Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - A V-shaped reversal in coal prices is anticipated, with winter prices expected to reach 800 CNY/ton. The long-term contracts are supporting spot prices, and policy-driven sentiment is leading to significant price increases. The long-term contract prices for September are 674, 613, and 551 CNY/ton for 5500, 5000, and 4500 kcal respectively, with the CCI index showing slight variations [6][26] - The coal market is expected to see a balance between supply and demand gradually, with prices steadily rising. The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry and suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in coking coal and coke sectors [6][26] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 3.59% as of September 19, 2025, while the index fell by 0.44%, resulting in a 4.03 percentage point outperformance. A total of 24 stocks in the sector rose, with Yongtai Energy showing the highest increase of 13.42% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.22 million tons for the week of September 12-18, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 5.3%. The average daily production was 7.18 million tons, also up 4.8% week-on-week and 4.4% year-on-year [2][24] Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 676 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The import price index for thermal coal was 812 CNY/ton, up 4.5% week-on-week. Prices at various ports and production areas also showed increases [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, up 3.9% week-on-week, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 1216 CNY/ton, reflecting a 6.9% increase [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total coal inventory monitored was 25.54 million tons as of September 18, 2025, a decrease of 1% week-on-week and 6% year-on-year. The cumulative sales volume of key monitored enterprises was 180.46 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year [2][24] - The report indicates that the demand from the power and chemical industries has varied, with coal consumption in the power sector down 2.9% year-on-year, while the chemical sector saw an increase of 16% [2][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the thermal coal sector such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal. It also highlights companies in the coke sector that are expected to see profit improvements [6][26]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 21 日 7 天期逆回购利率的政策基准定位更加清晰 ——流动性与同业存单跟踪 核心观点 央行公告将公开市场 14 天期逆回购操作调整为多重价位中标，意味着 7 天期逆回购 利率的政策基准定位更加清晰，亦表明 9 月底央行或投放 14 天期逆回购资金助力跨 季资金宽松，同时关注资产负债更为稳健的大行获取 14 天期逆回购资金成本是否会 更低。 ❑ 7 天期逆回购利率的政策基准定位更加清晰 9 月 19 日，央行发布公开市场业务 2025 年第 3 号公告，"为保持银行体系流动 性充裕，更好满足不同参与机构差异化资金需求，即日起，公开市场 14 天期逆 回购操作调整为固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标，操作时间和规模将根据流 动性管理需要确定"。我们认为，主要有这三点影响： ❑ 风险提示 货币政策超预期变动；海外主要央行货币政策变更后对国内市场产生外溢效应； 狭义流动性向广义流动性加速传导。 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/12 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 第一，进一步明确了 7 天 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company is positioned as a core component supplier in "Deep Sea Technology," benefiting from the upturn in the shipbuilding and offshore oil and gas sectors, while floating wind power presents significant growth opportunities [1][2] - The floating wind power market is expected to enter a commercialization phase by 2030, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70% from 2024 to 2030, and an estimated market space of approximately 14.3 billion in 2034 [2][3] - The offshore oil service sector has seen a significant increase in new orders, with approximately 39,500 tons of new orders in the first half of 2025, indicating a high order volume and favorable market conditions [3] - The shipbuilding industry is entering a mid-cycle upturn, driven by a combination of replacement cycles and environmental regulations, leading to increased demand for ship anchor chains [3] Summary by Sections Market Expectations - The floating wind power market's commercialization timeline remains uncertain, while the price elasticity of ship anchor chains is relatively low compared to new ship prices [2] Project Insights - Currently, there are five operational floating offshore wind projects, with three more in progress in China, indicating a growing interest in this sector [2] - The global floating wind power market is projected to add 1.03 GW of new installed capacity by 2030, with significant growth expected through 2034 [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 317 million, 399 million, and 485 million from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 26%, and 22% respectively, with a CAGR of 20% [6][13] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 30, 23, and 19 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][13] Unique Insights - The report highlights a shift in market perception regarding the company's revenue sources, now recognizing the potential of floating wind power alongside traditional ship and offshore oil service chains [5] - The company is positioned as a key player in the shipbuilding sector and a strong candidate in the wind power components market, suggesting a robust investment opportunity [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading express delivery service in Southeast Asia, following the expansion of Chinese e-commerce giants into international markets. The anticipated rapid establishment of new sites and higher-than-expected GMV growth will drive the company's global network development and volume growth, replicating its success in Southeast Asia to new markets such as Latin America and the Middle East [1][2]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market - The e-commerce GMV in Southeast Asia is expected to reach approximately $306.26 billion in 2025, growing by 28.5% year-on-year, with an e-commerce penetration rate projected to rise to 24.9% [2]. - The company achieved a package volume of 3.23 billion items in Southeast Asia in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, maintaining a market share of 32.8% [3]. - Revenue in Southeast Asia for H1 2025 was $1.97 billion, representing a 29.6% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted EBIT of $230 million, up 74.0% year-on-year [3]. New Markets - The company entered new markets in the Middle East and Latin America in 2022, with the GDP of these markets expected to reach $5.8 trillion by 2025. The e-commerce retail market in these regions is projected to grow by 23.6% year-on-year, reaching $163.55 billion [4]. - In H1 2025, the company’s package volume in new markets increased by 21.7% to 166 million items, with a market share of 6.2% [5]. - The company has established partnerships with international e-commerce platforms such as Temu, Shein, TikTok, AliExpress, and Shopee in new markets [5]. China Market - The company has seen a recovery in domestic profits due to price increases, with over 80% of the market share in China announcing price hikes. The industry is expected to experience a seasonal uptick in prices, supporting the company's profitability [12]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the company are $400 million, $710 million, and $950 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.3, 15.5, and 11.5 [13][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts rate cuts, the probability of the domestic central bank "following suit" to cut rates increases, with a higher probability of implementation after the end of October. After three consecutive months of adjustment, the current bond market has shown initial signs of stabilization. In the fourth quarter, bond market interest rates may start a new round of smooth decline. Investors are advised to defend and counterattack, and enter the market at around 1.8% of the 10-year Treasury bond [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Observation - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the expectation of the central bank's monetary easing strengthened, and the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate showed an "N" shape. The impact of the equity market on the bond market has gradually weakened, and investors' expectation of the central bank's loose monetary policy has strengthened [11]. 3.2 External Constraints Weaken: "Room for Maneuver" Opens - On September 18, the Fed cut the federal benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.0% - 4.25% range, the first rate cut since late 2024. Since mid-July 2025, the narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate spread and the weakening of the US dollar have reduced the risk of capital outflows, improved the domestic liquidity environment, and opened up room for the central bank to cut rates. However, it is necessary to prevent the side effect of "rapid RMB appreciation → decline in export competitiveness" [12][16]. 3.3 Internal Constraints Remain: Low Bank Interest Margin + Rising Real Interest Rate - Currently, rate cuts still face the dual constraints of "low bank net interest margin + rising real interest rate". As of June 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks has dropped to a historical low. A significant rate cut may lead to higher real interest rates, which will inhibit consumption and investment to some extent [20]. 3.4 Rate Cuts Are Approaching: Higher Probability After the End of October - After the Fed's rate cut, the probability of the domestic central bank cutting rates increases, but the pace, magnitude, and method will be "domestically oriented", with a higher probability of implementation after the end of October. If the GDP and credit data in the third quarter continue to weaken and the Fed cuts rates again in October, it may be a better time for the central bank to cut rates comprehensively [27][28]. 3.5 Bond Market Asset Performance No specific content analysis provided in the text, only some data chart descriptions. 3.6 High-Frequency Entity Tracking: Food Prices Differentiate, Energy Costs Rise - **Price-related**: This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index declined slightly, international crude oil prices rose, vegetable and meat prices mostly declined, and fruit prices rose [45]. - **Industry-related**: This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose, glass and coking coal prices increased, and the blast furnace operating rate and petroleum asphalt operating rate showed differentiation [51]. - **Investment and Real Estate-related**: This week, investment and real estate-related data remained weak, with a decline in the land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities and a slight increase in the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities. The decline of the second-hand housing listing price index slowed down, and the cumulative increase in the housing completion area increased but was still lower than the same period in previous years [59]. - **Travel and Consumption-related**: This week, travel and consumption data recovered seasonally, with an increase in the subway passenger volume in first-tier cities, a decline in movie box office revenue, a 3.5% increase in passenger car retail sales compared with the same period last month, and a slight increase in the number of domestic flights [67].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance pressure in the liquor industry, particularly in the first half of 2025, with a focus on the upcoming festive season as a potential opportunity for investment [1][2][3] Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the liquor industry experienced a revenue decline of 0.8% year-on-year, totaling 241.42 billion yuan, with the second quarter seeing a more significant drop of 4.9% to 88.06 billion yuan due to policy impacts [9][10] - High-end liquor maintained growth with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half and 3.4% in the second quarter, while mid-tier and regional brands faced substantial declines, with some experiencing drops as severe as 31.1% [10][12] - The overall net profit for the liquor industry decreased by 1.18% in the first half and 7.5% in the second quarter, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [20][28] Short-term Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the upcoming festive season, with expectations of improved sales performance despite ongoing pressures [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for liquor companies to balance market share and structural upgrades while managing pricing and sales dynamics [2][3] Long-term Outlook - The liquor index shows a strong correlation with the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a potential turning point noted in August 2025, which could signal a recovery phase for the industry [2][3] - The report indicates that the liquor sector possesses high return on equity (ROE) and dividend characteristics, with valuations currently positioned in the mid-to-lower range of the industry [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands that are expected to perform well during the festive season, including high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as mid-tier brands like Zhenjiu Lidong and Luzhou Laojiao [3][4] - It suggests that the current market conditions may present a buying opportunity as the industry approaches a potential bottom in performance expectations [3][4]

Core Views - The market experienced a pullback this week, with increased volatility, primarily due to the weakness in the large financial sector and divergence in broad indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not achieved the expected upward movement and is now in a "central oscillation" phase, with previous low points at 3732 and 3702 providing effective support [1][2][3] - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite will continue to consolidate for 1-2 weeks, with the potential to challenge the maximum amplitude since 2015 (5178-2440) at the 0.618 level in Q4 2025, contingent on smooth market rotation [2][3] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 1.30%, 1.98%, and 0.44% respectively, while growth indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw slight increases of 0.32% and 0.21% [10][53] - The technology sector dominated, with significant gains in hard technology-related industries such as electric new energy, electronics, and communications, which rose by 3.61%, 2.75%, and 1.01% respectively. In contrast, the financial sector faced declines, with banks and non-banking financials down by 4.09% and 3.80% [13][54] - Market sentiment improved with an increase in average daily trading volume to 2.49 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance continued to rise, reaching 2.40 trillion yuan [21][27] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market included a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the TikTok issue, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and stable economic performance in China for August, with industrial value-added growth at 5.2% year-on-year [51][52] Future Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to undergo a consolidation phase for 1-2 weeks, with previous low points providing support. The market's ability to form a healthy rotation among sectors will be crucial for future upward movement [2][55] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and consider increasing allocations post-adjustment, particularly favoring real estate, infrastructure, and social services while reducing exposure to technology and media sectors [3][56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The offshore wind sector is expected to reach its peak in Q3, driven by optimistic domestic and international market conditions. Global offshore wind auction capacity is projected to reach 56.3GW in 2024, with an additional 100GW expected in the next two years. In China, the acceleration of offshore wind project construction since Q2 is anticipated to lead to a short-term performance realization in Q3 [1][2] - The profitability of components is expected to be strong due to the trend of larger wind turbines and expansion into overseas markets. The domestic wind turbine market is experiencing a shift towards larger models, leading to a temporary shortage of large components and increased bargaining power, resulting in excess profits in the component sector [2] - The turbine manufacturers are focusing on profit recovery and international expansion. Many turbine companies are entering a profit recovery phase, with improved cost structures and increased market demand. The price of wind turbines is expected to rise further, driven by a focus on quality and lifecycle economics [3][4] Summary by Sections Offshore Wind Market - The global offshore wind auction capacity is projected to reach 56.3GW in 2024, with an additional 100GW expected in the next two years. European countries are accelerating offshore wind projects, with significant increases in the number of grid-connected projects starting from 2026 [1] - In China, the acceleration of offshore wind project construction since Q2 is expected to lead to a performance realization in Q3, supported by policies promoting the "marine economy" and the advancement of deep-sea demonstration projects [1] Components Sector - The trend towards larger wind turbines is creating a temporary shortage of large components, enhancing the bargaining power of component manufacturers and leading to excess profits [2] - Domestic leading companies in the component sector are actively expanding into overseas markets, with significant increases in overseas orders expected to contribute to performance growth [2] Turbine Manufacturers - Turbine manufacturers are focusing on profit recovery through improved cost structures and increased market demand. The price of wind turbines is expected to rise further, driven by a focus on quality and lifecycle economics [3] - In 2024, domestic wind turbine exports are projected to reach 5.19GW, with cumulative exports expected to reach 20.79GW by the end of 2024. Companies like Goldwind and Mingyang Smart Energy are achieving breakthroughs in overseas markets [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include: - Offshore wind infrastructure and towers: Dajin Heavy Industry, Haili Wind Power, and Tiensun Wind Energy - Submarine cables: Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric - Castings and forgings: Jinlei Co., Riyue Co., and Guangda Special Materials - Turbine manufacturers: Goldwind, Yunda Co., Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy [5]

Overview - The report highlights that the consumer electronics sector is focusing on the 2025 replacement cycle, with AI applications gradually being implemented [3][7] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid growth in AI computing power, necessitating domestic production capabilities [3][14] Consumer Electronics - The global smartphone market is showing signs of weak recovery, with a 1% year-on-year decline in Q2 2025, totaling 288.9 million units shipped [22] - The iPhone 17's design and price-performance improvements are expected to drive consumer purchases, benefiting the supply chain [7][22] - AI glasses are anticipated to see significant growth, with a 216% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2025 [76][78] - The foldable phone ecosystem is maturing, with cost reductions and brand promotions leading to increased shipments [13][73] Semiconductor - The global AI infrastructure investment visibility is improving, with major cloud providers optimistic about CAPEX growth for 2026 [14][15] - The demand for SoC chips is expected to rise due to government policies promoting AI applications [15] - Domestic semiconductor manufacturing is crucial, with advancements in wafer fabrication and packaging technologies [16] - The semiconductor materials sector is benefiting from the expansion of domestic wafer fabs, driving demand for materials [16] Key Technologies - The report emphasizes the importance of innovations in battery technology, such as silicon-carbon anodes and steel shell structures, to enhance device performance [12][49] - The introduction of LTPO technology in displays is expected to improve power efficiency and is being adopted across various smartphone models [63] - Optical innovations, including the introduction of a true 1-inch CMOS sensor and dual-periscope lenses, are set to enhance camera capabilities in smartphones [64][71] Strategic Expansion - The report notes the strategic expansion into humanoid robots and electric vehicles, highlighting the interdependence of the consumer electronics supply chain [85][89] - The AI computing hardware market is witnessing significant investments, indicating a competitive landscape among major players [91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Views of the Report - The probability of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading is increasing, and it is worth expecting the central bank to announce the restart of Treasury bond trading within the year. The expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading may lead to a decline in long - term interest rates [1][4]. - If the central bank restarts buying bonds, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fall below 1.70%, similar to the situations in the first half of 2015 and 2019 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Reasons for the Increasing Probability of the Central Bank Restarting Treasury Bond Trading - **Tool Establishment Intention**: When the central bank's Treasury bond trading operation was set up, it had the implication of being a normal monetary policy tool. Currently, the interest rate is in a stable range - bound state, which provides a market foundation for the central bank to resume normal operations. In early 2025, the central bank suspended this operation, perhaps due to the rapid decline in interest rates [1][11]. - **Institutional Design**: The central bank's draft for soliciting opinions in July 2025 removed the freeze on collateral for bond repurchases. Coupled with the recent extension of the maturity of large banks' Treasury bond purchases from within 3 years to 3 - 5 years, if the central bank restarts Treasury bond trading, the pressure on large banks to "sweep the market" will decrease, and the impact on short - and medium - term interest rates may be systematically reduced [2][15]. - **Current Necessity**: Although the immediate need to restart Treasury bond trading from the perspective of liquidity is relatively low, given the limited room for further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and the stable operation of the bond market, there is a need to resume normal long - term liquidity adjustment through Treasury bond trading. It is difficult to normalize the function of adjusting the interest rate curve, and the necessity of selling long - term bonds for adjustment is insufficient [3][18]. 3.2 Impact of the Central Bank Restarting Treasury Bond Trading - **Impact on Liquidity**: Restarting Treasury bond trading may be a "icing on the cake" operation. Even if the central bank does not restart, inter - bank liquidity is expected to remain stable and abundant. The central bank's short - and medium - term liquidity injection is obvious, and corporate foreign exchange settlement and fiscal factors will lead to endogenous liquidity easing in Q4 [4][30]. - **Impact on the Bond Market Strategy**: If the central bank restarts buying bonds within the year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fall below 1.70%. The expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading may lead to a decline in long - term interest rates [4][31]. 3.3 Other Related Points - **Function Importance Ranking**: The importance ranking of the functions of central bank Treasury bond trading is: liquidity management > cooperation with Treasury bond issuance > adjustment of the interest rate curve [18]. - **Judgment on Future Operations**: The central bank's Treasury bond trading as a liquidity management tool has the implication of being normal. Currently, the necessity of restarting is slightly insufficient, but it can be launched in small amounts in advance. The removal of the freeze on collateral for bonds will reduce policy costs and systematically reduce the impact on short - and medium - term interest rates [27].