子产品的生产过程有相 似的要求，部分 3C 设备公司在人形机器人的组装生产环节已有相关布 局： 博众精工：在人形机器人生产组装及其核心零部件领域，公司已 有布局； 天准科技：公司正针对人形机器人行业推广公司的首款具身智能 控制器——星智 001； 强瑞技术：公司正积极布局与机器人相关的核心零部件产品(如核 心关节)及检测设备等业务，并正在与潜在客户进行方案对接及送样； 博杰股份：公司参股 24%尔智机器人，尔智机器人是一家工业机 器人研发商； 凌云光：公司的 FZMot 卢大炜 ion 智能光学运动捕捉系统可服务 于具身智能的动作训练、数据采集与处理、模拟仿真等，是具身智能 训练中的关键数据； 奥普特 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in consumer expectations, particularly in the home furnishing sector, with a potential turning point in the fundamentals [2] - It emphasizes the benefits of policy support and high-growth segments, recommending companies with strong product upgrades and e-commerce channels [2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lens industry that possess core R&D capabilities and strong brand development [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes a recovery in the home furnishing sector driven by increased transactions in the second-hand housing market and improved consumer confidence, predicting better performance during the 315 promotional event compared to last year [8] - Key companies to watch include custom furniture leaders such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Kuka [8] Paper and Packaging - As of March 14, 2025, prices for various paper products remained stable, with double glue paper at 5450 CNY/ton, copper plate paper at 5820 CNY/ton, and box board paper at 3639.2 CNY/ton, which saw a decrease of 47.2 CNY/ton [8] - The report recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from improved industry dynamics [8] Light Industry Consumption - The report mentions Meta's collaboration with Ray-Ban to launch limited edition AI glasses, which could drive demand for smart eyewear [8] - It also highlights the recovery of domestic consumption, suggesting a focus on cultural and creative leaders like Morning Glory and oral care leader Dengkang [8] Export Chain - The report discusses recent policy changes in Guangdong aimed at supporting cross-border e-commerce, which could enhance profitability for companies in this sector [8] - Companies to watch include Zhejiang Natural and Hars, which are expected to benefit from these developments [8] New Tobacco Products - The report notes trends in electronic cigarette regulation in the U.S., suggesting that compliance and harm reduction will be key focuses [8] - It recommends companies like Smoore International, which have strong partnerships and product advantages in the new tobacco sector [8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Hailan Home and Anta benefiting from supportive policies [8] - The report highlights the growth of the outdoor economy, recommending companies like Zhejiang Natural and Mugaodi [8]

行 业 研 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 03 月 15 日 究 特斯拉 Optimus 明年有望前往火星，开普勒机器人进厂 "搬砖" 投资要点： 星舰明年年底前携带特斯拉人形机器人 Optimus 前往火星 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日 Teslaconomics 发文称"祝@SpaceX 成立 23 周年快乐，该公 司成立于 2002 年 3 月 14 日，至今仍在突破可能的极限，祝愿下一章 书写让生命多行星化的篇章。"而马斯克回应该发言时说到，星舰将 于明年年底启程前往火星，搭载 Optimus。如果那些着陆任务进展顺利， 人类登陆可能最早在 2029 年开始，尽管 2031 年更有可能。 开普勒 K2 机器人进厂"搬砖" 3 月 15 日，上海开普勒机器人发布旗下人形机器人先行者 K2 上 岗的视频。在视频中，K2 能够在工厂流水线进行搬箱、运输、操作仪 器等动作，双臂协同搬运能力为 25-30 千克。据了解，K2 此前已投入 到智能制造、仓储物流、特种作业、科研教育等头部客户实际场景开 展测试，进行物料搬运、样品处理、巡逻巡检、冲压收料、质量检测 等场景测试。 人形机器人造福全人类，未来有望像汽 ...

行 业 研 究 银行 2025 年 03 月 15 日 2 月社融同比多增，信贷投放动能边际走弱 投资要点： 财政发力支撑社融增速，信贷增量低于预期 2 月社融继续同比多增，但信贷增量低于市场预期。当月新增社融 2.2 万亿元，同比多增 7416 亿元。2 月末存量社融同比增长 8.2%，同比增 速较上月提升 0.2pct。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 从社融增量结构来看，社融同比多增主要来自直接融资的贡献，信贷 对社融增量的贡献减弱。2 月社融口径人民币贷款新增 6528 亿元，同 比少增 3245 亿元。剔除春节错位因素，1-2 月合计新增社融口径人民 币贷款 6.14 万亿元，和上年同期基本持平。2 月直接融资新增 1.87 万 亿元，其中政府债仍然保持较快发行节奏，新增 1.69 万亿元，同比多 增 1.1 万亿元。 化债置换和靠前投放影响下，信贷增长动能边际走弱 2 月企业端信贷增量回落，企业贷款新增 1.04 万亿元，同比少增 5300 亿元。其中，票据融资新增 1693 亿元，同比多增 4460 亿元，票据冲 量对当月信贷形成一定支撑。 对公一般贷款需求下滑。2 月企业中长期贷款新增 5400 亿元 ...

行 华福证券 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 15 日 业 研 究 有色金属 小金属行情热度不减，铜周内开启去库 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美国通胀超预期降温，黄金价格受振上涨。美国关税政策的 摇摆叠加美国2月份消费价格增长放缓，市场对美联储降息预期有所升温， 提振金银价格走势。短期来看，全球贸易战扩大的担忧加剧，市场对未来 经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主 要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧及朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属 避险属性，中国央行1月增持黄金，贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄 金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株 冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议 关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达资源。 工业金属：美国2月CPI低于预期，铜周内开始去库。铜，供给端，本 周进口铜矿TC均价继续下跌，当前为-16美元/吨。需求端，本周铜价上涨 后，下游需求买兴增加，但买货节奏仍偏谨慎，仍是逢低采购。全球铜库 存80.81万吨，环比-1.75万吨，同比+17.62万吨。我们认为，短期中美制 造业PMI共振处于荣枯 ...