4 中国银河证券 CGS 宏观动态报告 上半年分省经济数据的七大看点 2025年8月4日 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎: 010-8092-8096 zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130523070003 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130524060001 路自愿 差距呈拉大趋势。上半年广东对江苏 GDP 总量的领先优势创 2018 年以来同 期新低,GDP 第一大省受到挑战的可能性进一步加大。 ☎: 136-7105-7587 网: luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130525070001 作会议将全方位扩大内需、大力提振消费作为九大重点工作任务之首,其中 大力提振消费是重中之重。大力提振消费也成为 2025年各地政府工作报告 中重点提及的工作。在此背景下,有数据可比的 22个省份中,14个省份上 半年社零增速超全年预期目标,占比超 63.6%。但同时,经济发达的北京、 天津、上海社零同比增速居全国末位。社零规模本 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Development - China's AI industry is currently in the "scale-up" phase, with a market size expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030, contributing approximately 10% to GDP over the next decade[2][46] - The AI+ industry is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15%[2][46] - By the end of 2024, the AI industry in China is expected to surpass 700 billion yuan, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% annually[11] Group 2: Industrial and Consumer Integration - China's industrial base provides rich scenarios for AI applications, with the country expected to account for 45% of global industrial output by 2030[28][33] - The AI consumer hardware market is projected to exceed 1.17 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 10%, significantly outpacing the overall consumption growth rate of 3.4%[39] - AI applications are expected to expand from traditional industrial and consumer sectors to deeper integration across various industries[46][50] Group 3: Key Growth Areas - The digital native sector, represented by large internet companies, is poised for rapid growth due to its established data infrastructure and user base[51] - High-penetration industries such as finance, healthcare, and transportation are expected to see accelerated AI adoption, with 88% of financial institutions in the U.S. already deploying AI[51] - Industrial AI tools and platforms are anticipated to evolve, requiring deep integration of algorithms with industry knowledge to achieve comprehensive autonomy[52] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, volatility in financial markets, and uncertainties in AI technology iterations[2][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst positive macroeconomic policies and ongoing support for consumption and technology [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the PB ratio at 0.73 times and a dividend yield of 4.09%, indicating strong potential for investment [5][28]. - The resumption of VAT on newly issued government bonds is expected to impact banks' income and asset allocation, leading to a decrease in actual comprehensive yields for various bonds [11][10]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is anticipated to benefit retail banking operations, stimulating credit demand [16][5]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting new productive forces, which could benefit retail and technology finance sectors [9][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with a decline of 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index [5][17]. - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank (+2.43%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank (+1.74%) showed notable gains [18][5]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of August 1, 2025, the banking sector's PB ratio stands at 0.73, reflecting a 43.98% discount compared to the overall A-share market [28][5]. - The report lists several banks with strong performance potential, including Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398), Agricultural Bank (601288), and Postal Savings Bank (601658) [37][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valued joint-stock banks and quality regional banks are gaining attention from active funds, with a focus on the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [37][5]. - The overall positive accumulation of fundamental factors in the banking sector indicates a potential turning point in performance [37][5].

行业周报 国债等恢复增值税征收,消费、经营贷将迎贴息 银行业周报 (2025.07.28-2025.08.03) 2025 年 8 月 4 日 核心观点 银行业 | | | 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 z:zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-08-01 20% 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 银行板块表现优于市场:本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.75%,银行板块下跌 ● 0.84%。国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别+0.80%、-1.52%、-1.04%、 -2.30%。个股方面,9 家上市银行上涨,农业银行(+2.43%）、工商银行 (+1.74%)、邮储银行(+1.07%)、建设银行(+0.75%)、成都银行(+0.70%) 涨幅居前。截至8月1日,银行板块 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Development - China's AI industry has entered a "scale-up" phase, with a market size exceeding 700 billion RMB and a growth rate of over 20% annually[7] - The "AI+" action plan emphasizes three paths: open scene leadership, solidifying industrial foundations, and maintaining safety[4] - By 2030, the "AI+" industry is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%, with a market value surpassing 1 trillion RMB, contributing approximately 10% to GDP growth over the next decade[40] Group 2: Industrial and Consumer Applications - China's industrial base provides rich scenarios for AI applications, with the country accounting for 31.6% of global manufacturing output in 2024, projected to reach 45% by 2030[25] - The AI consumer hardware market is expected to exceed 1.17 trillion RMB in 2024, growing at a rate of 10%, and is projected to surpass 2.5 trillion RMB by 2030[34] - Industrial robots installed in China reached 276,300 units in 2023, representing 51% of global installations, indicating a strong foundation for AI integration in manufacturing[30] Group 3: Data and Infrastructure - China's data volume is projected to grow from 51.78 ZB in 2025 to 136.12 ZB by 2029, with a CAGR of 26.9%[15] - The AI infrastructure is continuously improving, with domestic AI chip performance rapidly catching up to international standards, exemplified by Huawei's Ascend 384 system[13] - The number of AI companies in China exceeds 4,500, covering critical areas such as chips, algorithms, data, and applications[7]

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, China's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with the top ten provinces contributing significantly to this growth, achieving a weighted GDP growth rate of 5.4%[1] - The GDP share of the top ten provinces increased from 61.22% at the end of 2024 to 61.62% in the first half of 2024, contributing over 62.32% to the national GDP increment[1] - Guangdong and Jiangsu together accounted for 20.7% of the national GDP, with Jiangsu's growth rate at 5.7%, surpassing Guangdong's 4.2%[1][3] Group 2: Provincial Growth Targets - 20 provinces exceeded their annual GDP growth targets in the first half, with Gansu, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Shandong showing the least pressure to meet their goals, exceeding targets by 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively[1][2] - Conversely, 11 provinces fell short of their annual growth targets, with Hainan, Shanxi, and Chongqing lagging by more than 1 percentage point, indicating greater pressure to achieve their goals[1][2] Group 3: Investment Trends - 68% of the 25 provinces with comparable data reported fixed asset investment growth below their annual targets, necessitating increased efforts in the second half of the year[1][2] - The highest investment growth was seen in Tibet (24.8%), Inner Mongolia (14.8%), and Beijing (14.1%), while Guangdong and Hainan experienced declines of 7.6% and 9.7% respectively[1][2] Group 4: Consumption and Retail Sales - 63.6% of provinces reported retail sales growth exceeding annual targets, with Hainan leading at 11.2% growth, driven by policies promoting consumption[1][2] - Major cities like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai saw retail sales growth lagging behind the national average, attributed to high base effects and declining consumer confidence[1][2] Group 5: Export Dynamics - Eastern provinces faced significant export pressures, while central and western provinces like Qinghai and Gansu reported export growth exceeding 30%, driven by green energy products and diversified markets[1][2] - The export growth in Gansu to Belt and Road countries reached 33.1%, highlighting the importance of new markets for provincial economies[1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value and positive fundamental factors accumulating [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the banking index declining only 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index. Notably, state-owned banks showed a positive performance with a 0.80% increase [5][17]. - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support bank credit and enhance the operating environment for banks [7][8]. - The restoration of VAT on newly issued government bonds is anticipated to increase banks' holding costs and affect their asset allocation strategies, leading to a decline in the actual comprehensive yield of various bonds [10][11]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is expected to benefit retail banking, stimulating credit demand and enhancing market vitality [16][37]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with a commitment to implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, which will benefit retail and technology finance businesses [9]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector's performance was relatively stable, with state-owned banks showing resilience. The overall banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.73, and the dividend yield was 4.09% as of August 1, 2025 [5][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's basic positive factors are continuously accumulating, and an inflection point in performance is expected. It recommends focusing on the effectiveness of a package of policies and the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [5][37]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [5][37].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Recommended" investment rating for several companies in the transportation sector, including China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and others [11][12][13]. Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a mixed recovery, with air travel demand expected to increase due to the resumption of international flights and domestic consumption recovery driven by policy support [9][10][13]. - The express delivery sector is showing growth, with a 9% increase in revenue and a 15.8% rise in business volume year-on-year as of June 2025 [77]. - The cross-border logistics segment is anticipated to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, with domestic brands expanding their international presence [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The transportation sector's cumulative performance from July 28 to August 2, 2025, showed a decline of 3.22%, ranking it 27th among 31 SW primary industries [17][19]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking (a) Aviation and Airports - Domestic and international capacity recovery rates for major airlines in June 2025 reached 150.62% and 93.36% respectively compared to 2019 [26][31]. - Major airports also reported recovery rates for domestic passenger throughput, with Baiyun Airport at 120.08% and Shanghai Airport at 119.80% compared to 2019 [31]. (b) Shipping and Ports - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) reported a decline of 53.47% year-on-year as of August 1, 2025, indicating challenges in the shipping market [36]. - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) also showed significant year-on-year declines across various routes, with the East America route down 40.97% [36]. (c) Road and Rail - In June 2025, rail passenger volume increased by 3.61% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 2.24% [61]. - Road freight volume reached 36.51 million tons, up 2.87% year-on-year, with road passenger volume declining by 3.72% [68]. (d) Express Logistics - The express delivery industry achieved a revenue of 126.32 billion yuan in June 2025, marking a 9% increase year-on-year, with a business volume of 1.687 billion pieces [77]. 3. Key News and Announcements - The report highlights significant developments in the aviation sector, including the launch of a long-distance drone logistics route in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [84]. - Southern Airlines signed a memorandum of cooperation with Uzbekistan Airways to enhance air connectivity and service offerings [86]. - Shenzhen plans to establish over 1,200 low-altitude takeoff and landing points by the end of 2026 to support low-altitude logistics and transportation [87].

Group 1: AI Industry Development - China's AI industry has entered a "scale-up" phase, with a market size expected to exceed 700 billion RMB by the end of 2024, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% annually[7] - The "AI+" action plan emphasizes three main paths: open scene leadership, solidifying industrial foundations, and maintaining safety defenses[4] - The AI consumer hardware market is projected to surpass 1.17 trillion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 10%[34] Group 2: Industrial and Consumer Applications - China's industrial robot installations reached 276,300 units in 2023, accounting for 51% of global new installations, with a projected annual growth rate of over 15%[30] - The AI application landscape is expanding in both industrial and consumer sectors, with significant opportunities in digital-native fields and high-penetration industries like finance and healthcare[42] - By 2030, the "AI+" industry is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%, contributing approximately 10% to China's GDP growth over the next decade[40] Group 3: Data and Infrastructure - China's data volume is projected to grow from 51.78 ZB in 2025 to 136.12 ZB by 2029, with a CAGR of 26.9%[15] - The AI infrastructure, including computing power and data processing capabilities, is continuously improving, with domestic AI chip performance rapidly catching up to international standards[13] - The number of AI companies in China is over 4,500, covering critical areas such as chips, algorithms, and applications[7]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed a significant drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and previous months' data was revised downwards by 258,000 jobs [2][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.25%, while hourly wages increased year-on-year to 3.91%, indicating a mixed labor market scenario [2][3] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating three cuts totaling 75 basis points by December 2025, reflecting concerns over economic weakness [6][8] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a concentration of production capacity, with leading companies increasing their market share, resulting in a more orderly supply environment [19][22] - Demand for polyester filament remains stable, with a seasonal uptick expected in the second half of the year as inventory levels are low [20][22] - The cost pressures from raw materials are expected to ease, with oil price fluctuations influencing the cost structure of polyester filament production [21][22] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a recovery in public fund holdings, with a notable increase in the market value of heavy holdings, indicating a structural rebound [25][28] - Recent policy changes in drug procurement are expected to favor quality over price, potentially stabilizing profit margins for innovative drug and device companies [26][28] - The medical device market is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in tendering activities, particularly in medical imaging and rehabilitation equipment [27][28] Group 4: North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange market has seen a decline in trading activity, with the average daily turnover dropping to approximately 251 billion yuan [31][32] - The overall market valuation remains high, with the North Exchange's price-to-earnings ratio at around 50.9 times, indicating potential for long-term investment value [32][34] - The introduction of new indices and steady progress in IPOs are expected to maintain a high level of market interest and activity [34]