6 March 2025 | 10:18PM HKT China: Two Sessions Comment 3: Top policymakers reiterated supportive stance and provided some more implementation details Bottom line: This afternoon (6 March), the heads of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Finance (MOF), Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), PBOC and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a joint press conference on 2025 economic policies. Top policymakers reiterated their supportive stance and provided some more implementa ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but highlights significant revenue growth in AI infrastructure-related companies, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2][3]. Core Insights - There is a notable divergence between the annualized revenue growth of public companies involved in AI infrastructure, which increased by over $340 billion from 2022 to Q4 2024, and the real investment in AI-related categories in the US GDP, which only rose by $42 billion during the same period [2][3]. - The report suggests that a substantial portion of the revenue increase is attributed to cost inflation and foreign revenue, which do not contribute to real GDP growth [6][9]. - Methodological issues in the US national accounts may lead to an underestimation of the impact of AI-related investments on real GDP, with an estimated potential understatement of around $100 billion [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Annualized revenue for public companies exposed to AI infrastructure build-out increased by over $340 billion from 2022 through Q4 2024, with projections suggesting a further increase to $580 billion by the end of 2025 [2][3]. - The increase in real investment in AI-related categories in the US GDP accounts was only $42 billion during the same period, raising questions about the apparent disconnect between revenue and GDP growth [3][4]. Cost Inflation and Foreign Revenue - A significant portion of the revenue increase is driven by cost inflation, particularly in semiconductors, and foreign sales, which account for nearly half of the reported AI spending surge [6][9]. - Margin expansion is estimated to explain around $30 billion of the overall revenue increase, with foreign revenue contributing approximately $130 billion [9][17]. Methodological Considerations - The report discusses the commodity-flow approach used in US national accounts, which may misclassify semiconductor purchases as intermediate inputs rather than investments, leading to an underrepresentation of actual investment in GDP [11][12]. - The surge in cloud services used for AI model training is also likely underreported in GDP calculations due to their classification as intermediate inputs [14][15]. - The report concludes that while there is potential for AI-related investment to provide a moderate boost to real US GDP in 2025, much of the investment in semiconductors and cloud computing will likely remain unmeasured unless there are changes in national accounting methodologies [22].

7 March 2025 | 7:37AM HKT The 720: JD.com, China Two Sessions, China Brokers, Adani Port, Asics, Ryohin Keikaku, SK Hynix, European Strategy In Focus | JD.com Caleb Chan +852-2978-0790 | caleb.chan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Goldman Sachs The 720 JD.com - 4Q24 First Take: Strong beat with JD Retail market share gains; eyes on 2025 outlook - Buy (on CL). JD reported strong 4Q24 results beat above GS and sell-side estimates (V.A.) across top line, profit growth and fre ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that broad fiscal targets are in line with expectations, but the special bond issuance quota has been missed, indicating potential challenges in fiscal policy implementation [7] - It emphasizes that total fiscal support is crucial for economic stability and growth, suggesting that the effectiveness of fiscal measures will significantly impact the industry [9] - The report discusses uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and their potential impact on trade dynamics, particularly a 20% increase in tariffs this year, which could affect the industry significantly [15] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Fiscal Policy**: The report notes that while broad fiscal targets are met, the failure to meet special bond issuance quotas could hinder economic support [7] - **Economic Support**: It stresses the importance of total fiscal support in driving economic recovery and stability, indicating that the current measures may not be sufficient [9] - **Trade Dynamics**: The report outlines the implications of increased US tariffs on China, which could lead to significant shifts in trade patterns and affect the industry adversely [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant vulnerability in Asian companies correlated with Nvidia, particularly in the technology and financial sectors, suggesting a cautious investment stance [3][10][14]. Core Insights - Nvidia experienced an 8.7% decline, marking its second drop of over 8% in three days, driven by tariff fears and potential export controls to China [3]. - A notable correlation exists between Nvidia and Bitcoin at 91.5%, indicating that liquidity plays a crucial role in price movements [4][5]. - The weakening price momentum of Nvidia suggests that equities must continue to rise to justify their positions in investment portfolios, especially in a high-yield bond environment [7]. - Asian companies with high correlations to Nvidia include TSMC (98%), Mediatek, Hon Hai, ASE, Softbank, and Hynix, indicating a concentrated risk in the tech sector [10][11]. - Financial institutions in Australia and China also show significant correlations with Nvidia, highlighting unexpected vulnerabilities in the financial sector [14][20]. Summary by Sections Correlation Analysis - The report highlights that over 35% of India's Nifty index has a correlation greater than 90% with Nvidia, affecting companies like ICICI Bank and State Bank of India [20]. - TSMC's correlation with Nvidia is particularly high at 98.2%, making it and the Taiwan Stock Exchange vulnerable to Nvidia's performance [11][25]. Market Positioning - Current positioning suggests that Nvidia bulls are facing a critical test, with potential declines leading to significant impacts on correlated stocks and indices [23][24]. - A drop in Nvidia's stock price to $100 could lead TSMC to fall towards $850, affecting the TWSE and indicating Taiwan's unique vulnerability [25][26].

3 March 2025 | 9:10PM GMT Growth expectations across markets have been repriced sharply lower already (Exhibit 3). While the reset in expectations happened across regions, it was sharper in the US, which switched from being the region with the strongest (in late January) to the one with the lowest growth pricing. This re-set growth pricing has been broad across US sentiment reset - weaker growth expectations drive more non-US outperformance assets (Exhibit 4). For example, 10y inflation swaps moved lower ac ...

28 February 2025 | 8:50PM GMT Commodity Analyst Commodity Investing 101 n Stronger case for commodities futures, but choose wisely. The decade following the financial crisis offered only muted commodity returns amid a below-potential economy— due to deleveraging and restrictive fiscal policy—, unusually low inflation, and highly globalized supply chains. Today's environment offers a more favorable backdrop for commodities with less slack in the economy — and supportive fiscal policy —, the move to reshoring ...

3 March 2025 | 7:59PM GMT Thematic Stock Exposures A physical AI ecosystem Global tech heavyweights from Tesla to Nvidia are ramping up development of advanced AI technologies that enable machines to sense and interact with the physical world. In this special edition of Thematic Stock Exposures, we tap into the research of equity analysts across the globe to highlight companies that our teams believe are exposed to physical AI – from autonomous vehicles manufacturers and robot-makers to those providing the ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - Moutai and Laojiao are focusing on long-term sustainable growth, with Moutai targeting over Rmb100 billion in sales and a market cap of Rmb1 trillion in the long term [2] - Moutai series spirits have shown strong retail sales momentum during the Lunar New Year (LNY), achieving sales targets [2] - Laojiao's Luzhou Laojiao brand reached over Rmb10 billion in sales in 2024, while Guojiao 1573 continued to register over Rmb20 billion in sales [2] - The spirits industry is experiencing a channel transformation with an emphasis on consumer engagement and premiumization strategies [2] Summary by Sections Moutai Updates - Moutai's March shipment quota is approximately 6% of the full year, with Q1 quota expected to be 35-37% of the annual target [6] - The channel inventory level for Moutai stands at around 0.5 months [6] - Moutai's wholesale price for original cases decreased from Rmb2,240 to Rmb2,230, while unpacked prices fell from Rmb2,220 to Rmb2,200 [8][18] Laojiao Updates - Laojiao is focusing on channel profits and premiumization for 2025, aiming for sustainable growth [2] - The company hosted an annual distributor conference announcing significant sales achievements [2] Market Trends - Fen Wine recorded high single-digit percentage retail sales growth during LNY, outperforming the industry average [7] - Construction activity, which correlates with spirits consumption, has seen a decline in return-to-work progress post-LNY, with only 64.6% of projects resuming as of the fourth week post-LNY [7][9] Pricing Trends - Common Wuliangye's wholesale price remained stable at Rmb950, while Guojiao 1573's price was flat at Rmb870 [18] - The report highlights a general trend of price stability across various high-end liquor brands, with minor fluctuations noted [18][21]

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 3 March 2025 | 6:00PM EST USA: Trump Announces Intent to Move Forward With New Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China BOTTOM LINE: President Trump reiterated today (Mar. 3) that he would impose tariffs March 4 ...