新能源全面入市新政落地，关注功率预测、智 能微网等新业态推进 事件点评 电气设备 行业快报 投资评级 领先大市(维持) 首选股票 评级 一年行业表现 资料来源：聚源 2025 年 02 月 10 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 | 升幅% | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 8.78 | | 绝对收益 | 4.79 | -2.65 | 24.47 | 分析师 周涛 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523050001 zhoutao@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 电气设备：分布式光伏新政落地，奠定行业量 质 齐 升 基 础 - 华 金 证 券 - 电 新 - 行 业 快 报 2025.1.26 电气设备：25 年国网投资拟超 6500 亿元，电 网投资持续高景气-华金证券-电新-行业快报 2025.1.17 东方电缆：拟投资建设深远海输电装备项目， 立足广西+辐射东盟-华金证券-电新-东方电缆- 公司快报 2025.1.13 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；能源成本大幅波动；行业竞争加剧。 电气设备：上海开启 4.3GW ...

春季行情可能进入主升阶段 定期报告 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 2025 年 02 月 09 日 策略类●证券研究报告 | 分析师 | 邓利军 | | --- | --- | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 | | | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张欣诺 | | | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张诗瀑 | | | zhangshipu@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 短期风险有限，可持股过节 2025.1.24 机构资金流入 A 股规模可能上升 2025.1.23 2024Q4 基金持仓点评-加仓电子、银行、电 新，减仓有色、医药 2025.1.23 政策强化春季行情开启 2025.1.22 新股整体交投情绪或有稳定迹象，不排除将 进 入 布 局观 察 窗 口 - 华 金 证 券新 股 周 报 2025.1.19 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 一、春季行情可能进入主升阶段 （一 ...

2025 年 02 月 09 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期 事件点评 CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 美国就业强劲，薪资通胀螺旋开始转动—— 美国就业数据点评（2025.1） 2025.2.8 1 月外储略增或未干预汇率，预计新增贷款 4.25 万亿——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 93 期） 2025.2.7 乙巳之初，风起云涌——2025 年春节海内外 宏观综述 2025.2.4 PMI 开年走低，主因春节提前和出口风险— —PMI 点评（2025.1） 2025.1.27 "两新"补贴和抢出口共同推动工业利润回 升 — — 工 业 企 业 利 润 点 评 （ 2024.12 ） 2025.1.27 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 月 CPI 在春节提前、油价回升、服务消费稳中向好的共同拉动下，抵冲食品涨幅 温和的影响 ...

投资要点 2025 年 02 月 09 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 模拟厂商 24Q4 业绩指引向好，多领域技术迭 代拓宽市场空间 模拟厂商 24Q4 业绩指引向好，模拟芯片市场拐点已至 若取业绩预告中值计算，多家模拟公司 24Q4 单季营收和归母净利润预计同环比均有所改 善。工业和汽车业务营收占比较高的纳芯微营收同环比涨幅居前。根据纳芯微 2024 年 11 月投资者调研纪要，纳芯微表示工业市场库存水位已恢复正常水平，但市场需求仍疲软； 光伏市场正在去库存，预计 25Q1 回归正常库存水平，当前需求低于正常需求；通信行业 库存去化需至 25Q1 完成；汽车电子需求较旺盛。利润增长原因既包括行业需求逐渐复苏、 公司产品结构优化，也包括股份费用冲回等费用减少。24Q4 圣邦股份归母净利润预计创 22Q4 以来新高；即使剔除相关费用减少对利润的正向影响，24Q4 圣邦利润仍维持较高 环比增速。 我们认为，随着下游库存持续去化，需求逐渐恢复，中国模拟芯片市场拐点已至，其中消 费类产品价格基本触底，工业等市场随着需求复苏，价格跌幅有望收窄，未来模拟公司营 收规模和盈利能力预计进一步提升。 多领域技术加速迭代，模拟芯片 ...

美国就业强劲，薪资通胀螺旋开始转动 事件点评 美国就业数据点评（2025.1） 投资要点 美国 1 月非农就业走低但此前两月数据大幅上修，失业率再降至 8 个月低位，近 3 个月劳动 力市场紧张程度迅速提升，美联储近期降息必要性再度下降。当地时间 2 月 7 日，美国劳工 统计局公布数据，1 月美国新增非农就业 14.3 万人低于市场预期，但同时对 2024 年 11 月、 12 月新增就业人数分别上修 4.9 万、5.1 万人至 26.1 万人、30.7 万人，这意味着过去三个月 共新增和上修非农就业达 24.3 万人，考虑到年初低温寒潮天气往往对美国就业数据造成短期 向下扰动，本次公布的总体数据表现显示美国近期劳动力市场需求趋势强劲。受此带动，1 月美国失业率连续第二个月下行 0.1 个百分点至 4.0%的近 8 个月低位，明显低于美联储于 2024 年 12 月提供的最新预测（2024Q4 和 2025Q4 分别为 4.2%和 4.3%）。美联储以失业 率作为产出缺口的代表性指标，这意味着美联储近期降息的必要性再度明显下降。就业行业 分布呈现出较为明显的短期天气影响特征，专业商务服务教育医疗、休闲酒店两 ...

2025 年 02 月 07 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 1 月外储略增或未干预汇率，预计新增贷款 4.25 万亿 定期报告 华金宏观·双循环周报（第 93 期） 投资要点 货币：1 月外储略增或未干预汇率，预计新增贷款 4.25 万亿。1. 1 月官方外汇储 备资产较 2024 年末基本持平略有增加，来自海外主要货币汇率和海外主要经济体 国债收益率波动的估值效应均较小，预计 1 月外汇占款基本持平，这意味着当月美 元指数震荡上冲后的高位回落过程令人民银行进行货币投放的时间窗口有所拉长。 1 月末，我国外汇储备规模为 32090 亿美元，较 2024 年 12 月末上升 67 亿美元， 升幅为 0.21%。2. 结合 1 月央行投放基础货币较为充足、春节提前又可能导致现 金流出较多、银行间资金利率有所上行、2024 年末置换债或存尾部信贷效应等因 素共同分析，预计 1 月新增贷款 4.25 万亿，对应的 M2 同比增速预计为 7.0%。近 年来，信贷"开门红"有进一步向 1 月集中的明显趋势，2021-2024 年 1 月新增贷 款分别达到当年全年新增额的 17.9%、18.7%、21.5%和 27.2%，1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Insights - The Spring Festival box office reached a historic high of 9.51 billion yuan, with 187 million viewers, surpassing the total viewership of the 2024 Spring Festival [5] - The film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" led the box office with 4.839 billion yuan [5] - The average ticket price increased by 3.4% to 50.8 yuan, marking a slight recovery after two years of decline [5] - The audience's viewing frequency and social viewing have both increased, indicating a shift from a traffic-oriented approach to a content-oriented one [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of content quality and the development of IP series in driving box office success [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The relative return over 12 months is 24.94%, and the absolute return is 43.52% [4] - The average daily box office during the Spring Festival was 1.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [5] - The number of viewers per screening reached a six-year high, with an average of 69.5 attendees and a 54.8% occupancy rate [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Light Media, Wanda Film, Baiana Qiancheng, Bona Film Group, Jiecheng Co., and Huace Film & TV [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Insights - The Spring Festival box office reached a historic high of 9.51 billion yuan, with 187 million viewers, surpassing the total viewership of the 2024 Spring Festival [5] - The film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" led the box office with 4.839 billion yuan [5] - The average ticket price increased by 3.4% to 50.8 yuan, marking a slight recovery after two years of decline [5] - The audience's viewing frequency and social viewing have both increased, indicating a shift from a traffic-oriented approach to a content-oriented one [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of content quality and the development of IP series in driving box office success [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The relative return over 12 months is 24.94%, and the absolute return is 43.52% [4] - The average daily box office during the Spring Festival was 1.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [5] - The number of viewers per screening reached a six-year high, with an average of 69.5 attendees and a 54.8% occupancy rate [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Light Media, Wanda Film, Baiana Qiancheng, Bona Film Group, Jiecheng Co., and Huace Film & TV [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of 449 to 533 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% to 90% [1][10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to see a substantial increase in profit, potentially reaching a new high since Q4 2022, with a net profit forecast of 164 to 249 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 18.46% to 79.17% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 54.66% to 133.93% [2][10] - The company is benefiting from the acceleration of domestic high-end analog chip localization, as the Chinese government has initiated anti-subsidy investigations against U.S. imports, which is expected to enhance the competitive landscape for domestic manufacturers [3][10] - The company has developed over 5,200 products across 32 categories, with performance metrics that match or exceed those of leading global analog manufacturers [4][10] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2024 is 3.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.6%, and net profit is expected to be 502 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 78.7% [9][10] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 49.6% in 2023 to 52.5% in 2024, and the net profit margin is expected to rise from 10.7% to 15.4% [9][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 83.3 in 2024 to 39.8 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" which indicates an expected outperformance of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][8]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has rapidly gained traction, becoming the top app on the Apple App Store in 140 countries and achieving 16 million downloads within 18 days of its launch, surpassing ChatGPT's growth by 100% during the same period [5]. - The application has demonstrated a significant reduction in operational costs, with DeepSeek-R1's performance aligning with OpenAI's models while costing 90% less than GPT-4o-mini, thus enabling broader access to AI technology [5]. - Major tech companies, including NVIDIA, Amazon, and Microsoft, have integrated DeepSeek-R1 into their platforms, indicating a strong market acceptance and potential for ecosystem transformation [5]. - The report suggests that the integration of DeepSeek by leading companies could lead to a revaluation of the software and hardware ecosystem, accelerating the deployment of "AI+" applications [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry has shown a relative return of 10.49% over 1 month, 12.24% over 3 months, and 13.11% over 12 months, with absolute returns of 11.02%, 8.44%, and 32.47% respectively [4]. Related Reports - The report highlights various related analyses focusing on the AI landscape, including the increasing issuance of game licenses and the influx of overseas users into domestic platforms, which are critical for understanding the broader market dynamics [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies such as Tencent, NetEase, Kuaishou, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the advancements and integrations associated with DeepSeek [5].