证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 2 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250402 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】2024 年对外经济部门体检报告*管涛 刘立品。经常项目顺差 扩大，占 GDP 比重仍然处于国际认可的合理范围以内。货物贸易顺差创历 史新高，居民出境需求较为旺盛。 【宏观经济】3 月 PMI 数据点评*陈琦 朱启兵。3 月制造业产、需延续温和 回升。3 月非制造业 PMI 指数环比延续小幅回升。高技术产业景气度明显回 升。 | 市场指数 | 收盘价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3348.44 | 0.38 | | 深证成指 | 10503.66 | (0.01) | | 沪深 300 | 3887.68 | 0.01 | | 中小 100 | 6568.47 | (0.03) | | 创业板指 | 2101.88 | (0.09) | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 医药生物 | 3.34 | 家用电器 | ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 4 月 1 日 2024 年对外经济部门体检 报告 经常项目顺差扩大，内资外流压力增加，民间对 外净负债大幅收敛 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师: 管涛 (8610)66229136 tao.guan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520100001 证券分析师: 刘立品 (8610)66229236 lipin.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521080001 经常项目顺差扩大，占 GDP 比重仍然处于国际认可的合理范围以内。货 物贸易顺差创历史新高，居民出境需求较为旺盛。 资本项目逆差扩大，其中净误差与遗漏绝对值创 2007 年以来新低，但线 上资本项目逆差创历史新高，内资外流是主力。 内资净流出压力加大，对外其他投资、证券投资净流出规模增加，但 对外直接投资净流出放缓，主要是因为下半年关联企业债务净流出压 力减弱。 外资由上年净流入重新转为小幅净流出，外来直接投资净流入放缓，其 他投资净流出增加，但外来证券投资净流入增加，其中债券投 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 1 日 688252.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 25.83 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 13.8 (6.6) 7.8 81.3 相对上证综指 11.5 (7.1) 8.3 71.6 发行股数 (百万) 409.02 流通股 (百万) 182.34 总市值 (人民币 百万) 10,565.02 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 236.50 主要股东(%) (24%) 2% 28% 53% 79% 105% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 天德钰 上证综指 天德钰 显示驱动份额进一步扩大，电子价签夯实领先地位 天德钰发布 2024 年年报。公司 2024 年营收和毛利率双增，DDIC 业务营收增长较快，电 子价签继续夯实领先地位，同时快充协议和 VCM 产品也在积极迭代。维持 增持 评级。 支撑评级的要点 估值 考虑到电子价签业务对毛 ...

| 流通股 (百万) | 578.97 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 8,170.32 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 187.80 | | 主要股东(%) | | | 扬州新瑞连投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 20.78 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 3 月 31 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 1 日 688403.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 9.75 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 13.0 (5.5) 8.8 20.8 相对上证综指 10.7 (6.0) 9.3 11.1 发行股数 (百万) 837.98 (21%) (12%) (2%) 7% 17% 27% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 汇成股份 上证综指 《汇成股份》20240506 《汇成股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Insights - The company reported a main business revenue of 86.4 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 67.3% to 1.04 billion RMB, primarily due to a decline in settlement profit margins and increased impairment losses [4][7] - The company aims for a sales target of 120.5 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the actual sales in 2024 [7] Financial Performance - The company's main business revenue is projected to grow from 86.4 billion RMB in 2024 to 91.7 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.14% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 956 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.08% [6] - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24 RMB, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.94 times [6] Sales and Market Position - In 2024, the company achieved a sales volume of 114.5 billion RMB, marking a 19.4% decrease year-on-year, but it ranked 8th among real estate companies, entering the top 10 for the first time [7][28] - The average selling price in 2024 was 29,206 RMB per square meter, down 8.5% from the previous year [33] Land Acquisition and Development - The company focused on acquiring land in core first and second-tier cities, with over 70% of new land reserves located in first-tier cities [7] - In 2024, the company acquired 24 plots of land across 8 cities, with a total land reserve of 271 million square meters, a decrease of 44.8% year-on-year [7] Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 29.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [25] - The company’s total interest-bearing debt was 103.89 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 71.3% [19][23]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 4 月 1 日 3 月 PMI 数据点评 机械产业出现了一定的被动去库存迹象 3 月制造业产、需延续温和回升。3 月非制造业 PMI 指数环比延续小幅回升。 高技术产业景气度明显回升。 3 月制造业产、需延续温和回升。2025 年 3 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 50.5%， 环比（2 月，下同）回升 0.3 个百分点；制造企业景气度在扩张区间延续 回升。着眼重要细分项，3 月新订单指数 51.8%，环比回升 0.7 个百分点， 其中，新出口订单指数环比回升 0.4 个百分点，实现 49.0%。生产指数实 现 52.6%，环比回升 0.1 个百分点；原材料库存指数为 47.2%，环比反弹 0.2 个百分点；产成品库存指数为 48.0%，环比下滑 0.3 个百分点；从业 人员指数为48.2%，环比回落0.4个百分点；供货商配送时间指数为50.3%， 环比回落 0.7 个百分点。企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数实 现 53.8%，环比回落 0.7 个百分点，但仍稳定在较高景气度区间。 制造企业生产意愿仍在回升。3 月生产指数环比微幅回升，制造业生产活 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 1 日 688049.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 47.86 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 2.7 4.1 6.7 71.9 相对上证综指 0.4 3.7 7.1 62.2 (19%) 10% 40% 69% 98% 127% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 炬芯科技 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 146.14 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 112.27 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 6,994.09 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 425.54 | | 主要股东(%) | | | 珠海瑞昇投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 23.18 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 3 月 31 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《炬芯科技》20241031 《炬芯科技 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant transformation of telecom operators in China, emphasizing their shift from being mere providers of digital infrastructure to becoming leaders in technological innovation, particularly in AI and computing power [2][4][6] - The report indicates that the three major telecom operators are increasing their investments in computing power, with plans for substantial capital expenditures in this area, reflecting their commitment to this strategic shift [5][6] Group 1: Telecom Industry - The three major telecom operators in China have reported substantial growth in their computing power capabilities, with China Mobile achieving a scale of 29.2 EFLOPS, an increase of 19.1 EFLOPS, and significant revenue growth in their cloud services [4][5] - China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 195.7%, while its total cloud revenue reached 113.9 billion yuan, growing by 17.1% [4][5] - China Unicom has also expanded its computing power to over 17 EFLOPS, with cloud revenue increasing by 17.1% to 68.6 billion yuan [4][5] Group 2: Basic Chemicals Industry - Satellite Chemical achieved a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, with a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% [8][9] - The company reported a record net profit of 2.379 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.36% [8][9] - The company’s sales of chemical products and new materials reached 7.3527 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.83%, with significant growth in international sales [10][11] Group 3: Computer Industry - CloudSai Intelligence reported a revenue of 5.623 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with a notable growth in its non-recurring net profit by 39.84% [13][15] - The company is actively involved in the development of smart computing and big data services, benefiting from the increasing demand for digital transformation solutions in various sectors [14][15] - The establishment of a major data center project in Shanghai is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in providing intelligent computing infrastructure [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The three major telecom operators are significantly benefiting from the performance growth and value reassessment brought by intelligent computing business under the AI wave. They are considered defensive growth assets within the AI chain, possessing both growth potential and scarcity [3][4]. - The operators have made substantial investments in computing power, with a clear commitment to transformation. By 2024, China Mobile's intelligent computing scale is expected to reach 29.2 EFLOPS, with a net increase of 19.1 EFLOPS. China Telecom's self-owned intelligent computing power will reach 35 EFLOPS, and China Unicom's intelligent computing scale will exceed 17 EFLOPS [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on the three major operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. Additionally, consider partnerships with computing service providers such as Runze Technology, Pingzhi Information, Zhongbei Communication, ZTE, Fenghuo Communication, and Unisplendour [3]. Performance Metrics - China Mobile's intelligent revenue surpassed 100 billion RMB, reaching 1,004 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4%. China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 8.9 billion RMB, growing by 195.7%, while its Tianyi Cloud revenue reached 113.9 billion RMB, up 17.1% [3]. - China Unicom's cloud revenue was 68.6 billion RMB, an increase of 17.1%, and its data center revenue was 25.9 billion RMB, up 7.4% [3]. Future Investment Outlook - Both China Mobile and China Telecom have indicated that their investments in computing power will have no upper limit. China Mobile plans to invest 37.3 billion RMB in computing power, accounting for 25% of its total capital expenditure. China Telecom plans a 22% year-on-year increase in computing investment, while China Unicom aims for a 28% increase [3][4]. Industry Positioning - Telecom operators are positioned as core assets in the domestic computing power chain, with the rapid development of AI driving growth in cloud computing and data center businesses. Their strong cash flow and high dividends provide a safety net, allowing them to withstand external shocks while maintaining valuation flexibility [3].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers achieved a record high performance in 2024, with revenue of 16.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.57%, and a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, up 43.82% [3][14] - Beijing Capital International Airport reported a revenue of approximately 5.492 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in passenger and cargo throughput [3][16] - SF Express surpassed a net profit of 10 billion yuan in 2024, marking a successful year for the company [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers' 2024 revenue reached 16.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, driven by participation in the Belt and Road Initiative [3][14] - Beijing Capital International Airport's revenue for 2024 was approximately 5.492 billion yuan, with passenger throughput increasing by 27.4% and cargo throughput by 29.3% [3][16] - SF Express reported a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan, highlighting its successful market expansion [3][25] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In February 2025, the express delivery business volume increased by 58.75% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 30.43% [4][52] - The shipping price index showed an increase, while dry bulk freight rates decreased [4][41] - The average daily flight operations in the international sector increased by 22.27% year-on-year in March 2025 [4][84] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5]