基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 3 月 31 日 002648.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 22.57 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 21.1 6.3 23.9 32.4 相对深圳成指 16.0 6.3 24.4 18.8 发行股数 (百万) 3,368.65 流通股 (百万) 3,366.48 总市值 (人民币 百万) 76,030.33 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 525.90 主要股东 (19%) (10%) (1%) 7% 16% 24% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 卫星化学 深圳成指 浙江卫星控股股份有限公司 34.6% 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 3 月 28 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《卫星化学》20240724 《卫星化学》20240408 《卫星化学》20230723 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 31 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250330 国际油价小幅上涨，溴素、制冷剂价格上涨 3 月份建议关注：1、三四月份旺季可能涨价的品种，如农化、纺织化学用品、制冷剂等；2、年 报季报行情，如大型能源央企、轻烃裂解子行业龙头公司等；3、下游行业快速发展，建议关注 部分电子材料、新能源材料公司；4、宏观经济整体预期改善，行业龙头价值公司进入长期可配 置区间。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250323》20250324 《化工行业周报 20250316》20250317 《化工行业周报 20250309》20250309 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S1300123070003 本周（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 22.80 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][7]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a slight revenue growth of 6.8%, reaching RMB 5.623 billion, while the net profit increased by 4.9% to RMB 202 million. The non-recurring net profit saw a significant rise of 39.84% [5][9]. - The company's intelligent computing and big data businesses are steadily developing, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][7]. - The company is actively expanding its intelligent computing business, with significant projects like the second phase of the Songjiang Big Data Computing Center, which is part of Shanghai's major engineering list for 2024 [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 71.1 billion, RMB 83.9 billion, and RMB 96.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit is expected to be RMB 2.8 billion, RMB 3.3 billion, and RMB 3.9 billion for the same years [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.20, RMB 0.24, and RMB 0.28 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 113.3, 93.5, and 80.5 [7][9]. - The company reported a gross margin of 19.29% for 2024, a slight increase of 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a digital transformation expert in various sectors, focusing on comprehensive service capabilities and industry-specific solutions [10]. - The demand for smart computing and data solutions is increasing due to the rapid growth of digital infrastructure in smart city initiatives, benefiting the company's business expansion [10]. - The company has successfully completed multiple digital information system upgrades for government agencies, establishing a foundation for future projects [10].

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 3 月 30 日 电力设备与新能源行业 3月 第 4 周周报 固态电池催化不断，新能源汽车旺季来临 光伏方面，供给侧改革持续推进，中央经济工作会议明确提出综合整治"内 卷式"竞争，光伏供给侧改革力度有望加强。本周光伏产业链涨价幅度收窄， 或逐步达到终端承受临界值。光伏制造降本增效仍为主线，重点关注硅料、 电池片、头部企业格局优化、盈利提升以及金属化新技术渗透率提升。风电 方面，国内海陆风招标及建设有望稳步推进，2025 年需求向好或带动整机与 零部件环节盈利修复；同时伴随国内项目招标动工、海外利率下行及项目规 划推进，海外及出海需求亦相对旺盛。建议优先配置盈利有望改善的整机及 锻铸件环节，受益于海风、出海逻辑的整机、桩基、海缆环节。新能源车方 面，政府工作报告提出大力发展智能网联新能源汽车，全年销量有望保持高 增，带动电池和材料需求增长。近期受供需影响，部分材料环节出现涨价， 有望带动盈利回升，2025 年或迎来量利齐升。新技术方面，固态电池产业化 持续发酵，2027 年或实现量产，在相关领域有布局的电池、材料和设备企业 有望受益。建议优先布局格局较优的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of HKD 16.24 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a slight decline in net profit. The gross margin has rebounded, and cash on hand has increased by double digits. The company maintains a strong strategic focus on core cities in first and second-tier areas, which lays a solid foundation for future high-quality development. Despite the ongoing industry sales slump, the company has demonstrated resilience in both sales and land acquisition, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 1429.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 48.0 billion, a decrease of 4.6%. The proposed cash dividend is HKD 1.2 per share, with a payout ratio of 47% [4][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 13.3%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin and attributable net profit margin were 4.5% and 3.4%, respectively, both showing slight declines [8][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to the current industry conditions. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 1478 billion, RMB 1383 billion, and RMB 1351 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, -6%, and -2%, respectively. The net profit for the same years is projected to be RMB 50 billion, RMB 50 billion, and RMB 51 billion, with growth rates of 3%, 1%, and 2% [5][7]. Cash and Debt Management - As of the end of 2024, the company held cash of RMB 572.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The interest-bearing debt was RMB 845.0 billion, up 5.7%. The net debt ratio stood at 26.6%, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio was 9.35X, indicating a strong liquidity position [8][18][21]. Sales and Market Position - The company ranked seventh in the industry for sales in 2024, with a sales amount of RMB 1335 billion, a decline of 29.4% year-on-year. The sales area was 611 million square meters, also down 29.3%. The sales price per square meter was RMB 20,500, a decrease of 1.1% [23][31][25]. - The sales return rate reached 102%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous year, indicating effective cash collection [8]. Land Acquisition - The company acquired land worth RMB 530 billion in 2024, a decrease of 40% year-on-year, ranking sixth in the industry for land acquisition. The land acquisition intensity was 40%, which, despite a decline, remains relatively high [38][44].

Profitability Overview - In January-February, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 910.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - The operating income of industrial enterprises grew by 2.8% year-on-year, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points, while the profit margin was 4.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points[1][5] Production and Price Dynamics - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points, indicating sustained production activity[2][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, while the PPI for production materials fell by 2.6%, reflecting weak price performance[2][6] Sector Contributions - Manufacturing profits increased by 4.8% year-on-year, significantly improving by 8.7 percentage points, contributing positively to overall industrial profitability[2][10] - The contribution of high-tech manufacturing to profit growth fell to 0.2 percentage points, down by 0.2 percentage points, while traditional equipment manufacturing shifted from negative to positive, contributing 1.3 percentage points[10] Future Outlook - Industrial profitability is expected to receive support from both volume and price factors in the second quarter, with potential improvements in PPI anticipated due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand[2][18] - Insufficient profitability may hinder employment and income growth, necessitating fiscal policies to support enterprises through demand expansion and cost reduction[18] Risks - Potential risks include overseas recession and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact industrial profitability[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 3.02 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 390 million, up 18.0% year-on-year [3][8] - The product structure continues to optimize, with a steady increase in market share within the province [3][7] - The company reported a strong performance in the second half of the year, with a revenue growth of 23.7% year-on-year, and a significant increase of 31.1% in Q4 2024 [7][8] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company’s revenue was RMB 3,021 million, with a gross profit margin of 60.9%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 12.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [7][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was RMB 0.77, reflecting an 18.0% increase from the previous year [6][8] Market Position - The company’s domestic market revenue reached RMB 2.23 billion in 2024, growing by 16.1% year-on-year, accounting for 76.9% of total revenue [7] - The company has 1,001 distributors, with 288 in the domestic market and 713 in the provincial market, showing a year-on-year increase in both categories [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 3.28 billion, RMB 3.65 billion, and RMB 4.13 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 11.1%, and 13.2% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 408 million, RMB 468 million, and RMB 550 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 3.02 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 390 million, up 18.0% year-on-year [3][8] - The product structure continues to optimize, and the market share in the province steadily increases, indicating strong operational performance [3][7] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 690 million, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%, while the net profit for the same period was RMB 60 million, down 2.1% year-on-year [8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 60.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 50.1%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] Market Position - The company’s revenue from the domestic market reached RMB 2.23 billion in 2024, growing 16.1% year-on-year, accounting for 76.9% of total revenue [7] - The company has 1,001 distributors, with 288 in the domestic market and 713 in the provincial market, showing a significant increase in distribution channels [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 3.28 billion, RMB 3.65 billion, and RMB 4.13 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 11.1%, and 13.2% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 410 million, RMB 470 million, and RMB 550 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of 5.1%, 14.7%, and 17.7% respectively [4][6]

Group 1: Key Insights on Financial Engineering Strategies - The report discusses a strategy based on the analysis of the direction and intensity of main capital flows, aiming to reveal the layout logic and trend signals of large capital in the market. The model achieved an annualized excess return of 11.54% compared to an equal-weighted industry benchmark during the backtesting period, with a maximum excess drawdown of -12.48% [2][5][6] - A second strategy utilizes the mean reversion theory of factor effectiveness, focusing on long-term effective factors that have recently underperformed. This strategy showed significant improvement in annualized excess returns compared to traditional financial factor selection strategies [7][8] Group 2: Key Insights on Kingsoft Office - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 5.121 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, with a net profit of 1.645 billion yuan, up 24.8%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.494 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 605 million yuan, up 42.6% [3][10] - The WPS 365 business experienced substantial growth, generating 437 million yuan in revenue, a remarkable increase of 149.3% year-on-year. The company is expanding its market influence by targeting both state-owned enterprises and private companies [11][12] - The personal WPS business also showed steady growth, achieving 3.283 billion yuan in revenue, an 18% increase year-on-year, with a total of 41.7 million annual paying users, up 17.5% [12][13] Group 3: Key Insights on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) - CATL reported a net profit of 50.745 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.01%, with total revenue of 362.013 billion yuan, down 9.7%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 14.744 billion yuan, up 13.62% year-on-year [15][16] - The company maintained its leading position in the power battery sector, achieving a global market share of 37.9% in 2024, and ranked first in energy storage battery shipments for four consecutive years, with a market share of 36.5% [16][17] - CATL's product matrix is comprehensive, with advancements in solid-state battery technology, positioning the company as an industry leader [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 313.42 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1][4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see steady growth in 2024, with significant revenue increases from WPS 365 and ongoing AI technology enhancements driving product upgrades [1][4]. - For 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 5.121 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and a net profit of RMB 1.645 billion, up 24.8% [4][8]. - The WPS 365 business achieved remarkable growth, with revenue reaching RMB 437 million, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% [9]. - The company is focusing on expanding its customer base, particularly in the government and enterprise sectors, while also enhancing its international business [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 64.3 billion, RMB 77.2 billion, and RMB 91.1 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 19.1 billion, RMB 24.1 billion, and RMB 27.9 billion [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 4.13, RMB 5.22, and RMB 6.02 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. - The company’s R&D expenses for 2024 were RMB 1.696 billion, representing a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with a focus on AI technology as a key growth driver [9].