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禾望电气点评报告:新能源电控业务有望触底回暖,大功率传动及电源应用前景广阔
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-06 08:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in power conversion, with its new energy control business expected to bottom out and recover, while the prospects for high-power transmission and power supply applications are broad [1] Summary by Sections 1. Market Expectations - The company's new energy control business is under pressure, with significant growth challenges anticipated. However, it is expected that the profitability and revenue growth of this segment will bottom out in Q3 2024 and return to a growth trajectory [9] - The company operates mainly in the wind and solar sectors, which are subject to considerable fluctuations. It is believed that the company can achieve steady growth by leveraging its underlying technology platform across various high-power applications [9] 2. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are expected to be CNY 37.57 billion, CNY 51.58 billion, and CNY 62.38 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 0.1%, 37.3%, and 20.9% respectively. The projected net profits for the same period are CNY 3.82 billion, CNY 5.13 billion, and CNY 6.31 billion, with year-over-year changes of -24.0%, 34.4%, and 23.1% respectively. The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is CNY 0.86, CNY 1.15, and CNY 1.42, corresponding to PE ratios of 22, 17, and 13 times [4][12]
商用车行业月报(2024年11月):重卡:新能源趋势明确,11月新能源、天然气重卡环比大增
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-06 00:23
证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 商用车 商用车 报告日期:2025 年 01 月 05 日 1)11 月新能源重卡销量首超万量,再创 24 年新高,同环比均上升。 2)新能源重卡市场竞争格局较为集中,三一集团夺得月销桂冠。 ❑ 投资建议: 新能源趋势明确,看好头部主机厂商业绩表现。以旧换新政策驱动,11 月重卡 销量环比回升。新能源重卡保持同环比大幅增长+117%/+21.89%,新能源渗透率 已达 14.68% 。我们认为,新能源重卡将迎来爆发并有望拉动行业更新需求。新 能源领域传统重卡主机厂一汽解放、中国重汽等迎头赶上,未来有望进一步发挥 货车渠道优势,提升市占率。 重卡:新能源趋势明确,11 月新能源、天然气重卡环比大增 ——行业月报(2024 年 11 月) 投资要点 ❑ 行业近况: 2024 年 11 月:中汽协显示 11 月重卡销量约 6.9 万辆,同/环-3.66%/+3.16%;天然 气重卡销量约 1.14 万辆,同/环比-25.07%/+27.89%,月度渗透率为 16.58%,终结 了自 8 月以来"四连降"的局面。新能源重卡销售约 1.01 万辆,同/环比 +117%/+21.89%,领 ...
钢铁周报:政策空窗期,预计商品价格窄幅震荡
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-06 00:23
2025 年 01 月 05 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 曲β緯 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 证券研究报告 钢铁周报:政策空窗期,预计商品价格窄幅震荡 行业评级:看好 ● 沥商证券股份有限公司 HANG SECURITIES CO.LTD 价格 | | | | (浙商金属】钢铁周度数据(2025年1月5日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | 上证指数 | | 3.211 | -5.6% | -4.2% | | | 沪深300 | | 3.775 | -5.2% | -4.1% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2,023 | -6.3% | -3.8% | | मेक्ट | | SW普钢指数 | 2,006 | -5.9% | -3.8% | | ...
通信:海外AI点评报告-GB300升级的投资机会
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-05 14:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The GB300 is expected to be released in mid-2025 and is anticipated to become the main product line, following the GB200 which had limited shipments in Q4 2024 and is expected to ramp up in Q1 2025 [1] - The GB300 will feature a 50% increase in computing performance and a 17% increase in power consumption compared to its predecessor, the GB200, with a single card power consumption of 1.4kW [1][2] - The network card will be upgraded from CX7 to CX8, with 1.6T optical modules becoming standard, leading to significant improvements in network scale and performance [3] - The modular design of the GB300 will allow for greater flexibility in assembly and replacement, potentially attracting more suppliers in various components [4] Summary by Sections Product Release and Performance - GB300 is expected to be unveiled at the GTC conference in March 2025, with shipments anticipated by mid-2025 [1] - The upgrade includes a 50% increase in computing performance and a 17% increase in power consumption, with the single card power consumption reaching 1.4kW [1] Network and Cooling Enhancements - The GB300 will feature an upgraded network card (CX8) and standard 1.6T optical modules, which will enhance network investment as cluster sizes increase [3] - The design will incorporate more liquid cooling systems and advanced power supply technologies to ensure system safety during power outages [2] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as optical modules, cooling systems, power supplies, copper connections, and testing services, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [4]
环保与公用事业行业周报:鼓励工业领域低碳氢应用,南网首批新型电力系统示范区建成
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-05 14:23
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 公用事业 报告日期:2025 年 01 月 05 日 鼓励工业领域低碳氢应用,南网首批新型电力系统示范区建成 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 本周(12 月 30 日~1 月 3 日),公用事业板块指数上涨 1.95%,跑赢沪深 300 指 数 4.92%;环保板块指数上涨 0.37%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.34%。截至 2025 年 1 月 3 日,公用事业(申万)PE(TTM)为 16.82 倍,PB(LF)为 1.48 倍;环保 (申万)PE(TTM)为 20.11 倍,PB(LF)为 1.34 倍。 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业,本周重点关注个股组合:中广核技+佛燃能源+中闽能源。 重点推荐:中广核技。 推荐理由:1)政府首次出台核技术应用顶层设计政策,大力支持下行业发展有望 提速。2)公司背靠中广核集团,有望获各项资源的加持,未来业务或与核电、新 能源等领域产生协同,充分契合公司"向高端转型、向高附加值转型"的发展战 略。3)公司乘央企改革东风,持续推进存量处理处置以剥离无关资产,并加大外 延业务整合力度,协同赋能动作持 ...
检测检验行业2025年度策略:检测检验:期待拐点向上,重视新兴领域
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-05 14:23
证券研究报告 检测检验:期待拐点向上,重视新兴领域 行业评级:看好 检测检验:政策端持续发力,期待拐点向上,重视新兴领域 1、2024年检测行业基本面偏弱,板块以个股行情为主,行业估值处于底部。 2 • 基本面偏弱:2024年前三季度,行业营收增速分别为3.9%、6.3%、2.0%,归母净利润增速分别为-14.8%、-12.7%、-2.2%。2024年前三季度,15家检测行业公司整体盈 利能力下滑,毛利率为42.11%,同比-0.22PCT;净利率10.79%,同比-1.43PCT。重点公司华测检测、广电计量、东华测试毛利率提升;广电计量、东华测试净利率提升。 业估值仍处于底部区域:PE29倍,PB2.5倍,分别处于历史PE6.3%分位、PB3.9%分位 。 • 2024年,检测检验板块下跌11%,跑输上证指数25PCT,弱于绝大部分机械子板块,大部分个股跑输上证指数(+14%),广电计量、电科院、中国电研涨幅居前三。行 2、2025年投资机会展望:检测行业长坡厚雪,政策端持续发力,短中期关注下游景气底部回升、科技创新方向,长期看好综合性检测龙头 95% • 检测行业是国家质量基础设施的重要组成部分,需求刚性 ...
医药生物行业周跟踪:2025年医药流通还有超额收益么?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-05 12:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector [4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical distribution sector is the lowest in terms of holdings and valuation among sub-sectors, yet it was the second-best performing sector in 2024, particularly with leading companies continuing to rise [21][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential for excess returns in the pharmaceutical distribution sector in 2025, driven by various factors including improved accounts receivable issues, accelerated consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, and the emergence of new business models [2][8]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical distribution sector is experiencing a recovery phase, characterized by a low valuation and a unique growth opportunity within the broader pharmaceutical industry [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Pharmaceutical Distribution - Pharmaceutical distribution is noted as having the lowest valuation among sub-sectors, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.48 as of January 3, 2025 [21]. - The sector's market performance in 2024 was relatively strong, with a year-on-year decline of only 2.24%, ranking second among sub-sectors [21][23]. 2. Changes Observed in 2024 - The report identifies a clear market structure in the pharmaceutical distribution sector, with a continuous supply-side clearing leading to more stable earnings [23]. - The concentration ratio (CR5) for the pharmaceutical distribution industry increased to 51.3% in 2023, indicating a trend towards greater market consolidation [23][28]. 3. Predictions for 2025 - The report forecasts improvements in accounts receivable issues, which have historically suppressed valuations [2]. - It anticipates that mergers and acquisitions will continue to drive concentration in the sector, enhancing the competitive landscape [2][28]. - New business models, such as Contract Sales Organizations (CSOs), are expected to play a significant role in performance differentiation among companies [2][28]. 4. Policy Tracking - The report notes recent policy developments, including the introduction of a price comparison tool for pharmacies, which may impact market dynamics [3]. 5. Market Performance Review - The pharmaceutical sector's index showed a decline of 5.55% in the week of December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, underperforming the broader market [4][6]. - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has decreased, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 25.51, down 1.46 from the previous period [6].
主动量化周报:资金流动只造成短期扰动,看好节前机会
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-05 12:23
资金流动只造成短期扰动,看好节前机会 ——主动量化周报 证券研究报告 | 金融工程点评 金融工程点评 报告日期:2025 年 01 月 05 日 核心观点 春节前 V 型走势确定性进一步提高,接下来一周是重要的建仓期。此前下跌受汇率、 政策预期等多维度影响,总结来说为预期层面下修调整带来资金流出,且下跌过程中 出现一定放量。因此,我们判断市场底部出现的时间会有所提前,未来一周或是最佳 建仓期。 ❑ 如何看待春节前 A 股投资机会? 市场有望提前见底,未来一周或是最佳建仓期。近一周市场调整的主要催化剂包 括:1)美元大幅走强,人民币汇率承压,或使得外资趋于流出;2)市场担忧部 分微盘股的退市风险,风险偏好整体回落;3)中央经济工作会议落地后,短期 缺乏重要会议催化,政策预期有所下修。总结来看,即为预期层面的下修调整带 来资金流出。从结构上看,沪深 300、中证 2000 分别下跌 5.2%、9.7%,以中证 2000 为代表的小盘股延续了 2024 年 12 月 13 日以来的调整态势,走势显著偏 弱。此外,此前调整过程中,中证 2000 指数整体缩量,而 1 月 2 日-3 日却出现 小幅放量。前期报告《2 ...
A股市场运行周报第:保持克制,继续守时待机
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-05 08:23
核心观点 本周市场普跌。展望后市,由于本周主要宽基指数下行速度较快,导致市场技术形态 受到一定程度损伤,预计短期内仍有震荡整理的需求,指数大概率通过"反弹/反抽-回 踩确认"的方式进行整理。考虑到这种整理结构需要一定"时间"来完成,加之北证 50、国证 2000 等小盘指数仍在整理结构中,我们预计农历春节之前市场大概率会维持 上述震荡整理格局,春节前后有望出现中线底部结构。配置方面,建议投资人"保持 克制,继续守时待机"。这里的"克制"包括两方面:一方面是保持冷静,切勿在当前 位置盲目杀跌。目前上证指数最低至 3205 点,距离下方突破缺口(3087-3152)仅一 步之遥,在该位置杀跌毫无必要。另一方面是保持耐心,选择合适的抄底时机。由于 当前主要宽基指数技术形态都受到不同程度损伤,且以北证 50 和国证 2000 为代表的 小盘股指数仍在调整,建议投资者冷静待机,待权重指数、成长指数同步调整到位、 形成中线底部结构之后再行增配。 ❑ 本周(2024-12-30 至 2025-01-03)行情概况 (1)主要指数:本周市场普跌,成长指数跌幅更大。(2)板块观察:一级行业全 数下跌,红利风格相对扛跌。(3)市 ...