US Economics Analyst Industry Winners and Losers from Potential Tariff Increases (Peng) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 3 March 2025 | 10:39AM EST Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng + ...

备受期待的两会将于 3 月 4 日开幕，值得关注的关键事件是李强总理将于 3 月 5 日上午发表的政府工作报告。本文回顾了两会前后中国资产的表现情况 — — 在股市方面，鉴于近期人工智能热潮过后市场出现盘整，且投资者仓位较低， 两会前的跌幅可能较浅。而由于市场对积极惊喜的预期门槛较低，会议结束后股 市有可能出现上涨行情。在利率方面，自上周五中国人民银行以少量逆回购操作 令市场感到不安后，资金紧张可能是比两会更重要的驱动因素，而且长期债券尚 未出现显著调整。历史数据表明，两会后 3 月份收益率曲线更有可能趋平，不 过这次情况可能有所不同。就外部背景而言，我们需要留意特朗普在贸易和国家 安全方面不断升级的强硬立场，这可能会对中国资产造成压力。 * 在财政赤字率的 "实际值" 一栏中，括号外和括号内的数字分别指官方预算 内财政赤字率和实际预算内财政赤字率。 资料来源：高盛投资研究部（GIR）两会前瞻 股市 —— 两会前跌幅较浅，两会后往往表现良好 上周，在科技、媒体和通信（TMT）板块 / 人工智能受益股表现出色之后，恒生 指数（HSI）出现了今年以来的首次单周下跌。然而，我们并未看到任何恐慌性 抛售的迹象；相反， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the China/HK market, with expectations of a broadening rally in the near future [3][7][14]. Core Insights - There has been a notable rotation from growth to value stocks, with no signs of panic selling in A-shares, suggesting a more orderly market environment [4][12]. - The Southbound trading remains robust, with net inflows averaging US$1.1 billion per day in February, marking the 20th consecutive month of net inflows [12][28]. - The report highlights that the A/H premium spread remains depressed, indicating potential for a catch-up play as tech strength drives H-outperformance [8][14]. - The report anticipates that small and mid-cap A-shares, particularly the CSI1000 index, will outperform due to higher exposure to AI and retail ownership [8][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Despite a recent pullback, year-to-date performance for HSTECH is +24.6%, HSCEI +15.5%, and CSI 1000 +5.2% [7]. - The report notes that the sharp outperformance in HK shares has pushed the A/H premium to levels rarely seen in the last four years [14]. Fund Flows - Hedge funds have increased their exposure to China, with their China allocation now at the 45th percentile, up from the 8th percentile in December [17][18]. - Mutual funds and global long-only funds have trimmed their China exposure, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor types [20]. Retail and Institutional Interest - Onshore retail margin trading has reached post-2015 highs, indicating increased interest in software and AI application-related stocks [28][31]. - The CSI1000 index is noted for its balanced exposure to software applications and infrastructure, making it a favorable investment choice [33].

风险。边缘。定位。表现。流动。 Following 以下 All Follows 所有跟随 Jamie Briggs Commentary 评论 APAC Execution Services: The Week Ahead APAC Flows Weekly - Mixed China flows ahead of NPC; Selling across East Asia Tech suppliers 亚太执行服务：下周展望 03 Mar 2025, 亚太资金流向周报 - NPC 前夕中国资金流向混合；东亚 科技供应商间的销售 | 食品 - 新动 亚太地区股票流动：关注点转向中国两会 3-Mar-2025, 00:21 2025 年 3 月 3 日，00:21 03 Mar 2025, 2025 年 3 月 3 日 HK & China Performance & Flows Summary Commentary 评论 香港与中国表现及资金流向概览 瑞士信贷期货周一市场前瞻 US 10 year yields broke lower on Friday to close at 4.2% with the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Snowflake (SNOW) and Salesforce (CRM), while Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is rated as "Sell" [9][11][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant momentum rollover in the market, particularly with a high beta momentum basket down 15% during the recent drawdown, largely influenced by NVIDIA's (NVDA) 8.5% drop, equating to a market cap loss of approximately $320 billion [4][6]. - The upcoming imposition of a 20% tariff by the US on certain imports is a key focus, with expectations of further market volatility [4][14]. - The report notes that hedge funds (HFs) are experiencing considerable pain, with a loss of over 250 basis points in performance over the five trading sessions leading up to NVIDIA's earnings report, marking the worst stretch since August [4][6]. ETF Flows - The report indicates that the Germany ETF (EWG) is experiencing its best month of flows since February 2023, while the IWM ETF is on track for its worst month since January 2024 [7]. - Emerging markets (EEM) have seen their first inflows since May 2024, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment [7]. Company-Specific Updates - Millrose Properties (MRP) is initiated with a "Buy" rating due to strong cash flows and attractive yield, projecting an average EPS growth of 11% from 2025 to 2027 [12]. - Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) is also rated "Buy" following strong Q4 results, driven by the successful launch of Rezdira [13]. - BP Plc (BP.L) is rated "Buy" as it focuses on capital discipline and net debt reduction [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for Asia-focused fundamental long/short managers, with performance metrics showing significant gains in February 2025 [4][7][10]. Core Insights - Asia-focused fundamental long/short managers are up +2.8% month-to-date (MTD) and +4.0% year-to-date (YTD), driven by strong performance in China and favorable asset selection [4][10]. - China-focused managers have seen a +3.9% MTD and +6.5% YTD increase, primarily due to concentrated longs and technology sector tilts [4][10]. - Japanese managers are slightly down -0.6% MTD, with YTD returns at +0.4%, reflecting mixed performance across sectors [4][10]. - The report highlights that Asia is currently the most overweight region compared to MSCI World AC weights, with net allocations at +6.2% overweight and gross allocations at +2.6% overweight [20]. Performance Metrics - Gross leverage for Asia fundamental long/short managers is at 190%, which is in the 80th percentile over the past five years, while net leverage is at 60%, in the 78th percentile [15]. - Asian equities are experiencing the highest monthly risk-on activity in three years, with notable inflows from China/Hong Kong and Japan [4][17]. - Japanese equities have seen moderate net selling, but hedge funds are increasing their gross allocation to 6.4% (94th percentile) and net allocation to 5.7% (99th percentile) [31]. Sector Highlights - The industrials sector is the most net bought sector in February, with significant buying activity across Japan and China [41]. - Financials is the second most net bought sector, with inflows from both China and Japan, although allocations remain at multi-year lows [44]. - Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) stocks have seen modest net buying, with the highest risk-on activity in the region, particularly in China and Hong Kong [47]. Regional Allocations - China and Hong Kong equities have experienced strong risk-on flows, with gross allocations increasing by +0.8% to 5.4% and net allocations increasing by +1.5% to 8.5% [25][22]. - Positioning in Emerging Markets (EM) Asia excluding China has remained relatively flat, with moderate buying in Korea and Taiwan offset by selling in India [36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Buy" on Sanhua, "Neutral" on Leaderdrive, Best Precision, and Moons' Electric based on valuation [8][15]. Core Insights - The technology inflection point for humanoid robots remains unclear due to insufficient capability in handling multiple generalized tasks, with a projected shipment of 76,000 units by 2027 and 502,000 units by 2032, which is slower than market expectations [8]. - Investment opportunities are currently seen in supply chain component names, particularly actuator assemblers and harmonic gear suppliers, due to higher product adoption certainty and stronger technology barriers [8]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Unitree's H1 humanoid robot demonstrates robust hardware performance and strong autonomous self-balancing but is limited by having only 19 degrees of freedom, making it incapable of complex tasks [2][4]. - The company anticipates that humanoid robots will not achieve the same efficiency as human workers within the next 2-3 years, with meaningful applications expected in 5-10 years [2]. Robot Dogs - Unitree's GO2 robot dog showcases advanced gait control algorithms, with the company holding a 60-70% market share in the global quadruped robot market and generating 50% of its revenue from overseas [3][4]. - The robot dogs are primarily used for patrol, inspection, and hazardous task substitution, with thousands of units shipped annually [3]. Technology Development - The humanoid robot has undergone significant technology iterations, improving performance metrics by 2-3 times with each generation [7]. - Current hardware design limitations necessitate further software and hardware iterations for large-scale applications [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved Core Insights - The National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) signed by US President Trump on February 21, 2025, aims to promote foreign investment while safeguarding national security interests, particularly concerning China [8][9] - The NSPM does not impose new restrictions on the investability of Chinese securities for US investors but highlights areas of potential policy uncertainty and increased portfolio flow restrictions [7][9] - US-China tensions are expected to resurface, especially as investor concerns regarding US tariffs have moderated recently [7][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of implementing strong macro policy stimulus to support domestic growth and drive sustainable equity gains [7][20] Summary by Sections What's Happened - The NSPM outlines measures to facilitate investments from allied nations while countering evolving threats associated with foreign investment [8] - The memorandum directs government agencies to work on regulatory processes related to foreign investments [8] What's New & What to Watch - The NSPM builds on previous actions taken by President Trump to protect American innovation [9] - It highlights potential areas for increased restrictions on US outbound investments into China, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [9][10] Investment Implications - The report indicates that while immediate legal consequences from the NSPM may not arise, it underscores the potential for rising US-China tensions, which could negatively impact Chinese equity performance [20] - The Chinese A-share market is expected to react more favorably to domestic policy stimulus compared to external policy risks [20][21] - The report forecasts that A shares may outperform H shares in the coming months, driven by domestic policy support and less sensitivity to external factors [21][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on equities and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on credit and commodities/cash [3][20]. Core Insights - Chinese equities have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and European markets in February, driven by a supportive stance from President Xi towards the private sector [2][3]. - Despite the positive performance of Chinese equities, domestic mutual fund and ETF flows have not matched this trend, indicating a cautious sentiment among local investors [2][11]. - The "Two Sessions" event scheduled for March 4th/5th is expected to confirm a supportive expansionary stance for domestic listings, which could further enhance A-share returns [3][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights a major reversal in equity performance, with low volatility and value stocks outperforming carry and momentum strategies [1]. - Asian markets, excluding Japan, and European equities have outperformed US equities, driven by improved sentiment regarding geopolitical issues and fiscal policies [1][2]. Sector Analysis - The technology and consumer discretionary sectors have shown strong performance in H-shares compared to A-shares, with notable gains in stocks like Alibaba (+65% YTD) and Xiaomi (+50% YTD) [3][9]. - The report indicates that sectors such as industrials, energy, and utilities have underperformed relative to IT and cyclicals [3][10]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on diversification across assets and regions due to lower expected returns and increased risks [3][20]. - There is a noted tactical risk of equity corrections due to bullish sentiment and elevated valuations, prompting a focus on hedges [3][20].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Eutelsat to Sell due to competitive pressures, execution risks, and rising debt burdens, while AT&T, BT, Cellnex, DT, Elisa, T-Mobile US, and Verizon are rated as Buy due to their strong market positions and satellite partnerships [37][48][50]. Core Insights - The number of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites is projected to increase from approximately 7,000 today to around 30,000 by 2030 and 78,000 by 2035, assuming most new satellite companies meet their launch targets [4][12][51]. - Satellite services are viewed as more of an opportunity than a threat to telecom operators, with the potential for augmented satellite-wireless services to enhance revenue for terrestrial telecom providers [5][31]. - Capacity constraints will limit the competitive threat from satellite broadband, with estimates suggesting that only about 8% of the US population could be served competitively by satellite broadband by 2035 [19][80]. Summary by Sections Satellite Launch Projections - If new satellite companies achieve their targets, LEO satellites could increase significantly, with projections of 30,000 by 2030 and 78,000 by 2035 [4][12][51]. - There are concerns regarding the feasibility of these targets due to regulatory, economic, and sustainability issues [15]. Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the risk to telecom operators from satellite communication services is limited due to capacity constraints and regulatory concerns [11][18]. - Existing wireless and broadband services are expected to outperform pure satellite services in most scenarios, particularly in urban areas [26]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights that satellite services could provide significant benefits in rural areas and for specific applications such as military and emergency services [26][31]. - Partnerships between terrestrial telecom providers and satellite operators are increasing, suggesting a trend towards complementary service offerings rather than direct competition [31][36]. Eutelsat's Position - Eutelsat is seen as vulnerable due to competitive pressures and execution risks, leading to a downgrade in its rating [37][48]. - The company faces challenges from new entrants like Starlink and Amazon's Project Kuiper, which are expected to disrupt the existing satellite market [37].