A 股策略周报 报告日期：2024 年 10 月 19 日 反弹如期至，操作随势行 ——A 股市场运行周报第 13 期 核心观点 本周市场先抑后扬，主要指数全部上涨。展望后市，随着周五市场的强势反弹，10 月 8 日以来的日线下跌趋势已经结束，后市大概率将针对 3674 点回落以来的走势进行同 级别的日线反弹。但以当前交易量而言，大盘短期内大概率不会挑战 10 月 8 日的阶段 高点，预计未来 1 至 2 周，市场大概率将是"日线反弹-日线震荡"的格局。配置方面， 建议投资者继续沿着"金融+科技"两条主线，短期内以区间震荡的思维进行操作，不 断降低持仓成本，为"三部曲"中的第三段拉升做好准备。 ❑ 本周（2024-10-14 至 2024-10-18）行情概况 （1）主要指数：市场先抑后扬，主要指数全部上涨。（2）板块观察：科技板块涨 幅居前，食品饮料跌幅居首。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比下降 34.8%，股指合 约升贴水不一。（4）资金流向：两融余额 1.59 万亿、融资买入占比下降。（5）量 化"黑科技"：主要指数估值处于合理区域，下跌能量模型处于正常水平。 ❑ 本周行情归因 （1）总书记讲话强调科技重要 ...

给端政策》 2024.10.17 债务限额和债务余额的关系是怎样的？ ——财政发力系列研究之三 核心观点 根据《中华人民共和国预算法》规定，无论是中央政府还是地方政府，举借的债务 实行余额管理，余额的规模不得超过全国人民代表大会批准的限额。对于中央政 府而言，需要在全国人民代表大会批准的限额内，决定发债规模、品种、期限和时 点的管理方式。对于地方政府而言，其政府债务限额包括一般债务限额和专项债 务限额，二者均不得突破国务院批准的限额。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | 食品饮料 | 报告日期： 2024 年 10 月 19 日 | | 牛市食饮不缺席，关注 Q3 业绩分化 | | 投资要点 食饮观点：我们认为牛市食饮板块不缺席，此前我们已经强调"先β后α" 食饮板块或迎上涨三阶段，当前我们认为已经进入第二阶段，应密切关注三 季报分化下 Q3 业绩较强的标的，后续第三阶段重视具备穿越周期能力&业 绩确定性较强较优的龙头标的投资机会，25 年春节或迎来验证期。 白酒板块：中秋国庆白酒动销承压的悲观预期已释放，更应关注后续增速可 持续及宏观政策催化下的预期转向，选股思路在风险偏好提升下从高股息稳 健资产转向兼顾基本面和弹性的进攻策略，推荐三条主线，首推基本面较强 的 200-400 元价位以汾酒、古井为代表的头部酒企投资机会：①龙头白马组 合：主推贵州茅台/五粮液/泸州老窖；②弹性组合：推荐山西汾酒/古井贡酒/ 迎驾贡酒/今世缘/老白干酒。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Views - The active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) sector has consistently outperformed the broader pharmaceutical index since April 30, 2024, driven by supply-demand dynamics and global competitiveness [1] - The API sector has shown strong performance over the past decade, particularly in 2017, 2019-2021, and 2023-present, due to factors such as environmental regulations, public health events, and industrial upgrades [1] - The report is optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the API sector, citing the industry's development stage, growth space, and global competitiveness [1] Sector Performance and Key Drivers 2017: Environmental Regulations and Supply Constraints - Environmental pressures led to supply shortages, causing price increases for key API products like vitamins and antibiotic intermediates [1] - Companies like Shengda Bio, Zhejiang Medicine, and Xinhecheng benefited from the price hikes, with significant stock price increases [1] 2019-2021: Public Health Events and Supply Chain Management - The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains, leading to increased demand for APIs from China as Indian manufacturers faced shutdowns [1] - Companies like Aoxing Pharmaceutical, Sitagliptin, and Puluo Pharmaceutical saw strong performance due to their ability to manage supply chains and meet global demand [1] 2023-Present: Industrial Upgrades and Price Increases - The API sector is experiencing a recovery, with companies benefiting from industrial upgrades, synthetic biology, and forward integration [1] - Companies like Xinhuowei, Saituo Bio, and Zhejiang Medicine have seen strong performance due to product price increases and industrial transformation [1] Investment Recommendations Bulk APIs - Focus on companies with concentrated supply, stable demand, and rising product prices, such as Chuanning Bio and Guobang Pharmaceutical [4] Specialty APIs - Invest in companies undergoing industrial upgrades, such as forward integration or CDMO transformation, with emerging second growth curves, including Puluo Pharmaceutical, Xianju Pharmaceutical, and Aoxing Pharmaceutical [4] Policy and Market Trends Healthcare Reform - The healthcare reform in China is entering a deep-water zone, with a focus on improving grassroots medical services and reforming public hospitals [5] - The reform emphasizes balancing basic healthcare coverage with innovation promotion, with stricter regulations on medical insurance payments [5] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market in 2024, with a cumulative decline of 10.3% year-to-date [6] - The API sub-sector outperformed, with a 3.0% increase in the week of October 14-18, 2024, driven by chemical APIs and biologics [6] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with a PE ratio of 26.77x as of October 18, 2024 [6] - The report highlights opportunities in sectors like ophthalmic services, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical devices, driven by aging demographics and policy support [6] Key Companies to Watch - Companies with strong resource, brand, or licensing advantages, such as Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Dong-E-E-Jiao, and Tongrentang [9] - Companies with proven product iteration capabilities, such as Enhua Pharmaceutical and Kelun Pharmaceutical [9] - API companies benefiting from supply-side reforms, including Aoxing Pharmaceutical and Xianju Pharmaceutical [9]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 交通运输 | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 交通运输 | 报告日期： 2024 年 10 月 19 日 | 投资要点 ❑ 本周交通运输行业行情回顾： 1）在 30 个中信一级行业中，本周（10 月 14 日-10 月 18 日），交通运输行业累 计涨跌幅为+0.09%，位列第 25 位；沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+0.98%。 2）在 285 个中信三级行业中，本周（10 月 14 日-10 月 18 日）板块累计涨跌幅： 物流综合(+2.91%）、公路（+1.90%）、快递（+0.55%）、铁路 (+0.43%）、港 口(-0.25%）、航空 (-0.95%）、机场(-1.51%）、航运 (-1.94%）。 3）境外股市表现：10 月 18 日，香港恒生指数收 20804.1 点，10 月 14 日-10 月 18 日涨跌幅为-2.11%，道琼斯工业指数收 43275.91 点,本周涨跌幅为+0.96%。 4）油价及汇率变化情况：截至 10 月 18 日， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 饲料 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | 饲料 | 报告日期： 2024 年 10 月 19 日 | | 宠物食品系列（2）：从产品线全面梳理看龙头核心优势 | | 投资要点 ❑ 需求端持续发力，行业集中度有待提升 猫狗数量实现双升，宠物猫更受青睐。2023 年城镇宠物犬数量为 5175 万只，较 2022 年增长 1.1%，宠物猫数量为 6980 万只，较 2022 年增长 6.8%。猫和狗作为 宠物市场的两大支柱，近五年城镇猫狗总数量年增长率保持在 4%左右，带来宠 物行业需求端的不断扩大。 品牌集中度较低，国产品牌推动集中。2023 年宠物粮（猫粮+犬粮）品牌 CR10 仅为 24.2%，距离海外成熟市场集中度有较大差距，此外近年来随着一级市场融 资难度加大，新兴品牌减少，行业份额亦走向集中。 ❑ 猫粮：主粮量价齐升，高端化需求促进产品升级 主粮：消费升级趋势显著，国产品牌集中在中端价 ...

财务摘要 海康威视(002415) 报告日期：2024 年 10 月 19 日 回购+增持，坚定长期信心 ——海康威视点评 投资要点： ❑ 股东拟合计增持公司股票 3-5 亿元 公司发布公告，公司控股股东中电海康集团及其一致行动人电科投资基于对公司 未来持续稳定发展的信心和长期投资价值的认可，为增强投资者信心，计划自公 告之日起 6 个月内，通过集中竞价交易方式增持公司 A 股股票。其中：中电海康 集团拟增持 2-3 亿元、电科投资拟增持 1-2 亿元。增持计划不设置固定价格区 间，增持主体将基于对公司股票价值的合理判断，择机实施增持计划。 ❑ 董事长提议回购公司股票 20-25 亿元 公司发布公告，公司董事长胡扬忠先生提议公司以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股 票，拟回购金额 20-25 亿元，回购价格不超过 40 元/股，对应回购比例 0.54%- 0.68%，回购实施期限为自公司股东大会审议通过回购股份方案之日起不超过 12 个月内，回购的股份拟全部注销并减少公司注册资本。 ❑ 公司未来发展前景信心坚定 我们认为，此次公司回购+股东增持同步发布，体现出公司管理层及股东对于公 司业务发展前景、长期盈利能力及投资 ...

Investment Rating - Ping An Bank is rated as "Buy" with a target price of CNY 14.00 per share, representing a 16% upside from the current price [3][5] Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, with significant improvement in liability costs, but asset quality remains under pressure [3] - The bank's net profit for 24Q1-3 grew by 0.2% YoY, while revenue declined by 12.6% YoY, showing a slight improvement compared to 24H1 [3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.06% at the end of 24Q3, with a provision coverage ratio of 251%, down by 13 percentage points from 24H1 [3] Financial Performance - Net interest margin (NIM) for 24Q3 decreased by 5bps QoQ to 1.87%, with liability costs improving by 10bps QoQ to 2.10% [3] - Asset yield declined by 15bps QoQ to 3.91%, driven by a 23bps drop in personal loan rates and industry-wide rate reductions [3] - Other non-interest income grew by 52.6% YoY in 24Q1-3, but the growth rate slowed by 4 percentage points QoQ [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 1.06% at the end of 24Q3, while the overdue and special-mention loan ratios increased by 15bps and 12bps, respectively [3] - The real NPL generation rate (TTM) rose by 14bps QoQ to 2.65%, with retail loans and corporate real estate loans being the main pressure points [3] - The write-off rate for 24Q1-3 was 176%, up by 6 percentage points YoY, indicating increased efforts in NPL disposal [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Ping An Bank's net profit is expected to grow by -0.02%, 0.26%, and 3.86% YoY for 2024-2026, with BPS of CNY 21.77, 23.87, and 26.01, respectively [3] - The current price implies a PB of 0.55x, 0.50x, and 0.46x for 2024-2026, with a target PB of 0.64x for 2024 [3] Key Financial Ratios - ROAE is projected to be 10.77%, 10.06%, and 9.57% for 2024-2026, while ROAA is expected to be 0.81%, 0.77%, and 0.75% [16] - The cost-to-income ratio is forecasted to remain stable at 27.90% for 2024-2026 [16] - The capital adequacy ratio is expected to be 12.63%, 12.38%, and 12.44% for 2024-2026, with a core tier 1 capital ratio of 9.13%, 9.50%, and 9.82% [16]

财务摘要 资料来源：Wind，浙商证券研究所 瑞鹄模具(002997) 报告日期：2024 年 10 月 17 日 在手订单充足、新业务量产有序推进，营收与归母双高增 ——瑞鹄模具三季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 事件：公司发布 2024 年第三季度财务报告。24Q1-24Q3 公司营业收入 17.26 亿 元，同增 32.99%；归母净利润 2.53 亿元，同增 63.66%；扣非归母净利润 2.30 亿元，同增 71.42%；EPS 为 1.23 元/股。其中，单三季度营收 6.05 亿，同增 37.97%；归母净利润 0.91 亿元，同增 41.61%；扣非归母净利润 0.77 亿元，同 增 37.55%；EPS 为 0.43 元/股。 ❑ 零部件业务陆续量产，营业收入与归母净利润均实现高增。2024 年 1-9 月公司 营收增长较快，主要系公司 2023 年末汽车制造装备业务在手订单较上年末增 长，带来公司业务规模同比增加；公司深度绑定奇瑞，根据 Markline 数据，奇 瑞集团 24M1-24M9 销量约为 151 万辆，同比增长 29%，看好奇瑞与华为合作的 智界 R7 及其他合作可能，随着下游客户车型 ...

海通发展(603162) 报告日期：2024 年 10 月 18 日 Q3 业绩持续亮眼，船队实力拾级而上 ——海通发展 2024 年三季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 公司公告 24 年三季报：24Q3 营业收入 9 亿元，同比+125%，实现归母净利润 1.7 亿元，同比+849%。前三季度归母净利润合计 4.1 亿元，同比+171%。 ❑ 运价指数同比持续提升 24Q3，BDI 指数平均 1871，同比+57%，BSI 均值 1320，同比+45%。预计公司在 精选航线、精细化运营下，报告期内持续实现超额收益。 ❑ 顺应市场变化趋势，保持较快运力引进 船型日渐全面，打造干散领域领军企业：公司 Q3 购置 2 艘 Capesize、3 艘 Panamax 干散货船。这两类船型相较小型船舶能够以更低的单位成本运输更多货 物，且在干散货航运市场周期向上的背景下，有望释放出强劲利润空间。 运力结构：根据公司公告，截至 2024 年 10 月，公司拥有 2 艘 Capesize，3 艘 Panamax，42 艘 Supramax，长期期租 19 艘 Supramax。运力规模在国内干散货运 输的企业中排名前列。 ❑ 往后， ...