Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The market showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, with a narrowing decline in housing prices. The total sales area of new commercial housing from January to November 2024 was 860 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, while the sales amount was 8.5 trillion yuan, down 19.2% year-on-year. The sales area is expected to return to 2009 levels, and the sales amount to 2015-2016 levels [1][2] - The performance of selected leading real estate companies is expected to decline in 2024, with a significant reduction in net profit due to factors such as declining gross margins and increased asset impairments. The forecasted total revenue and net profit for four selected companies in 2024 are 627 billion yuan and 14.5 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 5.6% and 36.7% [3][8] Summary by Sections Market Tracking - In December, the overall transaction volume in 30 key cities reached 18.01 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 17%, marking the highest level for the same period in three years. The sales area in November was 8.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [2] Performance Outlook - The four selected real estate companies are expected to see a significant decline in performance in 2024, with total revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 at 333.1 billion yuan and 13.3 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 8.0% and 39.5% [4] - The gross margin for these companies is projected to decrease from 16.3% in 2023 to around 13% in 2024 due to high land acquisition costs and ongoing market downturns [6] Impairment and Equity - The impairment losses for the selected companies are expected to remain significant, with a forecast of approximately 10.8 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [7] - The proportion of minority shareholders' equity is anticipated to rise slightly to 34% in 2024, compared to 2023 [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main areas for investment in the real estate sector: consumption combined with real estate, leading intermediaries, and top-performing companies. Specific companies to watch include: JinDi Group, New Town Holdings, Longfor Group, Beike-W, Wo Ai Wo Jia, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Development [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is experiencing significant growth, with a market size expected to reach nearly 900 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 12% from 2019 to 2024. The broader泛娱乐 (pan-entertainment) market is projected to approach 2 trillion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of nearly 14% over the same period [4][16]. - The demand for潮玩 is driven by the rise of the Z generation as a major consumer group, with core motivations including healing, aesthetics, IP, and social interaction. The supply side is bolstered by the emergence of high-quality domestic IPs and products [4][27]. - The潮玩 industry is at the beginning of a spiritual consumption era in China, with a growing number of二次元 (2D) users and a significant increase in the number of retail stores dedicated to trendy toys [4][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Current State of the潮玩 Industry - The潮玩 market is vast and has high prosperity, with significant room for expansion. The IP licensing market is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan, while the IP adaptation market is projected to reach nearly 600 billion yuan by 2024 [4][19]. - The industry is characterized by a strong demand for creative cultural products, with a growing number of domestic high-quality games, animations, and novels emerging [4][33]. 2.潮玩 Product Category Analysis - The market size hierarchy is as follows: building blocks > figurines > trading cards > plush toys, influenced by target demographics and average prices [5][54]. - The growth rate is fastest for trading cards, followed by figurines, building blocks, and plush toys, reflecting the maturity of different categories in China [5][54]. 3. Competitive Analysis of潮玩 Companies - The global潮玩 companies are categorized into four tiers based on their competitive strengths, with Disney leading the first tier, followed by LEGO and Bandai Namco in the second tier. Bubble Mart is identified as having the potential to enter the third tier [6][54]. - The competitive landscape is shaped by the reliance on IP, product categories, and operational capabilities, with companies that possess proprietary IP and strong operational systems being favored for investment [6][54]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with high barriers to entry and resource scarcity in IP, such as Bubble Mart, Miniso, and Morning Glory, while keeping an eye on emerging players like Bluko and Kayo [6][54].

Inflation Data - December CPI year-on-year growth was 0.1%, slightly down from 0.2% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[1] - December PPI year-on-year growth recorded at -2.3%, an improvement from -2.5% previously, also meeting market expectations[1] Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[5] - Food prices decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables and fruits dropping by 2.4% and 1.0% respectively, impacting CPI by approximately 0.12 percentage points[4] Economic Outlook - The current inflation level is seen as in the early stages of bottoming out, with significant potential for demand recovery[1] - The central economic work conference indicates a policy direction favoring a reasonable rebound in overall price levels, suggesting continued monetary policy easing is likely[1] Asset Allocation Recommendations - A-shares are expected to benefit from increased risk appetite, particularly in small-cap growth and technology sectors, with a focus on high-elasticity segments like the ChiNext and STAR Market[2] - Fixed income investments should consider short-duration city investment bonds, as the risk-free interest rate approaches a new equilibrium level[2]

Market Overview - The market is expected to exhibit a "ice and fire" scenario in 2025, with significant differentiation in investment styles driven by incremental capital[3] - Incremental capital primarily comes from margin financing and ETF funds, benefiting small-cap styles initially[3] Economic Outlook - Macro policies are expected to strengthen with both fiscal and monetary easing, potentially improving the domestic economic environment[2] - Corporate earnings are anticipated to trend upwards in 2025, although the rate of increase may not be significant[2] Style Analysis - The market is segmented, with different investor types favoring distinct styles, making timing crucial for style and sector selection[3] - In the short term, large-cap and value styles are expected to outperform, while in the medium term, small-cap and growth styles may take precedence[3] Industry Configuration - Key industries for 2025 include new energy, military, non-ferrous metals, machinery, chemicals, telecommunications, electronics, construction materials, real estate, and computers[4] - The report emphasizes a dual focus on fundamental analysis and trading strategies, particularly in sectors benefiting from AI trends[4] Thematic Investment Directions - Focus areas include technology (Huawei supply chain, large models, quantum computing) and consumption (emerging economies, winter sports, aging population)[5] - Restructuring and debt reduction are highlighted as significant themes, with supportive policies expected to replicate past market trends[5] Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing between economic recovery and liquidity conditions to capture both large-cap/value and small-cap/growth opportunities[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Insights - The core recommendation logic is that the company benefits from domestic subsidies and is increasing its market share overseas [2] - The black appliance industry is experiencing a stabilization in profitability and a valuation recovery due to improvements in the panel cycle and the impact of national subsidies [3][5] - The company is leveraging its leading product capabilities domestically and expanding its overseas channels, resulting in continuous market share growth [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of TCL Industries, focusing on display business and has distribution capabilities for other products [22][26] - The company has a strong distribution network and has seen significant growth in its innovative business segments, including solar energy [27] Industry Dynamics - The black appliance industry is benefiting from a shift towards larger screens and improved competition among leading brands [47] - National subsidies are driving the growth of the MiniLED segment, leading to an increase in market demand [64] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are HKD 93.4 billion, HKD 109.2 billion, and HKD 118 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 18%, 17%, and 8% [7][108] - Expected net profit for the same period is HKD 1.3 billion, HKD 1.7 billion, and HKD 2 billion, with growth rates of 80%, 27%, and 16% [7][108] Market Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the global market, with significant growth in both North America and Europe [3][4] - The company has established partnerships with major retailers and is leveraging sports marketing to enhance brand recognition [80][84] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong technological edge in MiniLED displays and has been proactive in product innovation [69][70] - The company is expanding its market share in emerging markets while maintaining a competitive edge against traditional brands [89][90]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' main brands (Anta and FILA) showed steady growth, while other brands continued to experience high growth [1] - Anta brand achieved high single-digit growth in 2024, driven by online sales and new business formats [2] - FILA brand returned to high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with its trendy sub-brand achieving high double-digit growth [3] - Other brands grew 40%-45% in 2024, with Q4 growth accelerating to 50%-55%, driven by strong performance in winter sports brands [4] - Anta Sports' core competitive advantages remain significant, with long-term growth potential in brand elevation, retail operations, and outdoor sports segments [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 11%/9%/8% in 2024/2025/2026 to RMB 695/757/820 billion [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 33%/-0.5%/+11% in 2024/2025/2026 to RMB 136/135/150 billion, excluding a one-time gain of RMB 15.8 billion from AmerSports' IPO [4] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.80/4.77/5.28 in 2024/2025/2026, with a P/E ratio of 14.5/14.5/13.1X [4][5] Brand Performance - Anta brand: Q4 2024 online sales grew nearly 20%, with overall high single-digit growth for the year [2] - FILA brand: Q4 2024 growth returned to high single digits, with trendy sub-brand achieving high double-digit growth [3] - Other brands: Descente grew 45%-50% and KOLON grew 60%-65% in Q4 2024 [4] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports is actively repurchasing shares, with over 21.55 million shares repurchased as of January 7, 2025 [5] - The company is focusing on brand elevation through product innovation, channel operations, and leveraging Olympic resources [5]

汇率端的演绎：消费突围 ——2025 年 1 月量化行业配置月报 核心观点 财政预期有望上修，消费板块或将成为未来核心配置主线之一，建议关注汽车、家电、 食品饮料、建材等行业的配置机会。 ❑ 财政预期有望上修，消费板块或将成为未来核心配置主线之一。 在四季度货币政策委员会例会上，央行传递出货币宽松与稳定汇率的双重立场， 由于单独进行货币宽松操作将加大汇率贬值压力，我们认为，这实际上隐含着财 政政策落地的节奏和力度或将超出市场当前偏谨慎的预期。另一方面，从模型监 测结果来看，截至 1 月 7 日，主动权益基金对食品饮料行业的配置比例为 5.3%， 相较全 A 的 5.5%仍然低配，市场预期并不高。考虑到大力提振消费为顶层定调 2025 年九大重点任务之首，当前市场预期较低的消费板块有望成为 2025 年的核 心配置主线之一，可关注汽车、家电、食品饮料等行业的投资机会。此外，伴随 地产销售的持续改善，地产周期逐步趋稳，建议关注建材、化工等地产链行业的 配置机会。 ❑ 传媒、机械设备、综合等 6 个行业触发拥挤信号。 截至 1 月 6 日，各行业最新拥挤度指标均已脱离 95%预警范围。不过，最近 1 个 月，传媒、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has announced its first cash dividend plan since its listing in 2021, committing to distribute no less than 40% of the net profit attributable to shareholders (after deducting non-recurring gains) as cash dividends for the years 2024-2026, which reflects its focus on enhancing shareholder returns and maintaining a stable dividend level [2][3] - The company is actively securing high-quality imported coal resources, with a 46% year-on-year increase in contracted imported coal volume for the first three quarters of 2024, which is expected to help control business costs and maintain stable revenue and profit from its coal circulation business [3] - The company's heat and power cogeneration business is expected to grow steadily, while its renewable energy projects, including new energy storage and distributed energy services, are anticipated to scale up rapidly, with significant projects expected to be completed by 2025 [4] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 400.27 billion, 433.11 billion, and 459.22 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9.70%, +8.21%, and +6.03% [5][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.04 billion, 8.58 billion, and 9.30 billion for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -24.04%, +6.64%, and +8.42% [5][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.44, 1.54, and 1.67 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.64, 8.10, and 7.47 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expanding its global footprint by establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Germany, investing €36 million in total, which includes €30 million for a new automotive parts company in Bavaria [1][11]. - The establishment of the subsidiary in Bavaria is strategically significant as it is home to major automotive manufacturers like BMW and Audi, enhancing the company's ability to serve European markets [13][11]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue from ¥62 billion in 2023 to ¥136 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29% [4][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are ¥136 billion, ¥171 billion, and ¥223 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 29%, 25%, and 31% [4][10]. - Expected net profits for the same period are projected at ¥11.1 billion, ¥14.7 billion, and ¥19.2 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 38%, 31.8%, and 31% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be ¥2.3, ¥3.0, and ¥3.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.7, 14.2, and 10.8 [4][10]. Market Position - The company has demonstrated a significant increase in global competitiveness, with a revenue growth of 33% year-over-year, compared to a slight decline of 0.6% for a major competitor, Faurecia [3][4]. - The establishment of production capabilities in Slovakia and Germany is expected to enhance the company's service to local customers and expand its market presence in Europe [11][13].