证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 关注成长板块的配置价值 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 中期维度，政策催化下慢牛预期依然稳固，权益市场风险偏好近期逐步回升，科技板 块转债作为高弹性品种，其股性价值有望得到进一步巩固。在资产荒格局延续的背景 下，"固收+"资金对转债，特别是具备成长确定性的科技品种，配置需求依然旺盛。 ❑ 转债市场走势先下后上，整体呈现成交缩量、区间震荡，估值压缩。 近期在债券市场的持续调整下，纯债基金的赎回规模明显放大，市场流动性收缩 明显，带动固收+基金赎回规模同步扩大，但转债市场通过估值波动熨平债券市场 震荡影响，总体持仓体验更优。中期维度，虽然转债供给持续缩量，但市场增量 资金充足，预计转债估值回调空间有限，同时随着投资者止盈预期接近尾声，权 益慢牛预期下市场对于高估值的标的容忍度有所提升。 ❑ 近期市场缩量盘整，但科技板块成交依旧活跃，量价均已呈现企稳态势。 10 月以来，科技板块跟随股市同步调整，虽然板块转债估值被动收缩，但依旧呈 现较为明显的抗跌性；万得可转债信息技术指数近两月回调 2.43%，表现整体优 ...

Core Insights - The market continues to rebound, but with increased volatility. The expectation is for a range-bound market due to significant gains in Q3 and the lack of a leading narrative or sector driving the market upward [1][4][52] - The strategy suggests a "wait and see" approach, avoiding chasing prices and setting targets based on key index levels, while selectively entering positions [1][5][54] Market Overview - Major indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 increased by 0.37%, 1.09%, and 1.28% respectively. The ChiNext Index rose by 1.86% [2][12][52] - The materials sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, saw a significant increase of 5.07%, while consumer sectors experienced declines [14][52] - Market sentiment showed a slight decrease in trading volume, with average daily turnover at 1.68 trillion yuan, down from the previous week [20][52] Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector, identified as a "key eye" in the market, rose by 2.33%, contributing to the overall market rebound [14][53] - The home appliance sector, which had lagged in the current bull market, increased by 1.73%, marking it as the only industry index to reach a new high in the past three weeks [53] Fund Flows - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.48 trillion yuan, with a rise in the proportion of financing purchases to 9.9% [26][52] - The stock ETF saw a net outflow of 6.5 billion yuan, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest inflow [26][52] Valuation Metrics - The current PE ratios indicate that the market is generally reasonably valued, with the ChiNext Index at a relatively low valuation percentile of 38.04% [44][52] - The downward energy model shows that the market's downward energy is at a normal level, indicating no immediate sell signals [45][52]

Group 1: Central Bank Objectives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to "improve the modern central banking system," with a notable shift to explicitly include "economic growth" as a primary goal alongside currency stability and financial stability[1] - The dual-pillar framework will provide tools and institutional support for both currency stability and financial stability, marking a significant evolution in the central bank's objectives[3] - The adjustment in primary objectives reflects a structural recalibration, aligning legal requirements with modern central banking discourse, enhancing consistency between law and practice[19] Group 2: Macro-Prudential Management - The macro-prudential framework is expected to evolve along three main lines: objectives, tools, and mechanisms, focusing on systemic stability rather than individual risk management[3] - The macro-prudential toolbox will be systematized, with increased attention to stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, enhancing the central bank's ability to manage systemic risks[3] - The central bank's focus will shift from temporary crisis management to regular expectation management and emergency arrangements, improving its crisis response capabilities[26] Group 3: Interest Rate Marketization - China's interest rate marketization has progressed through three stages: price liberalization, establishment of a rate transmission system, and refined price control[31] - The future evolution of the interest rate corridor is expected to tilt operational target rates from DR007 towards DR001, enhancing liquidity management and tool innovation[38] - The central bank is likely to explore conditional liquidity tools for non-bank institutions to provide support during extreme market fluctuations, preventing irrational spikes in short-term rates[5] Group 4: Capital Market Development - The "Five Major Articles" will shift focus towards three main lines: from tool coverage to institutional construction, from credit-led to a balanced approach between equity and debt financing, and from central bank-led initiatives to collaborative efforts across multiple policies[8] - The emphasis on direct financing through equity and bond markets aims to enhance the capital market's functionality, aligning it with the needs of the real economy[9] - The development of a direct financing system centered on technology enterprises will focus on deepening equity financing and thickening bond markets[9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.3%, and the STAR Market 50 rose by 1.4% on Thursday [5][7] - The best-performing sectors included machinery (+0.9%), electronics (+0.8%), defense and military (+0.6%), communication (+0.5%), and non-ferrous metals (+0.3%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.1%), beauty and personal care (-1.9%), social services (-1.6%), retail (-1.6%), and textiles and apparel (-1.4%) [5][7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15,490 billion, with a net inflow of 1.48 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [5][7] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Chaojie Co., Ltd. (301005) as a hidden champion in automotive fasteners, with growth potential in commercial aerospace [3][8] - The company supplies fasteners for multiple modules in new energy vehicles and has become a supplier for major domestic and international automakers such as Xiaomi, NIO, BYD, and Tesla [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 808.11 million, 1,085.33 million, and 1,448.97 million yuan, with growth rates of 28.23%, 34.30%, and 33.51% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 48.27 million, 60.99 million, and 92.42 million yuan, with growth rates of 354.73%, 26.35%, and 51.53% respectively [8] Important Insights - The annual industry strategy report on batteries indicates an accelerated supply-demand balance, with a focus on cyclical growth [6][9] - There is strong demand for energy storage batteries, although growth in power batteries may face pressure. Capital expenditure in the lithium battery and main material sectors has rapidly declined since 2024, limiting effective supply increases [9] - The report anticipates that the electric vehicle electrification rate for commercial vehicles will exceed market expectations, driving demand for power batteries [9] Important Commentary - The automotive parts industry is experiencing a similar macroeconomic backdrop and industrial phase as seen in previous years, which may create investment opportunities [4][11] - Key investment opportunities include core components of humanoid robots, which are expected to have significant price appreciation potential, similar to the rise seen in new energy vehicle components from 2019 to 2021 [11] - Catalysts for investment include Tesla's production milestones, domestic robot orders, and unexpected advancements in robot technology [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2][47]. Core Insights - The report draws parallels between the current state of the humanoid robot industry and the electric vehicle (EV) industry in 2019, suggesting that similar macroeconomic conditions and industry stages could lead to significant investment opportunities [5][6]. - The humanoid robot market is projected to reach $700 billion by 2030, while the EV market is expected to be approximately $547.2 billion by 2024 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of core components and domestic manufacturers in both industries, highlighting that the core components of humanoid robots still have considerable upside potential [7][38]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Context - The macroeconomic environment in 2019 and 2025 shows similarities, with both periods experiencing stable liquidity and trade tensions between the US and China [10][14]. - The report notes that the impact of trade tensions has diminished over time, with the capital market showing resilience despite fluctuations [15][16]. Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical juncture, with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities expected to drive growth [19][33]. - The report identifies key players in the humanoid robot sector, including Tesla, which is poised to lead the market similar to its role in the EV industry [27][30]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are categorized into core components and domestic manufacturers, with a focus on identifying companies with strong fundamentals and market positioning [34][39]. - The report suggests that the core components of humanoid robots are likely to see price increases, similar to the trajectory observed in the EV sector [38]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the rapid growth of domestic manufacturers in the humanoid robot space, indicating a shift from concept validation to commercial production [31][33]. - It emphasizes the importance of market timing, particularly regarding the listing of new players in the humanoid robot market, which could mirror the trends seen in the EV industry [41].

Core Insights - The new public fund benchmark regulations clarify the principles for selecting performance benchmarks and enhance the disclosure standards, emphasizing the daily constraints of performance benchmarks. It is expected that a significant proportion of equity public funds will need to adjust their performance benchmarks in the second half of 2026 [1][15][16] - An exclusive "benchmark selection tool" has been developed, using "Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road" as a case study to analyze and select the most suitable performance benchmark based on six dimensions: winning rate, winning quality, matching degree, winning degree, excess stability, and balancing pressure. The analysis concludes that the most suitable benchmark for Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road is the CSI 800, with other options including CSI 1000, CSI A500, CSI 500, and CSI All Index [1][8][38] Dimension Summaries Dimension 1: Winning Rate - The winning rate is defined as the proportion of years the fund outperformed all benchmarks since its inception. A higher winning rate indicates the fund's ability to consistently outperform the benchmark across various market conditions. For Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road, the winning rates against benchmarks like CSI 800 and CSI 1000 are around 80% [2][17] Dimension 2: Winning Quality - The quality of the benchmark is assessed using the Sharpe ratio, which indicates the risk-adjusted return. A higher Sharpe ratio for the benchmark signifies a more challenging standard for the fund to outperform. Benchmarks such as CSI New Energy and CSI Chip Industry have high Sharpe ratios above 0.5, while others like CSI 800 Medical and CSI All Index are lower [3][19] Dimension 3: Matching Degree - The matching degree measures the correlation between the fund and various benchmarks. A higher correlation indicates a better alignment between the fund's investment strategy and the benchmark. Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road shows a high correlation of 0.91 with the Shenzhen Composite Index [4][22] Dimension 4: Winning Degree - The winning degree is represented by the average annual excess return of the fund compared to the benchmarks. Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road has an average annual excess return exceeding 10% against several benchmarks, indicating strong alpha generation capabilities [5][24] Dimension 5: Excess Stability - Excess stability is evaluated through the information ratio, which reflects the fund's ability to generate stable excess returns with minimal active risk. Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road has high information ratios against benchmarks like CSI 300 Growth and Consumer Services, indicating stable performance [6][28] Dimension 6: Balancing Pressure - Balancing pressure is assessed by the total deviation of the fund's industry allocation from the benchmark. A lower total deviation indicates lower rebalancing costs and market impact. Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road shows low total deviations against several benchmarks, suggesting manageable rebalancing pressures [7][31] Optimal Benchmark Output - Based on the six evaluation dimensions, the "benchmark selection tool" indicates that the CSI 800 is the theoretical optimal performance benchmark for Guotou Ruijin New Silk Road. Other high-scoring benchmarks include CSI 1000, CSI A500, and CSI All Index, which should be considered by fund managers for a comprehensive evaluation [8][38]

- The **Macroeconomic Scoring Model** is used to assess asset allocation preferences based on macroeconomic factors. It evaluates domestic and global conditions, including monetary policy, inflation, and credit, to generate asset-specific timing views. For December, the model turned cautious on the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds due to tightening domestic monetary conditions, while maintaining a positive outlook on the S&P 500, crude oil, and copper[18][19][20] - The **US Equity Timing Model** monitors economic indicators and market sentiment to identify optimal entry points for US equities. It highlights that, before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, uncertainty around rate cuts may suppress risk appetite. However, fiscal expansion post-government reopening could stabilize the economy, presenting potential buying opportunities if equity prices decline[21][22][24] - The **Gold Timing Model** tracks factors such as fiscal pressure, central bank policies, and global de-dollarization trends. The latest indicator value is -0.54, reflecting marginal weakening due to reduced fiscal expansion. However, the model suggests that gold's medium-term upward trend remains intact, supported by global de-dollarization and potential rate cut expectations[25][26][27] - The **Crude Oil Timing Model** evaluates demand, inventory levels, macro risks, and investor sentiment. The current oil sentiment index is -0.1, indicating a cautious outlook. While global demand shows marginal improvement, other factors, including inventory and macro risks, have weakened, suggesting a deteriorating fundamental outlook for crude oil[27][29][31] - The **Asset Allocation Strategy** uses quantitative signals and macro factor adjustments to allocate risk budgets across asset classes. For November, the strategy achieved a return of -0.2%, with a 12.2% return over the past year and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%. The December allocation reduced exposure to the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds while increasing allocations to the S&P 500, gold, and copper[3][32][34] Model Backtesting Results - **Macroeconomic Scoring Model**: December views include cautious stances on the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds, while maintaining positive views on the S&P 500, crude oil, and copper[18][19][20] - **US Equity Timing Model**: Indicates medium-term opportunities for US equities post-Federal Reserve meeting, contingent on fiscal expansion and economic stabilization[21][22][24] - **Gold Timing Model**: Latest indicator value is -0.54, with medium-term support from global de-dollarization and potential rate cut expectations[25][26][27] - **Crude Oil Timing Model**: Current sentiment index is -0.1, reflecting a cautious outlook due to weakening fundamentals[27][29][31] - **Asset Allocation Strategy**: November return of -0.2%, 12-month return of 12.2%, and maximum drawdown of 2.9%. December allocation adjustments include increased exposure to the S&P 500, gold, and copper, with reduced exposure to the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds[3][32][34]

Group 1 - The core logic of the report emphasizes optimism for the communication sector in 2026, focusing on opportunities in computing power, telecom operators, and satellite internet [10][11] - The report suggests a stock selection strategy that includes recommendations for companies in various segments such as networking, optical devices, liquid cooling, and copper connections [11] - The report highlights the expected dividend yields for major telecom operators, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom projected to have dividend yields of approximately 6.3%, 5.5%, and 5.1% respectively for Hong Kong stocks [11] Group 2 - The report identifies operational risks related to AI demand growth not meeting expectations, which could slow down the conversion speed of enterprise-level AI solutions and affect infrastructure procurement [12][13] - It discusses the potential deterioration of the competitive landscape in AI hardware, as increased capital expenditure by global tech companies may lead to intensified competition [18][19] - The report notes risks associated with the satellite internet sector, particularly regarding the uncertainty of capital expenditure and the maturity of the industry [23][24] Group 3 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, including major telecom operators, which are characterized by stable growth, high dividends, and technological growth [30] - It highlights specific risks for individual companies, such as the potential decline in gross margins for Zhongji Xuchuang due to increased competition in the 800G market [31][32] - The report also addresses the risks for companies like Yingwei and Kexin, focusing on market competition and the challenges of expanding into overseas markets [38][40]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 03 日 交易性择时每日一图版本更新说明 ——债市专题报告 核心观点 本报告在原有交易性择时体系基础上进行多资产扩展。自 9 月以来，交易性择时策略 在趋势阶段对利率下行行情形成了较高覆盖度，在回调与震荡时期则主动收敛暴露， 体现出右侧确认与趋势跟随框架下的稳健性。本次迭代进一步引入权益、黄金与商品 择时信号，实现多市场间的交叉验证，有望提升利率交易方向识别的有效性、降低择 时失真与回撤水平，并在复杂宏观环境下增强策略执行与风险管理能力。未来策略优 化将增强空头过滤功能，并加强复合信号在震荡阶段的稳定性。 ❑ 9 月以来交易性择时信号回顾 交易性择时模型在利率下行周期保持了对趋势行情的高敏感度，各类信号在关键 阶段呈现出较强一致性，并在多个交易窗口连续触发复合信号，在捕捉利率主升 段方面表现突出。近期随着利率企稳回调，模型信号明显收敛甚至短暂消失。该 现象并非策略失效，而是由于策略本身逻辑并不承担主动做空判断，而是基于右 侧确认选择降低暴露度，以避免震荡期的无效交易和频繁换手，更好地体现了策 略在复杂行情中的 ...

Market Overview - On December 2, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.48%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.24%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.69%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.24% [4] - The best-performing industries on December 2 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+0.71%), Light Industry Manufacturing (+0.55%), Home Appliances (+0.43%), Building Materials (+0.32%), and Communications (+0.27%). The worst-performing industries were Media (-1.75%), Nonferrous Metals (-1.36%), Computers (-1.34%), Pharmaceuticals & Biology (-1.23%), and Electric Equipment (-1.18%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on December 2 was 1,607.3 billion yuan, with net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 4.101 billion HKD [4] Important Recommendations Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126) - The company is a leader in automotive thermal management, expanding into AI liquid cooling and robotics, which presents new growth opportunities. The company is expected to benefit from increased penetration of new energy vehicles and recovery in commercial vehicles [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 15,210.97 million yuan, 17,951.52 million yuan, and 20,977.59 million yuan, with growth rates of 19.75%, 18.02%, and 16.86% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 973.05 million yuan, 1,254.89 million yuan, and 1,577.07 million yuan, with growth rates of 24.19%, 28.97%, and 25.67% respectively [5] Hangyang Co., Ltd. (002430) - The company is a leading player in the industrial gas sector in China, positioned for both cyclical and growth opportunities. The gas industry is at a cyclical low, with potential for upward performance in the future [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 15,053 million yuan, 17,137 million yuan, and 19,561 million yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 14% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 1,067 million yuan, 1,298 million yuan, and 1,513 million yuan, with growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17% respectively [8] Key Insights Energy Metals Industry - The lithium industry is expected to enter a supply-demand tight state after 2026, with lithium prices likely to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 100,000 yuan. Investment opportunities in the lithium sector are recommended [9] Green Computing - The report emphasizes the importance of green computing from three dimensions: hardware efficiency, energy efficiency, and application synergy. Short-term focus should be on liquid cooling technology and high-density servers, while long-term attention should be on integrated systems and collaborative platforms [10][11] - The demand for AI model training is driving the need for green transformation, with significant cost pressures on data center operations due to high electricity costs [12]