Group 1: Industry Overview - The gold industry is rated positively, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities[1] - The report includes forecasts for gold production from listed companies in the industry for the years 2025 to 2027[3] Group 2: Company Performance Metrics - Shandong Gold is projected to produce 50 tons of gold in 2025, with a market value of 166.4 billion yuan, resulting in a market value per ton of 3.33 billion yuan[3] - Zijin Mining is expected to produce 87 tons in 2025, with a total market value of 787.2 billion yuan, equating to a market value per ton of 9.05 billion yuan[3] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Shandong Gold's production from 2024 to 2027 is estimated at 10%[3] - The CAGR for Zijin Mining's production over the same period is projected at 8%[3] Group 3: Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected expansion rates for companies in the industry[5] - Gold price increases may not meet expectations, impacting profitability[6] - Production estimates are based on certain assumptions, which may lead to deviations from actual outcomes[6]

Market Overview - On November 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.35%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.57%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.28%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.92%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.55% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 10 were beauty care (+3.6%), food and beverage (+3.22%), retail (+2.69%), social services (+2.09%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+2.05%). The worst-performing sectors were power equipment (-1.09%), machinery (-0.71%), electronics (-0.51%), telecommunications (-0.5%), and automotive (-0.47%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 10 was 2.1944 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.654 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with CPI and PPI showing weak performance. CPI is expected to rise further, while PPI is recovering at an accelerated pace, driven by weather changes and rising lamb prices [5] - The recommended asset allocation for November prioritizes A-shares over US stocks, gold, convertible bonds, domestic bonds, and US bonds [6] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Visual China (000681), which is accelerating its AI strategic transformation through investments in hardware chips, generative AI tools, and global financing [2][11] - The company plans to issue H-shares for listing in Hong Kong by 2026 to enhance its global presence and broaden financing channels to support AI research and overseas market expansion [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 610 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.30%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 74.31 million yuan, down 9.03% year-on-year. The short-term profit pressure is mainly due to cyclical adjustments in the advertising industry. However, AI-driven creative customization business revenue has become a new core income and profit growth point [1][2] - The company's strategic focus is on accelerating its transformation towards an "AI intelligence + content data + application scenarios" strategy, leveraging its vast copyright data barrier (over 700 million compliant contents) through investments in hardware chips, generative AI tools, and global financing to seize key positions in the multimodal AI ecosystem [1][2] - The company plans to issue H shares and list in Hong Kong in 2026 to strengthen its global layout and broaden financing channels to support AI research and development and overseas market expansion [2] Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 840 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 121 million yuan, 147 million yuan, and 168 million yuan. The P/E ratios are projected to be 129, 105, and 93 times for the same years [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cosmetics industry continues to show differentiation, with brand demand being weak in the off - season, agents seeking change in difficult situations, and producers seizing supply - chain reconstruction opportunities. The medical aesthetics industry has new entrants with better - than - expected shipments, and new product catalysts are worth attention [3][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cosmetics: Continued Differentiation 3.1.1 Brand Merchants - In 1 - 3Q25, beauty brand merchants' revenue was 28.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; personal care brand merchants' revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. In 3Q25, beauty and personal care brand merchants' revenues were 8.05 billion and 1.805 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% and an increase of 7.6% respectively. Beauty revenue weakened quarter - on - quarter, while personal care remained flat [18] - Beauty: Affected by the earlier Double Eleven promotion, consumer enthusiasm declined in September, and brands reduced live - streaming activities. In terms of single - quarter revenue growth, Shuiyang Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jahwa increased by over 20%, Marubi Co., Ltd. had double - digit growth, Proya had low - double - digit decline, and Betaine and Freda had high - single - digit decline [18] - Personal care: Runben Co., Ltd.'s Q3 revenue increased by 17% year - on - year, with a slight increase in growth rate quarter - on - quarter. Baiya Co., Ltd.'s 3Q25 revenue improved, and Dengkang Oral Care had steady growth [18] - In 1 - 3Q25, beauty brand merchants' net profit after non - recurring items was 2.33 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15%; personal care brand merchants' was 604 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Some companies showed initial cost - control effects [24] 3.1.2 Agents - Agents are seeking change in difficult situations by exploring three paths: incubating self - owned brands (represented by Ruoyuchen), using AI to reduce costs and increase efficiency (represented by Yiwow), and expanding high - growth categories (such as Qingmu Technology expanding into trendy toy agency operations) [30] - Ruoyuchen's self - owned brands Feicui and Zhanjia continued to gain momentum. In Q3, self - owned brand revenue was 451 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 344.5%, accounting for 55.1%. Zhanjia's Q3 revenue was 227 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 119%, and 1 - 3Q revenue was 680 million yuan. Feicui's Q3 revenue was 203 million yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of over 98.8%, and 1 - 3Q revenue was 362 million yuan [30] 3.1.3 Producers - Demand continued to recover, and the revenue of the producer sector increased by 9%, 17%, and 30% year - on - year from Q1 to Q3, with the growth rate increasing quarter by quarter [33] - QingSong Co., Ltd. focused on optimizing customers and product structure, and its profit turned positive for four consecutive quarters from 2Q24 to 1Q25. Jieya Co., Ltd. had increasing orders from overseas big customers, and its Q3 performance growth accelerated. Jiaheng Home Co., Ltd. increased revenue but not profit, mainly due to the short - term impact of the Huzhou base's capacity ramp - up [33] 3.2 Medical Aesthetics: New Entrants with Better - than - Expected Shipments 3.2.1 Upstream Consumables - The growth rate of demand expansion slowed down, and supply - side competition intensified. In terms of the cumulative number of Class III medical device approvals, hyaluronic acid > regenerative (Sculptra/Poly - L - Lactic Acid) > botulinum toxin > recombinant collagen. Old products of hyaluronic acid and regenerative types faced growth pressure, and the growth rate of recombinant collagen Class III medical device products slowed down significantly quarter - on - quarter [38] - Hyaluronic acid: Aimeike's revenue growth rate from 24Q1 to 25Q3 was + 28.2%/+2.3%/+1.1%/ - 7%/ - 18%/ - 25%/ - 21% year - on - year, showing a quarterly decline since 24Q2 [38] - Collagen: Jinbo Biotech's revenue growth rate from 24Q1 to 25Q1 was + 76%/+100%/+92%/+73%/+63% year - on - year, and in 2Q25/3Q25, it was + 30%/+13% year - on - year. On October 23, the "Recombinant Type I α1 Subtype Collagen Freeze - Dried Fiber" Class III medical device certificate of Giant Biogene was approved by NMPA [38] - Leapmed Medical's medical aesthetics shipments were better than expected, with Q3 medical service and health management business revenue of 320 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28%, and the revenue of Sculptra and Hydrodermabrasion reaching 86.1367 million yuan [36] 3.2.2 Downstream - The new model of Xinoxygen Medical Clinics showed high - growth potential. The Q3 revenue guidance was 150 - 170 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 231% - 275%, and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4% - 18%. It plans to implement the "100 - City, 1000 - Store" plan in the long term [40] - Stores are expanding from first - tier cities to new first - tier and second - tier cities. As of November 6, it covered 42 stores in 10 cities. The promotion of self - owned brands was remarkable, and it cooperated with Xihong Miracle Sculptra 3.0, priced at 2999 yuan, which was officially launched on September 25 [43] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Brands with upward potential and both growth and certainty: Recommend Maogeping (Oriental aesthetics, dual - wheel drive of makeup and skincare, and the second - curve of perfume is worth looking forward to) and Shangmei Co., Ltd. (with one cornerstone brand, five growth brands, and N seed businesses) [8][46] - Companies with new product pipelines and expected performance elasticity: Pay attention to Giant Biogene and Leapmed Medical [8][46] - Companies in strategic adjustment and expected to reach an inflection point: Recommend Shuiyang Co., Ltd. (the effect of high - end transformation is gradually emerging), and pay attention to Shanghai Jahwa, Betaine, and Freda [8][46]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights ShenGong Co., Ltd. (688233) as a leading supplier of electronic-grade monocrystalline silicon materials, benefiting from the overall supply chain improvement due to the storage cycle, with a global market share of approximately 15% [4] - The expected revenue for ShenGong from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 471.2 million, 803.5 million, and 1,308.4 million CNY, with growth rates of 55.6%, 70.5%, and 62.8% respectively [4] - The report also emphasizes Tongli Co., Ltd. (920599) as a global leader in mining wide-body vehicles, with anticipated steady growth driven by the penetration of new energy and autonomous driving technologies [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The macroeconomic report discusses the relationship between equity markets and the real economy, suggesting that while short-term market movements can diverge from fundamentals due to policy and liquidity factors, long-term sustainability relies on fundamental support [9] - The report indicates that the current market state is complex, with a focus on balanced allocation and observation of key signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and the performance of brokerage stocks [10] - The bond market analysis reveals that the spread between national development bonds and government bonds has widened significantly for maturities of 3 to 5 years, indicating a shift in the central bank's primary bond purchasing focus [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company has launched the world's first humanoid intelligent logistics robot, marking a new era in smart logistics [1] - The humanoid robot integrates efficient wheeled movement with dexterous human-like operations, capable of various tasks such as box transfer and stacking [1] - The company has a strong market position as a leading forklift manufacturer in China, with significant growth potential in humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles [3] Summary by Sections Product Launch - The humanoid intelligent logistics robot was showcased at the CeMAT ASIA 2025 exhibition, featuring 22 degrees of freedom and advanced perception technologies [1] - The robot can operate in unstructured environments and handle various types of boxes, addressing the limitations of traditional automation equipment [1] Technical and Market Advantages - The company acquired a 99.23% stake in Zhejiang Guozi Robot, enhancing its technological capabilities for humanoid robots and smart logistics [2] - The extensive sales network includes over 80 direct sales companies and 600 authorized dealers, providing comprehensive services globally [2] - The company has over 50 years of manufacturing experience and is implementing smart manufacturing to reduce costs [2] Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.22 billion, 2.56 billion, and 3.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 15%, and 18% respectively [4] - Revenue forecasts for the same period are 16.49 billion, 18.15 billion, and 20.39 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 1%, 10%, and 12% [5] Industry Context - Global forklift sales increased from 990,000 units in 2013 to 2.14 million units in 2023, with a CAGR of 8.0% [3] - The market for autonomous forklifts is expected to grow significantly, with sales reaching approximately 30,700 units in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 52% from 2019 to 2023 [3]

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of November 8 is 4.7%, slightly down from the revised value of 5.0% last week, indicating a slowdown in economic growth[10] - The service and industrial high-frequency indicators have both declined compared to last week[12] Production Sector - The industrial weekly prosperity index has decreased to 8.0% from 8.2%[11] - The service sector's weekly prosperity index has dropped to 2.9% from 3.4%[11] Demand Sector - Overall consumption and fixed asset investment have weakened, while exports have shown resilience, with container throughput rising to 671.8 thousand TEUs from 590.3 thousand TEUs last week, marking a significant increase[55] - The real estate market has seen a significant decline, with new home sales in 30 major cities dropping to 120.2 million square meters, a 43% decrease week-on-week and a 49% year-on-year decline[48] Price Trends - Consumer prices for agricultural products have shown a marginal increase, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.76% week-on-week[61] - The average price of pork has increased by 0.78% week-on-week, while the prices of key vegetables have risen by 2.16%[61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for November is A-shares > US stocks > Gold > Convertible bonds > Chinese bonds > US bonds [1]. - Event shocks are the core clues for global large - scale asset trading. The Sino - US trade friction has temporarily ended, but the game between expected and actual negotiation results may continue. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but internal differences among Fed officials on the subsequent monetary policy path exceed market expectations. The lack of economic data due to the US government shutdown and the dilemma of balancing inflation and the labor market pose a decision - making dilemma for the Fed. The market's continuous pre - emptive trading on interest rate cuts since August has led to a divergence in interest rate cut expectations, which may trigger adjustments in interest - rate - sensitive assets such as US bonds and gold, and these adjustments may mean more cost - effective allocation opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Macro Trading Main Line - **Sino - US Trade Friction Repeated**: The Sino - US trade friction heated up due to disputes over ship charging policies and rare earth export control policies. After a series of confrontations, both sides released signals of easing. The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the suspension of relevant export control and investigation measures for one year, and the cancellation of a 10% fentanyl tariff. The global risk - aversion sentiment first rose and then fell, affecting large - scale asset prices. Understanding market expectations is the key to grasping event - shock market trends [11][12][13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation Changes**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected on October 30, but there was a rare three - way divergence in voting. Powell indicated that a December interest rate cut is not certain. The lack of major economic data due to the US government shutdown makes the Fed's decision - making difficult. The market's relatively consistent expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to show divergence, which is reflected in the reversal of the US bond yield and the adjustment of gold prices. The end time of the US government shutdown is a key factor affecting the December interest rate cut decision, and the divergence may mean better trading opportunities [24][25][28]. 3.2 Monthly Asset Performance Review - **Equity**: In October, Japanese stocks were the strongest, and Hong Kong stocks were the weakest, with the overall performance being Japanese stocks > US stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points in October but faced difficulties in further short - term breakthroughs. The small - cap stocks performed well, and the market embraced dividend - low - volatility sectors while technology - growth sectors faced pressure. US stocks: They were mixed, but technology stocks showed strong momentum, with a short - term inflection point after the release of technology stocks' third - quarter reports and the Fed's FOMC meeting. Japanese stocks: The Nikkei 225 index rose 16.64% in October, driven by factors such as postponed interest rate hikes, "Takamachi Sanae trading" expectations, and the depreciation of the yen. Hong Kong stocks: They rose and then retreated, and the Hang Seng Technology Index significantly underperformed A - share technology stocks [35][40][43]. - **Bonds**: Except for Japanese bonds, the yields of major national government bonds in the world declined to varying degrees in October. Chinese bonds: The yield fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by stock market adjustments, Sino - US tariff games, and the central bank's resumption of buying and selling government bonds. US bonds: The yield first declined and then rose, with the US government's credit crisis, Sino - US friction, and the game on the December interest rate cut expectation as key variables. Japanese bonds: They weakened slightly after the "Takamachi Sanae trading" in October, with the expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies offsetting each other, and the government bond curve first steepened and then flattened [56][63][73]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals such as gold and silver first rose and then significantly adjusted in October, driven by factors such as cooling sentiment, over - valuation, and the rebound of the US dollar index. The prices of black - series commodities and new - energy materials showed limited upward momentum. Black - series commodities: Rebar prices remained low due to weak real estate and infrastructure, while coking coal and coke rose slightly due to anti - involution policies. New - energy materials: The prices of lithium carbonate and polysilicon fluctuated significantly with changes in expectations of anti - involution policies [75][86]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index strengthened in October, and the US dollar and US bonds continued to deviate. The strengthening of the US dollar index was mainly due to the weakening of overseas currencies such as the euro and the yen. The RMB continued to appreciate slightly in October, affected by factors such as the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, better - than - expected export data, and strong stock index performance [89][93]. 3.3 Monthly Macro Events Overview - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was successfully held from October 20 to 23, 2025, and the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was officially announced on October 28, providing a direction for future five - year development [101]. - Takamachi Sanae was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan on October 21. The "Takamachi Sanae trading" heated up, driving the Japanese stock market to rise continuously in October, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 16.64% in a single month, while the yen exchange rate was significantly under pressure [102]. - Global major central banks held interest rate meetings in the last week of October. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but there was a large divergence among officials on the December interest rate cut decision. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, and two policy committee members opposed it. The European Central Bank also remained on hold for the third consecutive time, maintaining the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and lending facility rate unchanged [104][106][107].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that commodity prices align with seasonal expectations, and equity trends reflect positive market sentiment [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,998 with a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date increase of 19.3% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,737 with a weekly increase of 4.4% and a year-to-date increase of 30.2% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) price is at 3,200 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.3% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 105 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 4.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,074,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0% and a year-to-date increase of 41.7% [6] - Total inventory at steel mills is 429,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 0% and a year-to-date increase of 22.4% [6] - Port inventory of iron ore is 14,895,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.4% [6] Supply and Demand - The report highlights the weekly production of five major steel products and daily average molten iron output, indicating ongoing production levels [9][12] - The report also discusses the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across the country, reflecting the industry's capacity utilization [11][12]

Inflation Data - October CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of -0.1% and prior forecasts of 0.1%[1] - October PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, an improvement from -2.3% in the previous month, also above market expectations of -2.3%[7] Price Movements - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting CPI by approximately -0.54 percentage points[3] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with service prices increasing by 0.8%[3] Sector Analysis - Significant price increases were observed in gold jewelry, with prices rising by 50.3% for gold and 46.1% for platinum, driven by sustained demand and new tax policies[4] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of slowing, with the production index at 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a shift in asset performance, with a transition from technology growth stocks to low-volatility dividend stocks as risk appetite declines[1] - Bond yields are anticipated to decrease in Q4 due to weakening fundamentals and potential monetary easing as risk preferences shift[1]